mikepie Posted April 26, 2011 Share Posted April 26, 2011 The cell south of DFW just absolutely exploded with the last few scans! showing 65 DBZ on the radar w/ the last scan. very explosive development. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted April 26, 2011 Share Posted April 26, 2011 Im sure some sort of severe product will be issued for SEMI any time. Although the latest soundings were meh.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
huronicane Posted April 26, 2011 Share Posted April 26, 2011 Nice hook and rotation beginning to develop on the lead storm, and the storm south of it is coming up quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted April 26, 2011 Share Posted April 26, 2011 Im sure some sort of severe product will be issued for SEMI any time. Although the latest soundings were meh.. There's already a tornado watch out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted April 26, 2011 Share Posted April 26, 2011 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0592 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0301 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2011 AREAS AFFECTED...EAST-CENTRAL/SOUTH-CENTRAL TX AND TX HILL COUNTRY CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE VALID 262001Z - 262130Z MONITORING DEVELOPMENTAL TRENDS FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF A TORNADO WATCH ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL/EAST-CENTRAL TX AND THE TX HILL COUNTRY. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY REFLECTS AN INCREASING/DEEPENING CU FIELD IN VICINITY OF A SOUTH-CENTRAL TX/HILL COUNTRY DRYLINE. THE EXACT COVERAGE OF EVENTUAL DEEP CONVECTION IS A BIT UNCERTAIN WITH SOUTHWARD EXTENT GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF A STRONG EML...BUT AT LEAST MODEST HEIGHT FALLS/UPPER FORCING IS EXPECTED TO GRAZE THE REGION. ALONG THESE LINES...AN ASSORTMENT OF NUMERICAL GUIDANCE...SUCH AS THE 12Z ECMWF AND VARIOUS 15Z SREF MEMBERSHIP...IMPLY THE POSSIBILITY OF AT LEAST ISOLATED DEEP CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AS FAR SOUTH AS THE AUSTIN-SAN ANTONIO AREAS AND ADJACENT HILL COUNTRY. WHERE SURFACE BASED DEVELOPMENT DOES OCCUR...VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES AND STRONG INSTABILITY /3000-4000 J PER KG MLCAPE/ COUPLED WITH STRONG/VEERING WIND PROFILES WILL BE MORE THAN ADEQUATE FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND SOME TORNADOES. ..GUYER.. 04/26/2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted April 26, 2011 Share Posted April 26, 2011 Forbes is smart and what not...but man his TV presentation needs work. He's stumbling all over the place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
huronicane Posted April 26, 2011 Share Posted April 26, 2011 868 WWUS20 KWNS 262004 SEL7 SPC WW 262004 ARZ000-ILZ000-KYZ000-MOZ000-MSZ000-TNZ000-270300- URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 217 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 305 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2011 THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN ARKANSAS SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS WESTERN KENTUCKY SOUTHEAST MISSOURI INCLUDING THE BOOTHEEL NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI WEST TENNESSEE EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 305 PM UNTIL 1000 PM CDT. ..THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION DESTRUCTIVE TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER... THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS. THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 70 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 75 MILES NORTH OF FORT CAMPBELL KENTUCKY TO 35 MILES EAST OF EL DORADO ARKANSAS. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7). REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 213...WW 214...WW 215...WW 216... DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS ARE INTENSIFYING ALONG A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL AR INTO WESTERN KY. A FEW OF THESE INITIAL STORMS WILL LIKELY BECOME SUPERCELLS WITH A RISK OF LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. THE RISK OF SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE EVENING AS STORMS FORM TO THE SOUTHWEST AND MOVE INTO THE WATCH AREA. VERY STRONG SHEAR PROFILES DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WATCH PERIOD SUGGEST THAT PDS WORDING IS APPROPRIATE...WITH STRONG TORNADOES POSSIBLE. AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24035. ...HART Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Calderon Posted April 26, 2011 Share Posted April 26, 2011 storms are rapidly firing in NW TN, namely Weakley County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VAwxman Posted April 26, 2011 Share Posted April 26, 2011 Pretty incredible range of parameters out there and hard to find something against this tornado outbreak. I remember last year when something like this was expected over Arkansas but all the supercells had a tough time producing touchdowns. I remember Attica and me were speculating on why and I brought up the insane anvil level winds. He argued that because the supercells were out ahead of the surface boundary that the anvil level winds may not have been detrimental. The local WFOs were talking about the weaker than expected juxtaposition of the CAPE and shear parameters but that clearly wasn't lining up with the obs. Anyway, the point is...the current anvil level winds are exceeding 50kts along the warm front and max out over 70kts. I didn't participate in that discussion and don't recall the setup, but I know two big mistakes I see a lot of folks make (not saying here, but in general) is not realizing that you can have too much shear for the instability, and ignoring LCL / LFC heights that may be too high and make it tougher for a touchdown. Too often I have seen people look only at CAPE and helicity and make a forecast. Anyhow, not sure either of those will limit this one (the LCL / LFC heights won't). The BRNs were on the low side of the scale on the northern edge of the instability though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted April 26, 2011 Share Posted April 26, 2011 Forbes is smart and what not...but man his TV presentation needs work. He's stumbling all over the place. Sometimes he's good sometimes he stutters a bit. I think he is just so excited he can't control himself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
huronicane Posted April 26, 2011 Share Posted April 26, 2011 Getting a split on the storm south of DFW and seeing a hard right turn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ICEHOCEY77 Posted April 26, 2011 Share Posted April 26, 2011 Cell trying to fire S of Tyler is going to be entering the high STP/EHI area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iowahawkeyedave Posted April 26, 2011 Share Posted April 26, 2011 Sometimes he's good sometimes he stutters a bit. I think he is just so excited he can't control himself. Agree with you there. He's super smart, think his mind gets ahead of him sometimes. Days like this there's lots for him to think about or want to say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted April 26, 2011 Share Posted April 26, 2011 Guys, try to watch the double posts of long text things such as watches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
huronicane Posted April 26, 2011 Share Posted April 26, 2011 Will have to see how the southern storm interferes with the cell headed now towards Italy, TX, as a decent couplet is starting to form. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted April 26, 2011 Share Posted April 26, 2011 There are now 6 counties in AR under STWs. Here it comes... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ICEHOCEY77 Posted April 26, 2011 Share Posted April 26, 2011 Watching the chaser cams around the DFW cell, looks like a wall cloud is trying to form. Tornado warning! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted April 26, 2011 Share Posted April 26, 2011 BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX 328 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2011 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FORT WORTH HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... SOUTHERN ELLIS COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS... NORTHWESTERN NAVARRO COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS... * UNTIL 415 PM CDT * AT 328 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A DEVELOPING TORNADO 7 MILES NORTHWEST OF MILFORD...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH. * THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR... ITALY AROUND 340 PM CDT... BARDWELL AROUND 410 PM CDT... ENNIS...GARRETT AND ALMA AROUND 415 PM CDT... THIS WILL IMPACT THE FOLLOWING INTERSTATES... I-35E BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 9 AND 27... I-45 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 243 AND 256. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Druff Posted April 26, 2011 Share Posted April 26, 2011 Watching the chaser cams around the DFW cell, looks like a wall cloud is trying to form. Tornado warning! You got a link? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted April 26, 2011 Share Posted April 26, 2011 There's already a tornado watch out. Wow..Im a tad late to the game! iPhone Severe weather notifications failed me yet again! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted April 26, 2011 Share Posted April 26, 2011 May have happened before, but I don't recall seeing sig tor at 9 as currently indicated for ne TX. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted April 26, 2011 Share Posted April 26, 2011 SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY 429 PM EDT TUE APR 26 2011 NYC065-262045- /O.CON.KBGM.TO.W.0001.000000T0000Z-110426T2045Z/ ONEIDA NY- 429 PM EDT TUE APR 26 2011 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 445 PM EDT FOR CENTRAL ONEIDA COUNTY... AT 425 PM EDT...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A TORNADO. THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR ROME...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH. THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR... STEUBEN AND HOLLAND PATENT BY 440 PM EDT... WESTERNVILLE AND FLOYD BY 435 PM EDT... FRENCHVILLE...NORTH WESTERN AND STITTVILLE BY 440 PM EDT... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted April 26, 2011 Share Posted April 26, 2011 Cell has finished it's split, and is really starting to crank up now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ICEHOCEY77 Posted April 26, 2011 Share Posted April 26, 2011 You got a link? http://weather.wdtinc.com/popout/index.php?M=10164&C=20226&O=10103 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
huronicane Posted April 26, 2011 Share Posted April 26, 2011 You got a link? http://www.chasertv.com/watch/video-streams-in-imap/ I'm watching Mikey Gribble's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Druff Posted April 26, 2011 Share Posted April 26, 2011 http://weather.wdtin...C=20226&O=10103 http://www.chasertv....treams-in-imap/ I'm watching Mikey Gribble's Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caviman2201 Posted April 26, 2011 Share Posted April 26, 2011 CB SigSvr at 170 and SBCAPE at 5500 out in front of those cells in Robertson County, TX... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VAwxman Posted April 26, 2011 Share Posted April 26, 2011 Western KY has a couple tor warned counties now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msp Posted April 26, 2011 Share Posted April 26, 2011 i've got to imagine that there'll be another watch south of 215. cells firing in a line just a county northwest of here; hgx has now introduced severe wording into the grids. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted April 26, 2011 Share Posted April 26, 2011 Severe storms in the Texas Panhandle with dewpoints in the low 40s says something about the approaching storm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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