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April 26th Severe Weather


Chicago Storm

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It will be interesting to see how the HRRR performs today. I thought it did very well yesterday, including initializing morning convection and capturing the late day severe storms over swrn Oklahoma.

Today is the type of day it should continue to do well, as the forcing is strong.

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My gosh today is going to be disgusting. Multiple rounds of supercells initiating/recharging along the dryline and propagating into that highly sheared/highly unstable environment as well as the development of what looks to be a highly developed meso/synoptic severe convective complex overnight. It is going to be a long day and night--but those monsters in TX/western Ark are going to be the main convective show. The amount of low level shear and the mass amount of instability is pretty much off the charts. Not to mention the highly favorable divergent jet coupling aloft right over the warm sector east of the dryline...

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For historical/archiving purposes, I'm posting this here.

ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073-LAZ001>006-010>014-OKZ077-TXZ096-097- 108>112-124>126-136>138-149>151-261800- SEVIER-HOWARD-LITTLE RIVER-HEMPSTEAD-NEVADA-MILLER-LAFAYETTE- COLUMBIA-UNION AR-CADDO-BOSSIER-WEBSTER-CLAIBORNE-LINCOLN- UNION LA-DE SOTO-RED RIVER-BIENVILLE-JACKSON-OUACHITA-MCCURTAIN- BOWIE-FRANKLIN-TITUS-CAMP-MORRIS-CASS-WOOD-UPSHUR-MARION-SMITH- GREGG-HARRISON-CHEROKEE-RUSK-PANOLA- 524 AM CDT TUE APR 26 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL ARKANSAS...SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA... NORTHWEST LOUISIANA...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHEAST TEXAS

. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN THIRD OF NORTHEAST TEXAS...MCCURTAIN COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AS WELL AS ALL OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL ARKANSAS THROUGH 7 AM WEDNESDAY...

THE POTENTIAL EXIST FOR A VIOLENT OUTBREAK OF TORNADOES LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR OF NORTHEAST TEXAS AND NORTHERN LOUISIANA...INCLUDING SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND ALL OF SOUTHERN ARKANSAS. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY SHIFT EASTWARD FROM THE TEXAS HILL COUNTRY...TO NEAR THE MIDDLE RED RIVER VALLEY OF NORTHEAST TEXAS INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA LATE TODAY. A DRYLINE WILL EXTEND SOUTH OF THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS NORTHEAST TEXAS WHILE A WARM FRONT WILL TAKE UP A POSITION ALONG THE RED RIVER OF SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHEAST TEXAS...TO NEAR THE LOUISIANA...ARKANSAS BORDER. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO OUR WEST...IN COMBINATION WITH A VERY UNSTABLE AND HIGHLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN THE FORMATION OF SUPERCELLS ACROSS THE REGION WITH A VIOLENT AND POTENTIAL DEADLY TORNADO OUTBREAK EXPECTED. VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING BOWING LINE SEGMENTS WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY THE CONVECTION LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

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today just looks deadly scary....the RUC is going crazy with low-level shear coupled with high amounts of instablity...the 12z RUC is forecasting 7000 j/kg of CAPE by 0z (likely overdone, but still) 5000 j/kg should be realized later today.

Was it the FWD special sounding that had 4900 J/kg observed yesterday?

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The 13z HRRR agrees with my southeast of the metroplex call for something big and isolated...wow.

My house is very close to the Ellis/Dallas county line, and that passes very close to it. The national news agencies are already picking up on today's potential. Already have gotten calls from a few networks.

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My house is very close to the Ellis/Dallas county line, and that passes very close to it. The national news agencies are already picking up on today's potential. Already have gotten calls from a few networks.

Ya the metroplex could very well be in a dangerous situation later on today, based on that run of the HRR we get big time CI southwest of the metroplex at 23z.

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Not that severe weather is as likely up here in se mi, but the sun has just come out. Looks to be nice most of the day.

If you guys can get some surface based instability the other parameters line up nicely for SE Michigan to get some supercells. Noticed you guys have some partial clearing going on right now so that should certainly help.

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So I'm thinking initiation is 3 - 5pm CDT, sound reasonable?

Guessing more like 3-4 pm versus 5pm, but I'm splitting hairs admittedly. Looks like the best timing of the arrivial of the 500 mb jet core into the juiced air mass and impinging on the LLJ.

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Memphis will be in the Hisk Risk...

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0585

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

1051 AM CDT TUE APR 26 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...FAR EASTERN AR/SOUTHWEST TN/NORTHERN MS

CONCERNING...OUTLOOK UPGRADE

VALID 261551Z - 261645Z

THE EXISTING CATEGORICAL HIGH RISK WILL LIKELY BE EXPANDED

NORTHEASTWARD IN THE FORTHCOMING 1630Z DAY 1 OUTLOOK TO INCLUDE

REMAINING PORTIONS OF EASTERN AR...WHILE ADDING PARTS OF SOUTHWEST

TN/NORTHWEST MS INTO A HIGH RISK. FOR ADDITIONAL METEOROLOGICAL

DISCUSSION...SEE THE FORTHCOMING DAY 1 OUTLOOK THAT WILL BE ISSUED

BY AROUND 1630Z.

..GUYER.. 04/26/2011

ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...

post-32-0-43062300-1303833580.gif

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