Chasecation!

[aslkahuna]

I usually planned my Plains chases for late May into early June with the Base of Operations in Amarillo-although we never saw any BIG tornadoes we did have smaller ones and I considered the chases successful. Here in AZ during the monsoon it's always a game of choosing from a plethora of storms but I have scored the Holy Grail of Arizona chases-a tornado on a number of occasions. A lot of of our monsoon storms rotate but usually the parameters support hail or organized severe in terms of wind. But to have seen cyclonic rotation pass overhead as I have or watch as the rotating wall cloud swings a large funnel into full sunlight are among my AZ experiences.

Steve

[bronxx]

Perhaps long-term (decadal or longer) pattern changes could prove my first post to be unwise. But it does seem as if, at least over the past 10-15 years, my statement about the late May trough mid June period has held true in almost all cases. You'd be hard-pressed to find a year when Eric Nguyen or Mike Hollingshead failed to capture a handful of spectacular stormscapes.

To have the greatest probability of tornado intercepts in any given year, one has to be "available" to chase for the WHOLE period from April thru June. Some that are available (have no other job they have to be at during any of this period) live in the Plains, and go out chasing when (and usually only when) conditions are at least fairly good for some development. Others watch the pattern from afar and fly out to the general target area for those several times each year when the set up looks at least moderately favorable for a couple or few days of chasing. Some are running a storm tour business and have clients thru that whole period; so they have to be out chasing on all days when even only a few supercells might pop up.

Most chasers have to schedule a one, two, three week vacation and hope a relatively favorable pattern (trough in the west, etc.) sets up during their vacation.

The guys you mentioned above ( Eric passed away several years ago), are out chasing during almost every decent set up from April thru June every year. This combined with their honed skills, made successful interception quite likely at least once or twice every year.

By statistics, I would also choose the last two weeks of May as being the "most likely" time for favorable set-ups. But that is simply playing t he percentages. Some years the most active period is in April (like this year..) Some years in mid-May, some years in June.

Other considerations, if your vacation time is limited, are the literal crowds one has to contend with during mid-late May, the area you prefer chasing in (some prefer the Dakotas which are more often most active in June), and the slower forward motion usually encountered later in the season. The outbreak in April this year had storms moving 40-70 mph. Considering this, I repeat how amazing it is that so many spectacular videos were captured.

The morning of that outbreak the SPC convective outllook had an area circled (mostly in N. Alabama and TN) with a 45% probability of a tornado occurring within 25 miles. I have never seen that high a % before (has anyone reading this ever seen it that high before.?) Moderate risk days often have a 10% area. 45% was just unreal. Well, actually it proved quite real. I would say if you see a 45% probability over your house one morning: head for hills (if you don't want to die). But, not the hills of Tennessee or N. Alabama.

[Ellinwood]

The morning of that outbreak the SPC convective outllook had an area circled (mostly in N. Alabama and TN) with a 45% probability of a tornado occurring within 25 miles. I have never seen that high a % before (has anyone reading this ever seen it that high before.?) Moderate risk days often have a 10% area. 45% was just unreal. Well, actually it proved quite real. I would say if you see a 45% probability over your house one morning: head for hills. But, not the hills of Tennessee or N. Alabama.

Getting OT now, but...

4/6/06 and 4/7/06 both had High Risk days. The 6th had 30% TOR risk, and the 7th had a 60% TOR risk:

This was kind of brought up earlier and got embedded deep within one of the 4/27/11 severe threads somewhere... not sure which one.

[bronxx]

4/6/06 and 4/7/06 both had High Risk days. The 6th had 30% TOR risk, and the 7th had a 60% TOR risk:

This was kind of brought up earlier and got embedded deep within one of the 4/27/11 severe threads somewhere... not sure which one.

Wow. 60%. You might as well just commit suicide to avoid the flight and subsequent crash landing.

What actually happened on the 7th in that 60% area and nearby?

------

edit:

Here, I answered my own question, somewhat:

[Bozart]

These.

If you live in the area finding a tornado or several every year may not be an impossible task

To have the greatest probability of tornado intercepts in any given year, one has to be "available" to chase for the WHOLE period from April thru June.

[stormitecture]

Actually, I've had most success in two week (or slightly over) years. The statistical peak in the good nav areas is more like May 17 to June 1. This was the worst year by far, and looks to continue (albeit some folks clammering about something on the GFS way out...May 31 I think). If I had more resources I would return, but only as a specific quality and reliable forecast for two or three days was OBVIOUS. I do need certain footage for a film project, that at this point may have to be pushed back to a 2013 release.

The kudos goes to Mark and Ian for putting up with my issues and outbursts. I felt a bit stressed during this trip, but that mostly was because of the weather and my worries about my business. Three of us got along the best of anyone I've spent that amount days with in a row with nearly no individual time. The three of us did pair up great on the chase and I'm convinced we certainly would have been one of the highlight teams/chasers of the season had more storms been there.

I rested more today, and getting more into the busy part of the post chase (processing pictures, calculating data, etc.). One stat I can share is the mileage. We started at 107,699 on the cars odometer and I ended with 114,104 that equals out to 6405 miles over the 13 days. Ian has slightly more because of the rental return and some other stuff. But the 6405 divided up by 13 days comes out to 492 average per day....which is a lot...but if you remove the 1200 miles to and from (and two days from the average) you get that's more like 4005 over 11 days and comes out to 364 per day....way under the average...and reflective of the slow period.

[Ed Lizard]

I usually planned my Plains chases for late May into early June with the Base of Operations in Amarillo-although we never saw any BIG tornadoes we did have smaller ones and I considered the chases successful. Here in AZ during the monsoon it's always a game of choosing from a plethora of storms but I have scored the Holy Grail of Arizona chases-a tornado on a number of occasions. A lot of of our monsoon storms rotate but usually the parameters support hail or organized severe in terms of wind. But to have seen cyclonic rotation pass overhead as I have or watch as the rotating wall cloud swings a large funnel into full sunlight are among my AZ experiences.

Steve

Isn't the cap getting a little strong around AMA by June 1? I would have thought Dodge City or thereabouts.

But I've never chased.

[Ian]

Isn't the cap getting a little strong around AMA by June 1? I would have thought Dodge City or thereabouts.

But I've never chased.

When I was younger I always wanted to go in June.. LP storms if nothing else. Then again my first yr in TX was 1995.. Quite a good one in the Panhandle.

[Bozart]

Isn't the cap getting a little strong around AMA by June 1? I would have thought Dodge City or thereabouts.

Colorado and Nebraska can be very good in June. Colorado chasing is under-appreciated.

[brettjrob]

When I was younger I always wanted to go in June.. LP storms if nothing else. Then again my first yr in TX was 1995.. Quite a good one in the Panhandle.

Panhandle chasing fans (of which I count myself one) have been waiting for a repeat of that year ever since. Absolutely phenomenal streak of days from June 2-8.

As for Ed's question, I don't think you can necessarily place a time limit on when the cap becomes too strong over a given location. For one thing, being farther W helps prolong the season as much as being farther N, in many cases. Some of the greatest Panhandle outbreaks and chase days have occurred in June. In general, many late-season setups are subtle from a synoptic standpoint and hinge on leftover boundaries and other mesoscale details; these sort of setups can happen anywhere from C TX (think Jarrell) to the Canadian border.

[Ian]

Here's a compilation of the SD chase from my vid. Tested the limits of my entry-lvl camera, though light would probably be an issue for any at a point. Nothing fancy.. still using a free editor for now, plus it was all handheld. Not amazing given the proliferation of tornado vids etc these days, but you take what you can get on limited time. Next time! Will do more clips etc down the line, though they might be sunsets etc.

link with hd options: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=640GhzpDwqc

[stormitecture]

To wrap up one story that was part of the trip (at the end).

I'm a big, big proponent of making sure the car is in 100% running order with all prep work. I spent the extra money having the head gaskets, heavy duty radiator, new radiator hoses, thermostat, etc. done...at a cost totaling around $3300. That is a lot for an old car, but having it done and knowing it's done is better than taking a chance on something. I did buy new tires during the early part of the trip. I was aiming to connect with someone in Hutchinson, KS with some used Michelin HydroEdge tires (one of the best two tires you can buy for mixed chasing...including snow and ice). That didn't happen so I had to drop another $668 (the guys did throw in some cash toward that too...thanks again guys) for a brand new set after I connect with the person. Used tires aren't really a needed thing since I'm hoping to upgrade in a year or so (and dream I could get a Ford Raptor).

So...after being up in South Dakota, the car started a small sputter in the drive. I blamed the gas because I had previously been warned about it. A octane boost bottle in the tank seemed to work initially. The next day the issue returned, and was obvious it was more than the gas, but what. In the end we pulled the wires and looked at the plugs. Replaced a plug and that seem to solve it. So we continued again, thinking the issue was resolved. But then on May 11, the car ran fine until the issue returned with obvious problems toward the end of the day. We returned to Great Bend it was now I new I had to replace the ignition wire (which was previously discussed, but patched).

We got the rental as a means to make sure Ian and Mark wouldn't be stranded (because even though I was confident in fixing the issue, I wasn't sure how long it would take). I can do almost any repair on a car in the field, but parts were the issue here. Imports in middle American aren't the best idea (but SD proved Subaru AWD kicks a$$). We did go to Wichita the next day...I got the parts (which were put on hold) and I did the wire swap in 10 minutes (I didn't even wait for the engine to cool) and was done and regrouped with the guys as they exchanged the car.

Now home and having looked over the car, it seems that the repair guy that did the head gaskets screwed up with the wires and plugs (or they were piss poor parts). The car is still doing well, although the steering pump seems to be going some. I'm gonna replace it. I'm also going to do all the remaining plugs and wires the right way (with anti-seize...which was NOT done by the mechanic on the spark plug's threads).

It was truly a minor issue, but as chasing goes, often compounded by issues because of time compression, already high stress levels, and more. I did come prepared with some basic tools, but this issue of getting parts actually threw me a curve ball. Wasn't prepared for that at all.

So in the end, drove back all the way home just fine, and just making things better (even though they are fine already). The next thing (since it doesn't look like I'll return to the plains this year...unless I find someone willing to pay all the gas and hotel costs) it's time to even start thinking about hurricane season. I'm a tad early, but I got filming needs I have to complete if I want a planned film project to be complete by either end of 2012 or shortly after tornado season 2013.

[The Dude]

Jason,

What's the film project?

[Ed Lizard]

Tornadoes to chase Ian?

[Ian]

Tornadoes to chase Ian?

Colorado is a bit far to go today.

[Ed Lizard]

Colorado is a bit far to go today.

I saw the TWC storm stories on La Plata...

...MID ATLANTIC...

MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED UPPER CIRCULATION

CENTER OVER NC TRACKING NORTHWARD. THIS FEATURE WILL AFFECT THE MID

ATLANTIC STATES TODAY AND PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR A FEW STRONG/SEVERE

STORMS. SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS AHEAD OF THE UPPER

SYSTEM...COUPLED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S AND DEEP NEAR-SATURATED

CONDITIONS WILL YIELD A SEMI-TROPICAL ENVIRONMENT. A FEW BREAKS IN

THE CLOUDS ARE LIKELY TO FORM BY LATE MORNING FROM NORTHERN NC INTO

CENTRAL VA...WHERE ONLY SLIGHT DAYTIME HEATING MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO

ENCOURAGE SCATTERED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW

SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR FOR SOME POTENTIAL FOR WEAK

SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE THE MAIN

THREAT...BUT AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

[Ellinwood]

Ed, we're no longer on our chasecation... please take Mid-Atlantic severe discussion to the Mid-Atlantic forum.

[Ian]

I saw the TWC storm stories on La Plata...

La Plata was more like a setup out west with a low to the northwest. 5% here is like 1% in the Plains. They seem kinda optimistic given the clouds, numerous showers expected etc. Tho now that I've got the bug I may go Mid Atlantic chasing sometime.

[The Dude]

La Plata was more like a setup out west with a low to the northwest. 5% here is like 1% in the Plains. They seem kinda optimistic given the clouds, numerous showers expected etc. Tho now that I've got the bug I may go Mid Atlantic chasing sometime.

In the (unlikely) event I don't have any work/family commitments, I'm happy to provide the chase vehicle.

[Ian]

In the (unlikely) event I don't have any work/family commitments, I'm happy to provide the chase vehicle.

So, see ya never?

I'm sure it will pass but all I can think about right now is going back. If I didn't have a job I'd be on my way back now or would have not left. Urgh. Hopefully we have a June 08 ahead.

[Ed Lizard]

Ed, we're no longer on our chasecation... please take Mid-Atlantic severe discussion to the Mid-Atlantic forum.

Less a discussion on Mid-Atlantic severe than on the tornadoes coming to see Ian after his chasecation.

I spend little time in the MA subforum...

[Ellinwood]

Less a discussion on Mid-Atlantic severe than on the tornadoes coming to see Ian after his chasecation.

I spend little time in the MA subforum...

>.>

[Ed Lizard]

>.>

http://www.americanw...d/page__st__756

Did I mention I'm not a big MA forum reader? And I don't know if I have ever posted there.

That said, if I see a tor warned cell I may drop in to visit. But the only people that do severe right are the people in the 5 time zone forum.

[Ed Lizard]

Anyway, Ian's great adventure has been the highlight of this forum since Boxing Day, and its hard to let it go....

[Ian]

Anyway, Ian's great adventure has been the highlight of this forum since Boxing Day, and its hard to let it go....

Wait till Kush bags a few tornadoes in his backyard later this week. The tropiclique will be so proud.

[The Dude]

So, see ya never?

Right now June is looking somewhat sane, so if there's a good threat, I may be able to swing something.

Wait till Kush bags a few tornadoes in his backyard later this week. The tropiclique will be so proud.

[stormitecture]

Jason,

What's the film project?

I'm working on a idea that is a film with lots of real shots, but has some fictional based storyline to it. 80% reality, 15% fiction, 5% WTF!

It's a short film (about all I'm capable of right now...before film school). This chase trip was suppose to have some of the footage. I was taking the advantage of having two people who had never been chasing out west before too, capturing that excitement and fear. Ian and Mark are not part of the project.

I don't even really have a script for it, as it's a loosely based idea right now....just lots of notes and guides to gather footage.

[Isopycnic]

I'm working on a idea that is a film with lots of real shots, but has some fictional based storyline to it. 80% reality, 15% fiction, 5% WTF!

It's a short film (about all I'm capable of right now...before film school). This chase trip was suppose to have some of the footage. I was taking the advantage of having two people who had never been chasing out west before too, capturing that excitement and fear. Ian and Mark are not part of the project.

I don't even really have a script for it, as it's a loosely based idea right now....just lots of notes and guides to gather footage.

You can get Helen Hunt to play the romantic interest.

[The Dude]

I'm working on a idea that is a film with lots of real shots, but has some fictional based storyline to it. 80% reality, 15% fiction, 5% WTF!

It's a short film (about all I'm capable of right now...before film school). This chase trip was suppose to have some of the footage. I was taking the advantage of having two people who had never been chasing out west before too, capturing that excitement and fear. Ian and Mark are not part of the project.

I don't even really have a script for it, as it's a loosely based idea right now....just lots of notes and guides to gather footage.

Sounds cool! It's like the Blair Witch Tornado! I look forward to seeing it.

BTW, if you need any help with storyboarding, my sister (who I think you know) is a storyboard artist. She actually just finished up a project with one of the Blair Witch guys.

[stormitecture]

Sounds cool! It's like the Blair Witch Tornado! I look forward to seeing it.

BTW, if you need any help with storyboarding, my sister (who I think you know) is a storyboard artist. She actually just finished up a project with one of the Blair Witch guys.

I keep it in mind...cool to know.

Not really like, but somewhat like BW. There more stuff online that has inspired me. Wouldn't mind the net result however...but so would about every other new filmmaker.

Still not overly impressed with the chase action thus far from since the end of our trip. This is certainly turning out to be THE WORST chase season ever. Still time to go of course. Not sure how the other guys feel, but I'm not disappointed with our trip, action wise, with what I've seen since.