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4/30-5/1 severe threat


Thundersnow12

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getting lost in all the tornado outbreak stuff but CoD left for their first trip today and will be chasing tomorrow so I will be forecasting/nowcasting for them.

northeast TX into southwest AR could be a nice little sleeper day if something can remain discrete and stay out ahead of the front.

SREF has been slowly increasing threat for tomorrow and now popping a 50..

It does look like a down period for awhile after these few days as the front heads into the gulf.

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I think everyone, including me, is burned out but this event is lookin a little better each run,,may have to include monday now too

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0742 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2011

VALID 301300Z - 011200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PARTS OF N TX AND THE

ARKLATEX INTO THE LWR OH/LWR MS VLYS...

..SYNOPSIS

ND UPR LOW WILL CONTINUE SLOWLY ENE INTO NRN MN THIS PERIOD AS

TRAILING SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER THE GRT BASIN EVOLVES INTO A

SEPARATE CLOSED SYSTEM NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS. THIS PATTERN WILL

MAINTAIN MODERATE SW TO WSW MID/UPR LVL FLOW FROM THE SRN PLNS AND

OZARKS INTO THE LWR OH VLY.

AT LWR LVLS...SFC LOW WILL TRACK SLOWLY NE INTO WRN ONT THROUGH THE

PERIOD AS ATTENDANT COLD FRONT CONTINUES STEADILY S/SSE ACROSS THE

SRN PLNS...AND E ACROSS THE UPR MS VLY/UPR GRT LKS. THE SRN PART OF

THE BOUNDARY LIKELY WILL DECELERATE AS IT BECOMES NEARLY PARALLEL TO

THE MEAN FLOW...AND SHOULD EXTEND FROM S CNTRL TX THROUGH THE

ARKLATEX INTO W TN BY 12Z SUN. THE FRONT SHOULD SERVE AS THE MAIN

FOCUS FOR POTENTIALLY SVR TSTMS THIS PERIOD.

..ARKLATEX TO LWR MS/LWR OH VLYS

SFC OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE DATA SHOW FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE

/PW UP TO 1.25 INCHES/ SPREADING N/NE ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF TX

ATTM. THIS MOISTURE SHOULD CONTINUE TO SPREAD NEWD ACROSS MUCH OF

AR AND PARTS OF THE LWR MS VLY THROUGH EARLY SUN...AHEAD OF

AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT.

DESPITE INCREASING MOISTURE...EML CAP AND WEAK LARGE SCALE FORCING

FOR ASCENT SHOULD PROHIBIT SFC-BASED TSTM DEVELOPMENT OVER SLIGHT

RISK AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. STORMS SHOULD...HOWEVER...FORM

BY LATE AFTN OR EARLY EVE FROM NE TX INTO CNTRL AR AS FRONT

ENCOUNTERS MOISTURE RETURN AND SFC HEATING FURTHER DESTABILIZES THE

REGION. DEVELOPMENT ALSO MAY BE FOSTERED BY APPROACH OF WEAK

DISTURBANCE NOW NEARING THE TX BIG BEND /PER WV IMAGERY/. WITH

TIME...STORMS SHOULD SPREAD NEWD INTO SE MO AND WRN KY/TN...WHILE

REGENERATIVE ACTIVITY PERSISTS OVER THE ARKLATEX.

AMPLE /2500-3000 J PER KG/ SBCAPE WILL BE PRESENT FOR SUSTAINED

STORMS/SUPERCELLS THROUGH AT LEAST MID EVE GIVEN 50-60 KT WSWLY MID

LVL FLOW ATOP 35-40 KT SSWLY LLJ. THE STORMS MAY EVOLVE INTO

CLUSTERS/LINES POSING A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND DMGG WINDS NEWD

INTO SE MO/WRN KY AND WRN TN. THE POTENTIAL ALSO WILL EXIST FOR A

COUPLE TORNADOES...ESPECIALLY FROM NE TX ENEWD INTO ERN AR FROM

EARLY TO MID EVE.

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Uploaded 17Z Severe Weather Analysis, currently showing Central to Southern AR to NE-E TX as the highest threat for severe weather. Little Rock to Dequeen AR showing the highest instability. Overall areas is showing surface CAPE around 1700 j/kg, LI's are around -6. Potential is there to see winds up to 60 knots and hail up to 1.9" in diameter. Analysis uploaded http://smartwxmodel.net

usa.jpg

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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX

612 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FORT WORTH HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...

DALLAS COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS...

* UNTIL 715 PM CDT

* AT 611 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND

DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR

COCKRELL HILL...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...

DOWNTOWN DALLAS AROUND 635 PM

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Per RUC, the wind fields below about 600mb are very anemic where that severe storm is near Dallas. Wind fields increase dramatically east of there where the tornado watch is. Will be interesting to see what happens as those storms move/develp further eastward where low level shear is considerably better.

RUC forecast sounding for the Dallas area where the one severe storm is now. Note the weak winds below H6.

RUC_255_2011043022_F01_32.5000N_97.0000W.png

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First Tornado Warning....

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA 703 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2011 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SHREVEPORT HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... WOOD COUNTY IN NORTHEAST TEXAS... THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF MINEOLA... * UNTIL 745 PM CDT * AT 703 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO ABOUT 5 MILES WEST OF HAINESVILLE...OR 3 MILES NORTHEAST OF MINEOLA...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH. * OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO QUITMAN...

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TORNADO WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA

826 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SHREVEPORT HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...

CAMP COUNTY IN NORTHEAST TEXAS...

THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...PITTSBURG...LEESBURG...

SOUTHWESTERN MORRIS COUNTY IN NORTHEAST TEXAS...

SOUTHEASTERN TITUS COUNTY IN NORTHEAST TEXAS...

NORTHERN UPSHUR COUNTY IN NORTHEAST TEXAS...

* UNTIL 915 PM CDT

* AT 825 PM CDT...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A TORNADO 8 MILES

SOUTH OF LEESBURG...OR JUST NORTHWEST OF BETTIE...MOVING NORTHEAST

AT 25 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO CEDAR

SPRINGS AND CASON...

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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA 826 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2011 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SHREVEPORT HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... CAMP COUNTY IN NORTHEAST TEXAS... THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...PITTSBURG...LEESBURG... SOUTHWESTERN MORRIS COUNTY IN NORTHEAST TEXAS... SOUTHEASTERN TITUS COUNTY IN NORTHEAST TEXAS... NORTHERN UPSHUR COUNTY IN NORTHEAST TEXAS... * UNTIL 915 PM CDT * AT 825 PM CDT...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A TORNADO 8 MILES SOUTH OF LEESBURG...OR JUST NORTHWEST OF BETTIE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

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Looks like the storm finished cycling and is in the process of trying to produce. May take another cycle but this one could get the job done. It's just about to move into a much better environment. Right now it's on the western edge of the better low level wind shear. The combination of the LLJ about to ramp up, and this storm moving east into it should make it go pretty crazy over the next few hours.

RUC_255_2011050100_F02_WSPD_925_MB.png

Some pretty nice theta-e feeding into this thing as well...

RUC_255_2011050100_F02_THTE_925_MB.png

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA 927 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2011 ..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON... ..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.... ..REMARKS.. 0925 PM TORNADO HUGHES SPRINGS 33.00N 94.63W 04/30/2011 CASS TX LAW ENFORCEMENT STATE TROOPER REPORTS TORNADO ON THE GROUND AND GOLF BALL SIZED HAIL

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lolwut

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA

NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST TEXAS

EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY MORNING FROM 445 AM UNTIL NOON CDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1.7 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND

GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE

AREAS.

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lolwut

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA

NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST TEXAS

EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY MORNING FROM 445 AM UNTIL NOON CDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1.7 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND

GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE

AREAS.

Typo?
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