mikepie Posted April 26, 2011 Share Posted April 26, 2011 P(>EF2): 90% That is incredible!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msp Posted April 26, 2011 Share Posted April 26, 2011 feels primed for svr wx outside here, though we're just a few miles out of the watch and it's looking more likely than not that we'll have another day with no precip. 89/69 with a south wind gusting to 25 and plenty of breaks in the clouds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikepie Posted April 26, 2011 Share Posted April 26, 2011 It's currenlty 66 at the DFW airport and 90 in Waco. That is a big time temperature contrast!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted April 26, 2011 Share Posted April 26, 2011 Tornado Watch has been issued up here... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psualum95 Posted April 26, 2011 Share Posted April 26, 2011 URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 216 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 305 PM EDT TUE APR 26 2011 THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN ILLINOIS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL INDIANA MUCH OF LOWER MICHIGAN NORTHWEST OHIO LAKE ERIE LAKE HURON LAKE MICHIGAN EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 305 PM UNTIL 1000 PM EDT. TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS. THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 90 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 50 MILES NORTHWEST OF BAD AXE MICHIGAN TO 20 MILES SOUTHWEST OF INDIANAPOLIS INDIANA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6). REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 213...WW 214...WW 215... DISCUSSION...AS A SURFACE LOW CONTINUES TO DEVELOP NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD LAKE MICHIGAN...RELATIVELY LOW TOPPED STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. AS THE AIRMASS CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY DESTABILIZE...STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY DEEP TROPOSPHERIC FLOW WILL SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME SUPERCELLS/ORGANIZED LINEAR CLUSTERS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS...SEVERE HAIL...AND A FEW TORNADOES. AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 400. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24040. ...GUYER/HART Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted April 26, 2011 Share Posted April 26, 2011 We're under a tornado watchup ehre in Detroit. I went outside and it definitely does have that tornadic feel in the air. We have full sunshine now and the stratus to the west is mixing out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted April 26, 2011 Share Posted April 26, 2011 Dryline looks to be showing signs of life as Panhandle disturbance gets closer... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted April 26, 2011 Share Posted April 26, 2011 Very windy and sunny up here right now. Going as I predicted so far almost to a tee Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caviman2201 Posted April 26, 2011 Share Posted April 26, 2011 The Craven/Brooks SigSvr has hit 140 in parts of eastern TX... I've never seen it that high... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted April 26, 2011 Author Share Posted April 26, 2011 Initiation occuring well to the south and east of Dallas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ICEHOCEY77 Posted April 26, 2011 Share Posted April 26, 2011 initiation SW of DFW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted April 26, 2011 Share Posted April 26, 2011 Initiation occuring well to the south and east of Dallas. don't you mean south and west? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ksstormhunter Posted April 26, 2011 Share Posted April 26, 2011 Latest 19Z Severe Weather Analysis, highest threat areas right now are running in an area from Allen, TX to El Dorado, AR to Monroe, LA to Montecello, AR to Tyler, TX. These areas showing the highest instability. Surface CAPE running 2000-2400 J/KG, 0-3KM SRH is impressive around 550-600 m/s, 0-1KM EHI are around 4.0 to 6.1. Convective gusts up to 80 knots and hail up to 4.6" in diameter. Also think in the highest threat zone potential is there for EF3-4 type tornadoes. Uploaded analysis page http://smartwxmodel.net/severe.pdf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted April 26, 2011 Share Posted April 26, 2011 Pretty incredible range of parameters out there and hard to find something against this tornado outbreak. I remember last year when something like this was expected over Arkansas but all the supercells had a tough time producing touchdowns. I remember Attica and me were speculating on why and I brought up the insane anvil level winds. He argued that because the supercells were out ahead of the surface boundary that the anvil level winds may not have been detrimental. The local WFOs were talking about the weaker than expected juxtaposition of the CAPE and shear parameters but that clearly wasn't lining up with the obs. Anyway, the point is...the current anvil level winds are exceeding 50kts along the warm front and max out over 70kts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted April 26, 2011 Share Posted April 26, 2011 couple more cells now east of DFW on I-20 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted April 26, 2011 Share Posted April 26, 2011 dont see this too often ehh? Good luck everyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted April 26, 2011 Author Share Posted April 26, 2011 don't you mean south and west? No. There is also development in NE. Texas. Somewhat confusing wording on my part. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AtticaFanatica Posted April 26, 2011 Share Posted April 26, 2011 OUN opted out of the tornado watch for S OK for now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted April 26, 2011 Share Posted April 26, 2011 We're under a tornado watchup ehre in Detroit. I went outside and it definitely does have that tornadic feel in the air. We have full sunshine now and the stratus to the west is mixing out. I would say though it doesnt feel that humid out. Is that because the warm front hasnt completely lifted through yet or the fact that its only 70 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
huronicane Posted April 26, 2011 Share Posted April 26, 2011 Explosive development with that cell headed west of Hillsboro, TX. Already beginning to show some rotation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted April 26, 2011 Share Posted April 26, 2011 NWS FWD watching Hill County storm for possible warning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted April 26, 2011 Share Posted April 26, 2011 I would say though it doesnt feel that humid out. Is that because the warm front hasnt completely lifted through yet or the fact that its only 70 Probably because it's windy, it's causing the moisture to mix out some. And I was referencing the wind when I said it felt tornadic out. Thw wind has been whistling too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted April 26, 2011 Share Posted April 26, 2011 Probably because it's windy, it's causing the moisture to mix out some. And I was referencing the wind when I said it felt tornadic out. Thw wind has been whistling too. Yea the wind has picked up in the last hour since the sun has come out. I have tix to tonights tigers game. Should be an interesting night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted April 26, 2011 Share Posted April 26, 2011 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0591 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0241 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2011 AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN AR/WESTERN TN/NORTHERN MS TO THE MO BOOTHEEL/WESTERN KY/FAR SOUTHERN IL CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY VALID 261941Z - 262115Z CLOSELY MONITORING TRENDS FOR A TORNADO WATCH ISSUANCE ACROSS EASTERN AR INTO WESTERN TN/NORTHERN MS...A WATCH MAY BE NEEDED WITHIN THE HOUR. OVER THE PAST HOUR...VISIBLE SATELLITE REFLECTS DEEPENING CUMULIFORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST ORIENTED FRONTAL ZONE FROM SOUTH-CENTRAL AR INTO WESTERN TN/WESTERN KY...WITH INCIPIENT TSTM DEVELOPMENT RECENTLY NOTED EAST OF LITTLE ROCK. WITH STRONG HEATING /ALREADY NEAR 80F OR ABOVE/ OCCURRING ALONG/SOUTHEAST OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY...MODIFICATIONS TO A SPECIAL 18Z LITTLE ROCK OBSERVED RAOB SUGGEST LITTLE CINH REMAINS. AS LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT INCREASES LATER TODAY...STRONG/SEVERE TSTMS SHOULD STEADILY INCREASE INTO THIS EVENING. WHILE THE MOST SIGNIFICANT/WIDESPREAD SEVERE/TORNADO THREAT MAY NOT ARRIVE UNTIL THIS EVENING /AS A LOW LEVEL JET BEGINS TO MARKEDLY INCREASE/...INCREASING CONVECTIVE TRENDS IN THE SHORT TERM WILL NECESSITATE A TORNADO WATCH ISSUANCE. ..GUYER.. 04/26/2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikepie Posted April 26, 2011 Share Posted April 26, 2011 NWS FWD watching Hill County storm for possible warning Looks to be getting stronger and heading right to the Metroplex. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wvaspartan Posted April 26, 2011 Share Posted April 26, 2011 SVR Warning being prepped for Hill County Storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derecho! Posted April 26, 2011 Share Posted April 26, 2011 Looks to be getting stronger and heading right to the Metroplex. Looks like it just began to split? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted April 26, 2011 Share Posted April 26, 2011 BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX 248 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2011 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FORT WORTH HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... ELLIS COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS... NORTHERN HILL COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS... EASTERN JOHNSON COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS... * UNTIL 345 PM CDT * AT 248 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 4 MILES EAST OF BLUM...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH. * THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR... COVINGTON AND CARL'S CORNER AROUND 255 PM ITASCA AROUND 300 PM CLEBURNE AROUND 305 PM GRANDVIEW AND ITALY AROUND 310 PM KEENE AND JOSHUA AROUND 315 PM ALVARADO AND MAYPEARL AROUND 320 PM THIS WILL IMPACT THE FOLLOWING INTERSTATES... I-35 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 362 AND 369... I-35W BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 1 AND 37... I-35E BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 1 AND 41... I-45 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 255 AND 266. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikepie Posted April 26, 2011 Share Posted April 26, 2011 Looks like it just began to split? almost looks like another one trying to form right behind it. This one is exploding VERY fast! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonbo Posted April 26, 2011 Share Posted April 26, 2011 The cell south of DFW just absolutely exploded with the last few scans! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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