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April 26th Severe Weather


Chicago Storm

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My Latest 01Z Severe Analysis is uploaded showing highest potential in the area of Allen, TX to Montecillo, AR to Shreveport, LA to Greenwood, MS to Greenville, MS. Surface CAPE's are around 2100 (j/kg), LI's are -9, 0-3KM SRH 550 m/s, and 0-3KM Shear 50 to 55 knots in this regions. Potential for winds 76kts, hail up to 4.7" in diameter. Uploaded analysis http://smartwxmodel.net/severe.pdf

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SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX

805 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2011

TXC161-289-293-270130-

/O.CON.KFWD.TO.W.0064.000000T0000Z-110427T0130Z/

FREESTONE TX-LIMESTONE TX-LEON TX-

805 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2011

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 830 PM CDT FOR NORTHERN

LEON...EAST CENTRAL LIMESTONE AND SOUTHERN FREESTONE COUNTIES...

AT 805 PM CDT...STORM SPOTTERS AND DOPPLER RADAR OBSERVED A TORNADO.

THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED 8 MILES WEST OF BUFFALO...MOVING EAST AT 40

MPH.

THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...

BUFFALO AROUND 810 PM CDT...

OAKWOOD AROUND 830 PM CDT...

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NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN

811 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2011

MSC071-093-107-137-270145-

/O.CON.KMEG.TO.W.0082.000000T0000Z-110427T0145Z/

MARSHALL MS-TATE MS-LAFAYETTE MS-PANOLA MS-

811 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2011

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 845 PM CDT FOR EASTERN

PANOLA...NORTHERN LAFAYETTE...SOUTHEASTERN TATE AND SOUTHERN MARSHALL

COUNTIES...

AT 810 PM CDT...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A TORNADO

NORTHWEST OF BATESVILLE.

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New MD except:

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 215...220... VALID 262343Z - 270145Z THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 215...220...CONTINUES. CONTINUE WWS..ESPECIALLY S AND E OF METROPLEX. WHILE COLD FRONT HAS PASSED THROUGH DFW AREA...SVR TSTMS WITH LARGE HAIL STILL ARE POSSIBLE OVER THAT AREA. SIGNIFICANT/DAMAGING TORNADO THREAT MAY INCREASE OVER PARTS OF NE TX...SWRN AR AND NRN LA THROUGH REMAINDER EVENING.

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MOD risk etended into IND

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0753 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2011

VALID 270100Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM NERN TX/SERN OK INTO NWRN

LA...MUCH OF AR...NWRN MS AND WRN TN...

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM NERN TX NEWD INTO TN AND

LOWER OH VALLEYS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOWER MS

VALLEY NEWD INTO THE OH VALLEY...

..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM NRN VA INTO ERN PA/NY

..SYNOPSIS

A STRONG UPPER TROUGH/JET CONTINUES TO DIG SEWD INTO THE SRN

PLAINS...AND WILL CONTINUE INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY BY WED MORNING.

AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER NWRN TX...WITH A

SECONDARY LOW OVER SWRN AR. SEVERAL ONGOING CLUSTERS OF SEVERE

THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDED FROM NERN TX INTO WRN KY/TN/NRN MS...AND THE

ENTIRE REGION SHOULD REMAIN ACTIVE THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT

AS FORCING WITH THE UPPER TROUGH INCREASES.

..NERN TX/SERN OK EWD ACROSS AR AND INTO WRN TX/NWRN MS

ONE CLUSTER OF SUPERCELLS WITH A STRONG TORNADO THREAT WAS OVER NERN

TX AND INTO FAR NWRN LA AT 01Z. THE ENVIRONMENT IS VERY SUPPORTIVE

OF TORNADOES...AS THE 00Z SHV SOUNDING INDICATES WITH 300-400

EFFECTIVE SRH...AND A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE PROFILE. STORMS NEAR

AND TO THE S OF SHV HAVE SHOWN VERY GOOD STRUCTURE FOR LONG LIVED

TORNADIC SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LONG TRACKED TORNADOES. THESE STORMS

WILL LIKELY PERSIST AND TRAVEL NEWD ACROSS NRN LA...AND EVENTUALLY

INTO SERN AR AND NWRN MS LATER THIS EVENING. AS SUCH...HAVE EXPANDED

THE HIGH RISK SWD TO ENCOMPASS MORE OF NRN LA. FOR MORE INFORMATION

REFERENCE MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS 601 AND 602.

..SERN MO...WRN KY...SRN IL/IND

ANOTHER CLUSTER OF SEVERE STORMS EVOLVED FROM EARLIER CONVECTION

OVER AR...AND HAS MOVED INTO NWRN MS AND WRN TN. OTHER ISOLATED

ACTIVITY WAS ONGOING OVER WRN KY...WHERE LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND

MOISTURE WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING. HAVE EXTENDED THE MDT RISK NWD

INTO WRN KY/SRN IL IN PART DO TO THE ONGOING SUPERCELL THREAT...BUT

ALSO THE THREAT OF ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT ASSOCIATED WITH A

DEEPENING SECONDARY SURFACE LOW LATER TONIGHT.

..PA/NY

00Z SOUNDINGS FROM THE REGION SHOW MARGINAL INSTABILITY BUT

RELATIVELY STRONG SHEAR PROFILES IN PLACE. STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE

RATES WERE ALSO IN PLACE WITH LITTLE CAPPING. HOWEVER...WITH

TIME...SOME BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZATION WILL OCCUR WITH LOSS OF

HEATING. SHEAR PROFILES WILL STILL ENABLE ONGOING CONVECTION TO

PERSIST FOR SEVERAL HOURS...BUT A GENERAL THINNING OUT OF COVERAGE

SHOULD COMMENCE AFTER SUNSET. FOR MORE INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE

DISCUSSION 600 AND 603.

..IND INTO WRN OH

A LARGE AREA OF STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH RAPID WARM ADVECTION AND A

DEEPENING SURFACE LOW SHOULD TRANSLATE NEWD OUT OF AR AND INTO THE

LOWER OH VALLY THIS EVENING. WITH AN INTENSE 60+ KT SLY LOW LEVEL

JET AND NWD MOISTURE ADVECTION...THIS SHOULD PROVIDE AMPLE FORCING

FOR SEVERE STORMS INCLUDING A FEW TORNADOES AND VERY STRONG WINDS.

THIS THREAT MAY EVENTUALLY AFFECT MUCH OF SRN IND INTO WRN OH BY WED

MORNING.

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Two confirmed tornadoes on the ground ATM

AT 810 PM CDT...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A TORNADO 
NORTHWEST OF BATESVILLE.  THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR SARDIS...OR 
7 MILES WEST OF JOHN W KYLE STATE PARK...MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH. 
BASEBALL SIZE HAIL WAS REPORTED AT COMO.

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 830 PM CDT FOR NORTHERN
LEON...EAST CENTRAL LIMESTONE AND SOUTHERN FREESTONE COUNTIES...

AT 805 PM CDT...STORM SPOTTERS AND DOPPLER RADAR OBSERVED A TORNADO. 
THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED 8 MILES WEST OF BUFFALO...MOVING EAST AT 40
MPH.

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I'm starting to see a line forming to the NW of Indy, each refresh of the radar extends it just a bit further southwest towards the IL border.

Though it looks like it's forming quickly, any chance the Indy metro area will see anything truly severe or is it getting started too close to us?

I doubt it, convection has been struggling to get going.

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Jafar, dont think it was anything strong gate to gate but some nice low-level mesos.

I believe those sups have/are producing tornadoes.

Hahaha thanks Iago. Yeah, I know someone already mentioned this, but i am still surprised nothing BIG has happened. I know we still got all night, but i thought something major would have happened. I guess no news is good

news

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