90 Degree Days

[SACRUS]

On 4/26/2011 at 9:17 AM, SACRUS said:

2017

PHL: 21 (April: 0; May: 3 ; June: 6 ; Jul: 11 ; Aug:  1; Sep: )
EWR: 18 (April: 0; May: 3 ; June: 5 ; Jul: 9; Aug: 1 ; Sep: )
TTN: 14 (Apr: 0  ; May: 3  ; Jun: 4; Jul: 6; Aug: 1 ; Sep: )
LGA: 15 (April: 0; May: 3 ; June: 3 ; Jul: 8 ; Aug: 1 ; Sep: )
ACY: 16 (April: 0; May: 3 ; June: 3 ; Jul: 9; Aug: 1 ; Sep: )
TEB: 20 (April: 0; May: 3 ; June: 5; Jul: 10 ; Aug: 2 ; Sep: )
NYC: 12 (April: 0; May: 3 ; June: 3; Jul: 5 ; Aug:  1; Sep: )
JFK: 8 (April: 0; May: 1 ; June: 2 ; Jul: 5 Aug:  ; Sep: )
ISP: 8 (April: 0; May : ; June: 2 ; Jul: 6; Aug:  ; Sep: )
New Bnswk: 21 (April: 0; May: 3; June: 8 ; Jul: 9; Aug: 1 ; Sep: )

 

89 Degree days

ACY: 3
ISP: 4
New Brunswick: 4
EWR: 2
TEB: 6
TTN: 7
PHL: 6
LGA: 3
JFK: 1

 

 

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

2016:

PHL: 45 (Apr: 0  ; May:  3; Jun: 5 ; Jul: 16 ; Aug: 16 ; Sep: 5
EWR: 40 (Apr: 0  ; May: 3 ; Jun: 3 ; Jul: 16; Aug: 13 ; Sep: 5
TTN: 35 (Apr: 0  ; May: 2  ; Jun: 4; Jul: 13; Aug: 12 ; Sep: 4
LGA: 32 (Apr: 0 ; May: 3 ; Jun: 1; Jul : 15;  Aug: 10 ; Sep: 3
ACY: 30 (Apr: 0 ; May: 1 ; Jun: 4  ; Jul: 12; Aug: 10; Sep: 3
TEB: 35 (Apr: 0 ; May: 4  ; Jun : ; Jul: 15; Aug: 11; Sep: 5
NYC: 22  (Apr: 0 ; May: 2  ; Jun: ; Jul: 10; Aug: 7; Sep: 3
JFK: 15 (Apr: 0 ; May: 0  ; Jun:1 ; Jul: 7 ; Aug: 6; Sep: 1
ISP: 15 (Apr: 0 ; May:  ; Jun:  ; Jul: 7 ; Aug: 7; Sep: 1

New Brunswick: 39 (Apr: 0 ; May: 4  ; Jun: 3; Jul: 16 ; Aug: 11; Sep: 5


89 Degree Days:

TEB: 7
TTN: 6
PHL:  7
New Brunswick: 6
EWR: 3
NYC: 7
ACY: 4
JFK: 1
LGA: 9

ISP: 1

 

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

8/4:

TEB: 91
New Brunswick: 89
PHL: 88
TTN: 88
EWR: 85
LGA: 84
NYC: 84
ACY: 84
ISP: 83
JFK: 82

[doncat]

My station... May 3, June 6, July 7, Aug 1...Total 17 days.

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Isotherm]

4 hours ago, doncat said:

My station... May 3, June 6, July 7, Aug 1...Total 17 days.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

3, 5, and 7 here for May, June, and July respectively. Total 15. So far nothing in August, and it looks like nothing for awhile. 

[Isotherm]

I like where I stand with my pre-season predictions; might even end up a tad aggressive for some areas:

 

 

PHL: 28

EWR: 25

NYC: 16

LGA: 19
TTN: 21

[nzucker]

11 minutes ago, Isotherm said:

I like where I stand with my pre-season predictions; might even end up a tad aggressive for some areas:

 

 

PHL: 28

EWR: 25

NYC: 16

LGA: 19
TTN: 21

Yea I doubt we will see that many more. All the models show troughing through mid August...how many more 90s are we really going to see after 8/15 unless we have a 1953 type September heat wave? 

You are saying 4 more for NYC, which makes sense, probably 2-3 more in late August once the trough passes and then 1-2 more in September, always hot for first week of school.

Models also show potential tropical moisture, and NYC has a tough time hitting 90F with high soil moisture and vegetation growth. Combine that with a declining sun angle post 8/15 and you see a bleak picture for racking up 90s.

 

[uncle W]

16 hours ago, nzucker said:

Yea I doubt we will see that many more. All the models show troughing through mid August...how many more 90s are we really going to see after 8/15 unless we have a 1953 type September heat wave? 

You are saying 4 more for NYC, which makes sense, probably 2-3 more in late August once the trough passes and then 1-2 more in September, always hot for first week of school.

Models also show potential tropical moisture, and NYC has a tough time hitting 90F with high soil moisture and vegetation growth. Combine that with a declining sun angle post 8/15 and you see a bleak picture for racking up 90s.

 

recent years had some very hot days in September...you can't rule out that happening again...

[nzucker]

1 hour ago, uncle W said:

recent years had some very hot days in September...you can't rule out that happening again...

Certainly can't but the 90F window historically seems to close in the 9/15-20 window. Even the famed Sept 1953 heat wave was the opening days of the month. NYC hasn't seen a 90F October reading since the 1940s. 

[nzucker]

1 hour ago, uncle W said:

recent years had some very hot days in September...you can't rule out that happening again...

2016: 3 90F in September

2015: 6 90F in September

2014: 2 90F in September

2013: 1 90F in September

All before 9/15...gets really hard the second half of the month when average highs are dipping into the lower 70s.

[Paragon]

On 8/6/2017 at 2:07 PM, nzucker said:

Certainly can't but the 90F window historically seems to close in the 9/15-20 window. Even the famed Sept 1953 heat wave was the opening days of the month. NYC hasn't seen a 90F October reading since the 1940s. 

Somehow JFK hit 90 in October 2007

[Paragon]

On 8/5/2017 at 8:25 PM, nzucker said:

Yea I doubt we will see that many more. All the models show troughing through mid August...how many more 90s are we really going to see after 8/15 unless we have a 1953 type September heat wave? 

You are saying 4 more for NYC, which makes sense, probably 2-3 more in late August once the trough passes and then 1-2 more in September, always hot for first week of school.

Models also show potential tropical moisture, and NYC has a tough time hitting 90F with high soil moisture and vegetation growth. Combine that with a declining sun angle post 8/15 and you see a bleak picture for racking up 90s.

 

2010 was our hottest summer on record and had the most 90 degree days, I don't care what the faux-Central Park sensors have to say about it.  All the other locations so blew previous records out of the water that NYC 90+ temps for 2010 must be discounted.

 

[Paragon]

My prediction is for LGA to get to 20, NYC to 15 and for JFK and ISP to reach 10.  A solidly average summer.

[uncle W]

1966 had three heat waves that peaked over 100 in Newark including three straight the beginning of July...2010 had twice as many 90+ days as 1966 but only one heat wave that peaked at or over 100...It probably was the hottest ever with four straight 100 degree days in early July...1966 had five total 100 degree days and 2010 four...

[uncle W]

there have been many years with few 90+ days in NYC before mid August...many of them had most of their 90+ days after that...1960 had one before it got four at the end of August and early Sept...1973 had ten before eight straight at the end of Aug into early Sept...1970 had 22 90+ days...seven came in September...2015  had six in September...after the coolest start to August on record 1964 had six or seven more days 90 or better in late August and September...

[nzucker]

1 hour ago, Paragon said:

Somehow JFK hit 90 in October 2007

October 2007 was one of the warmest on record. I was in VT, and we were like +6 for the month.

Easier to hit 90F late in the season at JFK than early. Not much seabreeze in early October.

[nzucker]

1 hour ago, Paragon said:

My prediction is for LGA to get to 20, NYC to 15 and for JFK and ISP to reach 10.  A solidly average summer.

I think 3-4 more 90F days for NYC is very reasonable. It will depend on how far north the ridge builds after 8/18. Definitely could be a strong trough in the west, but it looks shortlived and the warmest readings look to be to our north.

It's getting late to rack up 90s especially with the 7-day forecast not showing any. It's 8/17 at that point, losing daylight fast.

[Paragon]

5 hours ago, nzucker said:

October 2007 was one of the warmest on record. I was in VT, and we were like +6 for the month.

Easier to hit 90F late in the season at JFK than early. Not much seabreeze in early October.

That reminds me of how we got 2" of snow in late October 2011 while LGA got zilch lol.

Ditto for the November 2012 snowstorm post Sandy- we had like 8" here, LGA got very little.

[Paragon]

5 hours ago, nzucker said:

I think 3-4 more 90F days for NYC is very reasonable. It will depend on how far north the ridge builds after 8/18. Definitely could be a strong trough in the west, but it looks shortlived and the warmest readings look to be to our north.

It's getting late to rack up 90s especially with the 7-day forecast not showing any. It's 8/17 at that point, losing daylight fast.

It's been a very ridge-west trough-east summer that's for sure.

Did you see the tweet out of the NWS about Death Valley having its hottest month on record?  Death Valley had an average July temp of 107.4, which beat 107.2 from July 1917 (exactly 100 years ago!)  That's the average of all the highs and the lows!

 

http://thebull1047.iheart.com/content/2017-08-04-death-valley-just-registered-a-brutal-heat-milestone/

http://mix1047.iheart.com/content/2017-08-04-death-valley-just-registered-a-brutal-heat-milestone/

It's probably been a hot summer where you are, but nothing like this: California's Death Valley registered an average temperature of 107.4 degrees for the month of July, per the National Weather Service. 

The previous record, set in 1917, was 107.2 degrees.

NBC News Radio
The news you want, when you want it
 It's not only a record for Death Valley: "It should be noted that this is the hottest average monthly temperature ever measured in the US, or, for that matter, anywhere in the Western Hemisphere," a climatologist tells the Washington Post.

Read the full story on Newser.com
https://twitter.com/DeathValleyNPS/status/892872073025945601

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2017/08/03/death-valley-just-experienced-the-hottest-month-ever-recorded-in-the-u-s/?utm_term=.80f9315c21a7#comments

http://www.newser.com/story/246745/death-valley-just-had-hottest-month-in-western-hemisphere.html?utm_source=part&utm_medium=iHeartRadio&utm_campaign=rss_main

The only place that I could find that comes close to that in average temp is a town called Reggane in the Sahara Desert whose avg July temp (long term mean) is almost 104 degrees!

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reggane#Climate

 

Climate[edit]
Reggane has a hot desert climate (Köppen climate classification BWh), with long, extremely hot summers and short, very warm winters. The climate is torrid and almost rainless. Daytime temperatures are known to consistently approach 50 °C (122 °F) in summer and nighttime temperatures routinely remain above 30 °C (86 °F). Average annual rainfall is extremely low, with only 10 mm (0.39 in). The sky is always clear throughout the year and the sunshine reigns supreme. The area in the heart of the Algerian Desert bounded by Adrar - Reggane - In Salah is nicknamed the "triangle of fire" by local inhabitants due to the extreme heat that bakes the region from May to September.[4] Reggane is obviously among the hottest spots worldwide.

But places like that in Sahara desert have exceptional average temps, however their records are not as extreme.  I found another city, called Ahvaz, which is more like Death Valley in its extreme temps (but average temps are under 100.)  It's also the most highly polluted city in the world- ugh.

Climate[edit]
Ahvaz has a desert climate (Köppen climate classification BWh) with long, very hot summers and mild, short winters. Ahvaz is consistently one of the hottest cities on the planet during the summer, with summer temperatures regularly at least 45 degrees Celsius, sometimes exceeding 50 degrees Celsius[11] with many sandstorms and duststorms common during the summer period. However, in winters, the minimum temperature can fall to around +5 degrees Celsius. Winters in Ahvaz have no snow. The average annual rainfall is around 230 mm.Recently on June 29 the temperature reached 54 degrees Celsius which is the world's highest june temperature , also the dew point peaked 23 degrees Celsius which is unusually humid unlike the usual dry heat.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ahvaz#Climate

[Paragon]

6 hours ago, uncle W said:

1966 had three heat waves that peaked over 100 in Newark including three straight the beginning of July...2010 had twice as many 90+ days as 1966 but only one heat wave that peaked at or over 100...It probably was the hottest ever with four straight 100 degree days in early July...1966 had five total 100 degree days and 2010 four...

Unc was Summer 2010 as dry as Summer 1966?  1966 was an extremely dry summer (as was all of 1965.)  Heat peaked at 104 in July 1966 at JFK (hottest temp they've ever recorded), I think they also hit 101 in June?  LGA hit 107 in July!

 

 

[Paragon]

6 hours ago, uncle W said:

there have been many years with few 90+ days in NYC before mid August...many of them had most of their 90+ days after that...1960 had one before it got four at the end of August and early Sept...1973 had ten before eight straight at the end of Aug into early Sept...1970 had 22 90+ days...seven came in September...2015  had six in September...after the coolest start to August on record 1964 had six or seven more days 90 or better in late August and September...

What about 1983, didn't we have some big late season heat that year in August and September too, Unc?

[Paragon]

6 hours ago, uncle W said:

1966 had three heat waves that peaked over 100 in Newark including three straight the beginning of July...2010 had twice as many 90+ days as 1966 but only one heat wave that peaked at or over 100...It probably was the hottest ever with four straight 100 degree days in early July...1966 had five total 100 degree days and 2010 four...

Other thing about 2010 was lots of 95+ days (including even in September!) At JFK, 2010 had 32 90+ days, 11 95+ days and 3 100+ days.  I think in 1966 they had 4 100+ days.

[uncle W]

1 hour ago, Paragon said:

Unc was Summer 2010 as dry as Summer 1966?  1966 was an extremely dry summer (as was all of 1965.)  Heat peaked at 104 in July 1966 at JFK (hottest temp they've ever recorded), I think they also hit 101 in June?  LGA hit 107 in July!

 

 

the drought broke in Sept. 1966...1953 had 20 days 90 or better before mid August and 12 in the streak...1963 just missed being the driest year on record...1964 did become the driest on record...1965 broke that record by a lot...1966 started off like 63-65 but a big turn in the pattern came in September 66...

[Paragon]

4 minutes ago, uncle W said:

the drought broke in Sept. 1966...1953 had 20 days 90 or better before mid August and 12 in the streak...1963 just missed being the driest year on record...1964 did become the driest on record...1965 broke that record by a lot...1966 started off like 63-65 but a big turn in the pattern came in September 66...

Wow what was the cause of the big extended drought 1963-66?  I remember we had a big drought in the 80s too, but not on that scale.

[uncle W]

42 minutes ago, Paragon said:

Wow what was the cause of the big extended drought 1963-66?  I remember we had a big drought in the 80s too, but not on that scale.

the driest decade was from 1956-1965...During that period NYC got five good winters and eight storms 10" or more...

[Paragon]

1 hour ago, uncle W said:

the driest decade was from 1956-1965...During that period NYC got five good winters and eight storms 10" or more...

my favorite years are where you get dry heat in the summer, tropical threats in the fall, and big snows in the winter  

[uncle W]

3 minutes ago, Paragon said:

my favorite years are where you get dry heat in the summer, tropical threats in the fall, and big snows in the winter  

my favorite weather year was from 3/3/1960 to 2/4/1961...four blizzards and a super hurricane...that's hard to beat...

[Paragon]

8 minutes ago, uncle W said:

my favorite weather year was from 3/3/1960 to 2/4/1961...four blizzards and a super hurricane...that's hard to beat...

Yes it is! and racking my brain the ideal period I've experienced that I can come up with was December 2009 to October 2011.

[JBG]

On 8/5/2017 at 8:25 PM, nzucker said:

Yea I doubt we will see that many more. All the models show troughing through mid August...how many more 90s are we really going to see after 8/15 unless we have a 1953 type September heat wave? 

You are saying 4 more for NYC, which makes sense, probably 2-3 more in late August once the trough passes and then 1-2 more in September, always hot for first week of school.

Models also show potential tropical moisture, and NYC has a tough time hitting 90F with high soil moisture and vegetation growth. Combine that with a declining sun angle post 8/15 and you see a bleak picture for racking up 90s.

 

There were other cases than 1953. 1970, 1973, 1983, 1991, 1993, 1995, 2005 and 2010 all had hot Septembers albeit some not official heat waves, I believe. And the only thing that kept 1973 from equaling 1953 was the shading of Central Park, even then.  Most of these were rising La Niña events. I don't know if the current Niña is starting fast enough.

[SACRUS]

On 4/26/2011 at 9:17 AM, SACRUS said:

2017

PHL: 25 (April: 0; May: 3 ; June: 6 ; Jul: 11 ; Aug:  5; Sep: )
EWR: 19 (April: 0; May: 3 ; June: 5 ; Jul: 9; Aug: 2 ; Sep: )
TTN: 15 (Apr: 0  ; May: 3  ; Jun: 4; Jul: 6; Aug: 2 ; Sep: )
LGA: 16 (April: 0; May: 3 ; June: 3 ; Jul: 8 ; Aug: 2 ; Sep: )
ACY: 17 (April: 0; May: 3 ; June: 3 ; Jul: 9; Aug: 2 ; Sep: )
TEB: 21 (April: 0; May: 3 ; June: 5; Jul: 10 ; Aug: 3 ; Sep: )
NYC: 12 (April: 0; May: 3 ; June: 3; Jul: 5 ; Aug:  1; Sep: )
JFK: 8 (April: 0; May: 1 ; June: 2 ; Jul: 5 Aug:  ; Sep: )
ISP: 8 (April: 0; May : ; June: 2 ; Jul: 6; Aug:  ; Sep: )
New Bnswk: 22 (April: 0; May: 3; June: 8 ; Jul: 9; Aug: 2; Sep: )

 

89 Degree days

ACY: 4
ISP: 4
New Brunswick: 4
EWR: 3
TEB: 6
TTN: 7
PHL: 8
LGA: 3
JFK: 1
NYC: 1

 

 

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

8/22

TEB: 92
PHL: 92
EWR: 91
LGA: 91
TTN: 91
New Brunswick: 91
ACY: 91
NYC: 89
JFK: 86
ISP: 85

[Isotherm]

16 here now. We're pretty much done given the upcoming pattern. Might be able to make the average of 18 for around here.

[nzucker]

7 hours ago, Isotherm said:

16 here now. We're pretty much done given the upcoming pattern. Might be able to make the average of 18 for around here.

I don't think your forecast will verify for EWR or NYC. You need 4 more at NYC (16 have 12) and 6 more at EWR (25 have 19). I think the reality is 1-2 more at NYC and 2-3 for EWR. You will be very close but probably on the high side unless September is huge heat. 2015 was the warmest September ever and had 6 days of 90F.

Current pattern keeps Canadian high pressure over the area into September, looks like until at least 9/5. With 9/15 basically the cut off for more than an isolated 90F every 10 years, time is running out fast.

You could feel it in the air yesterday. Still warm but sun is losing its punch. Airmass is transitioning to low humidity deep blue skies.