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Chasecation!


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Driving to Kansas today... some plans in Wichita early tomorrow. Hopefully things will look a bit better for Friday.

I'd have done Nawlins for a day or two.

Maybe fun in Wichita on Friday... For being 4 days out, seems to have some potential.

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post-138-0-75933800-1304357035.gif

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KTOP and KICT AFDs not super confident, but I'm glass quarter full/silver lining optimist of at least one AmWx tornado or sheet-metal dinging hail storm.

THURSDAY WILL BE COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT BUT ANOTHER SYSTEM IS

FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY FRIDAY. WINDS WILL

QUICKLY TURN BACK TO SOUTHERLY IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM WITH SOME

CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ALONG THE INCOMING COLD FRONT BY LATE FRIDAY

INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THE BEST CHANCES APPEAR TO BE OVER THE

SOUTHEASTERN FORECAST AREA WITH THIS SYSTEM GIVEN CLOSER PROXIMITY

TO DECENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. GFS IS ON THE AGGRESSIVE SIDE WITH

QPF AND WOULD BE CAUTIOUS USING THAT SOLUTION AT THE PRESENT TIME.

THE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY AND BEYOND HAS SOME SUBSTANTIAL

QUESTIONS INVOLVING EVEN THE GENERAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN.

MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SOME PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL DURING THE

WEEKEND BUT CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND STRENGTH OF A WEEKEND STORM

SYSTEM IS LOW AT BEST. AT THIS TIME...HAVE GONE WITH A MAINLY DRY

FORECAST DUE TO THIS LACK OF CONFIDENCE IN THE GUIDANCE. EXPECT

THE DETAILS TO BECOME MORE APPARENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

THERE IS SOME AGREEMENT IN A WARMING TREND BY EARLY NEXT WEEK IN

ADVANCE OF A POTENTIALLY MORE SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.

Which one is Ian?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sLXlwKbLjDM

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Just got some stills processed from the Memphis cell we intercepted yesterday...

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Just heading into Wichita now... a couple of things planned for tomorrow, with some relaxation time until Friday. Wednesday's system would be nice if the forecast dewpoints weren't in the 40s.

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A bit of hope after all...

ALTHOUGH THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE GUIDANCE...THEY DO AGREE THAT

BEGINNING ON SUN/D6...A LARGER SCALE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE

WRN STATES...WITH RIDGING DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH OVER THE

PLAINS STATES. THIS WOULD PORTEND A GREATER SEVERE THREAT...WITH THE

POSSIBILITY OF 3-4 CONSECUTIVE DAYS OF SIGNIFICANT SEVERE DEVELOPING

FROM THE PLAINS STATES INTO THE MIDWEST BEGINNING ON MON/D7 INTO

TUE/D8 AND LIKELY EXTENDING INTO D9. IF TREND IN MODEL GUIDANCE

PERSISTS...SEVERE RISK AREAS WILL LIKELY BE FORTHCOMING IN

SUBSEQUENT D4-8 OUTLOOKS.

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A bit of hope after all...

ALTHOUGH THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE GUIDANCE...THEY DO AGREE THAT

BEGINNING ON SUN/D6...A LARGER SCALE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE

WRN STATES...WITH RIDGING DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH OVER THE

PLAINS STATES. THIS WOULD PORTEND A GREATER SEVERE THREAT...WITH THE

POSSIBILITY OF 3-4 CONSECUTIVE DAYS OF SIGNIFICANT SEVERE DEVELOPING

FROM THE PLAINS STATES INTO THE MIDWEST BEGINNING ON MON/D7 INTO

TUE/D8 AND LIKELY EXTENDING INTO D9. IF TREND IN MODEL GUIDANCE

PERSISTS...SEVERE RISK AREAS WILL LIKELY BE FORTHCOMING IN

SUBSEQUENT D4-8 OUTLOOKS.

Yeah I am really liking the model consistency across the board for a seasonally strong trough to develop out west late in the weekend and slowly shift it east into early next week.

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A lot are hyping the pattern starting May 8th, hang in there.

I hope so.. the fire was pretty cool. We saw probably 10-15 smokenadoes and some pyrocu.

post-1615-0-93538300-1304475303.jpg

post-1615-0-21625500-1304475311.jpg

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Gah... really rough pattern for you guys. You can maybe take solace in the fact that it wasn't so much a bad selection of days on your part as simply a bad year overall for the best chasing areas on the Plains. This has been the worst early-mid season I've witnessed yet for areas W of I-35, and that's saying a LOT after 2006 and 2009.

Really hoping the Sunday-Tuesday period pans out for all of our sakes, despite moisture and capping issues already rearing their ugly heads on the MR models.

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Gah... really rough pattern for you guys. You can maybe take solace in the fact that it wasn't so much a bad selection of days on your part as simply a bad year overall for the best chasing areas on the Plains. This has been the worst early-mid season I've witnessed yet for areas W of I-35, and that's saying a LOT after 2006 and 2009.

Really hoping the Sunday-Tuesday period pans out for all of our sakes, despite moisture and capping issues already rearing their ugly heads on the MR models.

Yeah, it's been kind of ugly. I was hoping it was about to back into the area rather than just cut off. It's hard to imagine the GFS scenario without some good storms, but you never know. Explaining why I came to Kansas to NOT see tornadoes might be harder than explaining why I came here to see them.

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I hope so.. the fire was pretty cool. We saw probably 10-15 smokenadoes and some pyrocu.

post-1615-0-93538300-1304475303.jpg

post-1615-0-21625500-1304475311.jpg

This is pretty cool even if it isnt severe weather Ian, and like SmokeEater said, if you can hang on until the weekend you are looking pretty good.

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This is pretty cool even if it isnt severe weather Ian, and like SmokeEater said, if you can hang on until the weekend you are looking pretty good.

Thx--will have to process more. The other guys got vid as well. We're planning on being here through at least next Friday or Saturday, though if the early week stuff fails I dunno.

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I also agree that the upcoming pattern looks decent...maybe moreso north and east of the southern Plains but it's really too early to tell for sure.

While I'd like southern Plains it doesnt really matter too much where it is, if it's good we'll go to it.

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I remember you saying that you lived in Texas for a while. Did you ever see anything good there?

I saw quite a few powerful severe storms obviously.. 2 wall clouds, funnel/maybe brief tornado. I was pretty young though. I've never been north of southern OK before or Abilene etc. So, the Plains is a new experience. Even without storms I've come away with some pretty cool shots the last few days. Doing a lot of panos etc. But, hopefully it's just a matter of time. I'm not even really expecting to see a tornado, would just like to see a big storm.. ones in the northeast are wimpy for the most part.

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I saw quite a few powerful severe storms obviously.. 2 wall clouds, funnel/maybe brief tornado. I was pretty young though. I've never been north of southern OK before or Abilene etc. So, the Plains is a new experience. Even without storms I've come away with some pretty cool shots the last few days. Doing a lot of panos etc. But, hopefully it's just a matter of time. I'm not even really expecting to see a tornado, would just like to see a big storm.. ones in the northeast are wimpy for the most part.

A bit curious regarding analogs for this year as it relates to severe weather this month. Read somewhere that 1974 (the obvious analog to this year) had relatively few tornadoes after the Super Outbreak. Maybe a met could chime in on that.

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