Ed Lizard Posted May 2, 2011 Share Posted May 2, 2011 Driving to Kansas today... some plans in Wichita early tomorrow. Hopefully things will look a bit better for Friday. I'd have done Nawlins for a day or two. Maybe fun in Wichita on Friday... For being 4 days out, seems to have some potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted May 2, 2011 Share Posted May 2, 2011 I'd have done Nawlins for a day or two. Maybe fun in Wichita on Friday... For being 4 days out, seems to have some potential. low level winds aren't that strong... good for a derecho, though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted May 2, 2011 Share Posted May 2, 2011 low level winds aren't that strong... good for a derecho, though Maybe we'll get meso boundary interactions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 2, 2011 Share Posted May 2, 2011 I'll just be happy to get out of this cold rain we've been in off and on most of the time since we left. Cruising north through OK now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted May 2, 2011 Share Posted May 2, 2011 KTOP and KICT AFDs not super confident, but I'm glass quarter full/silver lining optimist of at least one AmWx tornado or sheet-metal dinging hail storm. THURSDAY WILL BE COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT BUT ANOTHER SYSTEM ISFORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY FRIDAY. WINDS WILL QUICKLY TURN BACK TO SOUTHERLY IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM WITH SOME CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ALONG THE INCOMING COLD FRONT BY LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THE BEST CHANCES APPEAR TO BE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN FORECAST AREA WITH THIS SYSTEM GIVEN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO DECENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. GFS IS ON THE AGGRESSIVE SIDE WITH QPF AND WOULD BE CAUTIOUS USING THAT SOLUTION AT THE PRESENT TIME. THE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY AND BEYOND HAS SOME SUBSTANTIAL QUESTIONS INVOLVING EVEN THE GENERAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SOME PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL DURING THE WEEKEND BUT CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND STRENGTH OF A WEEKEND STORM SYSTEM IS LOW AT BEST. AT THIS TIME...HAVE GONE WITH A MAINLY DRY FORECAST DUE TO THIS LACK OF CONFIDENCE IN THE GUIDANCE. EXPECT THE DETAILS TO BECOME MORE APPARENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS SOME AGREEMENT IN A WARMING TREND BY EARLY NEXT WEEK IN ADVANCE OF A POTENTIALLY MORE SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. Which one is Ian? http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sLXlwKbLjDM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SEMIweather Posted May 2, 2011 Share Posted May 2, 2011 I bet you guys see something good in KS/OK/TX starting around Friday. Pattern looks to get more active for sure. Good luck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted May 3, 2011 Author Share Posted May 3, 2011 Just got some stills processed from the Memphis cell we intercepted yesterday... Just heading into Wichita now... a couple of things planned for tomorrow, with some relaxation time until Friday. Wednesday's system would be nice if the forecast dewpoints weren't in the 40s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted May 3, 2011 Share Posted May 3, 2011 A bit of hope after all... ALTHOUGH THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE GUIDANCE...THEY DO AGREE THAT BEGINNING ON SUN/D6...A LARGER SCALE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE WRN STATES...WITH RIDGING DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS STATES. THIS WOULD PORTEND A GREATER SEVERE THREAT...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF 3-4 CONSECUTIVE DAYS OF SIGNIFICANT SEVERE DEVELOPING FROM THE PLAINS STATES INTO THE MIDWEST BEGINNING ON MON/D7 INTO TUE/D8 AND LIKELY EXTENDING INTO D9. IF TREND IN MODEL GUIDANCE PERSISTS...SEVERE RISK AREAS WILL LIKELY BE FORTHCOMING IN SUBSEQUENT D4-8 OUTLOOKS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted May 3, 2011 Share Posted May 3, 2011 A bit of hope after all... ALTHOUGH THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE GUIDANCE...THEY DO AGREE THAT BEGINNING ON SUN/D6...A LARGER SCALE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE WRN STATES...WITH RIDGING DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS STATES. THIS WOULD PORTEND A GREATER SEVERE THREAT...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF 3-4 CONSECUTIVE DAYS OF SIGNIFICANT SEVERE DEVELOPING FROM THE PLAINS STATES INTO THE MIDWEST BEGINNING ON MON/D7 INTO TUE/D8 AND LIKELY EXTENDING INTO D9. IF TREND IN MODEL GUIDANCE PERSISTS...SEVERE RISK AREAS WILL LIKELY BE FORTHCOMING IN SUBSEQUENT D4-8 OUTLOOKS. Yeah I am really liking the model consistency across the board for a seasonally strong trough to develop out west late in the weekend and slowly shift it east into early next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 3, 2011 Share Posted May 3, 2011 One good sys will do I suppose. Bright blue skies, dry/chilly this morn in Wichita. May or March? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SEMIweather Posted May 3, 2011 Share Posted May 3, 2011 One good sys will do I suppose. Bright blue skies, dry/chilly this morn in Wichita. May or March? Yeah it's been a little bit too cold out here for my liking lately...luckily that will change as we get into this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 4, 2011 Share Posted May 4, 2011 We saw tornadoes today! Smoke tornadoes in a big fire we found in Kansas. TWC local forecast has sun as far as the eye can see. :axe: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted May 4, 2011 Share Posted May 4, 2011 We saw tornadoes today! Smoke tornadoes in a big fire we found in Kansas. TWC local forecast has sun as far as the eye can see. :axe: A lot are hyping the pattern starting May 8th, hang in there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 4, 2011 Share Posted May 4, 2011 A lot are hyping the pattern starting May 8th, hang in there. I hope so.. the fire was pretty cool. We saw probably 10-15 smokenadoes and some pyrocu. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted May 4, 2011 Share Posted May 4, 2011 I'm waiting for the day when you guys are down there with nothing and we get pummeled back here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted May 4, 2011 Share Posted May 4, 2011 Gah... really rough pattern for you guys. You can maybe take solace in the fact that it wasn't so much a bad selection of days on your part as simply a bad year overall for the best chasing areas on the Plains. This has been the worst early-mid season I've witnessed yet for areas W of I-35, and that's saying a LOT after 2006 and 2009. Really hoping the Sunday-Tuesday period pans out for all of our sakes, despite moisture and capping issues already rearing their ugly heads on the MR models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 4, 2011 Share Posted May 4, 2011 Gah... really rough pattern for you guys. You can maybe take solace in the fact that it wasn't so much a bad selection of days on your part as simply a bad year overall for the best chasing areas on the Plains. This has been the worst early-mid season I've witnessed yet for areas W of I-35, and that's saying a LOT after 2006 and 2009. Really hoping the Sunday-Tuesday period pans out for all of our sakes, despite moisture and capping issues already rearing their ugly heads on the MR models. Yeah, it's been kind of ugly. I was hoping it was about to back into the area rather than just cut off. It's hard to imagine the GFS scenario without some good storms, but you never know. Explaining why I came to Kansas to NOT see tornadoes might be harder than explaining why I came here to see them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted May 4, 2011 Share Posted May 4, 2011 I hope so.. the fire was pretty cool. We saw probably 10-15 smokenadoes and some pyrocu. This is pretty cool even if it isnt severe weather Ian, and like SmokeEater said, if you can hang on until the weekend you are looking pretty good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 4, 2011 Share Posted May 4, 2011 This is pretty cool even if it isnt severe weather Ian, and like SmokeEater said, if you can hang on until the weekend you are looking pretty good. Thx--will have to process more. The other guys got vid as well. We're planning on being here through at least next Friday or Saturday, though if the early week stuff fails I dunno. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted May 4, 2011 Share Posted May 4, 2011 We're planning on being here through at least next Friday or Saturday, though if the early week stuff fails I dunno. I think you will have multiple chances come next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted May 4, 2011 Share Posted May 4, 2011 I think you will have multiple chances come next week. Agree Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted May 4, 2011 Share Posted May 4, 2011 Agree I also agree that the upcoming pattern looks decent...maybe moreso north and east of the southern Plains but it's really too early to tell for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 4, 2011 Share Posted May 4, 2011 I also agree that the upcoming pattern looks decent...maybe moreso north and east of the southern Plains but it's really too early to tell for sure. While I'd like southern Plains it doesnt really matter too much where it is, if it's good we'll go to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted May 4, 2011 Share Posted May 4, 2011 While I'd like southern Plains it doesnt really matter too much where it is, if it's good we'll go to it. I remember you saying that you lived in Texas for a while. Did you ever see anything good there? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 4, 2011 Share Posted May 4, 2011 I remember you saying that you lived in Texas for a while. Did you ever see anything good there? I saw quite a few powerful severe storms obviously.. 2 wall clouds, funnel/maybe brief tornado. I was pretty young though. I've never been north of southern OK before or Abilene etc. So, the Plains is a new experience. Even without storms I've come away with some pretty cool shots the last few days. Doing a lot of panos etc. But, hopefully it's just a matter of time. I'm not even really expecting to see a tornado, would just like to see a big storm.. ones in the northeast are wimpy for the most part. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan11295 Posted May 4, 2011 Share Posted May 4, 2011 I saw quite a few powerful severe storms obviously.. 2 wall clouds, funnel/maybe brief tornado. I was pretty young though. I've never been north of southern OK before or Abilene etc. So, the Plains is a new experience. Even without storms I've come away with some pretty cool shots the last few days. Doing a lot of panos etc. But, hopefully it's just a matter of time. I'm not even really expecting to see a tornado, would just like to see a big storm.. ones in the northeast are wimpy for the most part. A bit curious regarding analogs for this year as it relates to severe weather this month. Read somewhere that 1974 (the obvious analog to this year) had relatively few tornadoes after the Super Outbreak. Maybe a met could chime in on that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted May 4, 2011 Author Share Posted May 4, 2011 Smokenadoes! The main one in this clip is the one in Ian's pictures above. We're still processing a lot of our pictures/videos from the fire. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 4, 2011 Share Posted May 4, 2011 radar of the fire: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted May 4, 2011 Share Posted May 4, 2011 Where the heck are the tornado pics/vidoes you guys promised me?! I don't care about smokeadoes! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted May 4, 2011 Share Posted May 4, 2011 I'll donate another $50 to AmWx if the guys can produce a YouTube of a tornado with Ion and Mark in the foreground. They don't have to act silly or anything. I figure they need some incentive... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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