RaleighWx Posted April 29, 2011 Share Posted April 29, 2011 Hi Folks, Thought I would post a link to my summer/hurricane forecasts. Thanks for reading. http://www.examiner....r-2011-forecast http://www.examiner....ricane-forecast The slideshow has all the images for the forecasts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted April 29, 2011 Share Posted April 29, 2011 I can't see the slides, but Josh will like 1989 and 2005 as analog years, and your model site is a great public service. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted April 29, 2011 Author Share Posted April 29, 2011 I can't see the slides, but Josh will like 1989 and 2005 as analog years, and your model site is a great public service. The examiner site is kind of slow. On the left there should be a pic to click on and load the slideshow. Sorry, this medium isnt always the best. Thanks for the kind words on the model site. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flwxwatcher45 Posted April 29, 2011 Share Posted April 29, 2011 Hi Folks, Thought I would post a link to my summer/hurricane forecasts. Thanks for reading. http://www.examiner....r-2011-forecast http://www.examiner....ricane-forecast The slideshow has all the images for the forecasts. Nice write-up. I agree with Ed, your model site is a great public service!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted April 29, 2011 Share Posted April 29, 2011 Nice write-up Allan, as usual. Mostly agree with your calls, although I think SE FL won't have an increased risk (against climo, which is high anyways). SE FL usually likes a little warmer ENSO and a stronger +NAO signal, though a stronger/displaced Bermuda ridge is possible, a Niña like pattern tend to anchor a ridge over FL, which would prevent a favorable SE FL track pattern. But like you said, weather patterns are very hard to predict with this much anticipation, and they are only educated guesses at this lead time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted April 29, 2011 Share Posted April 29, 2011 Your ENSO analogs, showing hurricanes... note that N GOM is well above climo risk and SE coast is probably slightly above normal...but SE FL is probably near normal, or even below normal. A strong +NAO could probably trump this, but IMO, that's not a very likely outcome this hurricane season. But overall, I think we'll have similar numbers, plus similar high risk zones. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted April 29, 2011 Share Posted April 29, 2011 Cool hurricane forecast, Allan-- it was a good, interesting read! Thanks for posting it. The landfall areas look interesting-- particularly the Carolinas. NC consistently gets action from unraveling cyclones because of how it sticks out into the Atlantic, so I hardly take note of that-- it seems almost climatologically safe to call for NC action. But the suggestion of SC action is intriguing. SC gets hit much less frequently, but it tends to get real whoppers when it does-- thee majors 1885-1893, Hazel 1954 (Cat 3 for SC, 4 for NC), Gracie 1959 (Cat 3), Hugo 1989 (Cat 4)-- so I find the idea of SC action interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted April 29, 2011 Share Posted April 29, 2011 Nice write-up Allan, as usual. No lovin' for MX. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted April 29, 2011 Share Posted April 29, 2011 No lovin' for MX. Not sure if Allan's forecast is more US-centric or that he thinks MX or other CA/Carib countries are at normal/below risk. My take is that Leeward islands and GA are at above normal, especially Cuba, with near normal to slightly above normal for MX (for both, Tamaulipas and Yucatan). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted April 29, 2011 Author Share Posted April 29, 2011 Your ENSO analogs, showing hurricanes... note that N GOM is well above climo risk and SE coast is probably slightly above normal...but SE FL is probably near normal, or even below normal. A strong +NAO could probably trump this, but IMO, that's not a very likely outcome this hurricane season. But overall, I think we'll have similar numbers, plus similar high risk zones. Thanks for the input. I tacked on SE Florida at the end but it is the lowest confidence area of the three. By the way what is the site you used to generate the above graphic. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted April 29, 2011 Share Posted April 29, 2011 Not sure if Allan's forecast is more US-centric or that he thinks MX or other CA/Carib countries are at normal/below risk. My take is that Leeward islands are at above normal, especially Cuba, with near normal to slightly above normal for MX (for both, Tamaulipas and Yucatan). I was just teasing. I think Allan's forecast was only for the USA-- thus no shading for MX. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted April 29, 2011 Author Share Posted April 29, 2011 I was just teasing. I think Allan's forecast was only for the USA-- thus no shading for MX. Correct, focus mostly on US. I do think the Leewarda as well as the Greater Antilles would see above normal as well as the Yucatan. Probably normal for western Mexican Gulf Coast. The analog years suggests early recurves, close passes to the southeast coast, and Caribbean runners into the Gulf that will be favored to re-curve towards the central Gulf Coast. But of course, it is difficult to predict. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted April 29, 2011 Share Posted April 29, 2011 Thanks for the input. I tacked on SE Florida at the end but it is the lowest confidence area of the three. By the way what is the site you used to generate the above graphic. Thanks. Fair enough I use this plotter (shameless plug insert ) http://db.hellohelp....torm_search.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted April 29, 2011 Author Share Posted April 29, 2011 Fair enough I use this plotter (shameless plug insert ) http://db.hellohelp....torm_search.php Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted April 29, 2011 Share Posted April 29, 2011 Liking the 16 NS, but having a 10-3 spread between H-MH would be sad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted May 2, 2011 Share Posted May 2, 2011 Nice outlooks, aside from 06', your named storm predictions have been pretty spot on, even without a range. Hoping we get some east coast action this year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted May 3, 2011 Share Posted May 3, 2011 I'm pretty pumped about the cooler than normal summer expected. I golf all the time and last year was rough, 25 days up here in the 90s is not ideal for golfing and with a very dull weather pattern sailing on Lake Erie was basically like floating with the lack of wind. I'll admit though if this hurricane season pans out anything like 2005 then The Weather Channel will most likely set a record for most viewers in a year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bkviking Posted May 7, 2011 Share Posted May 7, 2011 Based upon what LC has been stating about the highly active storminess since Dec from the ITCZ to South America being a sign of upcoming activity for coastal US is there a way to verify whether that has any meaning for this season? Are there any statistics, climatology or documented observations that this situation leads to more threatening activity? I'm curious, bc as we entered last year, LC was conservative due to late start to season while many on this board rightly predicted a big season (which in fact happened, although basically useless save Josh's adventure to Mexico which was great to watch and follow)? I know SSTs anomalies are much lower than last year save GOM, but does hyperactive ITCZ in off season leading into hurricane season statistically lead to greater threats, at this point in time? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rainstorm Posted May 7, 2011 Share Posted May 7, 2011 Based upon what LC has been stating about the highly active storminess since Dec from the ITCZ to South America being a sign of upcoming activity for coastal US is there a way to verify whether that has any meaning for this season? Are there any statistics, climatology or documented observations that this situation leads to more threatening activity? I'm curious, bc as we entered last year, LC was conservative due to late start to season while many on this board rightly predicted a big season (which in fact happened, although basically useless save Josh's adventure to Mexico which was great to watch and follow)? I know SSTs anomalies are much lower than last year save GOM, but does hyperactive ITCZ in off season leading into hurricane season statistically lead to greater threats, at this point in time? LC was far better than anyone else last year. he said no US cane hits. considering the numbers, thats the greatest call in cane forecast history. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted May 7, 2011 Share Posted May 7, 2011 LC was far better than anyone else last year. he said no US cane hits. considering the numbers, thats the greatest call in cane forecast history. ...because his forecast was for 12 storms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
matthewweatherwatcher Posted May 8, 2011 Share Posted May 8, 2011 LC was far better than anyone else last year. he said no US cane hits. considering the numbers, thats the greatest call in cane forecast history. True about the no hurricane landfall part, but Earl came damn close and Hermine if it where to have set-up 50 miles east when it pulled that northward movement likely would of been a texas canes. Very close... His call of 12? was 7 to low too. I'm not saying that first prediction wasn't right, but it was damn close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bkviking Posted May 8, 2011 Share Posted May 8, 2011 Oh, LC is great, as are many here are. I know he gave up on a big season last year despite SSTs and incoming la Nina, but it's somewhat irrelevant. What I am curious about is that he has been touting for some months about the active ITCZ and its impact on the hurricane season and coastal impacts in particular. I mean, JB has his own theories why there is higher likelihood for east coast strikes this year, despite fewer storms, but his theory is differebr than LCs which seems to be that an active ITCZ non-season leads to active in-season activity. I'm curious about whether there are observations to back that up. Basically, I want to hear from the experts and even the great observers about whether that's valid. For me, it seems logical, but I dont know, since warm SSTs early on last year didn't lead do an active early start to season, which exploded later on (for the fish). In other words, I haven't heard anyone counter argue his assertion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted May 12, 2011 Share Posted May 12, 2011 I'll take a less active season with more relevant storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 12, 2011 Share Posted May 12, 2011 Something brewing at the end of the latest GFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted June 7, 2011 Share Posted June 7, 2011 better luck next summer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted June 8, 2011 Author Share Posted June 8, 2011 better luck next summer LOL. We shall see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted June 8, 2011 Share Posted June 8, 2011 I wonder who is winning the penny per click spam war. OEM or Raleigh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 8, 2011 Share Posted June 8, 2011 I wonder who is winning the penny per click spam war. OEM or Raleigh? oem gets a lot of press from the dc superclique Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted June 8, 2011 Share Posted June 8, 2011 LOL. We shall see. I trust your forecasts alot more than zwyts! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted July 5, 2011 Author Share Posted July 5, 2011 June forecast didnt turn out too badly. I had the general idea right but was too warm in the southwest and not cool enough in the NW. However, I think I will be too cool in the east for July, although I think the general anomaly pattern will favor the hottest anomalies in the inter-mountains west, High Plains when all is said and done for July. Actual June June Forecast from 4/30 July Forecas tfrom 4/30 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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