Typhoon Tip Posted April 29, 2011 Author Share Posted April 29, 2011 Considering the Niña analogs, the sudden stratospheric warming, and the large model consensus on the developing NAO blocking, I think I would favor a cooler than normal May in the Northeast, with particularly large negative temperature departures starting Tuesday/Wednesday of next week. With a deep cut-off and 850s near 0C along with heavy rain, the big cities such as NYC and BOS may struggle to get out of the upper 40s, and that's a large temperature anomaly considering the average highs down here are approaching 70F at that point. Typically, spring/early summer Nor'easters create huge below normal readings as the combination of unusually cold upper levels and NE winds off the still chilly Atlantic really limit daytime warming. I remember this happening in early June 2009 with NYC staying in the 50s a bunch of days due to a late-season Nor'easter. I'm not quite sold on how long the 12z GFS keeps the high-latitude blocking in place, as I believe we may see a heat wave late May or early June as we have in some recent La Niñas like 2008 which had a torrid June in an otherwise unremarkable summer for heat. The worst bar none was 2005... It began in the first week of May. The N stream dumped a turd with an air-bubble that refused to flush off the EC.... It just whobbled around the t-bowl from the VA Capes to Cape Cod, then retrograding in an ever repeating loop as successive pieces of addition cold mid level turds with air bubbles got pooped into the backside ...rinse, repeat. Weeks and weeks on end, dude. On at least 2, maybe 3 nights living next to a woods I could here pine trees snap for the might of the 44F gales replete with choking rains. This is no exaggeration; it was about 3 days of mid 40s with wind and sheets of rain, followed by 2 days of murk at 51F, then a new 3 day nor'easter. There was probably like 4 or 5 of them spanning 3 weeks from approximately May 7 through about June 3rd... Come to think about it, I dont' know how we pulled that crap without flooding. Then, it broke. On June 6 the skies severed and all the moisture soared the DP to 70 or better... I think June 7 or 8 was right up there close 100F in a few places, with DP over 70. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted April 29, 2011 Share Posted April 29, 2011 The worst bar none was 2005... It began in the first week of May. The N stream dumped a turd with an air-bubble that refused to flush off the EC.... It just whobbled around the t-bowl from the VA Capes to Cape Cod, then retrograding in an ever repeating loop as successive pieces of addition cold mid level turds with air bubbles got pooped into the backside ...rinse, repeat. Weeks and weeks on end, dude. On at least 2, maybe 3 nights living next to a woods I could here pine trees snap for the might of the 44F gales replete with choking rains. This is no exaggeration; it was about 3 days of mid 40s with wind and sheets of rain, followed by 2 days of murk at 51F, then a new 3 day nor'easter. There was probably like 4 or 5 of them spanning 3 weeks from approximately May 7 through about June 3rd... Come to think about it, I dont' know how we pulled that crap without flooding. Then, it broke. On June 6 the skies severed and all the moisture soared the DP to 70 or better... I think June 7 or 8 was right up there close 100F in a few places, with DP over 70. I know this is the New England thread and I am SOL far from home. That said - I want COLD. I WANT RAIN. I want a stalled out noreaster with torrential rain ala Missouri/Tennessee rains/flooding sans the tornadoes, and a stiff NE breeze with highs near 50 with lows even more refreshing. I damn near DIED in those 69 degree dews we just suffered thru. Better yet ----- I want TWO stalled out noreasters with torrential rainfall and a stiff refreshing breeze Jeb out. Carry on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted April 29, 2011 Author Share Posted April 29, 2011 if we are 1-2 days out and it still looks real for someone i'd be on board for it happening obviously just because May snow is funny...it pisses everyone off and if there's enough of it, can do some decent damage. but if it's just going to be a slow moving cut-off disaster, no thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 29, 2011 Share Posted April 29, 2011 Maple Mauling snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted April 29, 2011 Share Posted April 29, 2011 I know this is the New England thread and I am SOL far from home. That said - I want COLD. I WANT RAIN. I want a stalled out noreaster with torrential rain ala Missouri/Tennessee rains/flooding sans the tornadoes, and a stiff NE breeze with highs near 50 with lows even more refreshing. I damn near DIED in those 69 degree dews we just suffered thru. Better yet ----- I want TWO stalled out noreasters with torrential rainfall and a stiff refreshing breeze Jeb out. Carry on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted April 29, 2011 Share Posted April 29, 2011 Dogwood destroyer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted April 29, 2011 Share Posted April 29, 2011 Maple Mauling snow. Yeah, last year on this date I didn't have power because of heavy wet snow. We lost power early in the storm after about 4" of snow, and the area ended up with 24" at 1,000ft and 18" at 700ft. This was early in the storm and it only got worse. Snowfall this late in the season and into May can be extremely destructive. Some went without power for days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 29, 2011 Share Posted April 29, 2011 Yeah, last year on this date I didn't have power because of heavy wet snow. We lost power early in the storm after about 4" of snow, and the area ended up with 24" at 1,000ft and 18" at 700ft. This was early in the storm and it only got worse. Snowfall this late in the season and into May can be extremely destructive. I remember that well. That was an impressive late season event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted April 29, 2011 Share Posted April 29, 2011 I remember that well. That was an impressive late season event. Imagine if that happened here? lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted April 29, 2011 Share Posted April 29, 2011 Imagine if that happened here? lol. Yeah if that storm that hit us last year on this date, actually hit a densely populated area it would've been absolute mayhem. I mean, even 200ft elevations near BTV had up to 6" of sopping wet snow out of that storm. BTV's snow to water ratio was 4-5:1... that's how you bring down trees, lol. Here's Worcester, MA next week... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 29, 2011 Share Posted April 29, 2011 I've seen polaroid pics from the fam, of the snow on patio furniture from the May '77 storm. Pretty impressive with a backdrop of green leaves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted April 29, 2011 Share Posted April 29, 2011 I've seen polaroid pics from the fam, of the snow on patio furniture from the May '77 storm. Pretty impressive with a backdrop of green leaves. Those would be sick to see... anyone know of any '77 storm photos online? Google searches come up pretty empty. Don S's website has one shot from Winchester, CT: http://wintercenter.homestead.com/photomay1977.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted April 29, 2011 Share Posted April 29, 2011 Imagine if that happened here? lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted April 29, 2011 Share Posted April 29, 2011 Somehow Pete and Powderfreak will get snow. I'm outta here! Enjoy the weekend Elev. FTW. Hope it happens to take it to 8 straight months with a trace or better of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted April 29, 2011 Share Posted April 29, 2011 Those would be sick to see... anyone know of any '77 storm photos online? Google searches come up pretty empty. Don S's website has one shot from Winchester, CT: http://wintercenter....otomay1977.html I've never seen a lot of good '77 pics on the web. Only that Winchester, CT one. My grandparents had pics that I saw years ago from that storm in ORH and they were pretty sick. I also recall seeing a pic from Boston Common with tulips buried...that was an old newspaper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted April 29, 2011 Share Posted April 29, 2011 Back on planet earth another gem today, clouds just now rolling in and no storms whatsoever. April torch continues. Best spring ever rolls on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted April 29, 2011 Share Posted April 29, 2011 Back on planet earth another gem today, clouds just now rolling in and no storms whatsoever. April torch continues. Best spring ever rolls on. Dude, everybody was having a good time talking about the chance for a glorious May snowfall and you come in here and spoil it with talk of sun and warmth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted April 29, 2011 Share Posted April 29, 2011 Dude, everybody was having a good time talking about the chance for a glorious May snowfall and you come in here and spoil it with talk of sun and warmth. By the way you are almost +4 for the month of April, thats one hell of a torch, hope your golf game is as hot! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted April 29, 2011 Share Posted April 29, 2011 Its either going to be 40F rain.drizzle or maybe a chance at some snow next week, we might as well hope the more fun solution verifies. Its going to be nasty cold either way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted April 29, 2011 Share Posted April 29, 2011 By the way you are almost +4 for the month of April, thats one hell of a torch, hope your golf game is as hot! I doubt it. It hasn't been the tropical April here that you seem to be having. If you continue to taunt me I'll post another AK pic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted April 29, 2011 Share Posted April 29, 2011 I've never seen a lot of good '77 pics on the web. Only that Winchester, CT one. My grandparents had pics that I saw years ago from that storm in ORH and they were pretty sick. I also recall seeing a pic from Boston Common with tulips buried...that was an old newspaper. It exists in the camera of my memory. I distinctly remember the branches being bent and broken. Most tree damage I had seen other than Gloria and Dec 2008 Ice Storm. Amazing that we had that event then a few months later... May 77 is my oldest weather memory, snow day in May Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted April 29, 2011 Share Posted April 29, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted April 29, 2011 Share Posted April 29, 2011 Its either going to be 40F rain.drizzle or maybe a chance at some snow next week, we might as well hope the more fun solution verifies. Its going to be nasty cold either way. How many days next week are gonna be that bad? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted April 29, 2011 Share Posted April 29, 2011 Sweet!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted April 29, 2011 Share Posted April 29, 2011 Wachusett set to open next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bigbob Posted April 30, 2011 Share Posted April 30, 2011 Wachusett set to open next week So will this be the start of the 2011/2012 season or part of last season? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted April 30, 2011 Share Posted April 30, 2011 So will this be the start of the 2011/2012 season or part of last season? I've got to clear out my sig. At least there is something not heartbreaking to watch (tornadoes... Poor folks in the south) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted April 30, 2011 Share Posted April 30, 2011 I doubt it. It hasn't been the tropical April here that you seem to be having. If you continue to taunt me I'll post another AK pic. Well, you are wrong. sorry, enjoy the beautiful weekend!! Looks like 80s and humid starting next weekend!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted April 30, 2011 Share Posted April 30, 2011 Its either going to be 40F rain.drizzle or maybe a chance at some snow next week, we might as well hope the more fun solution verifies. Its going to be nasty cold either way. Hey Wil! Looks like 59 is the lowest maximum down this way according to the NWS, and partly sunny with low 60s the rest of the week, I guess you guys up there are screwed with rain and 40s to near 50? That is just brutal, thank God I live in the southern hemisphere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted April 30, 2011 Share Posted April 30, 2011 nao forecasts haven't been that great, at least by the gfes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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