Chasecation!

[The Dude]

We are right on the border. Not sure where Jason is anymore.

Did you guys buy a second car?

[Ian]

Did you guys buy a second car?

We rented one tho it seems the other is doing better now. It was iffy prior so wanted insurance we would make it back.

[The Dude]

We rented one tho it seems the other is doing better now. It was iffy prior so wanted insurance we would make it back.

Gotcha. I thought maybe Jason booted you guys out.

[wxmeddler]

Via Spotter Network, they should be entering the Sterling CWA within the hour. Welcome back guys!

[Ian]

Into MD. PA turnpike ftl.

[snowfan]

Into MD. PA turnpike ftl.

I'm pretty sure I've hallucinated multiple times while driving on the PA Turnpike late at night. It is a terribly boring ride.

[winterymix]

What are the generally accepting trolling protocols in this thread?

Does the triumphant return of the expedition imply that the mid-Atlantic area

is now safe from tornadoes and dent-free rental cars?

[Ian]

What are the generally accepting trolling protocols in this thread?

Does the triumphant return of the expedition imply that the mid-Atlantic area

is now safe from tornadoes and dent-free rental cars?

I'm confident you would have shat yourself on those backroads in SD in the bear cage while it was pitch black.

[bronxx]

This 28 page thread has provided a very realistic example of what MOST storm chase vacations are like: long days driving, rising and falling periods of false optimism, unexpected expenses, some totally down days under a big ridge, and a couple of garden variety thunderstorms "intercepted."

Being mid-May, there are somewhere between 1000-1500 chasers out in the Plains hoping to re-create the movie Twister; with 99% of them driving this way and that, day after day, running from echo to echo (where there are any), and either not seeing a tornado, or barely getting there as one ropes out and/or gets rain-rapped. This past week has provided disappointment to those 1000+ folks on their long-anticipated "chase vacation."

I guess an analogy is Marlin fishing off the east coast of Florida. Once in a great while you might hook one of the big fish, and some of those few times you actually land it. But, most of the time you just troll and troll, change baits, shift your locale, possibly spot some bait fish jumping away from a possible big fish below; then go home with a sunburn and a queasy stomach.

But once in a while you spot, hook, fight, then land a real tornado. This might happen once a season, or once in every three seasons. Luck is a major % of your chances; with skill and experience enhancing your chances on those few days when tornadoes are actually popping. All that hard work, boredom, money expended, days with no intercepts then all seem well worth the trouble.

I guess the message is: "It don't come easy."

"Got to pay your dues if you wanna sing the blues,

And you know it don't come easy.

You don't have to shout or leap about,

You can even play them easy."

[Ian]

The above is probably fairly correct tho even in "failure" (at least in seeing a tornado) I would say "garden variety" is not a good term for at least several of the storms we saw. I watched through the South Dakota video last night when I got home and it was pretty wicked -- clear rotation, crazy cloud movement, etc.Will try to deal with that night before the rest in getting something up.

[Ed Lizard]

The above is probably fairly correct tho even in "failure" (at least in seeing a tornado) I would say "garden variety" is not a good term for at least several of the storms we saw. I watched through the South Dakota video last night when I got home and it was pretty wicked -- clear rotation, crazy cloud movement, etc.Will try to deal with that night before the rest in getting something up.

You, Josh and Ellin in a rented car in West Palm Beach. It'll be epic.

[bronxx]

The above is probably fairly correct tho even in "failure" (at least in seeing a tornado) I would say "garden variety" is not a good term for at least several of the storms we saw. I watched through the South Dakota video last night when I got home and it was pretty wicked -- clear rotation, crazy cloud movement, etc.Will try to deal with that night before the rest in getting something up.

True, "garden variety" would probably be a better definition for the typical CBs one sees in Florida and the SE on a hot summer day. Those Great Plains (garden variety) CBs in spring often rotate and provide some relatively unique and spectacular views. As far as rain rate, Florida garden varieties can provide 4 inch per hour rain rates, and certainly rival the rain in most supercells.

Regardless, seeing a rotating supercell is a fairly realistic goal when spending a week or two in "tornado alley" in May; and if that was yours, your trip was not a failure at all. People that live in Florida for 50 years likely experience over 2500 thunderstorms; but are very unlikely to have ever seen even one rotating supercell.

The main point of my post, though, was just to point out that a week of storm chasing typically is not that glamorous, constant action adventure as sometimes depicted on TV; and this thread brought that out quite clearly. It is more the arduous task as slowly described in this long thread; with "success" coming hard, with great patience, and not having overzealous expectations. Like in that one post that predicted a 98% chance of seeing one tornado that day under the moderate risk oval on the map the evening before (which faded away under the debris of the earlier-than-expected MCS that developed overnight).

[Ellinwood]

This 28 page thread has provided a very realistic example of what MOST storm chase vacations are like: long days driving, rising and falling periods of false optimism, unexpected expenses, some totally down days under a big ridge, and a couple of garden variety thunderstorms "intercepted."

Being mid-May, there are somewhere between 1000-1500 chasers out in the Plains hoping to re-create the movie Twister; with 99% of them driving this way and that, day after day, running from echo to echo (where there are any), and either not seeing a tornado, or barely getting there as one ropes out and/or gets rain-rapped. This past week has provided disappointment to those 1000+ folks on their long-anticipated "chase vacation."

I guess an analogy is Marlin fishing off the east coast of Florida. Once in a great while you might hook one of the big fish, and some of those few times you actually land it. But, most of the time you just troll and troll, change baits, shift your locale, possibly spot some bait fish jumping away from a possible big fish below; then go home with a sunburn and a queasy stomach.

But once in a while you spot, hook, fight, then land a real tornado. This might happen once a season, or once in every three seasons. Luck is a major % of your chances; with skill and experience enhancing your chances on those few days when tornadoes are actually popping. All that hard work, boredom, money expended, days with no intercepts then all seem well worth the trouble.

I guess the message is: "It don't come easy."

"Got to pay your dues if you wanna sing the blues,

And you know it don't come easy.

You don't have to shout or leap about,

You can even play them easy."

LOLWUT @ bolded parts.

[k***]

You, Josh and Ellin in a rented car in West Palm Beach. It'll be epic.

josh doesn't want to chase with people he doesn't like

[brettjrob]

This 28 page thread has provided a very realistic example of what MOST storm chase vacations are like: long days driving, rising and falling periods of false optimism, unexpected expenses, some totally down days under a big ridge, and a couple of garden variety thunderstorms "intercepted."

Being mid-May, there are somewhere between 1000-1500 chasers out in the Plains hoping to re-create the movie Twister; with 99% of them driving this way and that, day after day, running from echo to echo (where there are any), and either not seeing a tornado, or barely getting there as one ropes out and/or gets rain-rapped. This past week has provided disappointment to those 1000+ folks on their long-anticipated "chase vacation."

I guess an analogy is Marlin fishing off the east coast of Florida. Once in a great while you might hook one of the big fish, and some of those few times you actually land it. But, most of the time you just troll and troll, change baits, shift your locale, possibly spot some bait fish jumping away from a possible big fish below; then go home with a sunburn and a queasy stomach.

But once in a while you spot, hook, fight, then land a real tornado. This might happen once a season, or once in every three seasons. Luck is a major % of your chances; with skill and experience enhancing your chances on those few days when tornadoes are actually popping. All that hard work, boredom, money expended, days with no intercepts then all seem well worth the trouble.

I guess the message is: "It don't come easy."

"Got to pay your dues if you wanna sing the blues,

And you know it don't come easy.

You don't have to shout or leap about,

You can even play them easy."

I don't think it's quite as bad as you suggest. Unless one expects to see wedges every day of a trip, it's probably the case more often than not that East Coasters come away from their first Plains trip more than satisfied.

Majority of years, a trip from May 1-15 would have included at least one or two moderate to high-end chase setups over prime chase territory. This year was an anomaly in that there were a couple low-end setups, at best, and nothing else. The fact that these guys were STILL able to intercept a tornadic supercell in what has been one of the worst early May's on record says something.

Also, planning an early May trip is a bit like Russian Roulette. The safer bet is usually late May into mid June, when it's almost unheard of not to get long strings of days with supercells on the High Plains. I think a good analogy for snow weenies is that an early May trip is like flying to Boston for a week in January, whereas the late season trip is more like Buffalo in November/December. Your chance of seeing a spectacular, synoptically-evident event is a bit higher with the former, but your overall chances of at least seeing what you came for on multiple days (snow/supercells) are definitely better with the latter. So if someone planning a trip is really concerned about making sure they aren't dicking around sightseeing the whole time, the June play is always an option. I dare say there's never been a year when a June 1-15 trip would have left vacationers without at least 3-4 days of gorgeous, sculpted supercells, and probably a weak tornado or two.

BTW, I don't mean at all to imply that Ian and crew made a poor choice; I'm sure they were well aware of this ahead of time, and made their plans based on their own schedules and chase goals. Just something to think about for anyone else who might have thoughts of making a trip out here.

Anyway, I do understand and concur with your point that real chasing is nothing close to the glorified TV depiction, and involves far more hours of waiting and intense frustration than anything else. I just don't think that the ratio of successful to unsuccessful chase days is quite as low as you suggest, especially with the mobile technology and data we have available these days.

[Ed Lizard]

josh doesn't want to chase with people he doesn't like

I'm not flying to Florida.

A think tank brainiac and a storm chasing pro-met, Josh would get along swimmingly.

[Ellinwood]

Majority of years, a trip from May 1-15 would have included at least one or two moderate to high-end chase setups over prime chase territory. This year was an anomaly in that there were a couple low-end setups, at best, and nothing else. The fact that these guys were STILL able to intercept a tornadic supercell in what has been one of the worst early May's on record says something.

BTW, I don't mean at all to imply that Ian and crew made a poor choice; I'm sure they were well aware of this ahead of time, and made their plans based on their own schedules and chase goals. Just something to think about for anyone else who might have thoughts of making a trip out here.

Ding ding ding ding!

We did the best with what we could. None of us had any delusions about what we were getting into (aside from my 98% ).

There's always next year.

[HurricaneJosh]

josh doesn't want to chase with people he doesn't like

Well, that's a bit harsh.

But I will say that chaser dynamics are very, very delicate. When you chase, you're in close quarters with the same person for days, and even the slightest personality quirks become magnified a thousandfold. And also, not all chasers have the same danger thresholds, the same goals, etc. Given this, I've always chosen my partners very carefully, and I am blessed with two (Scott and Jorge) who are cool, mellow dudes-- ones I can spend a few days with nonstop without feeling crazy-- who also have the same danger thresholds and goals. When they're not available, I just go it alone rather than chase with someone I haven't gotten to know really, really well in advance.

But that's just me. I'm sure others aren't so finicky as I.

[Ian]

josh doesn't want to chase with people he doesn't like

[Bozart]

I don't think it's quite as bad as you suggest.

I do. There are plenty of years when supercells don't happen when or where they're supposed to. I know. I was out there burning gas for some of those years. One year, six weeks straight -- and nothing. Nothing from Texas to North Dakota to Denver to KCK. Just drought and fires, for six weeks.

People think gadgets and cellphones make it like shooting fish in a barrel. But sometimes the barrel just ain't got no fish. It does happen.

[Ian]

I do. There are plenty of years when supercells don't happen when or where they're supposed to. I know. I was out there burning gas for some of those years. One year, six weeks straight -- and nothing. Nothing from Texas to North Dakota to Denver to KCK. Just drought and fires, for six weeks.

People think gadgets and cellphones make it like shooting fish in a barrel. But sometimes the barrel just ain't got no fish. It does happen.

Research from people like Doswell shows most OK outbreaks happen within 2 weeks of May 1. I suppose Bretts points are worth noting in the future. I was not expecting to see a tornado but perhaps I was expecting more structure shots than I got. If later is better I'll plan for that next time. We knew it was going to be tough this year given the pattern we were running into. Still, Wed was a kick in the gut.

All and all we did as well as we could and rooming with two guys I only really knew through here mosty went off just fine.

If you live in the area finding a tornado or several every year may not be an impossible task but it's surely a lot harder than flying into a city as a giant hurricane is plowing toward it and waiting in a hotel.

I had another option to book a 3 day trip at the end of May for free but if my choice is 2 weeks or 3 days well in advance I'll take the one that gives me more time. I think your note about flying out right in advance of a more 'sure thing' is a good option though still a gamble for sure.

Plenty here could never do what we did so the mocking from them is chuckle worthy.

[Ed Lizard]

You guys did something I've been wanting to do for almost ever but never did.

SETX is a bad place if one wants to chase, outside the main alley, lots of trees.

I have seen tropical funnels, however.

[wxmeddler]

I applaud you guys majorly, anyone who can stand each other for 2 weeks while driving across a virtual desert is something that is a feat in itself. Not to mention the one night in SD inside the bears cage on some crazy country with rope tornado on your tail. I get nervous when I'm 5 miles outside of a hail core in York county, nothing ever like what you guys did. I hope you three had "fun" or at least a good experience while on this trip.

Josh and Jason need to hook up for a east coast landfall this season. Epicness would ensue.

[brettjrob]

I do. There are plenty of years when supercells don't happen when or where they're supposed to. I know. I was out there burning gas for some of those years. One year, six weeks straight -- and nothing. Nothing from Texas to North Dakota to Denver to KCK. Just drought and fires, for six weeks.

People think gadgets and cellphones make it like shooting fish in a barrel. But sometimes the barrel just ain't got no fish. It does happen.

Late 80s, I'm guessing? I've always shuddered at the thought of living those years out as a chaser, and this year just might approach that threshold the way things are looking.

Perhaps long-term (decadal or longer) pattern changes could prove my first post to be unwise. But it does seem as if, at least over the past 10-15 years, my statement about the late May trough mid June period has held true in almost all cases. You'd be hard-pressed to find a year when Eric Nguyen or Mike Hollingshead failed to capture a handful of spectacular stormscapes.

[Ian]

I applaud you guys majorly, anyone who can stand each other for 2 weeks while driving across a virtual desert is something that is a feat in itself. Not to mention the one night in SD inside the bears cage on some crazy country with rope tornado on your tail. I get nervous when I'm 5 miles outside of a hail core in York county, nothing ever like what you guys did. I hope you three had "fun" or at least a good experience while on this trip.

Josh and Jason need to hook up for a east coast landfall this season. Epicness would ensue.

I lived in TX for a few year but never made it further north than Oklahoma. So, just seeing those places was pretty cool. The way we did it certainly isnt for everyone, but if you're going to "randomly" choose an extended period to be out there, it seems you need at least 2 weeks to get something... just a bad year so far. I'm sure there will be several outbreaks out there in the next week or three.

[Ian]

I would also like to give major props to Jason for being a great chase leader. His experience shines for sure. Plus an unexpected Ian/Ellinwood alliance may have emerged contrary to Mid-Atlantic forum beliefs prior to the trip.

[Ellinwood]

I would also like to give major props to Jason for being a great chase leader. His experience shines for sure. Plus an unexpected Ian/Ellinwood alliance may have emerged contrary to Mid-Atlantic forum beliefs prior to the trip.

Definite thanks to Jason for his awesome navigation skills while on the chase. The fact that he kept us in position on a tornado-warned cell for two hours while the few others that were on the cell gave up and/or fell behind really shows that he's got it covered. All three of us working together in forecasting, nowcasting and navigation really put us in good position for storms. Unfortunately, good forecasts and good navigation can't make up for "bad" weather.

[winterymix]

I'm confident you would have shat yourself on those backroads in SD in the bear cage while it was pitch black.

In the true spirit of friendship, collegiality and brotherhood, and with great humility,

I accept your invitation to cower in fear and vacate my bowels in the back seat

of your chase vehicle.

Will cover several expedition grande meals at Taco Bell. Thank you.

[wxmeddler]

In the true spirit of friendship, collegiality and brotherhood, and with great humility,

I accept your invitation to cower in fear and vacate my bowels in the back seat

of your chase vehicle.

Will cover several expedition grande meals at Taco Bell. Thank you.

[Ian]

In the true spirit of friendship, collegiality and brotherhood, and with great humility,

I accept your invitation to cower in fear and vacate my bowels in the back seat

of your chase vehicle.

Will cover several expedition grande meals at Taco Bell. Thank you.

lol.