OceanStWx Posted April 26, 2011 Share Posted April 26, 2011 It will be interesting to see how the HRRR performs today. I thought it did very well yesterday, including initializing morning convection and capturing the late day severe storms over swrn Oklahoma. Today is the type of day it should continue to do well, as the forcing is strong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted April 26, 2011 Share Posted April 26, 2011 I still like the Clarke,Dallas,Nevada and Ouachita counties section of Southern Arkansas today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted April 26, 2011 Share Posted April 26, 2011 My gosh today is going to be disgusting. Multiple rounds of supercells initiating/recharging along the dryline and propagating into that highly sheared/highly unstable environment as well as the development of what looks to be a highly developed meso/synoptic severe convective complex overnight. It is going to be a long day and night--but those monsters in TX/western Ark are going to be the main convective show. The amount of low level shear and the mass amount of instability is pretty much off the charts. Not to mention the highly favorable divergent jet coupling aloft right over the warm sector east of the dryline... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted April 26, 2011 Share Posted April 26, 2011 Looks like low cloud debris over the area. http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/satellite/displaySat.php?region=LIT&itype=vis&size=large&endDate=20110426&endTime=-1&duration=0 I'd imagine it wouldn't take too long to burn off once the sun really gets going. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted April 26, 2011 Share Posted April 26, 2011 For historical/archiving purposes, I'm posting this here. ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073-LAZ001>006-010>014-OKZ077-TXZ096-097- 108>112-124>126-136>138-149>151-261800- SEVIER-HOWARD-LITTLE RIVER-HEMPSTEAD-NEVADA-MILLER-LAFAYETTE- COLUMBIA-UNION AR-CADDO-BOSSIER-WEBSTER-CLAIBORNE-LINCOLN- UNION LA-DE SOTO-RED RIVER-BIENVILLE-JACKSON-OUACHITA-MCCURTAIN- BOWIE-FRANKLIN-TITUS-CAMP-MORRIS-CASS-WOOD-UPSHUR-MARION-SMITH- GREGG-HARRISON-CHEROKEE-RUSK-PANOLA- 524 AM CDT TUE APR 26 2011 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL ARKANSAS...SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA... NORTHWEST LOUISIANA...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHEAST TEXAS . .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT... ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN THIRD OF NORTHEAST TEXAS...MCCURTAIN COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AS WELL AS ALL OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL ARKANSAS THROUGH 7 AM WEDNESDAY... THE POTENTIAL EXIST FOR A VIOLENT OUTBREAK OF TORNADOES LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR OF NORTHEAST TEXAS AND NORTHERN LOUISIANA...INCLUDING SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND ALL OF SOUTHERN ARKANSAS. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY SHIFT EASTWARD FROM THE TEXAS HILL COUNTRY...TO NEAR THE MIDDLE RED RIVER VALLEY OF NORTHEAST TEXAS INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA LATE TODAY. A DRYLINE WILL EXTEND SOUTH OF THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS NORTHEAST TEXAS WHILE A WARM FRONT WILL TAKE UP A POSITION ALONG THE RED RIVER OF SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHEAST TEXAS...TO NEAR THE LOUISIANA...ARKANSAS BORDER. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO OUR WEST...IN COMBINATION WITH A VERY UNSTABLE AND HIGHLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN THE FORMATION OF SUPERCELLS ACROSS THE REGION WITH A VIOLENT AND POTENTIAL DEADLY TORNADO OUTBREAK EXPECTED. VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING BOWING LINE SEGMENTS WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY THE CONVECTION LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted April 26, 2011 Share Posted April 26, 2011 today just looks deadly scary....the RUC is going crazy with low-level shear coupled with high amounts of instablity...the 12z RUC is forecasting 7000 j/kg of CAPE by 0z (likely overdone, but still) 5000 j/kg should be realized later today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted April 26, 2011 Share Posted April 26, 2011 today just looks deadly scary....the RUC is going crazy with low-level shear coupled with high amounts of instablity...the 12z RUC is forecasting 7000 j/kg of CAPE by 0z (likely overdone, but still) 5000 j/kg should be realized later today. Was it the FWD special sounding that had 4900 J/kg observed yesterday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted April 26, 2011 Share Posted April 26, 2011 Paris/Tyler/Texarkana/Shreveport/El Dorado are certainly under the gun for the evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted April 26, 2011 Share Posted April 26, 2011 So I'm thinking initiation is 3 - 5pm CDT, sound reasonable? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted April 26, 2011 Share Posted April 26, 2011 So I'm thinking initiation is 3 - 5pm CDT, sound reasonable? HRRR has been suggesting the 19-20z time frame, so I think that's pretty reasonable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted April 26, 2011 Share Posted April 26, 2011 GFS Sounding for Paris, TX valid at 7 pm cdt this evening. Look at that supercell potential (100%). I have never see that before. Cap is virtually gone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted April 26, 2011 Share Posted April 26, 2011 Was it the FWD special sounding that had 4900 J/kg observed yesterday? at 18z 5100 j/kg of SBCAPE 3700 j/kg of MLCAPE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted April 26, 2011 Share Posted April 26, 2011 GFS Sounding for Paris, TX valid at 7 pm cdt this evening. Look at that supercell potential (100%). I have never see that before. Cap is virtually gone. would like to see the sfc winds backed a bit more, maybe checkout the 21z sounding or somewhere further southeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted April 26, 2011 Share Posted April 26, 2011 Texarkana, that just looks incredible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted April 26, 2011 Share Posted April 26, 2011 The 13z HRRR agrees with my southeast of the metroplex call for something big and isolated...wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted April 26, 2011 Share Posted April 26, 2011 12z NAM and new HRRR both increase instability/SB CAPE across much of Indiana this afternoon. Trying to get some breaks in the clouds here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted April 26, 2011 Share Posted April 26, 2011 The 13z HRRR agrees with my southeast of the metroplex call for something big and isolated...wow. Also appears to resolve a hook echo... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted April 26, 2011 Share Posted April 26, 2011 The 13z HRRR agrees with my southeast of the metroplex call for something big and isolated...wow. My house is very close to the Ellis/Dallas county line, and that passes very close to it. The national news agencies are already picking up on today's potential. Already have gotten calls from a few networks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted April 26, 2011 Share Posted April 26, 2011 12z NAM and new HRRR both increase instability/SB CAPE across much of Indiana this afternoon. Trying to get some breaks in the clouds here. Not that severe weather is as likely up here in se mi, but the sun has just come out. Looks to be nice most of the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted April 26, 2011 Share Posted April 26, 2011 Note the 3 KM CAPE Value... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted April 26, 2011 Share Posted April 26, 2011 The 13z HRRR agrees with my southeast of the metroplex call for something big and isolated...wow. I would be willing to bet that it will be along the effective warm front too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted April 26, 2011 Share Posted April 26, 2011 My house is very close to the Ellis/Dallas county line, and that passes very close to it. The national news agencies are already picking up on today's potential. Already have gotten calls from a few networks. Ya the metroplex could very well be in a dangerous situation later on today, based on that run of the HRR we get big time CI southwest of the metroplex at 23z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted April 26, 2011 Share Posted April 26, 2011 Also appears to resolve a hook echo... These hi-res models can resolve convective evolution quite well, the question is whether or not they are correct with that evolution. In this case I think supercells is the right call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted April 26, 2011 Share Posted April 26, 2011 Note the 3 KM CAPE Value... It's images like these that have to be saved....STP of 18...EHI of nearly 13... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted April 26, 2011 Share Posted April 26, 2011 I would be willing to bet that it will be along the effective warm front too. Yep, and depending on how far north that gets, and how far east the dryline gets before CI, will determine whether the metroplex will be under the gun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SEMIweather Posted April 26, 2011 Share Posted April 26, 2011 Not that severe weather is as likely up here in se mi, but the sun has just come out. Looks to be nice most of the day. If you guys can get some surface based instability the other parameters line up nicely for SE Michigan to get some supercells. Noticed you guys have some partial clearing going on right now so that should certainly help. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VAwxman Posted April 26, 2011 Share Posted April 26, 2011 So I'm thinking initiation is 3 - 5pm CDT, sound reasonable? Guessing more like 3-4 pm versus 5pm, but I'm splitting hairs admittedly. Looks like the best timing of the arrivial of the 500 mb jet core into the juiced air mass and impinging on the LLJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted April 26, 2011 Share Posted April 26, 2011 Current satellite images... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted April 26, 2011 Share Posted April 26, 2011 Memphis will be in the Hisk Risk... MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0585 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1051 AM CDT TUE APR 26 2011 AREAS AFFECTED...FAR EASTERN AR/SOUTHWEST TN/NORTHERN MS CONCERNING...OUTLOOK UPGRADE VALID 261551Z - 261645Z THE EXISTING CATEGORICAL HIGH RISK WILL LIKELY BE EXPANDED NORTHEASTWARD IN THE FORTHCOMING 1630Z DAY 1 OUTLOOK TO INCLUDE REMAINING PORTIONS OF EASTERN AR...WHILE ADDING PARTS OF SOUTHWEST TN/NORTHWEST MS INTO A HIGH RISK. FOR ADDITIONAL METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...SEE THE FORTHCOMING DAY 1 OUTLOOK THAT WILL BE ISSUED BY AROUND 1630Z. ..GUYER.. 04/26/2011 ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted April 26, 2011 Share Posted April 26, 2011 The hour long break in the clouds helped us jump up to around 70*F with a dewpoint around 60*F, but more cloud debris is moving in from the leftover Ohio/Tennessee Valley MCS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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