Arnold214 Posted May 11, 2011 Share Posted May 11, 2011 Hitting Jetmore. I think we will head north toward that field developing. Line of cu north south right in front of to the west now too. Ok, good you're heading the right way. There should be at least isolated storms developing in an arc from around I-70 near the KS/CO border eastward to WaKeeney, then southward to your location down to Woodward. So far, the best instability and low level shear exists near the warm front in NW kansas in the vicinity of I-70. There's already a cell near I-70 in eastern CO that's trying to go tornadic as I speak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bozart Posted May 11, 2011 Share Posted May 11, 2011 There's already a cell near I-70 in eastern CO that's trying to go tornadic as I speak. Yep. Couplet starting to show up on that cell west of Burlington in the last frame or two on Goodland radar storm-relative product on my WeatherTap. Front seems to be draped east/west just about about over Sharon Springs, one county south of Goodland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted May 11, 2011 Share Posted May 11, 2011 http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/wfo/ddc/mflash-rgb.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted May 11, 2011 Share Posted May 11, 2011 Ok, good you're heading the right way. There should be at least isolated storms developing in an arc from around I-70 near the KS/CO border eastward to WaKeeney, then southward to your location down to Woodward. So far, the best instability and low level shear exists near the warm front in NW kansas in the vicinity of I-70. There's already a cell near I-70 in eastern CO that's trying to go tornadic as I speak. You sure? It seems the best downdraft CAPE and helicity is on the Kansas/CO border and slowing slipping east. Wouldn't Garden CIty be favored? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bozart Posted May 11, 2011 Share Posted May 11, 2011 Warm front near Goodland really loading up w/cumulus. New cells trying to pop eastward through Goodland. Big cell west of there, west of Burlington, is back-building, seems near-stationary. Spotters report funnel cloud on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 11, 2011 Share Posted May 11, 2011 Cu to our north are starting to go up a bit more now. Timmer is in Oakley, thinks triple point forming near there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bozart Posted May 11, 2011 Share Posted May 11, 2011 So far at least the stuff wants to pop 20-30 miles north of the front in the easterly flow and drift northwesterly. Small new cell popped near Goodland, same thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 11, 2011 Share Posted May 11, 2011 I don't think we are too far from triple pt. Line of cu north and west. North: http://moby.to/ol60jk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted May 11, 2011 Share Posted May 11, 2011 2 tor warned storms in the entire US, and Western Kansas/Eastern Colorado not in a box. Kit Carson county storm is 20 mph per NWS, those storms should make photogenic targets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bozart Posted May 11, 2011 Share Posted May 11, 2011 What's your wind direction? Should back more easterly near the cumulus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 11, 2011 Share Posted May 11, 2011 What's your wind direction? Should back more easterly near the cumulus. Mostly southeast. We are still a jog south of 70. Not quite ready to commit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted May 11, 2011 Share Posted May 11, 2011 2 tor warned storms in the entire US, and Western Kansas/Eastern Colorado not in a box. Kit Carson county storm is 20 mph per NWS, those storms should make photogenic targets. They issued the tor box as you were typing this. http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0285.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 11, 2011 Share Posted May 11, 2011 Stuff going south now. Dillema. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted May 11, 2011 Share Posted May 11, 2011 based on GPS looks like they are trying to intercept the cell to their south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted May 11, 2011 Share Posted May 11, 2011 Stuff going south now. Dillema. So far, the environment is better for tornadoes along I-70. Anyway, 1/4 +SN with thunder not too far south of Denver...I think you guys should go after that... KMNH 112234Z AUTO 31009KT 1/4SM +SN OVC002 00/00 A2985 RMK AO2 LTG DSNT E AND S Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 11, 2011 Share Posted May 11, 2011 based on GPS looks like they are trying to intercept the cell to their south The stuff north is not doing much so far. Weve been watching and nothing really going up. We are trying to leave both options open. Based on this trip my expectations might be dropping. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 11, 2011 Share Posted May 11, 2011 Timmer relaying wall cloud report with Dodge City cell. We are too far to hit CO. On the ground here our location seems OK but who knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted May 11, 2011 Share Posted May 11, 2011 Timmer relaying wall cloud report with Dodge City cell. We are too far to hit CO. On the ground here our location seems OK but who knows. The cell may be dead before it gets to you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Dude Posted May 11, 2011 Share Posted May 11, 2011 Timmer relaying wall cloud report with Dodge City cell. We are too far to hit CO. On the ground here our location seems OK but who knows. There was definitely a wall cloud on several of the chaser's cams. Didn't look like it produced anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted May 11, 2011 Share Posted May 11, 2011 Hopefully something else will go up in the Jetmore-Grainfield corridor shortly and get into that better air just south of the e-w front. Looks like it's trying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 11, 2011 Share Posted May 11, 2011 The cell may be dead before it gets to you. We are going to head north but stuff is going up around that old cell. Looks nice in death at least http://moby.to/2u23ms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted May 11, 2011 Share Posted May 11, 2011 Good luck, guys! I knocked on wood, hoping you get some good action today! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted May 11, 2011 Share Posted May 11, 2011 We are going to head north but stuff is going up around that old cell. Looks nice in death at least http://moby.to/2u23ms You hope is that something robust develops from just west of Ness City to Grinnell and taps whatever low level shear there is near the boundary. The stuff near the CO/KS border is looking nice and tornadic. I know you can't get there but perhaps something else will go to it's SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted May 11, 2011 Share Posted May 11, 2011 been gone for awhile...what a ripoff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted May 11, 2011 Share Posted May 11, 2011 been gone for awhile...what a ripoff total sh*t show. Not sure if they're chasing tomorrow, but eastern OK looks like a good first guess for tomorrow...with initiation somewhere near or just east of I-35...perhaps in the Seminole to Ardmore corridor...then moving northeast of there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 11, 2011 Share Posted May 11, 2011 We some sort of high level condensation funnel in this wimpy thing we are following north on the dryline. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mnchaser Posted May 11, 2011 Share Posted May 11, 2011 Not your most ideal chasing setup, cold core setup possibly. It's a mess some of the chaser cams show this..Just nasty scud looking storms and I don't see any super cells popping up with this kind of setup today. If there are any tornado reports in that area they are going to be quick and very short lived in my opinion. Fascinating weather phenomenon though if your all the way from the east coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 11, 2011 Share Posted May 11, 2011 Terrible. I'm sure something will go right before sunset. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 12, 2011 Share Posted May 12, 2011 I barely see any clouds now. Should have taken the car issues as a signal maybe. Jason missed getting bit by a snake by a pantleg. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted May 12, 2011 Share Posted May 12, 2011 What a ****ing shame... I wouldn't blame y'all if you never step foot in the Plains again after this trip. I've chased over 100 days and have never seen a worse case of morning convection laying waste to a setup... this year has been so bad out here it boggles the mind... it is what '01-'02 was to DC weenies. Thank god you at least got to experience what it's like to be on a supercell the other night in SD... hopefully that gave you just enough of a taste to give it another shot someday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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