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4/30-5/1 severe threat


Thundersnow12

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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0682

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

1212 PM CDT SUN MAY 01 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN TX...FAR SERN OK...SWRN/CNTRL AR...FAR WRN TN

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 261...

VALID 011712Z - 011845Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 261

CONTINUES.

LATEST SFC ANALYSIS DEPICTS A FRONTAL ZONE EXTENDING AS A COLD FRONT

FROM 15 E JBR TO 30 W PBF...AS A STATIONARY FRONT FARTHER SOUTHWEST

TO 25 NW TYR...AND AS A COLD FRONT SOUTHWEST INTO CNTRL TX. A MODEST

LLJ /SSWLY FLOW AROUND 30 KT PER FORT WORTH AND SHREVEPORT VWP DATA/

ATOP THE NWD-SLOPED FRONTAL SFC IS ALLOWING FOR CONVECTION TO

REGENERATE IN NERN SECTIONS OF WW 261...AND FARTHER NE INTO CNTRL AR

AND FAR WRN TN.

WHILE THE ACTIVITY APPEARS TO HAVE WANED ELSEWHERE TEMPORARILY...

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVERAGE NEAR

AND SOUTHEAST OF THE SFC BOUNDARY INTO THE WARM/UNSTABLE SECTOR.

HORIZONTAL CONVECTIVE ROLLS HAVE BEEN NOTED NEAR AND WEST OF THE

SHREVEPORT AREA. WITH CONTINUED DESTABILIZATION OWING TO

INSOLATION...AS WELL AS FRONTAL CONVERGENCE AND AMPLE LOW-LEVEL AND

DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL WIND SHEAR...AN INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR

SURFACE-BASED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS /INCLUDING SUPERCELLS/ WITH THE

THREAT FOR TORNADOES WILL OCCUR NEAR THE FRONT AND WITHIN THE WARM

SECTOR. THUS...WW 261 WILL NEED TO BE REPLACED BY A TORNADO WATCH

WITHIN AN HOUR.

..COHEN.. 05/01/2011

post-32-0-91470900-1304270184.gif

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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

TORNADO WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN

242 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...

NORTHEASTERN CRITTENDEN COUNTY IN EASTERN ARKANSAS...

SOUTH CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI COUNTY IN EASTERN ARKANSAS...

SOUTHWESTERN LAUDERDALE COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE...

NORTHWESTERN SHELBY COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE...

WESTERN TIPTON COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE...

* UNTIL 330 PM CDT

* AT 242 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR JERICHO...OR 9 MILES

NORTH OF MARION...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO JERICHO...

SUNSET...BRIGHTON...DIXONVILLE...FULTON...MILLINGTON...MUNFORD...

FORT PILLOW STATE PARK AND MEEMAN SHELBY FOREST STATE PARK.

THIS WARNING ALSO INCLUDES AREAS NEAR BRANDYWINE LAKE...CORONEE LAKE

AND WAPANOCCA LAKE.

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301 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2011

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 330 PM CDT FOR WESTERN

TIPTON...NORTH CENTRAL SHELBY...SOUTHWESTERN LAUDERDALE AND SOUTH

CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES...

AT 301 PM CDT...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A FUNNEL CLOUD.

THIS POSSIBLE TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR QUITO...OR 7 MILES NORTHWEST

OF MILLINGTON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH

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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

TORNADO WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN

310 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...

CENTRAL CRITTENDEN COUNTY IN EASTERN ARKANSAS...

NORTHWESTERN DESOTO COUNTY IN NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI...

WESTERN SHELBY COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE...

* UNTIL 400 PM CDT

* AT 310 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR SIMSBORO...OR 9 MILES

NORTHEAST OF HUGHES...MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO

EDMONDSON...PINCKNEY...SIMSBORO...WEST MEMPHIS...BARTLETT...

DOWNTOWN MEMPHIS...FRAYSER...MIDTOWN MEMPHIS...SOUTHEAST MEMPHIS...

SOUTHWEST MEMPHIS AND WHITEHAVEN.

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The MEM storm may have been slightly elavated north of a outflow boundary however this storm has clean air towork with

couplet and large hail

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

TORNADO WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN

354 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...

NORTHERN FAYETTE COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE...

NORTHERN HARDEMAN COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE...

SOUTHERN HAYWOOD COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE...

SOUTHWESTERN MADISON COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE...

* UNTIL 445 PM CDT

* AT 354 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING A TORNADO 9 MILES SOUTHWEST OF

DANCYVILLE...OR 20 MILES SOUTHEAST OF COVINGTON...MOVING EAST AT 40

MPH.

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It looks like the Memphis cell weakened and fell apart. There was no indication of a tornado in Memphis. The storm to our northeast, however, has strengthened:

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...

NORTHERN FAYETTE COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE...

NORTHERN HARDEMAN COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE...

SOUTHERN HAYWOOD COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE...

SOUTHWESTERN MADISON COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE...

* UNTIL 445 PM CDT

* AT 354 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING A TORNADO 9 MILES SOUTHWEST OF

DANCYVILLE...OR 20 MILES SOUTHEAST OF COVINGTON...MOVING EAST AT 40

MPH.

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