Chicago Storm Posted April 26, 2011 Share Posted April 26, 2011 Keeping with the trend of a thread/day... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted April 26, 2011 Author Share Posted April 26, 2011 0z SPC WRF... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted April 26, 2011 Share Posted April 26, 2011 put me southeast of the of the metroplex tomorrow for something big and isolated...these images are sexy, play that DL/warm front interesection, backed sfc winds under a strong 60kt H5 jet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ICEHOCEY77 Posted April 26, 2011 Share Posted April 26, 2011 Man when that LLJ comes in tomorrow evening. It. is. on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted April 26, 2011 Share Posted April 26, 2011 Jesus, bye Little Rock. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted April 26, 2011 Author Share Posted April 26, 2011 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0100 AM CDT TUE APR 26 2011 VALID 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM NERN TX/SERN OK ACROSS MUCH OF AR AND INTO WRN TN/NRN MS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM NERN TX/ERN OK NEWD ACROSS MUCH OF THE TN/OH VALLEYS AND INTO PA AND NY... ..SYNOPSIS A STRONG UPPER JET WILL DIVE SEWD ACROSS THE SRN ROCKIES...NOSING INTO THE SRN PLAINS BY 00Z WED. AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN OVER NWRN TX DURING THE DAYTIME...WITH A TRAILING DRYLINE MOVING EWD TO AROUND I-35 IN TX BY 00Z. E OF THE DRYLINE...A RELATIVELY WIDE WARM SECTOR WILL EXIST WITH DEWPOINTS MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S F EWD TO THE MS RIVER. STRONG SHEAR PROFILES WILL EXIST ACROSS THE REGION AS THE UPPER TROUGH NEARS...WITH AMPLE INSTABILITY DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING AND MOISTURE ADVECTION. THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW SHOULD MOVE EWD FROM NWRN TX AT 00Z INTO AR BY 12Z WED...AND THIS IS WHERE FORCING/LIFT WILL BE FOCUSED. THE PRIMARY ZONE FOR SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER INCLUDING STRONG TORNADOES WILL COMMENCE BY LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS NERN TX/SERN OK...AND WILL EXPAND EWD ACROSS MUCH OF SRN AR...EXTREME NRN LA...AND INTO NRN MS/WRN TX BY WED MORNING. A SEPARATE AREA OF SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FROM THE MID MS VALLEY NEWD INTO THE OH VALLEY...AS A LEAD UPPER SHORTAVE TROUGH EJECTS NEWD. ...A FEW STRONG TO VIOLENT TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM NERN TX/SERN OK EWD ACROSS AR LATE TODAY/TONIGHT... ..NERN TX/SERN OK EWD INTO AR...LA...MS...WRN TN STRONG INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR WITH MUCAPE 2000-3000 J/KG E OF THE DRYLINE ACROSS TX/OK BENEATH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. SHEAR WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY...AND WILL BE QUITE FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER. CAPPING WILL BE BREACHED BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING OVER NERN TX/SERN OK...WITH SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF STRONG TORNADOES AND VERY LARGE HAIL. THESE STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE IN SOME FORM EWD WITH THE SURFACE LOW ACROSS MUCH OF AR...FAR NRN LA AND INTO NWRN MS AND WRN TN. INITIALLY...SUPERCELLS ARE THE PREFERRED STORM MODE...BUT WITH TIME...EXTREMELY STRONG BOWS CAPABLE OF DESTRUCTIVE STRAIGHTLINE WINDS MAY MATERIALIZE AS WELL..ESPECIALLY LATE NIGHT. HIGH RESOLUTION WRF MODELS DEPICT THIS SCENARIO. THERE ARE QUESTIONS ABOUT POTENTIAL STRONG/VIOLENT TORNADO COVERAGE SINCE LATE INITIATION WILL BE A POSSIBILITY...AND CAPPING WILL PLAY A ROLE WITH SWD EXTENT. WILL DEFER ANY POSSIBLE UPGRADE TO HIGH RISK TO LATER OUTLOOKS. ..AR/NRN MS/WRN TN EARLY/MIDDAY WARM ADVECTION NWD INTO AR/MS/TN...ATOP RESIDUAL COOL OUTFLOW FROM EARLIER CONVECTION...MAY HELP INITIATE AREAS OF STORMS BY EARLY AFTERNOON. SHEAR PROFILES...ALTHOUGH NOT AS STRONG AS THEY WILL BE LATER...WILL STILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS...CAPABLE OF A FEW TORNADOES AND LARGE HAIL. ..TN/OH VALLEYS INTO LOWER GREAT LAKES LEAD UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL AND WARM MOIST AIR STREAMING NWD WILL HELP FUELS STORMS IN THIS REGION WITH HAIL AND WIND LIKELY. SHEAR APPEARS SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW SUPERCELLS...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES MAY OCCUR AS WELL. ..JEWELL.. 04/26/2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted April 26, 2011 Share Posted April 26, 2011 Jesus, bye Little Rock. that is jaw dropping, wow Just hope everyone stay's safe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
B-Rent Posted April 26, 2011 Share Posted April 26, 2011 0210 AM TORNADO GREENBRIER 38.12N 87.28W 04/26/2011 WARRICK IN TRAINED SPOTTER UNCONFIRMED TORNADO. ALONG HIGHWAY 61 EXTENSIVE WIND DAMAGE, UPROOTED TREES, SNAPPED POWER POLES, AND STRUCTURAL DAMAGE. EMERGENCY VEHICLES RESPONDING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted April 26, 2011 Share Posted April 26, 2011 Threw up a forecast on my blog for the Great Lakes severe wx chances. Looks though like there is a nice little window where storms will be tornadic before turning into a linear event later into the day. With that being said my bullseye is probably Eastern IN/Western OH where the jet stream will be at its strongest and atmosphere most unstable. What a huge day across the board ya know Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted April 26, 2011 Share Posted April 26, 2011 Early morning SWODY1, the 10% tornado prob area correlates exactly to the 10% significant tornado area. I guess anything under 15% tornado probs is a 10% area on the map, but this is even at the boundaries, as if every tornado is expected to be a significant tornado. Hotlink, but this thread will be out of date tomorrow as well... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted April 26, 2011 Share Posted April 26, 2011 DTX....sound good enough A COMPLEX PATTERN OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO SORT OUT IN THE FORECAST FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT, INCLUDING SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING BEFORE A BREAK IN THE ACTION DEVELOPS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE PATTERN WILL BE DRIVEN BY A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING FROM ILLINOIS INTO WISCONSIN TODAY WHICH WILL PULL A WARM FRONT INTO LOWER MICHIGAN. SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IN PROGRESS AT PRESS TIME ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF OUR AREA BY AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY RENEWED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FROM SW LOWER INTO SE LOWER MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. THE AFTERNOON ACTIVITY WILL BE CAPABLE OF SEVERE WEATHER DUE TO INCREASED ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY AND POSSIBLE INTERACTION WITH THE WARM FRONT. THIS COULD INCLUDE TORNADO FORMATION WITH SUFFICIENTLY ORGANIZED CONVECTION. EARLY MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PIVOTING THROUGH THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SUPPORTING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER ILLINOIS WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EASTWARD. THESE LARGE SCALE FEATURES ARE IDEALLY POSITIONED FOR WIDESPREAD LOW LEVEL JET SUPPORTED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER LOWER MICHIGAN EXPECTED TO AFFECT OUR AREA THROUGH THE BULK OF THE MORNING. THE NORTHWARD PROGRESSION OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN SWEEP THE MORNING ACTIVITY MOSTLY TO OUR NORTH AND EAST BY AFTERNOON. THE LATEST MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT POSITIONING THE SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHERN WISCONSIN BY THEN WHICH SHOULD BE GOOD ENOUGH TO PULL THE WARM FRONT INTO OUR AREA. PREFER TO THEN ADJUST THE MODEL DATA TO ALLOW THE WARM FRONT TO LINGER IN THE VICINITY OF CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN DURING THE AFTERNOON DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF THE COLD GREAT LAKES WATER. THIS WOULD PLACE ABOUT THE SOUTHERN 2/3 OF SE MICHIGAN IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE SYSTEM WHERE THE MAIN UNCERTAINTY WILL BE SURFACE HEATING. JUDGING FROM LOW LEVEL MODEL RH FIELDS, IT DOES LOOK LIKE SOME BREAKS IN THE LOW CLOUDS WILL ALLOW SURFACE HEATING SUFFICIENT FOR TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE LOWER 70S. THIS, COMBINED WITH THE COLD POOL ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER WAVE, SHOULD ALLOW SURFACE CAPE TO MAKE A RUN AT 1000 J/KG. THIS IS, HOWEVER, THE BIG UNCERTAINTY IN THE EQUATION FOR CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ALONG WITH TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF INITIATION. FOR NOW, EARLY AFTERNOON TIMING IS PREFERRED THROUGH ABOUT CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN MOVING NORTHEAST THROUGH OUR REGION. ASSUMING ADEQUATE INSTABILITY, THE SYSTEM OTHERWISE PRESENTS IDEAL PARAMETERS FOR SUPERCELL MODES OF CONVECTION WITH STRONG SPEED AND DIRECTIONAL SHEAR, ESPECIALLY NEAR THE WARM FRONT, TO THE TUNE OF 0-3KM HELICITY AROUND 375 M2/S2. MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO INDICATE 0-3KM CAPE AROUND 230 J/KG WITH LFC AND LCL LESS THAN 3000 FEET, BOTH FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOGENESIS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted April 26, 2011 Share Posted April 26, 2011 RUC... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LizardMafia Posted April 26, 2011 Share Posted April 26, 2011 Actually surprised to see the sun out this morning, figured it would be just a cloudy and rainy all day long.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted April 26, 2011 Share Posted April 26, 2011 Actually surprised to see the sun out this morning, figured it would be just a cloudy and rainy all day long.. As you know, that will increase our chances of instability and svr up north here with the initial wave this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted April 26, 2011 Share Posted April 26, 2011 My guess is that we'll see a high risk at 13z given the setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LizardMafia Posted April 26, 2011 Share Posted April 26, 2011 As you know, that will increase our chances of instability and svr up north here with the initial wave this afternoon. Should be interesting to see how things play out today.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted April 26, 2011 Share Posted April 26, 2011 Interesting trend noted on the SREFs... 15z Yesterday 03z Today The threat is migrating south and west over the last 12 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted April 26, 2011 Share Posted April 26, 2011 High Risk! DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0734 AM CDT TUE APR 26 2011 VALID 261300Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT FOR NE TX...FAR SE OK...EXTREME NW LA...AND THE SRN HALF OF AR... ..THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE HIGH RISK FROM NE TX/SE OK TO THE CONFLUENCE OF THE MS/OH RIVERS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS IN A BROAD SWATH FROM THE SRN PLAINS EWD/NEWD TO THE MS/OH VALLEYS AND THE LOWER GREAT LAKES... ...DANGEROUS TORNADO AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OUTBREAK EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT FROM NE TX ENEWD TO THE MS RIVER... ..SYNOPSIS AN INITIAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER MO/IL WILL EJECT NEWD TOWARD LOWER MI TODAY...WHILE AN INTENSE UPSTREAM JET STREAK PROGRESSES ESEWD TO THE SRN PLAINS BY TONIGHT. MORNING SUBSIDENCE OVER AR /IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING WAVE/ WILL BE REPLACED BY ASCENT BEGINNING ALONG THE RED RIVER VALLEY OF N TX/SRN OK LATER THIS AFTERNOON...SPREADING EWD THIS EVENING INTO SE OK/NE TX AND SRN AR OVERNIGHT. A STRONG SURFACE CYCLONE WILL DEVELOP EWD ALONG THIS SAME CORRIDOR IN RESPONSE TO STRONG UPPER DIVERGENCE IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE 90-100 KT MIDLEVEL JET. THE CYCLOGENESIS WILL ALSO PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A STRENGTHENING SLY/SSWLY LLJ FROM THE ARKLATEX TO THE LOWER MS VALLEY OVERNIGHT. MEANWHILE...RICH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE ACROSS E TX...BENEATH A PLUME OF STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES ORIGINATING TO THE W...WILL PROVIDE MODERATE-STRONG WARM SECTOR INSTABILITY IN ADVANCE OF THE DEVELOPING CYCLONE. THE NET RESULT WILL BE A STRONGLY SHEARED AND UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...WHICH APPEARS SUPPORTIVE OF A DANGEROUS TORNADO AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OUTBREAK. ..S/SE AR INTO NW MS TODAY INITIAL WARM ADVECTION STORMS WILL FORM DURING THE DAY ALONG AND N OF THE OUTFLOW/WARM FRONT ACROSS S/SE AR AND NW MS...AS LOW-LEVEL WAA INCREASES WITH A DEVELOPING LLJ. A FEW SUPERCELLS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE WARM FRONT...WHERE MODERATE INSTABILITY AND EFFECTIVE SRH AOA 200 M2/S2 WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF A FEW TORNADOES...IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. ..ARKLATEX/SE OK LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT OVERNIGHT CONVECTION THAT MOVED OVER AR/NW MS LEFT AN E-W OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT WILL BECOME THE EFFECTIVE WARM FRONT TODAY. FARTHER S...A WEAKENING MCS OVER SRN LA/MS HAS GENERATED A COLD POOL ACROSS CENTRAL LA/E TX...BUT AN UNIMPEDED FEED OF LOW 70S BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS REMAINS TO THE W OF THIS CONVECTION ACROSS SE TX. THE SE TX MOISTURE WILL SURGE NWD TODAY AS THE SRN LA STORMS DISSIPATE...WHILE STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE WARM SECTOR FROM THE W. THESE PROCESSES...COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING...WILL CONTRIBUTE TO AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES OF 2500-3500 J/KG IN THE NE TX WARM SECTOR...WITH SOMEWHAT LESSER INSTABILITY FARTHER E ACROSS NRN LA/SRN AR...AND FARTHER N INTO SE OK. SUPERCELLS ARE EXPECTED TO INITIATE BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS N/NE TX...ALONG THE WARM FRONT AND DRYLINE TO THE IMMEDIATE E/SE OF THE SURFACE LOW...AND SPREAD EWD TOWARD SW AR/NW LA THROUGH TONIGHT. THE STRONG INSTABILITY...EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR IN EXCESS OF 60 KT...EFFECTIVE SRH OF 300-500 M2/S2...AND A SUFFICIENTLY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR LONG-TRACK/DAMAGING TORNADOES WITH DISCRETE AND CLUSTER SUPERCELLS INTO THE LATE EVENING/EARLY NIGHTTIME HOURS. VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL ALSO BE LIKELY WITH THE INITIAL SUPERCELLS. ..NRN LA/SE AR/NW MS/WRN TN TONIGHT AS THE STRONG SYNOPTIC CYCLONE PROGRESSES EWD AND INTERACTS WITH THE UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR...INTENSE CONVECTION IS LIKELY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. INITIAL TORNADIC SUPERCELLS IN NE TX/SW AR AREA SHOULD EVENTUALLY GROW UPSCALE INTO ONE OR MORE INTENSE MCS/S...WHICH COULD EVOLVE INTO BOW ECHOES WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD/INTENSE DAMAGING WINDS...AS WELL AS TORNADOES. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD PROGRESS QUICKLY EWD/NEWD TO THE MS RIVER LATE TONIGHT AS THE SYNOPTIC WAVE BEGINS TO EJECT ENEWD. ..OH VALLEY REGION THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT THE EJECTING LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PROVIDE A BROAD SWATH OF MODERATE-STRONG SWLY MIDLEVEL FLOW...ABOVE RESIDUAL BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. THE LINGERING CLOUDS AND RESIDUAL OUTFLOW FROM PRIOR CONVECTION MAKE THE CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN TODAY ACROSS THE OH VALLEY REGION...THOUGH SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW SUPERCELLS AND/OR BOWING SEGMENTS WITH A RISK FOR A COUPLE OF TORNADOES...DAMAGING WINDS...AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL. ..THOMPSON/COHEN.. 04/26/2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted April 26, 2011 Share Posted April 26, 2011 . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
playmaker Posted April 26, 2011 Share Posted April 26, 2011 High Risk! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrentO Posted April 26, 2011 Share Posted April 26, 2011 Ummm i've never seen an STP that high before 23.6!!! Thats paris TX this afternoon. Good greif. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted April 26, 2011 Share Posted April 26, 2011 Ummm i've never seen an STP that high before 23.6!!! Thats paris TX this afternoon. Good greif. Me either, the highest I have seen I think was a 14.6 last year on 5/10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted April 26, 2011 Share Posted April 26, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted April 26, 2011 Share Posted April 26, 2011 Hopeful this cloud deck breaks up! Would be a hoot to see some sun bake the atmosphere for 3-4 hours!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted April 26, 2011 Share Posted April 26, 2011 Ummm i've never seen an STP that high before 23.6!!! Thats paris TX this afternoon. Good greif. LI of -10.2 and a Total Totals of 60.7....simply amazing! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted April 26, 2011 Share Posted April 26, 2011 I'm jsut about ready to throw in the towel for severe weather up here. The MCSs in the south are disrupting our moisture flow, and that won't help our convective chances at all. I'm hoping this will change quickly though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted April 26, 2011 Share Posted April 26, 2011 I'm jsut about ready to throw in the towel for severe weather up here. The MCSs in the south are disrupting our moisture flow, and that won't help our convective chances at all. I'm hoping this will change quickly though. Isnt that a common theme YEAR ROUND. Gotta love SEMI..LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted April 26, 2011 Share Posted April 26, 2011 Isnt that a common theme YEAR ROUND. Gotta love SEMI..LOL That or stratiform rain in the morning... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted April 26, 2011 Share Posted April 26, 2011 Isnt that a common theme YEAR ROUND. Gotta love SEMI..LOL Good news is a few breaks are starting to develop in the low clouds. Also the HRRR did show some activity developing around 18z. So I guess we'll just have to wait and see how things play out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derecho! Posted April 26, 2011 Share Posted April 26, 2011 Oh boy! Lots of awesome tornadic supercells in the Great Northeast Texas Radar Hole! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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