April 27, 2011 Tornado Outbreak

[Srain]

SPC issued High Risk. SPC issued PDS Watches. Tornado Emergencies issued by local NWS offices. Governor of Alabama declares and State of Emergency before storms even formed. Schools and businesses closed early, before the storms were near the area. What more could have been done? It was an act of Nature. The old saying that ‘Mother Nature will do what Mother Nature wants to do’ fits well in this situation. Even on this very Weather Board, our Meteorologist and other knowledgeable folks discussed for days on end ad nauseum that this could be a terrible and even deadly situation. Fact remains, a very powerful storm system developed large and powerful Super Cell tornadic storms that hit densely populated areas.

[sojitodd]

Oh I never said just leave it that. I'm all for studying this and trying to figure out what could have been done differently. I'm just not sure anything could have been done. I mean it was an EF-4 or EF-5 tornado.

Who knows, maybe they'll find out it's better to be in a closet than a basement during the really strong tornados for some reason. Crazy, lol.

Yeah, maybe I was not expressing myself well. You may be right-there may be nothing to be learned..but we need to have the info to determine that.

And even then, if there is anything different, was it only pertinent to this event, or could it be extrapolated to all events?

i just want to see the least number of people possible die in events like this I guess, and I want to know if there is anything that can be learned, or done differently, to lessen death tolls in events like this.

[HurricaneJosh]

Yes there will be casualties. But did it have to be 36? (and the area with the severe damage was limited to an area of about 6,000 people). Did they get lucky-yes in that schools were out, not major groups of people were hit(the concert hall, auditorium, church in attendance, etc thing), it missed the university and the hospital. But at the same time I just saw an interview of a guy who survived in Tuscaloosa-and he did not know it was coming until he stepped out and saw it nearly on him and then just had time to jump into the bathtub-and survived despite the total destruction of his house. If he knew five or ten minutes earlier that it was coming, maybe he could have gone down the block or two to a sturdy building with a basement that would have been a more appropriate shelter. Why did he not know? We need to ask these questions. And we need to find out if the answers will make any difference anyway I will admit.

There are things you can't do much about(such as tragedies like crowded churches or schools or event facilities being hit), but if there are things you can learn that would reduce the death and injury toll, why not try and learn them?

I don't think we're disagreeing. As I posted above, I think we should most certainly try to derive lessons from this event-- and I would never suggest otherwise. I was simply objecting to the ideas that 1) someone is to blame for this and 2) that we should be surprised 300 people are dead after an outbreak of such violent weather over such a populated region.

Re: the aerial extent of severe damage from the Tuscaloosa storm... I watched the aerial video and the area of heavy damage is huge and continues for miles and miles and miles. Granted, instances of EF5 damage-- if there even we any-- are going to be very limited, but what looks to me like solid EF3+ damage covers an enormous area-- from this one tornado alone.

[sojitodd]

I don't think we're disagreeing. As I posted above, I think we should most certainly try to derive lessons from this event-- and I would never suggest otherwise. I was simply objecting to the ideas that 1) someone is to blame for this and 2) that we should be surprised 300 people are dead after an outbreak of such violent weather over such a populated region.

Re: the aerial extent of severe damage from the Tuscaloosa storm... I watched the aerial video and the area of heavy damage is huge and continues for miles and miles and miles. Granted, instances of EF5 damage-- if there even we any-- are going to be very limited, but what looks to me like solid EF3+ damage covers an enormous area-- from this one tornado alone.

well I may be wrong-I just saw in another thread where they said there are over 200 confirmed tornadoes. With that many, and with so many of them being strong, maybe 300+ dead is really the best you can hope for. This event appears to have surpassed the 74 event in about every way except in coverage(or maybe some meteorological things that I do not know about/have much information about). Just reading that post..I think in the SE forum?..was just mind numbing. I guess I expected many of these tornado reports to be duplicates.

I know at least one person who has definitely learned something from this. I am sure as hell going to find a safe shelter within a reasonable distance from here, even if I have to contact the local police/fire/whatever to do so, and encourage everyone here to monitor severe weather and evacuate to that shelter and assist in getting the elderly and disabled out too-will also have a good talk with the park manager here. I can't do **** about what happened down there, but I can do something here dammit.

[Amped]

One thing that might increase the likelihood of people receiving tornado warnings would be to transmit the warnings to people's smartphones. Everyone has a smartphone. That could save lives.

There's also the problem of people contacting freinds and family when they shoulde be trying to help injured victims. It probably could be avoided if they just recorded an answering machine message or updated their facebook status to say "I'm survived an I am not answering my phone" .

[MJW155]

well I may be wrong-I just saw in another thread where they said there are over 200 confirmed tornadoes. With that many, and with so many of them being strong, maybe 300+ dead is really the best you can hope for. This event appears to have surpassed the 74 event in about every way except in coverage(or maybe some meteorological things that I do not know about/have much information about). Just reading that post..I think in the SE forum?..was just mind numbing. I guess I expected many of these tornado reports to be duplicates.

I know at least one person who has definitely learned something from this. I am sure as hell going to find a safe shelter within a reasonable distance from here, even if I have to contact the local police/fire/whatever to do so, and encourage everyone here to monitor severe weather and evacuate to that shelter and assist in getting the elderly and disabled out too-will also have a good talk with the park manager here. I can't do **** about what happened down there, but I can do something here dammit.

For some reason it's in the Central/Western forum. But yea, like you said, 200+ tornadoes.

[Hoosier]

well I may be wrong-I just saw in another thread where they said there are over 200 confirmed tornadoes. With that many, and with so many of them being strong, maybe 300+ dead is really the best you can hope for. This event appears to have surpassed the 74 event in about every way except in coverage(or maybe some meteorological things that I do not know about/have much information about). Just reading that post..I think in the SE forum?..was just mind numbing. I guess I expected many of these tornado reports to be duplicates.

I know at least one person who has definitely learned something from this. I am sure as hell going to find a safe shelter within a reasonable distance from here, even if I have to contact the local police/fire/whatever to do so, and encourage everyone here to monitor severe weather and evacuate to that shelter and assist in getting the elderly and disabled out too-will also have a good talk with the park manager here. I can't do **** about what happened down there, but I can do something here dammit.

I think the 200+ is preliminary. I'll be surprised if the final number doesn't come down.

[Amped]

They are focused on more important things right now. You know, like a wedding in London.

Wikipedia is now my #1 news source of info for this event.

The Royal Wedding and the shuttle mission are now top news since the media is tired of the Tornado outbreak, Japan, Lybia, and every other bloody revolution in the middle east, and the floods along the Mississippi.

[CUmet]

The effects will beat Palm Sunday but the meteorological aspect doesn't imo. It's hard to beat a dryline into Illinois and a 140 kt jet max at 500 mb.

I think this presentation, which includes a NAM simulation of the Palm Sunday 1965 outbreak, is relevant to this discussion: Daniel McCarthy presentation

It's pretty clear that the deep-layer shear was quite a bit stronger in the 1965 outbreak. Note the Lansing, MI 0-6 km shear of 102 kt. Helicities were probably about as hellacious in both events. This outbreak probably had more instability though. Granted it's not exactly an apples-to-apples comparison at all, but note the relatively low STP value of 5.7 in the Lansing sounding, whereas in this past event, we had widespread 10+ in the NAM forecasts.

[Justin]

I remember when I was a kid growing up- we were a very average middle class family. My dad worked in a factory and my mom stayed at home. So we lived in a mobile home park next to my grandmother for a while. I can remember a few times when I was 5, 6, and 7 years old we'd have a bad storm late in the evening or overnight and a cop car would come through our trailer park and they'd have an intercom device on it saying Tornado Warning get to your designated storm shelter. And they would do this every time a tornado warning was issued. And this always happened with just enough time for us to walk over to the shelter area and pack in there. Usually we'd be a bit wet by the time we got there be we were always warned and always got to safety. Perhaps where feasible this is a practice that we need to start bringing back in some of these heavily populated areas, especially when the power has been knocked out and there are large enough lead times to do this.

I remember a few of those times walking to the storm shelter looking up at the sky and you could tell the clouds were low and really swirling and screaming by when the lightning would light up the night sky. Thankfully by the time I was a bit older my dad and mom had purchased a house and we had our own basement and one of the rooms in the basement had a little storm room built under the stair case.

[CapeFearWX]

Per this page: http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=BMX&product=PNS&issuedby=BMX

Preliminary assessment of the Tuscaloosa/Birmingham tornado is out. If this path holds, and if the 65 deaths listed thus far are attributed to the same tornado, that would make this the deadliest single tornado in the U.S. since Udall, Kansas 5/25/1955 (82 deaths in that one). So sad, that's not the kind of record you'd hope would be broken

[Siberian Express]

Preliminary BMX CWA event map

[oldlogin]

SPC's Meso acrchive pages ---punch in your severe parameter and loop it forward --- Helicity was wicked...

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/ma_archive/

[Hoosier]

I think this presentation, which includes a NAM simulation of the Palm Sunday 1965 outbreak, is relevant to this discussion: Daniel McCarthy presentation

It's pretty clear that the deep-layer shear was quite a bit stronger in the 1965 outbreak. Note the Lansing, MI 0-6 km shear of 102 kt. Helicities were probably about as hellacious in both events. This outbreak probably had more instability though. Granted it's not exactly an apples-to-apples comparison at all, but note the relatively low STP value of 5.7 in the Lansing sounding, whereas in this past event, we had widespread 10+ in the NAM forecasts.

I wish there were more soundings from back then. I'd love to know what it looked like in northern/central Indiana around 00z. Based on 500 mb temps, surface obs and the Dayton sounding, we can infer that the airmass was moderately unstable over Indiana with CAPE probably on the order of 1500-2000 J/kg (perhaps a bit more in the southern part of the state but there weren't any tornadoes there). The shear was off the charts of course. Here are a few maps:

In short, I agree with your assessment that there was more shear in 1965 but higher instability in 2011. As you know, there is a range of CAPE/shear combos that can cause big problems.

[aslkahuna]

The first wave of activity in 1965 actually started in eastern KS late on Saturday night plowing through Warrensburg MO shortly after midnight. I was there and watched the storms as they came through. There was an unconfirmed tornado reported south of Warrensburg. I was impressed by how fast the individual storms were moving as they provided one heck of a light show.

Steve

[Southland Wx]

I think there are a lot of lessons that can and will be learned from this event...and I hope most of those are learned by engineers. I don't know what the building codes are or what the development patterns have been like in Alabama, but I mean...we talk about mobile homes and such...these weren't just mobile homes ripped to shreds. These look like modern suburban-esque developments and neighborhoods. So I'm sure there's something in the engineering of typical homes that we can learn. And socio-meteorologically. I'm sure there are things that can be learned as well. You can't tornado-proof a house I don't think, but you can always do better.

But I have to take a line similar to what Josh was saying here. I think it's human nature to want a reason to know why things happen. Something or someone HAS to be blamed. Why are hundreds of people dead in a horrific tornado outbreak that could in theory have been one of meteorology's greatest recent success stories (I think we've seen success this month with some of the other tornado events...warnings have been timely, well publicized and generally seen pretty far in advance)? And while we will definitely learn lessons from this, I just don't think there IS a reason why hundreds of people died, other than that extremely violent tornadoes went through more heavily populated areas than we're comfortable with seeing. Tuscaloosa's population is over 90,000 today. In the 70s it was 65,000. Alabama's population in 1980 was 3.9 million. Today is 4.7 million. There are a lot of people in this country...and in the South today. And while you hate to say it....even if we did everything right... 30 minute lead time, basement shelter, protected by mattresses, etc....you would still see many casualties when you have a tornado go through a populated area. I mean, I heard Spann on ABC in Birmingham even say to his audience directly, that no matter where people were, if they were in mobile homes, they should just leave and go stay with friends elsewhere...this was before things even hit the fan. I think the proverbial "we" really did everything we could on Wednesday. We've been extremely lucky in this country, outside of a few jarring, but generally isolated tornado events since the Super Outbreak. Whether or not this is worse or on par with 1974 or 1965, I don't know....but if you fire the same number of bullets but increase the number of targets, you're going to likely see more of those targets being hit. And as much as it pains me to say it, as bad as this is, it could one day be even worse. I just hope we can take SOMEthing from this event and apply it to the future.

Edit to add: If anything, I hope this kills the general public's tendency to associate tornadoes with Oklahoma and Kansas. I know meteorologically, we know about Dixie Alley, etc., but I hope this really kills that myth....tornado alley no longer should exist in people's minds as it has for years.

[CapeFearWX]

A couple of things that I hope will come out of this tragic event:

1) A genuine push to get a (battery-powered) weather radio into EVERY home and to stress to people how important they are, just as important as smoke and carbon monoxide detectors. Of course (and fortunately) there was a lot of media saturation with this event, but if even a few people didn't hear the warnings for their areas due to power or cellular phone outages...and what if the worst of the storms had occurred at night, with most televisions and computers turned off?

2) Increased interest in purpose-built storm shelters/"safe rooms" in the Deep South. This region is not the traditional "Tornado Alley" where hundreds of tornadoes are reported each year, but violent and long-track tornadoes do happen there with unfortunate regularity. It was demonstrated in Alabama that sometimes basements are not enough, but many houses throughout the South lack even those.

My state was hit very hard with the outbreak a couple of weeks ago. While it was devastating enough, I shudder to think what might have been had the Sanford/Raleigh tornado been of the same caliber as the one that hit Tuscaloosa and Birmingham, especially considering that Shaw and St. Augustine's Universities as well as several heavily residential areas took a direct (albeit EF-1/EF-2) hit.

[on_wx]

I'm not too sure if this has been brought up yet, but another factor in getting the public to heed a warning could be stronger wording in tornado emergency warnings . Sure local governments, meteorologists, and chasers/weather buffs know what a PDS tornado watch or a tornado emergency is, but when it comes down to the general public, a tornado emergency might just come across as a typical tornado warning.

I have noticed in just about every television station storm coverage I have seen over the years that if it's a PDS tornado watch, they very rarely even mention it's a PDS, most of the time they just say a tornado watch is up for their area. It's also the same for tornado emergencies. Not to point any fingers, but a few stations in the last few outbreaks didn't even bring up the term "tornado emergency" or even "large and extremely dangerous tornado". They would call a tornado then maybe get a bit off topic on related storm issues, such as viewer photos. Other stations have even called out the NWS for issuing a tornado warning when the TV met doesn't think there really needs to be one. I think a lot of you may know which station that is.

If there is a tornado emergency posted there needs to be a system in place for media, police, EMA's, and the NWS to use a protocol. Otherwise the only people well aware of the dangers are really only meteorologists and storm chasers. This is especially true for say local radio stations where the broadcaster on shift probably knows very little about weather. All these sources of information for the public need to work together and really emphasize when a tornado situation has just turned extreme.

Quite a few of the tornado emergencies issued in the last month would read as "tornado emergency for these areas" then to go on to say "local law enforcement reported a tornado. This tornado is moving northeast" then in the warning signature it read "a tornado warning means a tornado is imminent or already occurring". Just as an example. If a tornado warning is going to be upgraded to an emergency, very bold and serious text should follow as well as a tagline briefly explaining what a tornado emergency is and what it could mean for those impacted. So, possibly "A tornado emergency means a violent... extremely dangerous... and possibly deadly tornado is on the ground right NOW. Everyone in the path of this destructive and life threatening tornado needs to get below ground immediately. This is a very dire situation, there is no time to wait!!!! You must protect your life RIGHT NOW!".

Every tornado emergency should be accompanied by bold text in the warning. Including "this message MUST be broadcast word by word by the media." in the tagline/signature of the warning.

It's hard to say how a public outreach program should be for these especially dangerous situations. Maybe a required(by law) weekly news story on radio, television, and newspaper. Or pamphlets delivered to each house yearly. I'm really not too sure how it could be done. Also, media meteorologists should be better highlighting weather dangers in what they say. There are a lot of lessons to be learned from this outbreak, and I personally think one of them should be for media and officials to better explain and deliver these important messages.

Also, when it comes to tornado sirens most cities use the standard steady tone for a tornado warning siren. I noticed in Merrill, Wisconsin from the tornado a week or so ago when it was approaching town they turned the siren to the up and down tone emphasizing the "last call" before the tornado hit. Perhaps more cities should do that. Or, cities should be changing their sirens to be like St. Louis where they can broadcast messages over them. Talking tornado sirens could be an invaluable tool, especially during a tornado emergency.

Just a few ideas off the top of my head. I hope some of these issues will be addressed in coming months to years.

[mcalvert]

A couple of things that I hope will come out of this tragic event:

1) A genuine push to get a (battery-powered) weather radio into EVERY home and to stress to people how important they are, just as important as smoke and carbon monoxide detectors. Of course (and fortunately) there was a lot of media saturation with this event, but if even a few people didn't hear the warnings for their areas due to power or cellular phone outages...and what if the worst of the storms had occurred at night, with most televisions and computers turned off?

2) Increased interest in purpose-built storm shelters/"safe rooms" in the Deep South. This region is not the traditional "Tornado Alley" where hundreds of tornadoes are reported each year, but violent and long-track tornadoes do happen there with unfortunate regularity. It was demonstrated in Alabama that sometimes basements are not enough, but many houses throughout the South lack even those.

My state was hit very hard with the outbreak a couple of weeks ago. While it was devastating enough, I shudder to think what might have been had the Sanford/Raleigh tornado been of the same caliber as the one that hit Tuscaloosa and Birmingham, especially considering that Shaw and St. Augustine's Universities as well as several heavily residential areas took a direct (albeit EF-1/EF-2) hit.

James Spann and other Birmingham meteorologists have been pushing NOAA weather radios for at least the last 3 or 4 years prior to the spring severe weather season. Some stores even had events at which they were giving them away at times and even configuring them for the area where the radio would be used. These events were marketed on television, radio, websites, print media and I think even some billboards. I believe that the vast majority of people had to be aware of the events, but the turnout wasn't exactly spectacular. I have to believe that there are just a large percentage of the population that just doesn't take the threat seriously. Hopefully, this event will change that a bit.

Commercial safe-rooms can cost anywhere from $6500 and up. It may be possible to build a concrete storm cellar or dugout for less than that but in urban and suburban areas, city construction codes, regulations and neighborhood covenants often make it almost impossible to do this without spending an inordinate amount of money on inspections, permits and other bureaucratic overhead. I grew up in Cullman county, which sits in a mini-tornado alley within Alabama, and after we nearly perished in the Jasper/Cullman F4 on 3 April, 1974, my grandfather built his own storm cellar even though he had a basement. It didn't cost him a huge amount of money because he owned some heavy equipment, had the knowledge to do it himself, and didn't have to meet any regulations since the area was rural. Most people probably don't have this option available, but I know plenty of people that easily spend the cost of a safe-room annually on entertainment (new televisions, computers, movies, sporting events, etc) and on vacations.

Many people just have misplaced priorities and it takes events like this to, at least temporarily, make them consider what's really important.

[Baroclinicity]

This article was written last week about the North Carolina tornadoes, but it likely applies to the most recent outbreak from the 27th as well. It's discusses the tornado warning false alarm rate vs tornado fatalities.

http://www2.journalnow.com/news/2011/apr/23/wsmain01-past-false-alarms-led-many-people-to-igno-ar-972169/

I agree that there's many reasons why this latest outbreak resulted in so many fatalities and this probably lead to some of them. Think about the comments from victims claiming "it hit without warning".

[CapeFearWX]

James Spann and other Birmingham meteorologists have been pushing NOAA weather radios for at least the last 3 or 4 years prior to the spring severe weather season.  Some stores even had events at which they were giving them away at times and even configuring them for the area where the radio would be used.  These events were marketed on television, radio, websites, print media and I think even some billboards.  I believe that the vast majority of people had to be aware of the events, but the turnout wasn't exactly spectacular.  I have to believe that there are just a large percentage of the population that just doesn't take the threat seriously.  Hopefully, this event will change that a bit.

Well, I know that the local media in my area is kind of split on this issue in terms of how much they discuss it. Sometimes they talk about how important weather radios are, other times they push their own "instant notification" services where (usually for a small fee) you will received automated phone calls when a warning is issued. Which is fine too, I guess, in that it hopefully gives people the idea of how serious severe weather can be and how you won't always be in position to watch the updates on TV or someone's Twitter feed when it happens.

What I would hope is that there is some sort of ongoing nationwide campaign to get a weather radio into every home. Many fire departments and emergency managers advertise programs where you can get free smoke and carbon monoxide detectors for your home, and they're available all the time. In my town there was a general "safety fair" a few months ago where the local FD was giving away CO detectors, and they were handing out a LOT of them. There was a time not too long ago when most people didn't even know why you would even need a CO detector. Perhaps these outfits could offer weather radios in tandem with the other safety products. Having seasonal weather radio events is a good start, but why can't this be something that is "indoctrinated" into people, even kids, all the time, just as the importance of smoke detectors is now?

[NaoPos]

Tuscaloosa Mayor Walt Maddux said late Saturday that 434 people were unaccounted for, down from 570 hours earlier.

------http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/us_severe_weather

[dan11295]

Been poking around some other forums with posts from residents who live in Tuscaloosa. Saw posts in 3 different forums claiming many unidentified bodies, etc. Don't really take much stock in it because we have been down this road before after events such as Hurricane Charley. I also find it kind of distasteful for people to throw numbers around like that.

EDIT: Just found this story in the Tuscaloosa news which seems to address some of that.

[Southland Wx]

I blogged a bit about the "what went wrong" aspect...expanded on some thoughts in my earlier comments.

http://adiabat.wordpress.com/2011/05/01/thoughts-on-the-outbreak-and-sociometeorology/

[Indystorm]

I blogged a bit about the "what went wrong" aspect...expanded on some thoughts in my earlier comments.

http://adiabat.wordp...ciometeorology/

This is a really excellent and thoughtful article. Thank you for your comments and research from someone who lives in Elkhart Dunlap IN. and knows many people who experienced Palm Sunday 1965 with two F-4's within one half hr. and a couple miles from each other.

[Down The Rabbit Hole]

Well, I know that the local media in my area is kind of split on this issue in terms of how much they discuss it. Sometimes they talk about how important weather radios are, other times they push their own "instant notification" services where (usually for a small fee) you will received automated phone calls when a warning is issued. Which is fine too, I guess, in that it hopefully gives people the idea of how serious severe weather can be and how you won't always be in position to watch the updates on TV or someone's Twitter feed when it happens.

What I would hope is that there is some sort of ongoing nationwide campaign to get a weather radio into every home. Many fire departments and emergency managers advertise programs where you can get free smoke and carbon monoxide detectors for your home, and they're available all the time. In my town there was a general "safety fair" a few months ago where the local FD was giving away CO detectors, and they were handing out a LOT of them. There was a time not too long ago when most people didn't even know why you would even need a CO detector. Perhaps these outfits could offer weather radios in tandem with the other safety products. Having seasonal weather radio events is a good start, but why can't this be something that is "indoctrinated" into people, even kids, all the time, just as the importance of smoke detectors is now?

First thing I think that has to go, is the term "weather radio." That makes people think of general forecasts. In that region, even the NOAA designation can hurt - there's an inherent distrust of the federal government, and it's not unreasonable to think that people would recoil at the idea of a "government radio" in their house. Something more like "StormSecure," that emphasizes that its function is to protect families, would enhance rates of adoption, I think.

Same thing goes with the PDS Watches and Tornado Emergencies. "Particularly Dangerous Situation" is great for emergency managers, but a little too convoluted for the general public. Perhaps renaming a PDS Watch to a "Tornado Alert" might help get the message across.

A similar issue arises with "Tornado Emergency" - in those kinds of situations, even "emergency" seems a little too euphemistic (it was the "Emergency Broadcasting System," originally, instead of the "Nuclear Attack Warning System" or other such name). Embedding it within a regular Tornado Warning doesn't help things, either. Unfortunately, the effectiveness of Doppler radar at detecting rotating mesocyclones that never touch the ground has weakened the impact of a Tornado Warning on the public, and this "boy who cried wolf" effect may lead to complacency.

Edit: I realize that a lot of this was what Southern Wx said, though he put it a lot more eloquently. I'm not sure what to do about the storm shelter situation in the South, though. It would be hard to get such legislation through - land developers would do everything they could to derail that bill. Any law that forces someone to pay money would be extremely unpopular in the region, and would likely fail.

[AtticaFanatica]

Unfortunately, the effectiveness of Doppler radar at detecting rotating mesocyclones that never touch the ground has weakened the impact of a Tornado Warning on the public, and this "boy who cried wolf" effect may lead to complacency.

What?

[Down The Rabbit Hole]

What?

This is mostly experience from living in Central Oklahoma for a while. You hear the warning, and the sirens go off, and people do one of two things - either go out to look for the tornado, or ignore the warning entirely, since it's not the first false alarm they've been through. People aren't generally going to drop what they're doing to huddle in a basement or closet unless they're absolutely sure that something bad is bearing down upon them.

The lead times provided by radar-indicated "tornadoes" do provide an invaluable service. However, they do lead to a "boy who cried wolf" effect - people aren't inclined to take precautions under a warning often unless someone sees a funnel on the ground, because even in the most active areas, tornadoes are rare enough, and false alarms common enough, that it seems like wasting time.

[AtticaFanatica]

This is mostly experience from living in Central Oklahoma for a while. You hear the warning, and the sirens go off, and people do one of two things - either go out to look for the tornado, or ignore the warning entirely, since it's not the first false alarm they've been through. People aren't generally going to drop what they're doing to huddle in a basement or closet unless they're absolutely sure that something bad is bearing down upon them.

The lead times provided by radar-indicated "tornadoes" do provide an invaluable service. However, they do lead to a "boy who cried wolf" effect - people aren't inclined to take precautions under a warning often unless someone sees a funnel on the ground, because even in the most active areas, tornadoes are rare enough, and false alarms common enough, that it seems like wasting time.

Doppler radar has not weakened the impact of tornado warnings, and, in fact, the introduction of the WSR-88D led to an immediate reduction in warning FARs.

[Down The Rabbit Hole]

Doppler radar has not weakened the impact of tornado warnings, and, in fact, the introduction of the WSR-88D led to an immediate reduction in warning FARs.

What has been the trend over the last 23 years, though?