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Chasecation!


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Yeah, especially after May 4, 2007. Not sure how they've built up since. There used to be a decent best western there. Not sure if they've rebuilt it.

After looking at the website, it looks like they have. Might be worth your while...sounds new and interesting...

http://bestwesternkansas.com/hotels/best-western-plus-night-watchman-inn-and-suites

Yeah a bit expensive and can't book online. Prob hit Pratt.. Looking for a place with laundry as well.

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Yeah a bit expensive and can't book online. Prob hit Pratt.. Looking for a place with laundry as well.

Alright, trying call the comfort suites but if no rooms avbl there are other decent options such as the days inn.

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Alright, trying call the comfort suites but if no rooms avbl there are other decent options such as the days inn.

More importantly it's an OK area to base right?

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More importantly it's an OK area to base right?

I'd say so at this point. If you base in Pratt...I don't see you having to drive more than 3-4 hours in any direction tomorrow. Pratt is like 3.5 to 4 hours from OKC and like 2.5 to 3 hours from Osborne, KS, for example. Both places could be good targets...and all in between for that matter.

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More importantly it's an OK area to base right?

Looks like a good spot. Draw a line from Great Bend to Enid to OKC and that's your prime area for tomorrow. Pratt puts you in a good spot to run N-S on 281, E-W on 400. I'm sure you boys won't be lonely out there tomorrow.

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But I believe in tornadoes.

I've seen eight no-B.S., condensation-connected-to-the-ground tornadoes. But I never saw my first one until after I'd spent all my vacation time and money on the Great Plains for five futile bust years in a row. Nowadays, Internet and cellphones improve the odds, assuming the weather cooperates.

Gonna be pulling like hell for you guys. Best of luck!

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The new day 1 outlook tornado prob graphic is posted below. Initially, based on pattern recognition, I really like the I-70 region of Kansas between Oakley and Hays for best chance of tornado occurrence...probably between 19z and 23z...associated with a possible sweeping arc of supercells. More isolated storms...but probably intense bombs...will fire near or east of dryline further south. My second pick spot would probably be somewhere around Medicine Lodge, KS...perhaps somewhere in the medicine lodge, KS to Cherokee, OK corridor between 22z and 02z.

post-13-0-82458300-1305093530.png

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Well, I'm heading off to bed. I figured I would put my words into graphical form here and outline the area that I think stands the best chance at seeing tornadoes for today. I foresee a sweeping arc of cells developing by early afternoon just to the SW of my outlook area...with a few becoming tornadic in the red shaded area. My confidence in at least two tornadoes occurring in this area is high. A more isolated threat for tornadoes will exist further south in SPC's mod risk area obviously...perhaps one or two mothership supercells with potential tors.

I think that you guys being in Pratt to start the day is a very good thing and you may not have to move much at all today. Just be aware that things could get going earlier than they normally do out there. I don't think we're looking at 5-6 pm initiation here...but probably early aftenoon...certainly by 3. The southern end of my red shaded area may even be a bit too far east at least initially given the latest model trends...could see something nasty roll thru Greensburg/Coldwater area.

post-13-0-57911600-1305101761.png

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A THREAT

FOR 2 INCH OR GREATER HAIL SHOULD EXIST WITH THE MORE INTENSE

SUPERCELLS. IN ADDITION...LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL ALSO INCREASE DURING

THE EARLY EVENING AS A 35 TO 50 KT LOW-LEVEL JET BECOMES FOCUSED

ACROSS CNTRL OK AND SRN KS. THE GREATEST THREAT FOR TORNADOES SHOULD

EXIST TO THE WEST OF THE JET CENTER IN WRN OK AND WCNTRL KS AS

SUPERCELLS MATURE DURING THE EARLY EVENING. AN ISOLATED THREAT FOR

STRONG TORNADOES MAY EXIST WITH THE MORE DOMINANT SUPERCELLS.

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Good luck today! Keep your twitter stream updated!

Thx. Will do as long as we have service. I'm pumped.. Not

Sure I love the current radar but it should be fine.

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These were my odds I'm putting on today's activity:

Chance of seeing...

One tornado: 98%

Two tornadoes: 60%

Three tornadoes: 20%

Four or more tornadoes: 5%

I'm sticking with 7 for now.. Gotta keep expectations muted.

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