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Predicting Tornadoes: It’s Still Guessing Game


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"If scientists cannot be sure — or trusted, as doubters of climate change might say — then where should an ordinary person on the ground turn for solace or strength in the raging maw of a storm?"

I don't think anyone was not warned.

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Not a very good article in my view. This was obviously going to be large outbreak and most storms seemed to have a warning with them, especially the bigger longer lived ones. The trouble is for some people there is no where to go and an ef4 or 5 will pretty much take the house down even if you are on the lowest floor in an interior room with no windows and in the south few have storm cellars.

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Though it's not a very good article overall, I do find the vague premise interesting: in a world dominated by human technology, science and information, it can be quite unsettling to discover some things are still unpredictable and out of our control.

Most things in nature are unpredictable.

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The longer term pattern and the model forecasts were suggesting this potential well in advance.

The Euro from at least 192 hrs before was keying in on this.The NWS and SPC were issuing

statements regarding the potential last weekend.

000FLUS44 KBMX 241201HWOBMXHAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOKNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL700 AM CDT SUN APR 24 2011ALZ011>015-017>050-251200-AUTAUGA-BARBOUR-BIBB-BLOUNT-BULLOCK-CALHOUN-CHAMBERS-CHEROKEE-CHILTON-CLAY-CLEBURNE-COOSA-DALLAS-ELMORE-ETOWAH-FAYETTE-GREENE-HALE-JEFFERSON-LAMAR-LEE-LOWNDES-MACON-MARENGO-MARION-MONTGOMERY-PERRY-PICKENS-PIKE-RANDOLPH-RUSSELL-SHELBY-ST CLAIR-SUMTER-TALLADEGA-TALLAPOOSA-TUSCALOOSA-WALKER-WINSTON-700 AM CDT SUN APR 24 2011THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE COUNTIES SERVED BY THENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BIRMINGHAM..DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME..DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY...MAINLY ACROSS THENORTHWESTERN COUNTIES...AND THEN AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY FOR THE ENTIREAREA AS THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH. CONFIDENCE IS SLOWLYINCREASING FOR THESE EVENTS WITH DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDSEXPECTED TO BE THE MAIN THREAT ON TUESDAY. ALL MODES OF SEVEREWEATHER ARE POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY...INCLUDING TORNADOES...STRAIGHTLINE WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.STRONG GRADIENT WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAYAHEAD OF FRONT AND OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. SUSTAINED WINDSOF 15 TO 25 MPH ALONG WITH HIGHER GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH ARE POSSIBLE..SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT MAY BE NEEDEDNEXT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY DUE TO THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE STORMS.$08/MNK

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It is annoying whenever someone brings up climate change in the context of a single, big weather event. Like someone above said, it's definitely a clue that the writer is not informed.

But I don't want to make this a climate-change discussion.

This aside, the NYT coverage of the outbreak has been thorough and excellent, with lots of maps, imagery, and articles from various angles.

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It is annoying whenever someone brings up climate change in the context of a single, big weather event. Like someone above said, it's definitely a clue that the writer is not informed.

But I don't want to make this a climate-change discussion.

This aside, the NYT coverage of the outbreak has been thorough and excellent, with lots of maps, imagery, and articles from various angles.

Man thanks.

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Most things in nature are unpredictable.

To an extent, yes. But overall, we are able to predict a lot of things in nature much better than in the past, thanks to increased technology and knowledge.

Just reading some of the posts on here, you can tell that it seems unfathomable to many people that something like this can still happen in this day and age. I think people sometimes have a false sense of security in this information age. We are able to quickly and easily access an unbelievable amount of information/media from around the world, using our computer, our phone, etc...and science has advanced to the point where people expect an explanation for anything.

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To an extent, yes. But overall, we are able to predict a lot of things in nature much better than in the past, thanks to increased technology and knowledge.

Just reading some of the posts on here, you can tell that it seem unfathomable to many people that something like this can still happen in this day and age. I think people sometimes have a false sense of security in this information age. We are able to quickly and easily access an unbelievable amount of information/media from around the world, using our computer, our phone, etc...and science has advanced to the point where people expect an explanation for anything.

What happened?

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It is annoying whenever someone brings up climate change in the context of a single, big weather event. Like someone above said, it's definitely a clue that the writer is not informed.

But I don't want to make this a climate-change discussion.

This aside, the NYT coverage of the outbreak has been thorough and excellent, with lots of maps, imagery, and articles from various angles.

At least he made the La Nina connection.

But the attempt to draw a line to global warming was completely cliche and clearly had no real basis.

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Hundreds of people were killed in a U.S. tornadic outbreak.

Yes, but they were warned ahead of time by the best available science. This event was well progged days in advance. There is nothing unfathomable about that. I guess the part that is disconcerting is that no matter what action you take, nature can still kill you.

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Yes, but they were warned ahead of time by the best available science. This event was well progged days in advance. There is nothing unfathomable about that. I guess the part that is disconcerting is that no matter what action you take, nature can still kill you.

Exactly. My point is just that...despite all of our technology/science/information, there are some things that are unpredictable (we didn't know when/where exactly the tornadoes would form or what track they would take) and uncontrollable. And this a humbling and frightening reminder for many people.

I'm fully aware that the warnings were there and the forecasts were excellent. I don't think there is anyone to blame. But people always want answers when something like this happens.

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Exactly. My point is just that...despite all of our technology/science/information, there are some things that are unpredictable (we didn't know when/where exactly the tornadoes would form or what track they would take) and uncontrollable. And this a humbling and frightening reminder for many people.

I'm fully aware that the warnings were there and the forecasts were excellent. I don't think there is anyone to blame. But people always want answers when something like this happens.

Backstory: if isohume even suspects you might be even coming within 1,000 mi of a slight criticism of the forecasting for the event-- which you weren't doing-- he tends to freak out. It's not personal.

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Exactly. My point is just that...despite all of our technology/science/information, there are some things that are unpredictable (we didn't know when/where exactly the tornadoes would form or what track they would take) and uncontrollable. And this a humbling and frightening reminder for many people.

I'm fully aware that the warnings were there and the forecasts were excellent. I don't think there is anyone to blame. But people always want answers when something like this happens.

I'm not sure who is looking for answers. I haven't seen the blame game employed...not yet. And not that it wont be. The only place that would have been safe from some of those tors would have been underground shelters. I imagine bunker sales will pick up significantly in the next couple weeks. There is always something to learn from every storm in many areas.

We (society) are not experts at any of this by any means. In the meantime, societal norms and scientific gains will have to keep building upon themselves.

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laughable

Agreed. You thought tacoman was getting critical-- which he totally wasn't-- and your panties started to get in a wad about it. Not the end of the world-- but perhaps something to be mindful of.

Anyhoo, let's not get into this here-- it is a wx thread.

Back on topic... The warnings were excellent; people knew about this thread days out. As I said last night, the earth is a violent place and sometimes people just get in the way of these natural processes. When EF4/EF5 tornadoes plow into populated areas, people are going to die. It is what it is.

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