Something fresh to talk about may even include snow in the elevations

[Typhoon Tip]

Once the back of current warm departures break synoptically it may not return for a while.

The CPC indicates every member below 0.00 SD in the NAO, with some over -2SD negative by D10 on a gradual decent beginning now and end as: http://www.cpc.ncep....index_ensm.html

This is interesting for me because the modest in magnitude by comparison -PNA, actually during that interval shows a small positive run-up, best displayed at the CDC: http://www.esrl.noaa.../compare.pn.png

Now the D8-10 means of both the ECM and GFS (PSU E-Wall) are showing a wonderful REX type configuration evolving with a negative -NAO counter-balancing negative geopotential medium along the MA. In the midst of winter certain members of this board would be handing out lollypops naked to nuns with this. But it early May in most likely means some cooler times ahead. I find it intriguing enough, however, because we have been taught several times in the past that it can snow all the way up to May 22nd (latest I've personally witnessed). As we all well know, there are some in the annuls that were down right absurd. If it is going to catch the elevations in the very least you want a crashing NAO with a rising PNA as a start. The PNA correlation on the field is fast waning, but the NAO lingers statistically through May, and seeing it be the more robustly departed of the two is a chilly vibe.

The ECM operational model has off and on over the past few cycles been tantalizingly close to closing off a mid level vortex in our vicinity, with sufficiently cold partial thickness values to be curious during the period of time in question. The D6 GFS has a cold rain nor'easter at this point, too. This may be new as a depiction, but it is not new relative to the above described background canvas.

Personal druthers aside, I still do like to ferret out the anomalies. For now, just some intriguing suggestions out there per multi-day signal in the teleconnector spread, combined with a few reach-around solutions by the operational queens.

[Ginx snewx]

Once the back of current warm departures break synoptically it may not return for a while.

The CPC indicates every member below 0.00 SD in the NAO, with some over -2SD negative by D10 on a gradual decent beginning now and end as: http://www.cpc.ncep....index_ensm.html

This is interesting for me because the modest in magnitude by comparison -PNA, actually during that interval shows a small positive run-up, best displayed at the CDC: http://www.esrl.noaa.../compare.pn.png

Now the D8-10 means of both the ECM and GFS (PSU E-Wall) are showing a wonderful REX type configuration evolving with a negative -NAO counter-balancing negative geopotential medium along the MA. In the midst of winter certain members of this board would be handing out lollypops naked to nuns with this. But it early May in most likely means some cooler times ahead. I find it intriguing enough, however, because we have been taught several times in the past that it can snow all the way up to May 22nd (latest I've personally witnessed) with as we all well know, there are some in the annuls that were down right absurd. If it is going to catch the elevations in the very least you want a crashing NAO with a rising PNA as a start.

The ECM operational model has off and on over the past few cycles been tantalizingly close to closing off a mid level vortex in our vicinity, with sufficiently cold partial thickness values to be curious during the period of time in question. The, D6 GFS has a cold rain nor'easter at this point, too. This may be new as a depiction, but it is not new relative to the above described background canvas.

Personal druthers aside, I still do like to ferret out the anomalies. For now, just some intriguing suggestions out there per multi-day signal in the teleconnector spread, combined with a few reach-around solutions by the operational queens.

Eventually the sick negative SD's in NCanada were going to influence our weather dramatically. I could argue they have in various ways but it's hammer time me thinks. Sucks as Bball season starts next week.

[HoarfrostHubb]

Eventually the sick negative SD's in NCanada were going to influence our weather dramatically. I could argue they have in various ways but it's hammer time me thinks. Sucks as Bball season starts next week.

At some point it will flip over, but for now, la epic is still alive

[Mr Torchey]

What a warm April, lots of rain and warm sun to promote a beautiful landscape this month. I look forward to the above outcome if it comes to fruition, all it means for 99% of sne is daytime highs in the 60's and lows in the 40's just perfect and normal springtime weather in sne!! :sun:

[nzucker]

What a warm April, lots of rain and warm sun to promote a beautiful landscape this month. I look forward to the above outcome if it comes to fruition, all it means for 99% of sne is daytime highs in the 60's and lows in the 40's just perfect and normal springtime weather in sne!! :sun:

This is going to produce a high in the 60s?

[Mr Torchey]

This is going to produce a high in the 60s?

Was it warm enough for you sun-wed? Looks like april will come in as a torch, cold april still working for ya smokey? Good luck with that model presentation LOL

[HoarfrostHubb]

What a warm April, lots of rain and warm sun to promote a beautiful landscape this month. I look forward to the above outcome if it comes to fruition, all it means for 99% of sne is daytime highs in the 60's and lows in the 40's just perfect and normal springtime weather in sne!! :sun:

You are reveling in this stuff

[Mr Torchey]

You are reveling in this stuff

for smokeys world only facts~

central park +1.4 for april

BDR +1.1 for april

JFK +1.5 for april

EWR +2.7 for april

[nzucker]

Was it warm enough for you sun-wed? Looks like april will come in as a torch, cold april still working for ya smokey? Good luck with that model presentation LOL

It was warm, but no absurdly high temperatures like 2010 or 2009. Just a rainy month this year with mild, cloudy nights in a dirty warm sector. Landscape has become vividly colored here in Dobbs Ferry, however, with the well-timed combination of rains and warmth...tons of magnolias, lilacs, cherries all in peak bloom right now. Vegetable garden not liking this heavy rain though, had some nearly 1" amounts in Westchester today, AGAIN...want the soil to dry out to avoid the dreaded slugs and accompanying beer plates.

Totally different pattern coming though with the NAO having a steep drop from its generally positive stretch. Looks as if the next two storms will track to the Southeast with arctic air trying to plunge to Hudson Bay/Quebec. Someone should see some last snowfalls in New England in the next two weeks. Can we get Mansfield back to 100" at the stake?

[powderfreak]

After two days of dew points hovering around 60F, I'm all set with warmth for a little bit. We have been lacking days where its been mild (60s) but with very low Tds... this time of year I want red flag weather. But if I can't have that, I'll take highs in the 40s over highs in the 70s. Its too early to be sweating while just sitting watching a Red Sox game. Plus, as long as the Bruins are still playing hockey, lets keep it cold. Chilly nights with hockey on TV and I can almost trick myself that its still winter.

With that said, this time of year it is getting exponentially harder for it to snow with each passing week... even up at 4,000ft around here. What does make any late season flake threat interesting though, is that it is the time of year where anything can happen with a deep enough mid-level low. It can snow in the Catskills or Berkshires and rain in the Adirondacks & Greens... its all about dynamics. Like May 18, 2002 when I had 2.2" in Albany at 200ft but yet it rained on Mount Mansfield at 4,000ft.

Climatologically speaking, we should be done with snow up here now... after last year's 1-2 foot snowstorm on April 28-29th, the law of averages says we won't see a significant late season snow for quite some time.

[Mr Torchey]

poughkeepsie ny +3.6 for april

ORH +1.8 for april

even boston which has been backdoored still above normal, pvd above normal.

smokey, just admit, its been warmer than normal!!!

Cutoff whatever next week, looks like normal spring weather to me!!!!!!!

[Mr Torchey]

TORCH

[HoarfrostHubb]

for smokeys world only facts~

central park +1.4 for april

BDR +1.1 for april

JFK +1.5 for april

EWR +2.7 for april

ORH is +1.8 ... not bad

[HoarfrostHubb]

poughkeepsie ny +3.6 for april

ORH +1.8 for april

even boston which has been backdoored still above normal, pvd above normal.

smokey, just admit, its been warmer than normal!!!

Cutoff whatever next week, looks like normal spring weather to me!!!!!!!

Oops! Yu beat me

April 11,24,26,27 were all way above for here

[nzucker]

poughkeepsie ny +3.6 for april

ORH +1.8 for april

even boston which has been backdoored still above normal, pvd above normal.

smokey, just admit, its been warmer than normal!!!

Cutoff whatever next week, looks like normal spring weather to me!!!!!!!

I don't understand how the temperature departure for April influences the pattern next week?

[powderfreak]

for smokeys world only facts~

central park +1.4 for april

BDR +1.1 for april

JFK +1.5 for april

EWR +2.7 for april

The Central Park +1.4F departure looks like its solely from the past 4 days... which had respective departures of +12, +10, +13, +12. Without the past 4 days, that station is solidly below average for April looking at the departures.

BTV up here is +1.5F for April... but that's misleading because of today's +20F departure and a +21F departure on April 11th. If you remove those two days, BTV is a shade below normal for the month.

Unfortunately that's not how monthly departures work, lol, but the idea is that Zucker's opinion holds merit... this month has been far from "warm" on the whole, and without the past few days, I bet most New England sites would be below normal.

[HoarfrostHubb]

It was warm, but no absurdly high temperatures like 2010 or 2009. Just a rainy month this year with mild, cloudy nights in a dirty warm sector. Landscape has become vividly colored here in Dobbs Ferry, however, with the well-timed combination of rains and warmth...tons of magnolias, lilacs, cherries all in peak bloom right now. Vegetable garden not liking this heavy rain though, had some nearly 1" amounts in Westchester today, AGAIN...want the soil to dry out to avoid the dreaded slugs and accompanying beer plates.

Totally different pattern coming though with the NAO having a steep drop from its generally positive stretch. Looks as if the next two storms will track to the Southeast with arctic air trying to plunge to Hudson Bay/Quebec. Someone should see some last snowfalls in New England in the next two weeks. Can we get Mansfield back to 100" at the stake?

This

The last 2 years were amazingly warm.

I "feel" like this has been average

[Mr Torchey]

The Central Park +1.4F departure looks like its solely from the past 4 days... which had respective departures of +12, +10, +13, +12. Without the past 4 days, that station is solidly below average for April looking at the departures.

BTV up here is +1.5F for April... but that's misleading because of today's +20F departure and a +21F departure on April 11th. If you remove those two days, BTV is a shade below normal for the month.

Unfortunately that's not how monthly departures work, lol, but the idea is that Zucker's opinion holds merit... this month has been far from "warm" on the whole, and without the past few days, I bet most New England sites would be below normal.

wrong,its easy early in the month to influence departures more, now its not, its been warm, just the facts, what does it matter, its april and if it was warm the last couple weeks, well, the april is warm, cant pick and choose days to prove a point, grass is green, leafout is occuring and BDR has not had one single 32 reading all month, its warm, sorry

[Mr Torchey]

This

The last 2 years were amazingly warm.

I "feel" like this has been average

well, it hasnt been average, poughkeepsie to your west is +3.6 that is a massive torch, massive

[powderfreak]

poughkeepsie ny +3.6 for april

ORH +1.8 for april

even boston which has been backdoored still above normal, pvd above normal.

smokey, just admit, its been warmer than normal!!!

Haha, on paper it has been above normal in terms of departures, but looking at the dailies, those positive departures are only there because of a few key days. I'm not arguing against you though... the numbers are what they are (warmer than normal)... but an argument could be made that its not quite as warm as you make it sound. I've just looked at a lot of various stations and they all have about the same number of + days as - days; it just happens a few of the positive days were really nice and warm, especially overnight.

I should check out daytime high temperature departures... I wonder if that tells a different story as that's where the public gets their "perception" from. If overnight lows are mild but daytime highs are below normal, most people don't think of that as a "warm" month.

[nzucker]

The Central Park +1.4F departure looks like its solely from the past 4 days... which had respective departures of +12, +10, +13, +12. Without the past 4 days, that station is solidly below average for April looking at the departures.

BTV up here is +1.5F for April... but that's misleading because of today's +20F departure and a +21F departure on April 11th. If you remove those two days, BTV is a shade below normal for the month.

Unfortunately that's not how monthly departures work, lol, but the idea is that Zucker's opinion holds merit... this month has been far from "warm" on the whole, and without the past few days, I bet most New England sites would be below normal.

We haven't had many warm days except the past few and 4/14, which had 70/46 here. We also haven't had any temperatures higher than 80F. This is why, for the most part, I haven't considered this a "warm April"...also NYC being +1 for the month is easily balanced out in the public consciousness by rain/cloud cover. I am not claiming that temperatures have been below average, nor that it's been a "cold April" either, but I think Joe's comments of this as a "torch spring" and "best spring ever" are seriously exaggerated.

But anyway, the point is that the fact April turned out above normal doesn't decide whether we get a 45F Nor'easter next week. All the models show the NAO going much more negative with a -EPO type ridge developing.

[powderfreak]

wrong,its easy early in the month to influence departures more, now its not, its been warm, just the facts, what does it matter, its april and if it was warm the last couple weeks, well, the april is warm, cant pick and choose days to prove a point, grass is green, leafout is occuring and BDR has not had one single 32 reading all month, its warm, sorry

Haha... oh I'm just trying to play devils advocate. To me its felt below normal but maybe that's because last year was so warm. Leafout is occurring down there? Last year at this time we were leafed out all the way up here! I think that's my problem, is basing this against last year when all the snow was gone from the mountain by now, grass was green, and the leaves were out.

[HoarfrostHubb]

well, it hasnt been average, poughkeepsie to your west is +3.6 that is a massive torch, massive

Yeah, I know. I am pretty close to ORH and it is warmer than norm by a bit. But here, it has been a little above with those 4 days really driving it.

Compared to '09 and '10, this is nothing. I'm only talking IMBY. Other places have been quite warm.

Now that I look, April 2010 in ORH was also +1.8

TOOOOOORRRRCCCHHHH!

2009 was +3.3F

[Mr Torchey]

The Central Park +1.4F departure looks like its solely from the past 4 days... which had respective departures of +12, +10, +13, +12. Without the past 4 days, that station is solidly below average for April looking at the departures.

BTV up here is +1.5F for April... but that's misleading because of today's +20F departure and a +21F departure on April 11th. If you remove those two days, BTV is a shade below normal for the month.

Unfortunately that's not how monthly departures work, lol, but the idea is that Zucker's opinion holds merit... this month has been far from "warm" on the whole, and without the past few days, I bet most New England sites would be below normal.

Facts to prove this theory incorrect.

4/3 +2

4/4 +4

4/5+5

4/11 +15

4/12 +8

4/14 +7

april has hardly been warm only in the last week at central park?

[HoarfrostHubb]

Haha... oh I'm just trying to play devils advocate. To me its felt below normal but maybe that's because last year was so warm. Leafout is occurring down there? Last year at this time we were leafed out all the way up here! I think that's my problem, is basing this against last year when all the snow was gone from the mountain by now, grass was green, and the leaves were out.

Leafout just starting here. Last year it was early April

[Mr Torchey]

Yeah, I know. I am pretty close to ORH and it is warmer than norm by a bit. But here, it has been a little above with those 4 days really driving it.

Compared to '09 and '10, this is nothing. I'm only talking IMBY. Other places have been quite warm.

Now that I look, April 2010 in ORH was also +1.8

TOOOOOORRRRCCCHHHH!

2009 was +3.3F

april is not over

[nzucker]

Haha... oh I'm just trying to play devils advocate. To me its felt below normal but maybe that's because last year was so warm. Leafout is occurring down there? Last year at this time we were leafed out all the way up here! I think that's my problem, is basing this against last year when all the snow was gone from the mountain by now, grass was green, and the leaves were out.

April has been running way above average the last few years...Central Park was +5.4 in April 2010 and +2.0 in April 2009....Overall, April has been running very warm nationally too in the last decade:

[HoarfrostHubb]

april is not over

Might go up a tenth or so based on BOX. snowed here last weekend

You are having a great spring and I'm happy for you Kevin has nothing on you wrt torch

[powderfreak]

I am not claiming that temperatures have been below average, nor that it's been a "cold April" either, but I think Joe's comments of this as a "torch spring" and "best spring ever" are seriously exaggerated.

Yeah, last year Central Park's April departure was +5.4F. That's a torch spring and best spring ever. Not even close when comparing this year's +1.4F departure caused by the last 4 days of warmth.

Last April had 10 days where departures were greater than +10 at Central Park... while only 7 days had below normal temperatures.

This April has had 4 days (EDIT: 5 days) where departures were greater than +10 at Central Park... with 13 days of below normal temperatures.

[Mr Torchey]

Yeah, last year Central Park's April departure was +5.4F. That's a torch spring and best spring ever. Not even close when comparing this year's +1.4F departure caused by the last 4 days of warmth.

Last April had 10 days where departures were greater than +10 at Central Park... while only 7 days had below normal temperatures.

This April has had 4 days where departures were greater than +10 at Central Park... with 13 days of below normal temperatures.

Personally I dont like temps in the 80s and 90s in april, I prefer a "spring where temps are close to or a little above normal" I enjoy the transition of the seasons, and this april in my mind has been perfect, here, many days in the 70's, some cool days but NO cold nights, not even a 32 down here, so yeah to me thats just about as good as it gets in sne.

Although, I think we absolutely torch in June, then look out, BIg east coast tropical season with the position of the Bermuda High........

My point is, it can be A LOT WORSE in April across sne, this has been a fantastic month of weather..................JMHO