April 27, 2011 Tornado Outbreak

[DeltaPilot]

AP now saying as of this evening 297 fatalities. Afraid this is going to go higher...still folks missing in a bunch of these communities. I am interested in the stories of folks who sheltered in basements NOT making it.

Anyone have any links or info into that?

[baroclinic_instability]

I've seen a lot of tornado videos and I've also seen a lot of tornado damage aftermath before.

I've never seen ANYTHING like this.

WARNING this video is VERY disturbing... especially around 2:17.

Wow. Just absolute destruction for miles on end. Hard to fathom really.

[Dino]

Fast mover!

[HurricaneJosh]

Getting reports of people being found in basements dead and people who did seek refuge in basements are completely unaccounted for.

Makes me sick to hear that.

That is actually very disturbing. I mean, I know a basement isn't guaranteed safety, but I thought it gave you really good odds-- even in an EF4.

Like someone else commented above, I am curious to find out more about how those fatalities occurred. If they can find some common attributes to these cases-- for example, the victims weren't under a table or something, or they were in the "downwind" side of the basement-- then perhaps some conclusions can be drawn and applied in future safety recommendations.

[wi_fl_wx]

I've seen a lot of tornado videos and I've also seen a lot of tornado damage aftermath before.

I've never seen ANYTHING like this.

WARNING this video is VERY disturbing... especially around 2:17.

Absolutely unbelievable how far that rail car was thrown at about 6:00 into the video.

[SluggerWx]

I realize this is a multi-day event but I'm singling out this day since it will be the most destructive by far.

Over the past few days, there were a few in the Central forum who were suggesting that this outbreak could rival the Super Outbreak of April 3, 1974. Most of the veteran posters (me included) cautioned against such talk since you pretty much need everything to come together just right over a very large area. In sports terms, it's like trying to hit a home run while you're blindfolded.

Some stats from the mother of all-outbreaks in 1974:

States affected: 13

Tornadoes: 148

Damages: $3.5 billion (2005 dollars)

Fatalities: 315+

96 F2 or greater (24 F4, 6 F5)

When you consider these numbers in totality, no outbreak has been able to touch this or even come close really. But it's hard to just look at numbers and compare outbreaks from different eras since death rates have dropped, more weaker tornadoes are documented and there has been a tendency for less tornadoes to be rated violent. What would a "super outbreak" look like in modern times?

As of this post, we have 138 preliminary tornado reports and dozens of fatalities. We won't know the full extent of what has occurred for some time, but I thought I'd start a general thread so we have one place to post vital stats and other discussion.

Since we didn't have the scale then than what we have now, I find it best to compare loss of life versus population of area with Tornado Path damage.

How many people lived in areas with tornado damage in 74', and how many people died in 74

How many people lived in areas with tornado damage on Wednesday, and how many died from Tornadoes on Wednesday

If Wednesday/Tuesday's storms hit in 1974, and nothing met-wise changed, I assume that even more people's lives would have been lost (even without doing the relative analysis to compare # of deaths to the total population density of area with damage).

If we can't make this assumption, I feel as though all the financial investments to improve severe wx technology over the last 40 years are for nothing.

[Hoosier]

Since we didn't have the scale then than what we have now, I find it best to compare loss of life versus population of area with Tornado Path damage.

How many people lived in areas with tornado damage in 74', and how many people died in 74

How many people lived in areas with tornado damage on Wednesday, and how many died from Tornadoes on Wednesday

If Wednesday/Tuesday's storms hit in 1974, and nothing met-wise changed, I assume that even more people's lives would have been lost (even without doing the relative analysis to compare # of deaths to the total population density of area with damage).

If we can't make this assumption, I feel as though all the financial investments to improve severe wx technology over the last 40 years are for nothing.

The scale now isn't much different per se...it's more detailed but it's still a damage scale. Obviously there is a bit better understanding about construction, etc. and how that affects damage. Something that I forgot to mention in my original post is that I believe the tornadoes in the Super Outbreak had a total combined path length over 2,500 miles. It will be interesting to see how this one shakes out.

[NorEaster27]

318 people in 2011. Something went wrong here.

http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5gwJTIxeUWZizZWADgvTCGRhnRpiA?docId=5431c50bec974f00bf5d68f67d174739

[Ian]

http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5gwJTIxeUWZizZWADgvTCGRhnRpiA?docId=5431c50bec974f00bf5d68f67d174739

TUSCALOOSA, Ala. (AP) — Authorities say the death toll from the devastating tornado outbreak across the South has climbed to 318, making it the deadliest day for twisters since the Great Depression.

[HurricaneJosh]

318 people in 2011. Something went wrong here.

http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5gwJTIxeUWZizZWADgvTCGRhnRpiA?docId=5431c50bec974f00bf5d68f67d174739

But what went wrong? I don't think anything did. People were warned, and I'm sure most of them did their best to take cover. It's sad, of course, but it doesn't surprise me. This is what happens when scores of large, powerful tornadoes plow into densely populated regions. No one did anything wrong-- it's just the natural order of things.

[Dunkman]

But what went wrong? I don't think anything did. People were warned, and I'm sure most of them did their best to take cover. It's sad, of course, but it doesn't surprise me. This is what happens when scores of large, powerful tornadoes plow into densely populated regions. No one did anything wrong-- it's just the natural order of things.

When people aren't surviving in the basements of well built homes I'm not sure what you can do.

[MJW155]

But what went wrong? I don't think anything did. People were warned, and I'm sure most of them did their best to take cover. It's sad, of course, but it doesn't surprise me. This is what happens when scores of large, powerful tornadoes plow into densely populated regions. No one did anything wrong-- it's just the natural order of things.

It sucks, but yea you are right. I was flipping channels when I saw the Jeff Morrow feed live in Tuscaloosa/Birmingham. First thing that came to my mind was hundreds of people were going to die.

Honestly, all things considered I'm surprised the toll isn't 1,000+.

[HurricaneJosh]

When people aren't surviving in the basements of well built homes I'm not sure what you can do.

Bingo. At a certain point you just have to step back and accept it. I'm not saying it isn't horrible and tragic-- I just don't feel like there's anything "wrong" about it-- i.e., I don't feel like this is a tragedy of human error or technology or hubris. It was an extraordinary natural event-- like the tsunamis in Japan.

[HurricaneJosh]

It sucks, but yea you are right. I was flipping channels when I saw the Jeff Morrow feed live in Tuscaloosa/Birmingham. First thing that came to my mind was hundreds of people were going to die.

Honestly, all things considered I'm surprised the toll isn't 1,000+.

Me, too! Large, densely-populated areas got totally smashed by these things. I would have expected more deaths, too. It's amazing so many people were able to ride these storms out. There's a bright side here.

[Amped]

Now appears to have be close to the superoutbreak death toll which was listed as (315-330) However I don't know if they will declare 6 EF5s and 23 EF4s in this outbreak.

I am surprised the media hasn't added "pocolypse" or "maggeddon" onto the end of the event. I guess those are reserved for icepussy events.

[L.B. LaForce]

Fast mover!

Some of the video is sped up a bit.

[Jebman]

I wish it was mid July already - I am sick to death of severe weather - I have had enough for the next 80 years

[MJW155]

Now appears to have be close to the superoutbreak death toll which was listed as (315-330) However I don't know if they will declare 6 EF5s and 23 EF4s in this outbreak.

I am surprised the media hasn't added "pocolypse" or "maggeddon" onto the end of the event. I guess those are reserved for icepussy events.

They are focused on more important things right now. You know, like a wedding in London.

[sojitodd]

But what went wrong? I don't think anything did. People were warned, and I'm sure most of them did their best to take cover. It's sad, of course, but it doesn't surprise me. This is what happens when scores of large, powerful tornadoes plow into densely populated regions. No one did anything wrong-- it's just the natural order of things.

Actually I disagree strongly. We do not 'know'-and that is why this outbreak needs to be studied. We need to know the hows and whys of the fatalities and major injuries, along with why people survived without major injuries who were in similar circumstances. You are assuming a lot when you say 'most of them did their best to take cover' as if that was/is the best that can happen. How do we know that? How do we know how many people took cover the best they could-and what exactly was the best they could? How many of them fall into the category of 'the best they could' being doing nothing and not paying attention to weather forecasting and warnings until the tornado was nearly upon them, and then running for the nearest cover? How many followed the weather, listened to the warnings, followed instructions such as going to a basement or interior room with no windows..and still died? Could following some different course of action made a difference?

We don't know any of that. Maybe by looking into this we can see patterns among the fatalities. Maybe things can be learned?

Just by looking at the tornado reports, you can see some familiar patterns. People dying in mobile homes. 11 people in one mobile home that was hit-four of them dead. Numerous fatalites in mobile homes. Obviously some people are still not leaving them to seek shelter elsewhere, either because they aren't paying attention or because of some other reason.

Maybe after study, all of the patterns will be familiar ones, nothing new, and it was just very strong storms moving very fast over populated areas. But we don't know that until it is determined.

*edited as I did not see the following posts...

[HurricaneJosh]

Actually I disagree strongly. We do not 'know'-and that is why this outbreak needs to be studied. We need to know the hows and whys of the fatalities and major injuries, along with why people survived without major injuries who were in similar circumstances. You are assuming a lot when you say 'most of them did their best to take cover' as if that was/is the best that can happen. How do we know that? How do we know how many people took cover the best they could-and what exactly was the best they could? How many of them fall into the category of 'the best they could' being doing nothing and not paying attention to weather forecasting and warnings until the tornado was nearly upon them, and then running for the nearest cover? How many followed the weather, listened to the warnings, followed instructions such as going to a basement or interior room with no windows..and still died? Could following some different course of action made a difference?

We don't know any of that. Maybe by looking into this we can see patterns among the fatalities. Maybe things can be learned?

Just by looking at the tornado reports, you can see some familiar patterns. People dying in mobile homes. 11 people in one mobile home that was hit-four of them dead. Numerous fatalites in mobile homes. Obviously some people are still not leaving them to seek shelter elsewhere, either because they aren't paying attention or because of some other reason.

Maybe after study, all of the patterns will be familiar ones, nothing new, and it was just very strong storms moving very fast over populated areas. But we don't know that until it is determined.

I'm sorry to say this Josh, but it is almost like you have this odd 'cavalier' attitude about this....that is just...strange.

I think you might be misunderstanding me, so please relax. I'm not suggesting we can't learn from this. For example, I posted this morning in the other thread that we should try to know more about the fatalities in basements-- to see if any lessons can be learned and applied to future safety messaging. For example, would those people have lived if they'd gotten under tables or in a different corner? Etc.

All I'm saying is that we shouldn't be so quick to assume someone did something wrong. Like the poster above, I am actually astonished that thousands aren't dead, after having viewed some of those aerial videos. To me, a death toll of 318, given what occurred, is kind of a miracle.

[HurricaneJosh]

I mean, d*mn, what was at least an EF4-- possibly an EF5-- moved through the downtown area of a city of 90,000 (Tuscaloosa). That is like dropping a small atomic bomb on a city. There are going to be casualties.

[sojitodd]

I think you might be misunderstanding me, so please relax. I'm not suggesting we can't learn from this. For example, I posted this morning in the other thread that we should try to know more about the fatalities in basements-- to see if any lessons can be learned and applied to future safety messaging. For example, would those people have lived if they'd gotten under tables or in a different corner? Etc.

All I'm saying is that we shouldn't be so quick to assume someone did something wrong. Like the poster above, I am actually astonished that thousands aren't dead, after having viewed some of those aerial videos. To me, a death toll of 318, given what occurred, is kind if a miracle.

sorry about that last line..your following comments did not bear that out so I deleted it-too late though I see.

All I am saying is we just can't say 'well this is what you just have to expect in this kind of situation' until we actually know that nothing else could have been done, or done differently. Maybe we can find out things people did that kept the death toll from being even higher. I don't think that a death toll of 318 is kind of a miracle either. There is just not enough know yet, and known about people's actions or lack of action, to say that. And I am not trying to blame the victim or anything like that. It is a matter of gathering information and learning as best we can exactly what happened regarding what people did and in what situations they did those things.

I also would like to know how much did power outages have in relation to people getting warnings/warning time, etc.

* and I am relaxed.

[sojitodd]

I mean, d*mn, what was at least an EF4-- possibly an EF5-- moved through the downtown area of a city of 90,000 (Tuscaloosa). That is like dropping a small atomic bomb on a city. There are going to be casualties.

Yes there will be casualties. But did it have to be 36? (and the area with the severe damage was limited to an area of about 6,000 people). Did they get lucky-yes in that schools were out, not major groups of people were hit(the concert hall, auditorium, church in attendance, etc thing), it missed the university and the hospital. But at the same time I just saw an interview of a guy who survived in Tuscaloosa-and he did not know it was coming until he stepped out and saw it nearly on him and then just had time to jump into the bathtub-and survived despite the total destruction of his house. If he knew five or ten minutes earlier that it was coming, maybe he could have gone down the block or two to a sturdy building with a basement that would have been a more appropriate shelter. Why did he not know? We need to ask these questions. And we need to find out if the answers will make any difference anyway I will admit.

There are things you can't do much about(such as tragedies like crowded churches or schools or event facilities being hit), but if there are things you can learn that would reduce the death and injury toll, why not try and learn them?

[MJW155]

sorry about that last line..your following comments did not bear that out so I deleted it-too late though I see.

All I am saying is we just can't say 'well this is what you just have to expect in this kind of situation' until we actually know that nothing else could have been done, or done differently. Maybe we can find out things people did that kept the death toll from being even higher. I don't think that a death toll of 318 is kind of a miracle either. There is just not enough know yet, and known about people's actions or lack of action, to say that. And I am not trying to blame the victim or anything like that. It is a matter of gathering information and learning as best we can exactly what happened regarding what people did and in what situations they did those things.

I also would like to know how much did power outages have in relation to people getting warnings/warning time, etc.

* and I am relaxed.

Weren't schools let out early that day because of the threat? I mean what more could the NWS and the media do? I don't buy that people didn't know, not in this day and age of having internet on cell phones. I have a niece that goes to college in TN. When I saw the Jeff Morrow/Birmingham tornado, I texted both my sister and my niece. My sister lives in NJ. Both texted me back within seconds saying they were aware of what was happening. My niece heard from a friend at the U of Alabama.

Between Twitter/Facebook/Texting, there are tons of ways to find out what's going on even if you lose power. Also, this was the 3rd day of the outbreak. I just find it very hard to believe that people were caught completely off guard. The Tuscaloosa storm was what 300 miles? WIth absolutely no expertise or any science to back this up, I feel safe in saying that a lot more people would have been killed if this had been a "surprise" twister that caught everyone off-guard.

[MJW155]

Yes there will be casualties. But did it have to be 36? (and the area with the severe damage was limited to an area of about 6,000 people). Did they get lucky-yes in that schools were out, not major groups of people were hit(the concert hall, auditorium, church in attendance, etc thing), it missed the university and the hospital. But at the same time I just saw an interview of a guy who survived in Tuscaloosa-and he did not know it was coming until he stepped out and saw it nearly on him and then just had time to jump into the bathtub-and survived despite the total destruction of his house. If he knew five or ten minutes earlier that it was coming, maybe he could have gone down the block or two to a sturdy building with a basement that would have been a more appropriate shelter. Why did he not know? We need to ask these questions. And we need to find out if the answers will make any difference anyway I will admit.

There are things you can't do much about(such as tragedies like crowded churches or schools or event facilities being hit), but if there are things you can learn that would reduce the death and injury toll, why not try and learn them?

I think that's on the public, not the media or NWS. If he truly did not know, he just was not paying attention.

Now in a surprise storm/tornado, yes I agee; we need to ask questions. Hell, ask them anyway and out the guy as a moron. LOL.

[sojitodd]

Weren't schools let out early that day because of the threat? I mean what more could the NWS and the media do? I don't buy that people didn't know, not in this day and age of having internet on cell phones. I have a niece that goes to college in TN. When I saw the Jeff Morrow/Birmingham tornado, I texted both my sister and my niece. My sister lives in NJ. Both texted me back within seconds saying they were aware of what was happening. My niece heard from a friend at the U of Alabama.

Between Twitter/Facebook/Texting, there are tons of ways to find out what's going on even if you lose power. Also, this was the 3rd day of the outbreak. I just find it very hard to believe that people were caught completely off guard. The Tuscaloosa storm was what 300 miles? WIth absolutely no expertise or any science to back this up, I feel safe in saying that a lot more people would have been killed if this had been a "surprise" twister that caught everyone off-guard.

I am not saying anything about the NWS/media. And maybe you are right, maybe most people did have sufficient warning time. But we need to know that, and then to also know what people did with that knowledge-what actions did they take? Could they have done something different-would anything have made a difference/

You just can't assume that : A major tornado with plenty of warning time hit a city and X number of people died or were seriously injured and we are lucky there were not more and there is nothing that people could have done differently and nothing to be learned and we are just lucky it wasn't worse.

[sojitodd]

I think that's on the public, not the media or NWS. If he truly did not know, he just was not paying attention.

Now in a surprise storm/tornado, yes I agee; we need to ask questions. Hell, ask them anyway and out the guy as a moron. LOL.

I have never suggested the media NWS did anything wrong-overall they were excellent I think. This is not about what got out-it is about what got to people and what they did. And again, this is not to blame the victims, but to try and maybe learn something useful that may help lesson the death toll in some future event. Maybe there are patterns of reaction that can be found, and maybe these patterns could show things people did correctly-which could be encouraged in the future, or maybe patterns of actions could be found that had an unexpected negative outcome, and these things could be discouraged. You just do not know until you actually know it there is anything to be learned, but you at least have to gather the info to make that determination.

Which is why I am saying study the hell out of this outbreak, not just from a meteorological standpoint, but from a sociological standpoint at well, as in how human being acted and reacted in these tornadoes-and if anything can be learned from that standpoint that could be beneficial.

I just don't think you can just say 'big tornadoes are going to kill lots of people in populated areas' and just leave it at that. without digging deeper to see if that is the way it is, or if maybe there are things that can be learned to lessen the toll.

[MJW155]

I am not saying anything about the NWS/media. And maybe you are right, maybe most people did have sufficient warning time. But we need to know that, and then to also know what people did with that knowledge-what actions did they take? Could they have done something different-would anything have made a difference/

You just can't assume that : A major tornado with plenty of warning time hit a city and X number of people died or were seriously injured and we are lucky there were not more and there is nothing that people could have done differently and nothing to be learned and we are just lucky it wasn't worse.

Well that kinda goes to what I said earlier. If people choose not to do anything, then it's on them. In the case of someone hunkering down in the basement that was still killed, what else could they have done? They went to the safest place available. Now if someone was driving to the store to get groceries and heard a tornado warning but choose to ignore it, it's on them if they get hurt/killed.

You are always going to have people that ignore warnings. It's a given. 300+ people were killed. But were there any mass casualities in any specific area? 30 people dying in a city of 70,000 doesn't sound that bad when all things considered. With something like 200+ tornado reports, to me it just looks like random bad luck for those that got killed. If say 400 people were killed in 1 town alone, then I would ask why so many died in such a small area.

[MJW155]

I have never suggested the media NWS did anything wrong-overall they were excellent I think. This is not about what got out-it is about what got to people and what they did. And again, this is not to blame the victims, but to try and maybe learn something useful that may help lesson the death toll in some future event. Maybe there are patterns of reaction that can be found, and maybe these patterns could show things people did correctly-which could be encouraged in the future, or maybe patterns of actions could be found that had an unexpected negative outcome, and these things could be discouraged. You just do not know until you actually know it there is anything to be learned, but you at least have to gather the info to make that determination.

Which is why I am saying study the hell out of this outbreak, not just from a meteorological standpoint, but from a sociological standpoint at well, as in how human being acted and reacted in these tornadoes-and if anything can be learned from that standpoint that could be beneficial.

I just don't think you can just say 'big tornadoes are going to kill lots of people in populated areas' and just leave it at that. without digging deeper to see if that is the way it is, or if maybe there are things that can be learned to lessen the toll.

Oh I never said just leave it that. I'm all for studying this and trying to figure out what could have been done differently. I'm just not sure anything could have been done. I mean it was an EF-4 or EF-5 tornado.

Who knows, maybe they'll find out it's better to be in a closet than a basement during the really strong tornados for some reason. Crazy, lol.

[Jebman]

One thing that might increase the likelihood of people receiving tornado warnings would be to transmit the warnings to people's smartphones. Everyone has a smartphone. That could save lives.