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April 26th Severe Weather


Chicago Storm

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feels primed for svr wx outside here, though we're just a few miles out of the watch and it's looking more likely than not that we'll have another day with no precip.

89/69 with a south wind gusting to 25 and plenty of breaks in the clouds.

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URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED

TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 216

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

305 PM EDT TUE APR 26 2011

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

EASTERN ILLINOIS

NORTHERN AND CENTRAL INDIANA

MUCH OF LOWER MICHIGAN

NORTHWEST OHIO

LAKE ERIE

LAKE HURON

LAKE MICHIGAN

EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 305 PM UNTIL

1000 PM EDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND

GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE

AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 90 STATUTE

MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 50 MILES NORTHWEST OF BAD AXE

MICHIGAN TO 20 MILES SOUTHWEST OF INDIANAPOLIS INDIANA. FOR A

COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE

UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR

TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH

AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR

THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS

AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 213...WW 214...WW 215...

DISCUSSION...AS A SURFACE LOW CONTINUES TO DEVELOP NORTHEASTWARD

TOWARD LAKE MICHIGAN...RELATIVELY LOW TOPPED STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO

INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. AS THE AIRMASS

CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY DESTABILIZE...STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY DEEP

TROPOSPHERIC FLOW WILL SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME

SUPERCELLS/ORGANIZED LINEAR CLUSTERS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING

WINDS...SEVERE HAIL...AND A FEW TORNADOES.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL

SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE

WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO

400. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24040.

...GUYER/HART

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Latest 19Z Severe Weather Analysis, highest threat areas right now are running in an area from Allen, TX to El Dorado, AR to Monroe, LA to Montecello, AR to Tyler, TX. These areas showing the highest instability. Surface CAPE running 2000-2400 J/KG, 0-3KM SRH is impressive around 550-600 m/s, 0-1KM EHI are around 4.0 to 6.1. Convective gusts up to 80 knots and hail up to 4.6" in diameter. Also think in the highest threat zone potential is there for EF3-4 type tornadoes. Uploaded analysis page http://smartwxmodel.net/severe.pdf.

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Pretty incredible range of parameters out there and hard to find something against this tornado outbreak. I remember last year when something like this was expected over Arkansas but all the supercells had a tough time producing touchdowns. I remember Attica and me were speculating on why and I brought up the insane anvil level winds. He argued that because the supercells were out ahead of the surface boundary that the anvil level winds may not have been detrimental. The local WFOs were talking about the weaker than expected juxtaposition of the CAPE and shear parameters but that clearly wasn't lining up with the obs.

Anyway, the point is...the current anvil level winds are exceeding 50kts along the warm front and max out over 70kts.

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We're under a tornado watchup ehre in Detroit.

I went outside and it definitely does have that tornadic feel in the air.

We have full sunshine now and the stratus to the west is mixing out.

I would say though it doesnt feel that humid out. Is that because the warm front hasnt completely lifted through yet or the fact that its only 70

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I would say though it doesnt feel that humid out. Is that because the warm front hasnt completely lifted through yet or the fact that its only 70

Probably because it's windy, it's causing the moisture to mix out some.

And I was referencing the wind when I said it felt tornadic out. Thw wind has been whistling too.

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Probably because it's windy, it's causing the moisture to mix out some.

And I was referencing the wind when I said it felt tornadic out. Thw wind has been whistling too.

Yea the wind has picked up in the last hour since the sun has come out. I have tix to tonights tigers game. Should be an interesting night.

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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0591

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0241 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN AR/WESTERN TN/NORTHERN MS TO THE MO

BOOTHEEL/WESTERN KY/FAR SOUTHERN IL

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY

VALID 261941Z - 262115Z

CLOSELY MONITORING TRENDS FOR A TORNADO WATCH ISSUANCE ACROSS

EASTERN AR INTO WESTERN TN/NORTHERN MS...A WATCH MAY BE NEEDED

WITHIN THE HOUR.

OVER THE PAST HOUR...VISIBLE SATELLITE REFLECTS DEEPENING CUMULIFORM

DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST ORIENTED FRONTAL ZONE FROM

SOUTH-CENTRAL AR INTO WESTERN TN/WESTERN KY...WITH INCIPIENT TSTM

DEVELOPMENT RECENTLY NOTED EAST OF LITTLE ROCK. WITH STRONG HEATING

/ALREADY NEAR 80F OR ABOVE/ OCCURRING ALONG/SOUTHEAST OF THE SURFACE

BOUNDARY...MODIFICATIONS TO A SPECIAL 18Z LITTLE ROCK OBSERVED RAOB

SUGGEST LITTLE CINH REMAINS. AS LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT

INCREASES LATER TODAY...STRONG/SEVERE TSTMS SHOULD STEADILY INCREASE

INTO THIS EVENING. WHILE THE MOST SIGNIFICANT/WIDESPREAD

SEVERE/TORNADO THREAT MAY NOT ARRIVE UNTIL THIS EVENING /AS A LOW

LEVEL JET BEGINS TO MARKEDLY INCREASE/...INCREASING CONVECTIVE

TRENDS IN THE SHORT TERM WILL NECESSITATE A TORNADO WATCH ISSUANCE.

..GUYER.. 04/26/2011

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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX

248 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FORT WORTH HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...

ELLIS COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS...

NORTHERN HILL COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS...

EASTERN JOHNSON COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS...

* UNTIL 345 PM CDT

* AT 248 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL...AND

DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 4 MILES

EAST OF BLUM...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...

COVINGTON AND CARL'S CORNER AROUND 255 PM

ITASCA AROUND 300 PM

CLEBURNE AROUND 305 PM

GRANDVIEW AND ITALY AROUND 310 PM

KEENE AND JOSHUA AROUND 315 PM

ALVARADO AND MAYPEARL AROUND 320 PM

THIS WILL IMPACT THE FOLLOWING INTERSTATES...

I-35 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 362 AND 369...

I-35W BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 1 AND 37...

I-35E BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 1 AND 41...

I-45 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 255 AND 266.

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