Ed Lizard Posted May 11, 2011 Share Posted May 11, 2011 I hope the new NAM coming out isn't right. I don't like it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted May 11, 2011 Share Posted May 11, 2011 Not looking good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted May 11, 2011 Share Posted May 11, 2011 I need Ekster on speed dial. you're fine where you are...don't start freaking out yet and driving 4 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 11, 2011 Share Posted May 11, 2011 you're fine where you are...don't start freaking out yet and driving 4 hours I feel about the same now as before.. not sure what all the freak out is. Convection is a pain down to the wire. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted May 11, 2011 Share Posted May 11, 2011 lol...Too many specialist model hugging...again, good luck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted May 11, 2011 Share Posted May 11, 2011 Stick with the triple point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted May 11, 2011 Share Posted May 11, 2011 My advice, be near Tulsa around 3 or 4 pm for isolated storms well ahead of the dryline, and then boogie down I-44 towards OKC to meet the main show, may be a line, coming towards OKC before sunset. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted May 11, 2011 Share Posted May 11, 2011 Stick with the triple point. He is a highly paid professional. So he is probably right, but everybody will be near the triple point, and Tulsa to OKC probably won't have mad chase traffic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SEMIweather Posted May 11, 2011 Share Posted May 11, 2011 He is a highly paid professional. So he is probably right, but everybody will be near the triple point, and Tulsa to OKC probably won't have mad chase traffic. You're right, there's never any chaser convergence in the Tulsa-OKC corridor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted May 11, 2011 Share Posted May 11, 2011 In defense of I-35 and I-44, ie, Tulsa, I think there'll be a lot less interference from current convection and cloud debris, and more destabilization. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted May 11, 2011 Share Posted May 11, 2011 You're right, there's never any chaser convergence in the Tulsa-OKC corridor. I didn't say that, just that it seems Kansas will be all the rage today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 11, 2011 Share Posted May 11, 2011 OKC is to be avoided at all costs.. maybe even if a big tornado moves through. No way we're going to Tulsa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted May 11, 2011 Share Posted May 11, 2011 OKC is to be avoided at all costs.. maybe even if a big tornado moves through. No way we're going to Tulsa. Committed to Kansas, then? Or might you get down to near Bartlesville or vicinity? You still have time, not even 10 am, and a mile a minute or better/// Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bozart Posted May 11, 2011 Share Posted May 11, 2011 Stick with the triple point. Yep. Play the helicities on the warm front right on the nose of the surface low. Wherever that point is when things clear out and heat up later today, that's where you should be. Just my opinion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 11, 2011 Share Posted May 11, 2011 Committed to Kansas, then? Or might you get down to near Bartlesville or vicinity? You still have time, not even 10 am, and a mile a minute or better/// We're leaving options open a little, may still stick to general plan for now. KS would be optimal but we can run south if needed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted May 11, 2011 Share Posted May 11, 2011 ellinwood's 98% chances would go down a lot if he went to Tulsa IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted May 11, 2011 Share Posted May 11, 2011 ellinwood's 98% chances would go down a lot if he went to Tulsa IMO there isn't a scenario in the world where Ellinwood's 98% chances wouldn't go down.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted May 11, 2011 Share Posted May 11, 2011 Lets post ideas on where severe weather is most likely within the driving radius of Jason. Ian and Ellinwood, shall we? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted May 11, 2011 Share Posted May 11, 2011 Lets keep this on track boys..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted May 11, 2011 Share Posted May 11, 2011 Lets post ideas on where severe weather is most likely within the driving radius of Jason. Ian and Ellinwood, shall we? That's fine....I honestly think you think you are being helpful and that the chasers might actually rely on your insight to make critical decisions today and why should I take that delusion away from you?....Plus, to a man, your intent has been good throughout this thread and I do think you want the chasers to have success... also, I should be kinder as I think you have the capacity to become unhinged and I wouldn't want to be the recipient of your instability Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scuddz Posted May 11, 2011 Share Posted May 11, 2011 where are u all this AM? What you think of the box between Salina, Manhattan, Marysville, and Concordia? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted May 11, 2011 Share Posted May 11, 2011 where are u all this AM? What you think of the box between Salina, Manhattan, Marysville, and Concordia? They are in Pratt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted May 11, 2011 Share Posted May 11, 2011 That's fine....I honestly think you think you are being helpful and that the chasers might actually rely on your insight to make critical decisions today and why should I take that delusion away from you?....Plus, to a man, your intent has been good throughout this thread and I do think you want the chasers to have success... also, I should be kinder as I think you have the capacity to become unhinged and I wouldn't want to be the recipient of your instability Thanks, sort of. I'm not planning on going to DC for anything, no worries. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 11, 2011 Share Posted May 11, 2011 where are u all this AM? What you think of the box between Salina, Manhattan, Marysville, and Concordia? We headed north from Pratt for now. Gotta see what this first batch does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted May 11, 2011 Share Posted May 11, 2011 We headed north from Pratt for now. Gotta see what this first batch does. Good luck with the car sputtering. Stop and get a new fuel filter and plugs ASAP.. edit: go rent a one while getting the other repaired. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted May 11, 2011 Share Posted May 11, 2011 I wouldn't freak out yet. This stuff is occurring pretty early...it'll eventually blow through. Just a matter of how it leaves the airmass ahead of the dryline. That area from greensburg/pratt down into northern ok may still be primed to go later this afternoon. on a side note, tomorrow looks good between okc and tulsa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted May 11, 2011 Share Posted May 11, 2011 SPC is late with the update. Must be making some changes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted May 11, 2011 Share Posted May 11, 2011 Just as I said that: ...KS/NEB... AS IS THE CASE FARTHER SOUTH...SCENARIO IN THIS REGION IS COMPLICATED BY AN ARC OF ONGOING CONVECTION FROM NEB SWD ACROSS WRN/CNTRL KS. IT IS EXPECTED THAT THIS REGION WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE GREATEST INFLUENCE/LIFT FROM THE EJECTING SHORT WAVE TROUGH. DESTABILIZATION UNDERWAY AHEAD OF CIRRUS CANOPY AND ALONG THE SHARP FRONTAL ZONE ALONG/NORTH OF KS/NEB BORDER WILL FUEL INCREASINGLY ROBUST TSTMS LATER TODAY AND INTO THIS EVENING. SHEAR PROFILES WILL BECOME FAVORABLE FOR UPDRAFT ROTATION AND PERSISTENCE AND MAGNITUDE OF LAPSE RATES WILL RESULT IN A GOOD CHANCE FOR LARGE HAIL. TORNADO THREAT WILL ALSO INCREASE FROM THE SLOW MOVING SURFACE LOW IN WRN KS ENEWD ALONG THE FRONT INTO SCNTRL NEB. WERE IT NOT FOR ONGOING CLOUDS AND CONVECTIVE DEBRIS...A GREATER TORNADO POTENTIAL WOULD LIKELY BE INDICATED IN THE OTLK. HOWEVER...GIVEN COMPLICATING FACTORS DUE TO CLOUDS/DESTABILIZATION IN ZONE OF STRONGEST ASCENT...THE STRONG TORNADO THREAT WILL NEED TO CONTINUALLY REASSESSED INTO THE AFTERNOON. WITH TIME EXPECT GREATER STORM CONVERGE AND INCREASING ORGANIZATION TO RESULT IN FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS THAT COULD PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS EWD ACROSS PORTIONS OF SERN KS AND WRN MO LATER TODAY/THIS EVENING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted May 11, 2011 Share Posted May 11, 2011 <3 the newest spc outlook for MBY...definitely an improvement Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted May 11, 2011 Share Posted May 11, 2011 <3 the newest spc outlook for MBY...definitely an improvement Maybe Ellinwood can stop by Manhattan and pick you up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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