winterymix Posted May 10, 2011 Share Posted May 10, 2011 Not every complicated, do not overthink it... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 10, 2011 Share Posted May 10, 2011 Yeah, especially after May 4, 2007. Not sure how they've built up since. There used to be a decent best western there. Not sure if they've rebuilt it. After looking at the website, it looks like they have. Might be worth your while...sounds new and interesting... http://bestwesternkansas.com/hotels/best-western-plus-night-watchman-inn-and-suites Yeah a bit expensive and can't book online. Prob hit Pratt.. Looking for a place with laundry as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted May 10, 2011 Share Posted May 10, 2011 Yeah a bit expensive and can't book online. Prob hit Pratt.. Looking for a place with laundry as well. Alright, trying call the comfort suites but if no rooms avbl there are other decent options such as the days inn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 10, 2011 Share Posted May 10, 2011 Alright, trying call the comfort suites but if no rooms avbl there are other decent options such as the days inn. More importantly it's an OK area to base right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted May 10, 2011 Share Posted May 10, 2011 More importantly it's an OK area to base right? I'd say so at this point. If you base in Pratt...I don't see you having to drive more than 3-4 hours in any direction tomorrow. Pratt is like 3.5 to 4 hours from OKC and like 2.5 to 3 hours from Osborne, KS, for example. Both places could be good targets...and all in between for that matter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted May 11, 2011 Share Posted May 11, 2011 More importantly it's an OK area to base right? Looks like a good spot. Draw a line from Great Bend to Enid to OKC and that's your prime area for tomorrow. Pratt puts you in a good spot to run N-S on 281, E-W on 400. I'm sure you boys won't be lonely out there tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 11, 2011 Share Posted May 11, 2011 tonight is like christmas eve as a kid Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bozart Posted May 11, 2011 Share Posted May 11, 2011 tonight is like christmas eve as a kid Except on Christmas Eve you always knew, 100%, that Santa was really coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 11, 2011 Share Posted May 11, 2011 Except on Christmas Eve you always knew, 100%, that Santa was really coming. But I believe in tornadoes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted May 11, 2011 Share Posted May 11, 2011 I put my initial pin in Ellis, KS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bozart Posted May 11, 2011 Share Posted May 11, 2011 But I believe in tornadoes. I've seen eight no-B.S., condensation-connected-to-the-ground tornadoes. But I never saw my first one until after I'd spent all my vacation time and money on the Great Plains for five futile bust years in a row. Nowadays, Internet and cellphones improve the odds, assuming the weather cooperates. Gonna be pulling like hell for you guys. Best of luck! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted May 11, 2011 Share Posted May 11, 2011 The new day 1 outlook tornado prob graphic is posted below. Initially, based on pattern recognition, I really like the I-70 region of Kansas between Oakley and Hays for best chance of tornado occurrence...probably between 19z and 23z...associated with a possible sweeping arc of supercells. More isolated storms...but probably intense bombs...will fire near or east of dryline further south. My second pick spot would probably be somewhere around Medicine Lodge, KS...perhaps somewhere in the medicine lodge, KS to Cherokee, OK corridor between 22z and 02z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted May 11, 2011 Share Posted May 11, 2011 Well, I'm heading off to bed. I figured I would put my words into graphical form here and outline the area that I think stands the best chance at seeing tornadoes for today. I foresee a sweeping arc of cells developing by early afternoon just to the SW of my outlook area...with a few becoming tornadic in the red shaded area. My confidence in at least two tornadoes occurring in this area is high. A more isolated threat for tornadoes will exist further south in SPC's mod risk area obviously...perhaps one or two mothership supercells with potential tors. I think that you guys being in Pratt to start the day is a very good thing and you may not have to move much at all today. Just be aware that things could get going earlier than they normally do out there. I don't think we're looking at 5-6 pm initiation here...but probably early aftenoon...certainly by 3. The southern end of my red shaded area may even be a bit too far east at least initially given the latest model trends...could see something nasty roll thru Greensburg/Coldwater area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted May 11, 2011 Share Posted May 11, 2011 A THREAT FOR 2 INCH OR GREATER HAIL SHOULD EXIST WITH THE MORE INTENSE SUPERCELLS. IN ADDITION...LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL ALSO INCREASE DURING THE EARLY EVENING AS A 35 TO 50 KT LOW-LEVEL JET BECOMES FOCUSED ACROSS CNTRL OK AND SRN KS. THE GREATEST THREAT FOR TORNADOES SHOULD EXIST TO THE WEST OF THE JET CENTER IN WRN OK AND WCNTRL KS AS SUPERCELLS MATURE DURING THE EARLY EVENING. AN ISOLATED THREAT FOR STRONG TORNADOES MAY EXIST WITH THE MORE DOMINANT SUPERCELLS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 11, 2011 Share Posted May 11, 2011 Thx as always Mike Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted May 11, 2011 Share Posted May 11, 2011 Thx as always Mike Good luck today! Keep your twitter stream updated! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Dude Posted May 11, 2011 Share Posted May 11, 2011 Good luck guys! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted May 11, 2011 Share Posted May 11, 2011 Thx as always Mike Good luck today!! I'll say a little prayer to the Weather Gods for you, they owe me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 11, 2011 Share Posted May 11, 2011 Good luck today! Keep your twitter stream updated! Thx. Will do as long as we have service. I'm pumped.. Not Sure I love the current radar but it should be fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted May 11, 2011 Share Posted May 11, 2011 Looking at the models this morning, I still like a little closer to I-35/I-135, a tad further East than SPC and the experts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 11, 2011 Share Posted May 11, 2011 Hey good luck Ian and company. Looking forward to any stories/pics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SEMIweather Posted May 11, 2011 Share Posted May 11, 2011 Good luck today guys Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted May 11, 2011 Share Posted May 11, 2011 Thx. Will do as long as we have service. I'm pumped.. Not Sure I love the current radar but it should be fine. Time to go see what Santa left for you under the tree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted May 11, 2011 Author Share Posted May 11, 2011 These were my odds I'm putting on today's activity: Chance of seeing... One tornado: 98% Two tornadoes: 60% Three tornadoes: 20% Four or more tornadoes: 5% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 11, 2011 Share Posted May 11, 2011 These were my odds I'm putting on today's activity: Chance of seeing... One tornado: 98% Two tornadoes: 60% Three tornadoes: 20% Four or more tornadoes: 5% I'm sticking with 7 for now.. Gotta keep expectations muted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted May 11, 2011 Share Posted May 11, 2011 Good luck guys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted May 11, 2011 Share Posted May 11, 2011 SPC SWODY1 has removed moderate due existing convection... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted May 11, 2011 Share Posted May 11, 2011 Maybe I'm being a homer and have a Texas bias, but if convective contamination is the issue, maybe farterh South into Oklahoma is the way to go, despite where SPC has best tornado/hail probs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 11, 2011 Share Posted May 11, 2011 I need Ekster on speed dial. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted May 11, 2011 Share Posted May 11, 2011 These were my odds I'm putting on today's activity: Chance of seeing... One tornado: 98% Two tornadoes: 60% Three tornadoes: 20% Four or more tornadoes: 5% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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