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April 27, 2011 Tornado Outbreak


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I realize this is a multi-day event but I'm singling out this day since it will be the most destructive by far.

Over the past few days, there were a few in the Central forum who were suggesting that this outbreak could rival the Super Outbreak of April 3, 1974. Most of the veteran posters (me included) cautioned against such talk since you pretty much need everything to come together just right over a very large area. In sports terms, it's like trying to hit a home run while you're blindfolded.

Some stats from the mother of all-outbreaks in 1974:

States affected: 13

Tornadoes: 148

Damages: $3.5 billion (2005 dollars)

Fatalities: 315+

96 F2 or greater (24 F4, 6 F5)

When you consider these numbers in totality, no outbreak has been able to touch this or even come close really. But it's hard to just look at numbers and compare outbreaks from different eras since death rates have dropped, more weaker tornadoes are documented and there has been a tendency for less tornadoes to be rated violent. What would a "super outbreak" look like in modern times?

As of this post, we have 138 preliminary tornado reports and dozens of fatalities. We won't know the full extent of what has occurred for some time, but I thought I'd start a general thread so we have one place to post vital stats and other discussion.

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this is the same outbreak it never stopped that only thing that changed is that we switched days so a new map was started after 12z...

There was only one short gap in confrimed tornadoes since Tuesday afternoon and that was from 12-13z,,,and I'm sure many of the wind reports during that time will end up being tornadoes..well maybe i doubt they will ever find all the paths now due to overlap

anyway

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110427_rpts.gif

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Considering the difference in real time weather info available to the public and the advanced warning prior to the storms the death toll is jaw dropping. Heart goes out to all the people devastated by this.

Does the EAS break into cable channels as well as local channels?

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In terms of (1) having F5 tornadoes literally 500 miles apart (Xenia to Guin) ...... and (2) F3s from SE Michigan to Central Alabama ..... this event clearly did not meet 1974's "standard."

But it seems to me the potential was there. The "more professional" postmortems will eventually be done, but I think it would have been much worse save for morning/early afternoon rain that limited instability in TN/KY/IN/OH.

For example, in my backyard ..... by sunset last evening, the lower-level jet was screaming over Cincinnati. We were in the "warm sector." Dynamics were there. But it was in the upper 50s with the atmosphere worked over by rain.

Historical context? If 1974 was hitting a "home run while blindfolded", this may have been hitting a "line-drive double to the warning track while blindfolded." Uncomfortably close to the home run.

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In terms of (1) having F5 tornadoes literally 500 miles apart (Xenia to Guin) ...... and (2) F3s from SE Michigan to Central Alabama ..... this event clearly did not meet 1974's "standard."

But it seems to me the potential was there. The "more professional" postmortems will eventually be done, but I think it would have been much worse save for morning/early afternoon rain that limited instability in TN/KY/IN/OH.

For example, in my backyard ..... by sunset last evening, the lower-level jet was screaming over Cincinnati. We were in the "warm sector." Dynamics were there. But it was in the upper 50s with the atmosphere worked over by rain.

Historical context? If 1974 was hitting a "home run while blindfolded", this may have been hitting a "line-drive double to the warning track while blindfolded." Uncomfortably close to the home run.

This sums it up pretty well. I think this is a solid #2.

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Perhaps we should also be comparing this to hurricanes, total impact seems similar in scale. 20% of AL without power, which is expected to continue for a week in much of the north part of the state where 90% of the trunk lines are down. Widespread gas shortages, cell phone outages, long lines at the open stores, rationing at grocery stores.

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This sums it up pretty well. I think this is a solid #2.

What makes this so amazing is the amount of death and destruction in a relatively concentrated area. I agree with those who say the 1974 setup was more impressive from a meteorological standpoint. I think you could also argue that the setup for Palm Sunday 1965 was at least as impressive as this.

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What makes this so amazing is the amount of death and destruction in a relatively concentrated area. I agree with those who say the 1974 setup was more impressive from a meteorological standpoint. I think you could also argue that the setup for Palm Sunday 1965 was at least as impressive as this.

1974 = #1

1965 and this = Tied #2

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Arguably I think this beats Palm Sunday. We're likely going to pass the number of fatalities from that event, and we're probably going to get an EF5 out of this, which Palm Sunday did not have. The tornado count will likely be greater as well, even when accounting for underreporting in '65.

I think the most comparable outbreak to this one would be the Enigma outbreak of 1884. Similar areas hit, though thankfully the Carolinas were spared the worst this time.

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Arguably I think this beats Palm Sunday. We're likely going to pass the number of fatalities from that event, and we're probably going to get an EF5 out of this, which Palm Sunday did not have. The tornado count will likely be greater as well, even when accounting for underreporting in '65.

I think the most comparable outbreak to this one would be the Enigma outbreak of 1884. Similar areas hit, though thankfully the Carolinas were spared the worst this time.

I would have to agree, I have seen at least one home with only slab remaining in Tuscaloosa. Either way, its sad and I just dont understand how this can happen. We had 3 days heads up that this was coming. Text, cell phones, Sat radio and TV, and we still have an outbreak so severe, the fatalities compare with something that happened almost 40 years ago.

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Arguably I think this beats Palm Sunday. We're likely going to pass the number of fatalities from that event, and we're probably going to get an EF5 out of this, which Palm Sunday did not have. The tornado count will likely be greater as well, even when accounting for underreporting in '65.

I think the most comparable outbreak to this one would be the Enigma outbreak of 1884. Similar areas hit, though thankfully the Carolinas were spared the worst this time.

The effects will beat Palm Sunday but the meteorological aspect doesn't imo. It's hard to beat a dryline into Illinois and a 140 kt jet max at 500 mb.

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I would have to agree, I have seen at least one home with only slab remaining in Tuscaloosa. Either way, its sad and I just dont understand how this can happen. We had 3 days heads up that this was coming. Text, cell phones, Sat radio and TV, and we still have an outbreak so severe, the fatalities compare with something that happened almost 40 years ago.

I think we'd be surprised to see just how little people know about what's going on with the weather. I don't know what the local media coverage was like, but a lot of people don't even watch that anymore.

People I interact with around here seem to have a "meh" kind of attitude towards weather forecasts.

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I would have to agree, I have seen at least one home with only slab remaining in Tuscaloosa. Either way, its sad and I just dont understand how this can happen. We had 3 days heads up that this was coming. Text, cell phones, Sat radio and TV, and we still have an outbreak so severe, the fatalities compare with something that happened almost 40 years ago.

Yes, we had 3 days to prepare for this but we also had good warning with Hurricane Katrina in 2005 yet over 1000 died there. It all boils down to what people and the authorities do. Media had this well covered and one can't fault that aspect at all so it all comes down to two factors-the people factor as to what people did to survive and the natural factor which was that quite simply with some of these storms survival was the luck of the draw because of the intensity of the situation. With Katrina there was massive failure on the parts of the authorities and refusal to heed warnings. In this case we simply had a situation where many would be killed regardless of what actions they took to survive. An event like this is a rare one indeed-considering that we are comparing it to events that occurred 37 and 46 years ago shows you just how rare.

Steve

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What makes this so amazing is the amount of death and destruction in a relatively concentrated area. I agree with those who say the 1974 setup was more impressive from a meteorological standpoint. I think you could also argue that the setup for Palm Sunday 1965 was at least as impressive as this.

[/quote

Yeah I think the Palm Sunday '65 outbreak is the most accurate comparison of historic dread to draw here, with Alabama playing the role of Indiana. PS 1965 didn't have the geographic breadth that the Superoutbreak did (nor did yesterday), but northern and central Indiana was just pummeled, with adjacent areas of Illinois, Michigan, and Ohio also hard hit, just like northern and central Alabama was blasted yesterday, along with adjacent areas of Mississippi, Tennessee, and Georgia. Then you had the relative outlier of Wisconsin in 1965, and Virginia this time. That's just from the perspective of geographic impact.

Then there's the 1932 Alabama-centered outbreak, which killed around 250 (?) in Alabama alone. I believe Tuscaloosa was nailed in that one as well.

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