Arnold214 Posted May 9, 2011 Share Posted May 9, 2011 I missed the Spencer, SD tornado by 10 minutes. Saw the most amazing zits in that anvil, though. How do you guys rate our boys' chances in SD tomorrow? Better set-up? I think chances are a bit better tomorrow as the upper level ridge axis moves east. I will take a look at some 00z data in a few hours and try to throw some thoughts out there...but I wouldn't be surprised if the best area tomorrow is E/NE WY to the black hills with the 250mb jet ejecting out over that way if you can get the moisture back there. Sucky road options and iffy terrain...but I've done it. Perhaps they're on the storms near I-90 in SD right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bozart Posted May 9, 2011 Share Posted May 9, 2011 Perhaps they're on the storms near I-90 in SD right now. Speaking of which, there was a tornado report an hour ago, 8 miles SW of Presho in Lyman County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted May 9, 2011 Share Posted May 9, 2011 Speaking of which, there was a tornado report an hour ago, 8 miles SW of Presho in Lyman County. That thunderstorm has barely moved in like an hour to an hour and a half. Probably some major flooding going on under that sucker near 183. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 9, 2011 Share Posted May 9, 2011 We got to the SD cell but a little late. Saw some lowering not sure if it was anything. Tough day... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted May 9, 2011 Share Posted May 9, 2011 Not really sure what the deal is going to be tomorrow. Left exit region of the upper level jet should start to impinge on western SD between 00z and 06z which is where the western edge of the decent CAPE axis will probably extend. Should see stuff develop in Eastern WY over toward the black hills which should then move eastward onto the plains. So maybe a target area between Rapid City and Philip between 00z and 03z? Where are you guys staying tonight and what are your thoughts on tomorrow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 9, 2011 Share Posted May 9, 2011 We followed your suggestion. I'm not sure I understand the setup tomorrow completely. I'm already drifting off to the main event.. I think we all want to see the storms, but we do have to not place ourselves too far from the Wed target. Today was a solid chasing experience which I've not had before this trip and to lesser extent earlier. Not sure how much of use I got from it imagery wise, though there are numerous cool scenes out here every day. We did have a nice view of the southern severe storm in SD as the sun set behind it and then we watched and ultimately ended up in the second torn warned storm.. we were basically with the remnant couplet as it fell apart. This is the cell that fooled us briefly as it went up where we had recently left--we were probably already out of range of the SD brief tornado with the first cell and the dryline in NE was lame. Most of the towering cu of earlier went up and quickly fell apart at the base. This was was initially much thicker and blew up bigger than the others around us but ultimately did the same thing just in bigger fashion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted May 9, 2011 Share Posted May 9, 2011 We followed your suggestion. I'm not sure I understand the setup tomorrow completely. I'm already drifting off to the main event.. I think we all want to see the storms, but we do have to not place ourselves too far from the Wed target. Today was a solid chasing experience which I've not had before this trip and to lesser extent earlier. Not sure how much of use I got from it imagery wise, though there are numerous cool scenes out here every day. We did have a nice view of the southern severe storm in SD as the sun set behind it and then we watched and ultimately ended up in the second torn warned storm.. we were basically with the remnant couplet as it fell apart. This is the cell that fooled us briefly as it went up where we had recently left--we were probably already out of range of the SD brief tornado with the first cell and the dryline in NE was lame. Most of the towering cu of earlier went up and quickly fell apart at the base. This was was initially much thicker and blew up bigger than the others around us but ultimately did the same thing just in bigger fashion. Nice shot. Even the not so successful chase days always have something interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted May 9, 2011 Share Posted May 9, 2011 We followed your suggestion. I'm not sure I understand the setup tomorrow completely. I'm already drifting off to the main event.. I think we all want to see the storms, but we do have to not place ourselves too far from the Wed target. Today was a solid chasing experience which I've not had before this trip and to lesser extent earlier. Not sure how much of use I got from it imagery wise, though there are numerous cool scenes out here every day. We did have a nice view of the southern severe storm in SD as the sun set behind it and then we watched and ultimately ended up in the second torn warned storm.. we were basically with the remnant couplet as it fell apart. This is the cell that fooled us briefly as it went up where we had recently left--we were probably already out of range of the SD brief tornado with the first cell and the dryline in NE was lame. Most of the towering cu of earlier went up and quickly fell apart at the base. This was was initially much thicker and blew up bigger than the others around us but ultimately did the same thing just in bigger fashion. So I guess you're in Murdo then? Nice pic...definitely a cell that was struggling. The 700mb temp on the Omaha sounding was about +12c or so and that's generally too high to allow for deep convection inititation given the sfc temps. It was a bit cooler in the mid levels not too far to your north. The new 06z day outlook generally agrees with my earlier assessment with their 5% tor contour between Rapid City and Philip SD...so you may have a shot if you choose to stick around...then use Tuesday as a travel day to get back south for what looks to be a decent setup Wed (and thurs) across the southern/central plains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted May 9, 2011 Share Posted May 9, 2011 I still like I-35 in Oklahoma for Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bozart Posted May 9, 2011 Share Posted May 9, 2011 Rapid City's early-morning AFD anticipated "best surface based convection south of forecast area" today, while North Platte said, "It looks like majority of any convection that will fire will be north of the forecast area." Hmm... North Platte also noted, "Something to watch will be the location of the warm front and how the stratus north of the front behaves. The past several runs of the NAM have been consistent with keeping stratus across the northern portions of Nebraska through much of the day." North Platte also noted the possibility of "tornadoes in the vicinity of the front." So one play would be to hug the south edge of the stratus in an effort to stay in decent visibility, positioned near the warm front. Watch stratus trends on visible satellite, and watch surface-wind reports for where the best easterlies set up -- both good clues to the front's location. If practical, position yourselves where the warm front intersects the dryline later in the day. Standard disclosure: I could be wrong! Mets on the board, please dispute me if I am! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted May 9, 2011 Author Share Posted May 9, 2011 Rapid City's early-morning AFD anticipated "best surface based convection south of forecast area" today, while North Platte said, "It looks like majority of any convection that will fire will be north of the forecast area." Hmm... North Platte also noted, "Something to watch will be the location of the warm front and how the stratus north of the front behaves. The past several runs of the NAM have been consistent with keeping stratus across the northern portions of Nebraska through much of the day." North Platte also noted the possibility of "tornadoes in the vicinity of the front." So one play would be to hug the south edge of the stratus in an effort to stay in decent visibility, positioned near the warm front. Watch stratus trends on visible satellite, and watch surface-wind reports for where the best easterlies set up -- both good clues to the front's location. If practical, position yourselves where the warm front intersects the dryline later in the day. Standard disclosure: I could be wrong! Mets on the board, please dispute me if I am! That's pretty much what we've decided to do today, while also monitoring the upper-level jet for added instability. Luckily we're in such a position that we only really need to travel 2 hours at most from where we are now, so there's time to wait and think things through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 9, 2011 Share Posted May 9, 2011 Timmers crew just rolled into town. We haven't moved yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted May 9, 2011 Share Posted May 9, 2011 Timmers crew just rolled into town. We haven't moved yet. Does he have groupies? If you guys get yourself a magnetic label for the side of the car next year, 'American Weather Tornado Chase Team', could you guys have groupies? If we had a fund drive, I could toss in $25 for the cost of bolting some aluminum on the Prius (we'd need more) and we'd could give it a cool name. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 9, 2011 Share Posted May 9, 2011 Yeah he seems to have groupies. There is a chaser convention here now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted May 9, 2011 Share Posted May 9, 2011 Yeah he seems to have groupies. There is a chaser convention here now. If you have time head to the SD Badlands. Lovely area. You are pretty close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 9, 2011 Share Posted May 9, 2011 http://moby.to/wplmug Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted May 9, 2011 Share Posted May 9, 2011 http://moby.to/wplmug Cool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 9, 2011 Share Posted May 9, 2011 Lots of chasers out here today. Guess everyone is desperate. Looks like Timmer's crew was checking in to our hotel... storms should end up back in that area later. We're headed west away from the group just a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted May 9, 2011 Share Posted May 9, 2011 Lots of chasers out here today. Guess everyone is desperate. Looks like Timmer's crew was checking in to our hotel... storms should end up back in that area later. We're headed west away from the group just a bit. Can you get me an autograph? Please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted May 9, 2011 Share Posted May 9, 2011 Good ol' Murdo... stayed there at the Super 8 last year the night after the Bowdle wedge. Absolutely loved chasing in SD, as others have mentioned. Just watch out for gargantuan-size deer that like to gallop into the road at night and sideswipe your car, tripling the cost of your chase trip (long story). The HRRR is pretty consistent in showing supercellular initiation in your general area by 5-6pm. I really like you guys' chances of seeing something cool this afternoon... I'd be up there too if I didn't have so much crap going on this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 9, 2011 Share Posted May 9, 2011 Yeah, most of the hires models look good -- we're not far from Murdo still, but tucked out in hiding for now. Trying to get a little better idea on where to move, we seem to be in a generally good spot. Big sun hole building just to our north. The models kinda burned us yesterday so hopefully not again today... learned a few lessons there too maybe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormitecture Posted May 9, 2011 Share Posted May 9, 2011 It's been a great time out here. The spot we are sitting is a absolutely great view of the SD hills. The great thing about being out there is the awesome time you have even without storms. I posted a twit pic of it a little bit ago: http://www.twitpic.com/4vlsiq Bad cheap camera version, but you get the idea. Even yesterday, last night, I was enjoying seeing the two new guys to chasing enjoy their first night intercept of a very electric storm. Sure, we didn't get tons of video (but did get some which will be processed once home) but the experience was great. We pulled a near bust into a save by rushing north. I do apologize for not posting as much as the other guys...I'm more about the experience and not a huge posting member. I'll try a little more in the followings days, but no promises. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bozart Posted May 9, 2011 Share Posted May 9, 2011 Noth Platte radar in high-sensitivity mode, showing very obvious swirl right over Mullen. Quite a sight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 9, 2011 Share Posted May 9, 2011 the 5% torn is back Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted May 9, 2011 Share Posted May 9, 2011 Good ol' Murdo... stayed there at the Super 8 last year the night after the Bowdle wedge. Absolutely loved chasing in SD, as others have mentioned. Just watch out for gargantuan-size deer that like to gallop into the road at night and sideswipe your car, tripling the cost of your chase trip (long story). The HRRR is pretty consistent in showing supercellular initiation in your general area by 5-6pm. I really like you guys' chances of seeing something cool this afternoon... I'd be up there too if I didn't have so much crap going on this week. yeah, no kidding. I was up there chasing a few years back and a gray free-range horse decided to bolt across the road in front of us at 11pm somewhere between mission and murdo. What a disaster that would have been. lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted May 9, 2011 Share Posted May 9, 2011 The latest HRRR wants to go to town NW of pierre and N of Philip between 22z and 23z. FWIW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 9, 2011 Share Posted May 9, 2011 Something trying to fire off right on the WY border. We're heading west/northwest a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted May 9, 2011 Share Posted May 9, 2011 Something trying to fire off right on the WY border. We're heading west/northwest a bit. yeah, that's stuff trying to go on the higher terrain of the western black hills. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 9, 2011 Share Posted May 9, 2011 yeah, that's stuff trying to go on the higher terrain of the western black hills. Looks like the shortwave is kicking into eastern WY.. stuff should start to go up more in the next hour or so I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted May 9, 2011 Share Posted May 9, 2011 look at some of these obs west of the dryline Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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