Srain Posted May 6, 2011 Share Posted May 6, 2011 Snyder? Aspermont cell looked to weaken, but holding it's on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 6, 2011 Share Posted May 6, 2011 nice looking from here http://www.mobypicture.com/user/islivingston/view/9427790 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted May 7, 2011 Share Posted May 7, 2011 nice looking from here http://www.mobypictu...on/view/9427790 Where is the base? Oh yeah and.. back at home.. ... Strong thunderstorm to affect Anne Arundel and Prince Georgescounties... At 748 PM EDT... Doppler radar indicated a strong thunderstorm over Berwyn Heights... moving east at 20 mph. Locations impacted include Greenbelt and Crofton. Wind gusts of 40 to 50 mph can be expected with this storm. Lat... Lon 3910 7689 3901 7661 3898 7691 3902 7696 time... Mot... loc 2348z 255deg 16kt 3901 7692 Kramar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted May 7, 2011 Share Posted May 7, 2011 Aspermont is cooperating. I look forward to a sunset shot within the hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted May 7, 2011 Share Posted May 7, 2011 To be honest, I'm impressed with how helpful Ed is being and for the most part, he is staying on topic and not making every post about him. Keep up the good work, Ed! Oh and of course, good luck boys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 7, 2011 Share Posted May 7, 2011 Well, given the "chase" so far today was pretty successful. We targeted the only severe storm (?) in the region from 7 hours away. Hopefully it's a practice run for later. I've never been out with these guys locally in the MA but I have remarked to both them and others that they do always seem to hit the right spot whether or not chasing in the MA is worthwhile or not. I know a little myself too. The first cells we were on were super elevated as expected. Weird looking things at time.. second had very solid updraft areas and I really took in the difference in watching a storm out here compared to elsewhere. It's so nice to have a full field of view! Right around evening remnants to the north became more surface based and were not severe nor particularly strong perhaps.. but it spit out some lightning mainly within its core rain shaft. We got a pretty nice sunset out of it too. Even after the slow start I might be hooked now. Will get some photos out soon--gotta finish the forecast for D.C. tomorrow first... like I care what it's doing there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 7, 2011 Share Posted May 7, 2011 srain, the sunset.. a little more than an hour late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted May 7, 2011 Author Share Posted May 7, 2011 Here's my real Thank You note for Ed: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted May 7, 2011 Share Posted May 7, 2011 Tomorrow ...SRN PLAINS... CONDITIONAL THREAT FOR ISOLD SUPERCELL STORMS WILL EXIST MID-AFTN SUNDAY INTO THE MID-EVENING HOURS. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT A WEAK TROUGH/HEIGHT FALLS WILL GRAZE THE REGION DURING PEAK HEATING. FCST TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN EXCESS OF 100 DEG F WEST OF THE DRYLINE AND THERE MAY BE A SUFFICIENTLY DEEP CIRCULATION ALONG THE BOUNDARY FOR WEAKENING CINH/ISOLD TSTM INITIATION ACROSS WRN OK/NW TX. ROUGHLY 50 KTS OF CROSS-BOUNDARY DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND VERY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR VERY LARGE HAIL WITH ANY STORM THAT CAN FORM. A TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT EARLY IN THE EVENING...BUT LCL/S WILL BE SOMEWHAT HIGH. THE ZONE OF SVR THREAT WILL BE NARROW SINCE ANY SUSTAINED STORM WILL MOVE INTO AN INCREASINGLY CAPPED ENVIRONMENT OVER NCNTRL TX/CNTRL OK DURING THE LATE EVENING. MORE UNCERTAINTY EXISTS FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION ELSEWHERE ALONG THE DRYLINE FROM CNTRL KS TO THE E PARTS OF THE EDWARDS PLATEAU WHERE CAP WILL REMAIN VERY STRONG. Wednesday ECMWF WOULD LEND CREDENCE TO A HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR A HIGHER-END SVR EPISODE ON WEDNESDAY AS PRIMARY TROUGH EJECTS INTO THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS. SFC LOW SHOULD REMAIN ON THE CO/KS BORDER...ALLOWING DRYLINE TO SET UP FROM W KS INTO NW TX. COOLING MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND ASCENT/MOISTENING SHOULD WEAKEN THE CAP AND ORGANIZED STORMS SHOULD EVOLVE WEDNESDAY AFTN/EVE ACROSS CNTRL KS...WRN/CNTRL OK AND NCNTRL/NWRN TX WITH ALL FACETS OF SVR WEATHER POSSIBLE. One ointment for the fly on Wednesday, GFS has some high PW predicted, around 1.75" in the Southern Plains, I would link the forecast maps I get from the Utah.edu weather site, but it isn't working, but AccuWx PPV confirms Summer-ish PWS in Texas and Oklahoma. Ellinwood would know better than I would, but I fear HP cells and less than perfect photo ops. DFW sounding from NIU attached. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 7, 2011 Share Posted May 7, 2011 We're trying to decide if we should play the warm front or dryline next few days. SPC seems more bullish with the warm front.Models seem to agree though the NAM initiates both tomorrow and monday on the dryline. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted May 7, 2011 Share Posted May 7, 2011 We're trying to decide if we should play the warm front or dryline next few days. SPC seems more bullish with the warm front.Models seem to agree though the NAM initiates both tomorrow and monday on the dryline. By warm front, are you talking Nebraska and points North? If you did that, could you get back to Oklahoma by Wednesday afternoon? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 7, 2011 Share Posted May 7, 2011 By warm front, are you talking Nebraska and points North? If you did that, could you get back to Oklahoma by Wednesday afternoon? I think so. Go up into Kansas today then further north tomorrow/Mon -- move back south Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted May 7, 2011 Share Posted May 7, 2011 Just looking at 850 mb temps on the free ECMWF.int site, 24 to 28ºC temps in the Southern Plains next few days would seem to back up the idea of heading North. Thursday 0Z/Wednesday looks good, a 30 to 40 knot 850 mb jt, trough going negative, and 850 temps at/below 20ºC along the I-35 corridor in OK. I just had a thought, maybe you'll see the monster traffic jams, the Dominator, and the TIV on Wednesday. I hope we get some YouTube vids out of this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted May 7, 2011 Share Posted May 7, 2011 Had a bedroom shaking, wake you out of your slumber elevated hailer last night at 3am. My chase went well...I followed it out to my living room, where I watched it deposit a layer of hail across my parking lot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cory Posted May 7, 2011 Share Posted May 7, 2011 I see AT&T is living up to its commercials again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted May 7, 2011 Share Posted May 7, 2011 We're trying to decide if we should play the warm front or dryline next few days. SPC seems more bullish with the warm front.Models seem to agree though the NAM initiates both tomorrow and monday on the dryline. So, anyway, a prelim look at the setup for tomorrow shows two potential areas like you said...the warm front and the dryline. Obviously one concern with the dryline is the potential that storms won't initiate at all (too capped - the dreaded "blue sky bust"). Secondly, if one or two storms do go along or east of the dryline, high LCL's may be a concern since SFC temps are forecast to be pretty warm. This may preclude a low-level environment conducive for tornadoes. However...on the flip side...if you are able to initiate a storm or two...they will be absolute bombs with the potential for very large hail and picturesque rotating updrafts. And, there's is the chance for a tor if you can keep the temps in the 80s east of the dryline. The warm front holds more hope for convective initiation...on the edge of the cap up that way. Still, mid and upper level winds are progged to be a bit suckier up that way so you could end up with more disorganized stuff despite decent low level shear and a better chance at initiation. Still under the upper level (250-300mb) ridge up north (KS, NE, southern SD)...with 250mb winds of only 25 kt...rain will likely fall back into the storm updrafts and make things frustrating. I've never really had much luck in my 13 years of chasing with very weak jet-level winds. Tough call at this point, but I think if it were me I'd probably risk a blue sky bust and play the dryline somewhere between central/west-central OK southward to around Breckinridge, TX. Cap could hold (perhaps even a 60-70% chance that it will), but height falls associated with approaching trof as well as sfc heating could ignite one or two nasty supercells that would probably look better than something anywhere in the KS to Northern Nebr corridor. Better storm-top relative flow down on the dryline would likely yield better storm organization and perhaps less HP structure. This is my EARLY take. Do what you guys feel is right. Either way, either chase option has it's issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 7, 2011 Share Posted May 7, 2011 Thx Mike. Hard to argue with that much. Some vacillating but dryline sounds more pleasing overall if possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted May 7, 2011 Share Posted May 7, 2011 Thx Mike. Hard to argue with that much. Some vacillating but dryline sounds more pleasing overall if possible. Decision-making is never easy when it's not an outbreak situation and there are two potential target areas. It's always a tough pill to swallow when you choose one spot only to have tornadoes happen in the other. At least the 00z ECMWF looks like it tries to ignite the dryline in the midst of 50-75kt winds at 300mb...as opposed to igniting storms in the Valentine, NE to Des Moines corridor in the face of 15-30kt jet level winds. We'll see how the 12z run handles the situation in a couple of hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cory Posted May 7, 2011 Share Posted May 7, 2011 Decision-making is never easy when it's not an outbreak situation and there are two potential target areas. It's always a tough pill to swallow when you choose one spot only to have tornadoes happen in the other. At least the 00z ECMWF looks like it tries to ignite the dryline in the midst of 50-75kt winds at 300mb...as opposed to igniting storms in the Valentine, NE to Des Moines corridor in the face of 15-30kt jet level winds. We'll see how the 12z run handles the situation in a couple of hours. I'm hoping for some action in Valentine or anywhere near here. I've seen three lightning strikes since I got here in March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted May 7, 2011 Share Posted May 7, 2011 I'm hoping for some action in Valentine or anywhere near here. I've seen three lightning strikes since I got here in March. Valentine is great in June and sometimes july. Big SEwd moving mofo's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 7, 2011 Share Posted May 7, 2011 Here's a shot of the severe warned cell northwest of Abilene yesterday. A few more at link (though most will be processed later). Two storm shots are quick stitches of multiple images: http://www.ianlivingston.com/2011/05/07/on-the-road-again-headed-to-the-oklahomakansas-border/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted May 7, 2011 Share Posted May 7, 2011 Upgrade to slight risk and 5% tornado probs in IL/IN...you'd never make it in time anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bozart Posted May 7, 2011 Share Posted May 7, 2011 I'd chalk today up to travel, north-bound, all day and most of the evening. Of course, no one asked me...and I could be wrong... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted May 7, 2011 Share Posted May 7, 2011 I'd chalk today up to travel, north-bound, all day and most of the evening. Of course, no one asked me...and I could be wrong... This. I'm south-biased, and I'd still favor central NE for tomorrow for a much greater chance of initiation. Though this is a tough system to forecast, I feel like the northern play will be best every day through Tuesday, with Wednesday being the best shot for KS/OK to finally come through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted May 7, 2011 Author Share Posted May 7, 2011 We decided to go ahead and get as far north as possible today so we can play in NE tomorrow. The dryline is tempting, but even though the NE might not be as photogenic, the main goal is to get some tornadoes. Ian's at the wheel now... if you don't hear back from us again you'll know why. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted May 7, 2011 Share Posted May 7, 2011 If you're still around Thursday, GFS seems to like some action near ACT despite the Big Show having moved on. Gentle breezes below 600 mb and fairly high cloud bases, but some fat CAPE above 750 mb level. No directional shear to speak of, but (almost) 0 to 60 (knots) speed shear in the fat CAPE area, and the any storms will have decent SR inflow despite 10 knot near surface winds. if you're still on vacation and in Texas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted May 7, 2011 Share Posted May 7, 2011 You guys are gonna have to wait a few more days for anything it looks like, but then it'll get good. If I was y'all I would just chill and wait for it. Wednesday is starting to look like a good setup somewhere in the upper Midwest, I'll go chasing if it's a solid moderate or higher. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bozart Posted May 7, 2011 Share Posted May 7, 2011 From the afternoon AFD out of North Platte, less than a half-hour old: SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS DOMINATE THE FIRST TWO DAYS /SUNDAY AND MONDAY/ AS A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS INTO THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE UNITED STATES. THIS WILL INDUCE SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT IN NORTHEAST COLORADO SUNDAY...WITH WARM MOIST AIR RIDING NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW ACROSS KANSAS AND NEBRASKA. A DRY LINE IS EXPECTED TO MIX EAST INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA SUNDAY AFTERNOON...AND BE THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE DRY LINE WILL EXTEND ALONG OR JUST EAST OF A VALENTINE TO NORTH PLATTE TO MCCOOK LINE BY LATE AFTERNOON. SOUNDINGS INDICATE VERY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS NEAR AND JUST EAST OF THE DRY LINE...WITH CAPPING INVERSION NEARLY GONE BY 400 PM CDT. A SUBTLE WAVE IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SHOULD HELP TO INITIATE CONVECTION...WITH STORMS QUICKLY GROWING INTO SUPERCELLS. LARGE HAIL /POSSIBLE QUITE LARGE/ APPEARS TO BE THE MAIN THREAT...BUT DAMAGING WIND GUSTS COULD ALSO OCCUR. AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT DURING THE EVENING AS THE LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES...AND THIS WOULD BE MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR NORTH OF A BARTLETT TO BURWELL LINE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted May 7, 2011 Author Share Posted May 7, 2011 Thanks for the update, Bozart... good info Looks like we're going to hit I-70 and make a quick jog E to the nearest town for the night. Then it'll be up to I-80 tomorrow and we'll look around for a target. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted May 7, 2011 Share Posted May 7, 2011 there's quite a cap anywhere south of south dakota tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.