ksstormhunter Posted April 27, 2011 Share Posted April 27, 2011 My Latest 01Z Severe Analysis is uploaded showing highest potential in the area of Allen, TX to Montecillo, AR to Shreveport, LA to Greenwood, MS to Greenville, MS. Surface CAPE's are around 2100 (j/kg), LI's are -9, 0-3KM SRH 550 m/s, and 0-3KM Shear 50 to 55 knots in this regions. Potential for winds 76kts, hail up to 4.7" in diameter. Uploaded analysis http://smartwxmodel.net/severe.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted April 27, 2011 Share Posted April 27, 2011 SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX 805 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2011 TXC161-289-293-270130- /O.CON.KFWD.TO.W.0064.000000T0000Z-110427T0130Z/ FREESTONE TX-LIMESTONE TX-LEON TX- 805 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2011 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 830 PM CDT FOR NORTHERN LEON...EAST CENTRAL LIMESTONE AND SOUTHERN FREESTONE COUNTIES... AT 805 PM CDT...STORM SPOTTERS AND DOPPLER RADAR OBSERVED A TORNADO. THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED 8 MILES WEST OF BUFFALO...MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH. THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR... BUFFALO AROUND 810 PM CDT... OAKWOOD AROUND 830 PM CDT... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted April 27, 2011 Share Posted April 27, 2011 Can the arguing about reports, and no reports stop already? Too many crap posts mucking up these threads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsoDerecho Posted April 27, 2011 Share Posted April 27, 2011 Hey whats the gate to gate on that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted April 27, 2011 Share Posted April 27, 2011 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN 811 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2011 MSC071-093-107-137-270145- /O.CON.KMEG.TO.W.0082.000000T0000Z-110427T0145Z/ MARSHALL MS-TATE MS-LAFAYETTE MS-PANOLA MS- 811 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2011 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 845 PM CDT FOR EASTERN PANOLA...NORTHERN LAFAYETTE...SOUTHEASTERN TATE AND SOUTHERN MARSHALL COUNTIES... AT 810 PM CDT...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A TORNADO NORTHWEST OF BATESVILLE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted April 27, 2011 Share Posted April 27, 2011 New MD except: CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 215...220... VALID 262343Z - 270145Z THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 215...220...CONTINUES. CONTINUE WWS..ESPECIALLY S AND E OF METROPLEX. WHILE COLD FRONT HAS PASSED THROUGH DFW AREA...SVR TSTMS WITH LARGE HAIL STILL ARE POSSIBLE OVER THAT AREA. SIGNIFICANT/DAMAGING TORNADO THREAT MAY INCREASE OVER PARTS OF NE TX...SWRN AR AND NRN LA THROUGH REMAINDER EVENING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted April 27, 2011 Share Posted April 27, 2011 MOD risk etended into IND DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0753 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2011 VALID 270100Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM NERN TX/SERN OK INTO NWRN LA...MUCH OF AR...NWRN MS AND WRN TN... ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM NERN TX NEWD INTO TN AND LOWER OH VALLEYS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY NEWD INTO THE OH VALLEY... ..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM NRN VA INTO ERN PA/NY ..SYNOPSIS A STRONG UPPER TROUGH/JET CONTINUES TO DIG SEWD INTO THE SRN PLAINS...AND WILL CONTINUE INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY BY WED MORNING. AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER NWRN TX...WITH A SECONDARY LOW OVER SWRN AR. SEVERAL ONGOING CLUSTERS OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDED FROM NERN TX INTO WRN KY/TN/NRN MS...AND THE ENTIRE REGION SHOULD REMAIN ACTIVE THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS FORCING WITH THE UPPER TROUGH INCREASES. ..NERN TX/SERN OK EWD ACROSS AR AND INTO WRN TX/NWRN MS ONE CLUSTER OF SUPERCELLS WITH A STRONG TORNADO THREAT WAS OVER NERN TX AND INTO FAR NWRN LA AT 01Z. THE ENVIRONMENT IS VERY SUPPORTIVE OF TORNADOES...AS THE 00Z SHV SOUNDING INDICATES WITH 300-400 EFFECTIVE SRH...AND A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE PROFILE. STORMS NEAR AND TO THE S OF SHV HAVE SHOWN VERY GOOD STRUCTURE FOR LONG LIVED TORNADIC SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LONG TRACKED TORNADOES. THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY PERSIST AND TRAVEL NEWD ACROSS NRN LA...AND EVENTUALLY INTO SERN AR AND NWRN MS LATER THIS EVENING. AS SUCH...HAVE EXPANDED THE HIGH RISK SWD TO ENCOMPASS MORE OF NRN LA. FOR MORE INFORMATION REFERENCE MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS 601 AND 602. ..SERN MO...WRN KY...SRN IL/IND ANOTHER CLUSTER OF SEVERE STORMS EVOLVED FROM EARLIER CONVECTION OVER AR...AND HAS MOVED INTO NWRN MS AND WRN TN. OTHER ISOLATED ACTIVITY WAS ONGOING OVER WRN KY...WHERE LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND MOISTURE WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING. HAVE EXTENDED THE MDT RISK NWD INTO WRN KY/SRN IL IN PART DO TO THE ONGOING SUPERCELL THREAT...BUT ALSO THE THREAT OF ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEPENING SECONDARY SURFACE LOW LATER TONIGHT. ..PA/NY 00Z SOUNDINGS FROM THE REGION SHOW MARGINAL INSTABILITY BUT RELATIVELY STRONG SHEAR PROFILES IN PLACE. STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WERE ALSO IN PLACE WITH LITTLE CAPPING. HOWEVER...WITH TIME...SOME BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZATION WILL OCCUR WITH LOSS OF HEATING. SHEAR PROFILES WILL STILL ENABLE ONGOING CONVECTION TO PERSIST FOR SEVERAL HOURS...BUT A GENERAL THINNING OUT OF COVERAGE SHOULD COMMENCE AFTER SUNSET. FOR MORE INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 600 AND 603. ..IND INTO WRN OH A LARGE AREA OF STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH RAPID WARM ADVECTION AND A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW SHOULD TRANSLATE NEWD OUT OF AR AND INTO THE LOWER OH VALLY THIS EVENING. WITH AN INTENSE 60+ KT SLY LOW LEVEL JET AND NWD MOISTURE ADVECTION...THIS SHOULD PROVIDE AMPLE FORCING FOR SEVERE STORMS INCLUDING A FEW TORNADOES AND VERY STRONG WINDS. THIS THREAT MAY EVENTUALLY AFFECT MUCH OF SRN IND INTO WRN OH BY WED MORNING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted April 27, 2011 Share Posted April 27, 2011 Two confirmed tornadoes on the ground ATM AT 810 PM CDT...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A TORNADO NORTHWEST OF BATESVILLE. THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR SARDIS...OR 7 MILES WEST OF JOHN W KYLE STATE PARK...MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH. BASEBALL SIZE HAIL WAS REPORTED AT COMO. ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 830 PM CDT FOR NORTHERN LEON...EAST CENTRAL LIMESTONE AND SOUTHERN FREESTONE COUNTIES... AT 805 PM CDT...STORM SPOTTERS AND DOPPLER RADAR OBSERVED A TORNADO. THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED 8 MILES WEST OF BUFFALO...MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hoosierwx Posted April 27, 2011 Share Posted April 27, 2011 Storms training SW of PAH. 2"-2.5" per hr rates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted April 27, 2011 Share Posted April 27, 2011 Just south of SHV, couple different couplets there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted April 27, 2011 Share Posted April 27, 2011 Tornado or just a radar blip? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LizardMafia Posted April 27, 2011 Share Posted April 27, 2011 I'm starting to see a line forming to the NW of Indy, each refresh of the radar extends it just a bit further southwest towards the IL border. Though it looks like it's forming quickly, any chance the Indy metro area will see anything truly severe or is it getting started too close to us? I doubt it, convection has been struggling to get going. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted April 27, 2011 Share Posted April 27, 2011 TOG in Conway County, AR, per local FD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted April 27, 2011 Share Posted April 27, 2011 South of Holly Springs, MS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted April 27, 2011 Share Posted April 27, 2011 Massive power outages reported in West Memphis, AR. Per WMC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted April 27, 2011 Share Posted April 27, 2011 Damage reported in Limestone, TX to a FD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted April 27, 2011 Share Posted April 27, 2011 Vortex visible on SW: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted April 27, 2011 Share Posted April 27, 2011 Vortex visible on SW: Yeah whatever is down there is probably massive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted April 27, 2011 Share Posted April 27, 2011 Hey whats the gate to gate on that? Jafar, dont think it was anything strong gate to gate but some nice low-level mesos. I believe those sups have/are producing tornadoes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted April 27, 2011 Share Posted April 27, 2011 Insane looking complex in LA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hoosierwx Posted April 27, 2011 Share Posted April 27, 2011 Insane looking complex in LA That looks like it should have a name. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SluggerWx Posted April 27, 2011 Share Posted April 27, 2011 Half my family is from Longview...most live in Dallas and Austin now, but I'm praying for them! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SluggerWx Posted April 27, 2011 Share Posted April 27, 2011 Insane looking complex in LA I am keeping your shots in my reply because this is the most insane looking supercell I've ever seen. Are there three our four tornadoes within this cell? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Megaforce Posted April 27, 2011 Share Posted April 27, 2011 It also has a massive hail core with it too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsoDerecho Posted April 27, 2011 Share Posted April 27, 2011 Jafar, dont think it was anything strong gate to gate but some nice low-level mesos. I believe those sups have/are producing tornadoes. Hahaha thanks Iago. Yeah, I know someone already mentioned this, but i am still surprised nothing BIG has happened. I know we still got all night, but i thought something major would have happened. I guess no news is good news Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Colonel Posted April 27, 2011 Share Posted April 27, 2011 lincoln parish, LA radio.....business is picking up. TOG reported in Tongaloo (sp?) http://www.radioreference.com/apps/audio/?action=cwp&ctid=1139 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted April 27, 2011 Share Posted April 27, 2011 Nice overshooting tops on IR tonight right over that cell with the large meso. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted April 27, 2011 Share Posted April 27, 2011 75 dbz on that monster cell se of Shreveport per NWS radar. Don't often see that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caviman2201 Posted April 27, 2011 Share Posted April 27, 2011 75 dbz on that monster cell se of Shreveport per NWS radar. Don't often see that. Radar says >4.0in hail too... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted April 27, 2011 Share Posted April 27, 2011 75 dbz on that monster cell se of Shreveport per NWS radar. Don't often see that. ON br1 nonetheless.. insane.. Vil's are maxed! anyone have a volume scan on that cell? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.