A marked and dramatic increase in CTG lightening immediately preceding tornado genesis

[Master of Disaster]

Here is a question guys. We had a confirmed EF1 pass within a mile of the house last night. Below is the RV off Level3 around 5:20 this morning. As the circulation spun up, I noticed a very obvious increase in CTG lightening. Now when I say obvious, I mean from like a flash every 45 seconds to a minute to almost a flash every 1-2 seconds, with numerous CTG strikes. This ramp up occurred in a time span of about 30 seconds, lasted for about 4 minutes and quickly ended within a few seconds back to baseline. Ive never seen anything like it in my life and I find it hard to believe there isnt a connection to the meso tightening to drop the tornado. I seem to recall a paper a few years ago from someone who opined that there is indeed a connection between the formation stage of a tornado and the marked increase in lightening. Despite numerous Google searches today, I cant find anything on it. Anyone every read any support for this?Since we always see LP supercells with minimal lightening in chaser videos, I am curious if its perhaps a HP phenomena.

[OSUmetstud]

this is a paper by one of my professors at SUNY Oswego. He actually found the opposite occurred prior to tornadogenesis. The updraft weakened and total lightning decreased.

Total Lightning Signatures of Thunderstorm Intensity over North Texas. Part I: Supercells

Scott M. SteigerDepartment of Earth Sciences, State University of New York at Oswego, Oswego, New York

Richard E. Orville and Lawrence D. Carey<a name="" style="color: blue; ">Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Texas A&M University, College Station, Texas

it is shown that total lightning mapping, along with radar and National Lightning Detection Network (NLDN) cloud-to-ground lightning data, can be used to diagnose the severity of a thunderstorm. Analysis of supercells, some of which were tornadic, on 13 October 2001 over Dallas–Fort Worth, Texas, shows that Lightning Detection and Ranging (LDAR II) lightning source heights (quartile, median, and 95th percentile heights) increased as the storms intensified. Most of the total (cloud to ground and intracloud) lightning occurred where reflectivity cores extended upward, within regions of strong reflectivity gradient rather than in reflectivity cores. A total lightning hole was associated with an intense, nontornadic supercell on 6 April 2003. None of the supercells on 13 October 2001 exhibited a lightning hole. During tornadogenesis, the radar and LDAR II data indicated updraft weakening. The height of the 30-dBZ radar top began to descend approximately 10 min (2 volume scans) before tornado touchdown in one storm. Total lightning and cloud-to-ground flash rates decreased by up to a factor of 5 to a minimum during an F2 tornado touchdown associated with this storm. LDAR II source heights all showed descent by 2–4 km during a 25-min period prior to and during this tornado touchdown. This drastic trend of decreasing source heights prior to and during tornado touchdown was observed in two storms, but did not occur in nontornadic supercells, suggesting that these parameters can be useful to forecasters. These observations agree with tornadogenesis theory that as the updraft weakens, the mesocyclone can divide (into an updraft and downdraft) and become tornadic.

http://journals.amet....1175/MWR3472.1

[Master of Disaster]

this is a paper by one of my professors at SUNY Oswego. He actually found the opposite occurred prior to tornadogenesis. The updraft weakened and total lightning decreased.

Total Lightning Signatures of Thunderstorm Intensity over North Texas. Part I: Supercells

Scott M. SteigerDepartment of Earth Sciences, State University of New York at Oswego, Oswego, New York

Richard E. Orville and Lawrence D. Carey<a name="" style="color: blue; ">Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Texas A&M University, College Station, Texas

it is shown that total lightning mapping, along with radar and National Lightning Detection Network (NLDN) cloud-to-ground lightning data, can be used to diagnose the severity of a thunderstorm. Analysis of supercells, some of which were tornadic, on 13 October 2001 over Dallas–Fort Worth, Texas, shows that Lightning Detection and Ranging (LDAR II) lightning source heights (quartile, median, and 95th percentile heights) increased as the storms intensified. Most of the total (cloud to ground and intracloud) lightning occurred where reflectivity cores extended upward, within regions of strong reflectivity gradient rather than in reflectivity cores. A total lightning hole was associated with an intense, nontornadic supercell on 6 April 2003. None of the supercells on 13 October 2001 exhibited a lightning hole. During tornadogenesis, the radar and LDAR II data indicated updraft weakening. The height of the 30-dBZ radar top began to descend approximately 10 min (2 volume scans) before tornado touchdown in one storm. Total lightning and cloud-to-ground flash rates decreased by up to a factor of 5 to a minimum during an F2 tornado touchdown associated with this storm. LDAR II source heights all showed descent by 2–4 km during a 25-min period prior to and during this tornado touchdown. This drastic trend of decreasing source heights prior to and during tornado touchdown was observed in two storms, but did not occur in nontornadic supercells, suggesting that these parameters can be useful to forecasters. These observations agree with tornadogenesis theory that as the updraft weakens, the mesocyclone can divide (into an updraft and downdraft) and become tornadic.

http://journals.amet....1175/MWR3472.1

Interesting, thanks. This would clearly seem to indicate that the increase was associated with the cell intensifying and perhaps the decrease was a result of the storm becoming tornadic.

[OHSnow]

I've heard of weak tornadoes / funnel clouds occurring from heavy showers (with very little, if any, lightning at all).

[Mallow]

I've heard of weak tornadoes / funnel clouds occurring from heavy showers (with very little, if any, lightning at all).

Cold core funnels like that happen "frequently" out here in postfrontal convection.

[U_Thant]

"LISDAD Lightning Observations During the 22-23 February 1998 Central Florida Tornado Outbreak"

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/topics/attach/html/ssd98-27.htm

"Figures 1 and 2 show the second major supercell storm, which contained a mesocyclone, moving through Seminole County. The extreme flash rate shown in Figure 1 is a recurring signature in a number of severe storms observed during the validation experiment in the past year. In a recent study on the feasibility of GOES lightning mapping from geosynchronous orbit, it is estimated that these lightning burst signatures could provide an average of 9 minutes additional lead time to severe storm warnings currently issued on the basis of radar signatures alone "

[csnavywx]

"LISDAD Lightning Observations During the 22-23 February 1998 Central Florida Tornado Outbreak"

http://www.srh.noaa....ml/ssd98-27.htm

"Figures 1 and 2 show the second major supercell storm, which contained a mesocyclone, moving through Seminole County. The extreme flash rate shown in Figure 1 is a recurring signature in a number of severe storms observed during the validation experiment in the past year. In a recent study on the feasibility of GOES lightning mapping from geosynchronous orbit, it is estimated that these lightning burst signatures could provide an average of 9 minutes additional lead time to severe storm warnings currently issued on the basis of radar signatures alone "

The real question is:

Does this coincide with tornadoes that develop in the "ascending" pattern (bottom-up), as opposed to the ones that develop in a cascade manner from the mid-level meso down to the ground?