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Something fresh to talk about may even include snow in the elevations

Typhoon Tip

By Typhoon Tip,
in New England

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
Posted

Facts to prove this theory incorrect.

4/3 +2

4/4 +4

4/5+5

4/11 +15

4/12 +8

4/14 +7

april has hardly been warm only in the last week at central park?

Haha, yeah I know 4/11 was really warm (that was +21F at BTV up here)... and there were some seasonably mild days in there, but there were also some cool days in there as well.

Honestly I'd call this April "average to slightly above." I still wouldn't say this was a "warm" April relatively to average.

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HoarfrostHubb

HoarfrostHubb

Posted
Posted

Personally I dont like temps in the 80s and 90s in april, I prefer a "spring where temps are close to or a little above normal" I enjoy the transition of the seasons, and this april in my mind has been perfect, here, many days in the 70's, some cool days but NO cold nights, not even a 32 down here, so yeah to me thats just about as good as it gets in sne.

Although, I think we absolutely torch in June, then look out, BIg east coast tropical season with the position of the Bermuda High........

My point is, it can be A LOT WORSE in April across sne, this has been a fantastic month of weather..................JMHO :snowman:

April 1st was the best Hold off on big time torches until June 24 please

:sizzle:

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
Posted

Personally I dont like temps in the 80s and 90s in april, I prefer a "spring where temps are close to or a little above normal" I enjoy the transition of the seasons, and this april in my mind has been perfect, here, many days in the 70's, some cool days but NO cold nights, not even a 32 down here, so yeah to me thats just about as good as it gets in sne.

Although, I think we absolutely torch in June, then look out, BIg east coast tropical season with the position of the Bermuda High........

My point is, it can be A LOT WORSE in April across sne, this has been a fantastic month of weather..................JMHO :snowman:

We can agree on that one :thumbsup: I personally liked the temps this April, but wish it could've been a bit more dry. It seemed like our positive departures up here were from rain storms (its been incredibly wet up here) and SSW flow events, as opposed to dry heat on a WNW flow like last April.

Hey its been fun actually having a conversation about weather for a change, lol. This time of year its a stretch to get something to debate about ;)

And for the record, here's Central Park's climo form for this April so far... definitely more positive departures in there than negatives, especially the last 4 days.

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Mr Torchey

Mr Torchey

Posted
Posted

We can agree on that one :thumbsup: I personally liked the temps this April, but wish it could've been a bit more dry. It seemed like our positive departures up here were from rain storms (its been incredibly wet up here) and SSW flow events, as opposed to dry heat on a WNW flow like last April.

Hey its been fun actually having a conversation about weather for a change, lol. This time of year its a stretch to get something to debate about ;)

And for the record, here's Central Park's climo form for this April so far...

looks pretty warm :lmao:

Im just bustin ............

Good luck on the snow next week, sorry to hear about the devestating flooding across parts of VT that are never broadcast but yet happen

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
Posted

looks pretty warm :lmao:

Im just bustin ............

Good luck on the snow next week, sorry to hear about the devestating flooding across parts of VT that are never broadcast but yet happen

:lol: Yeah it does look pretty warm... I was just in a devil's advocate type of mood and looking for something to discuss.

And I truly think we are all done with snow up here for the season. I could see a dusting-2" above 3,000ft or some white trees from rime, but its over (my gut feeling, regardless of this topic title).

Aside from temps, I think we can both agree its been a WET month... 5.04" so far at Central Park, and 6.95" up here at BTV. :drunk:

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jconsor

jconsor

Posted
Posted

Getting back on topic, the Wed-Thu storm appears to be a legitimate threat for snow in higher elevations. Despite the HPC's skepticism on a slower, more cut off low aloft, model consensus is growing toward that idea. The 0z UKMET and Euro both have a deepening coastal low along with ~546 dm upper low dragging down some of the ridiculously cold air (for early May) from eastern Canada. 2 of the GFS ensemble members are similar:

post-88-0-07826400-1304064546.jpg

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dendrite

dendrite

Posted
Posted

Getting back on topic, the Wed-Thu storm appears to be a legitimate threat for snow in higher elevations. Despite the HPC's skepticism on a slower, more cut off low aloft, model consensus is growing toward that idea. The 0z UKMET and Euro both have a deepening coastal low along with ~546 dm upper low dragging down some of the ridiculously cold air (for early May) from eastern Canada. 2 of the GFS ensemble members are similar:

post-88-0-07826400-1304064546.jpg

There aren't enough LOLs for that P002 member. If that verified I'm not sure if I'd jump for joy or start opening fire on kittens.
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dendrite

dendrite

Posted
Posted

The 0z UKMET and Euro both have a deepening coastal low along with ~546 dm upper low dragging down some of the ridiculously cold air (for early May) from eastern Canada.

I just saw the EC. Jesus. The ens mean is a bit warmer, but that's no surprise given out extreme the Op is.

My b'day is on the 4th...happy b'day to me?

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Damage In Tolland

Damage In Tolland

Posted
Posted

Once the back of current warm departures break synoptically it may not return for a while.

The CPC indicates every member below 0.00 SD in the NAO, with some over -2SD negative by D10 on a gradual decent beginning now and end as: http://www.cpc.ncep....index_ensm.html

This is interesting for me because the modest in magnitude by comparison -PNA, actually during that interval shows a small positive run-up, best displayed at the CDC: http://www.esrl.noaa.../compare.pn.png

Now the D8-10 means of both the ECM and GFS (PSU E-Wall) are showing a wonderful REX type configuration evolving with a negative -NAO counter-balancing negative geopotential medium along the MA. In the midst of winter certain members of this board would be handing out lollypops naked to nuns with this. But it early May in most likely means some cooler times ahead. I find it intriguing enough, however, because we have been taught several times in the past that it can snow all the way up to May 22nd (latest I've personally witnessed). As we all well know, there are some in the annuls that were down right absurd. If it is going to catch the elevations in the very least you want a crashing NAO with a rising PNA as a start. The PNA correlation on the field is fast waning, but the NAO lingers statistically through May, and seeing it be the more robustly departed of the two is a chilly vibe.

The ECM operational model has off and on over the past few cycles been tantalizingly close to closing off a mid level vortex in our vicinity, with sufficiently cold partial thickness values to be curious during the period of time in question. The D6 GFS has a cold rain nor'easter at this point, too. This may be new as a depiction, but it is not new relative to the above described background canvas.

Personal druthers aside, I still do like to ferret out the anomalies. For now, just some intriguing suggestions out there per multi-day signal in the teleconnector spread, combined with a few reach-around solutions by the operational queens.

:lmao: :lmao: LOL..Tippy..this was one of the best

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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what an impressive euro run

mm, interesting indeed - but, honestly ... after scanning the teleconnector spread yesterday I really can't say I am surprise this solution emerged overnight. I also see some vague semblance to it in the operational GFS - clearly we have in the least improved chances for drilling cold vort maxes under LI. It will be an interesting run at 12z, no doubt.

Saw at least 2 GFS members with hefty interior snow threats - one of which was historical.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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...THE PRELIM PRESSURES AND FRONTS USED

A VARIED BLEND OF THE 00Z OPERATIONAL ECMWF AND THE 12Z/28 ECMWF

ENSEMBLE MEAN...WITH ABOUT 70 PERCENT OF THE ENSEMBLE MEAN USED BY

DAY 7. THIS APPROACH ALLOWS A COLD FRONT TO CROSS THE WEST DAYS

3-4/MON-TUE BEFORE SLOWING...AND ALLOWS LOW PRESSURE TO DEVELOP

ALONG A DECELERATING FRONTAL SYSTEM ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST DAY

4/TUE. THIS SYSTEM THEN DEEPENS ALONG THE EAST COAST DAYS

5-6/WED-THU.

JAMES/FLOOD

I wold also add that diving NAO values do not support the progressive appeal, so the GFS cluster is inherently in conflict with its own EOFs... Doesn't lend a lot of support to lowering amplitude. Interesting.

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