Stormpc Posted April 27, 2011 Share Posted April 27, 2011 Does that look like another little hook forming on that last frame or 2? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted April 27, 2011 Share Posted April 27, 2011 FUS51 KLWX 272146 TORLWX MDC017-VAC153-177-179-272215- /O.NEW.KLWX.TO.W.0023.110427T2146Z-110427T2215Z/ BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 546 PM EDT WED APR 27 2011 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STERLING VIRGINIA HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... SPOTSYLVANIA COUNTY IN CENTRAL VIRGINIA... STAFFORD COUNTY IN NORTHERN VIRGINIA... PRINCE WILLIAM COUNTY IN NORTHERN VIRGINIA... CHARLES COUNTY IN SOUTHERN MARYLAND... * UNTIL 615 PM EDT * AT 544 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 10 MILES WEST OF STAFFORD...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH. * LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... STAFFORD... TRIANGLE... DUMFRIES... WOODBRIDGE... MONTCLAIR... DALE CITY... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted April 27, 2011 Share Posted April 27, 2011 Sig tor fixed layer is at 2 per 2100 SPC meso Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CranberryWX Posted April 27, 2011 Share Posted April 27, 2011 A lot of heavy rain coming in behind this with an already saturated ground... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted April 27, 2011 Share Posted April 27, 2011 More severe weather prob around 8 or so with those storms going in C/SW VA moving NE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted April 27, 2011 Share Posted April 27, 2011 The cell WSW of RIC near Farmville needs a TOR warn... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted April 27, 2011 Share Posted April 27, 2011 FUNNEL CLOUD REPORTED BY PUBLIC NEAR JUST WEST OF STAFFORD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted April 27, 2011 Author Share Posted April 27, 2011 More severe weather prob around 8 or so with those storms going in C/SW VA moving NE 8's in two hours... this first group will barely be through by then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted April 27, 2011 Share Posted April 27, 2011 Local models also suggest a squall line late tonight. We'll see if that pans out as well. Doesn't seem like CAPE values decrease too much behind these isolated storms I wonder if we can get multiple rounds tonight (a rarity in our area due to atmos getting worked over). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CranberryWX Posted April 27, 2011 Share Posted April 27, 2011 New Tornado Watch just went out for Southern and central WV including my county until 1AM...wasn't expecting that. DISCUSSION...TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY THIS EVENING E OF MIGRATORY SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING NEWD FROM NW OF PAH TOWARD WRN LAKE ERIE. FOCUSED MOISTURE AND HEAT FLUXES OCCURRING ALONG STRENGTHENING LLJ AXIS SHOULD SUPPORT SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION TO SUSTAIN LONG-LIVED UPDRAFTS WITHIN NWD-EXPANDING WARM SECTOR. GIVEN THE STRONG AMBIENT VERTICAL SHEAR IN PLACE...THE POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR SUPERCELLS AND BOWING STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WINDS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted April 27, 2011 Author Share Posted April 27, 2011 the hook and rotation on that storm is increasing lately... might be ground truth if there was a funnel earlier Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Dude Posted April 27, 2011 Share Posted April 27, 2011 I've been watching on trafficland for a while. There is definitely some lowering west of Stafford. For some reason, I can't post images now, but I've got a screen grab. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted April 27, 2011 Share Posted April 27, 2011 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0633 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0500 PM CDT WED APR 27 2011 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 233... VALID 272200Z - 272300Z THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 233 CONTINUES. A REPLACEMENT OF WW 233 IS BEING CONSIDERED FOR THE PIEDMONT OF N-CNTRL NC THROUGH CNTRL MD. TSTM COVERAGE HAS INCREASED TO THE SW OF WW 233 AMIDST A SUPERCELL ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY MLCAPE OF 1000 TO 2000 J/KG AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR AROUND 35 TO 45 KT. WITH THE LOW-LEVEL WIND PROFILE FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE EVENING...TSTMS SHOULD REMAIN CAPABLE OF ALL SEVERE THREATS BEYOND 00Z...POTENTIALLY NECESSITATING A REPLACEMENT WW. ..GRAMS.. 04/27/2011 ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...CTP...LWX...RAH...RNK... http://www.spc.noaa..../md/md0633.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted April 27, 2011 Share Posted April 27, 2011 Ominous sky here. Lots of low mangled clouds whipping around and crashing thunder just to my south. That hook signature looks to be heading directly toward the I95 and Quantico Base exit 148. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted April 27, 2011 Share Posted April 27, 2011 BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 608 PM EDT WED APR 27 2011 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STERLING VIRGINIA HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... STAFFORD COUNTY IN NORTHERN VIRGINIA... PRINCE WILLIAM COUNTY IN NORTHERN VIRGINIA... FAIRFAX COUNTY IN NORTHERN VIRGINIA... CHARLES COUNTY IN SOUTHERN MARYLAND... * UNTIL 645 PM EDT * AT 606 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR TRIANGLE... OR 6 MILES NORTH OF STAFFORD...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH. * LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... INDIAN HEAD... FORT BELVOIR... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted April 27, 2011 Author Share Posted April 27, 2011 storm right behind it to the sw is tightening up a bit too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted April 27, 2011 Share Posted April 27, 2011 Looks to scoot just to my S in a bit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThePhotoGuy Posted April 27, 2011 Share Posted April 27, 2011 New Tornado Watch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted April 27, 2011 Author Share Posted April 27, 2011 Discussion... tstms have rapidly intensified this evening within a moist and moderately unstable environment with MLCAPE values of 1000-2000 j/kg. Deep-layer vertical shear is already supportive of supercells... and low-level shear is forecast to strengthen through the remainder of the evening with effective srh values approaching 250-300 m2/s2. As such... the potential for tornadoes will exist in addition to damaging winds and hail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThePhotoGuy Posted April 27, 2011 Share Posted April 27, 2011 TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 240 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 615 PM EDT WED APR 27 2011 TORNADO WATCH 240 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 200 AM EDT FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS MDC001-003-005-009-013-017-021-025-027-031-033-037-043-510- 280600- /O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0240.110427T2215Z-110428T0600Z/ MD . MARYLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALLEGANY ANNE ARUNDEL BALTIMORE CALVERT CARROLL CHARLES FREDERICK HARFORD HOWARD MONTGOMERY PRINCE GEORGES ST. MARYS WASHINGTON MARYLAND INDEPENDENT CITIES INCLUDED ARE BALTIMORE CITY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted April 27, 2011 Share Posted April 27, 2011 Strap in folks... its going to be a long bumpy night URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 240 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 615 PM EDT WED APR 27 2011 THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA MARYLAND NORTHERN NORTH CAROLINA CENTRAL AND EASTERN VIRGINIA EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA COASTAL WATERS EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING FROM 615 PM UNTIL 200 AM EDT. TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS. THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 70 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 15 MILES NORTHEAST OF MARTINSBURG WEST VIRGINIA TO 30 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF RALEIGH NORTH CAROLINA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0). <snip> DISCUSSION...TSTMS HAVE RAPIDLY INTENSIFIED THIS EVENING WITHIN A MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MLCAPE VALUES OF 1000-2000 J/KG. DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR IS ALREADY SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS...AND LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING WITH EFFECTIVE SRH VALUES APPROACHING 250-300 M2/S2. AS SUCH...THE POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES WILL EXIST IN ADDITION TO DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted April 27, 2011 Share Posted April 27, 2011 Mod across the board, but low (20%) for the EF2+ tor Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted April 27, 2011 Author Share Posted April 27, 2011 it'll be interesting as the llj starts getting going around and after dark. it's still hard to get super impressed up in this area but hey we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted April 27, 2011 Share Posted April 27, 2011 Side Note: Mile wide tor in Tuscaloosa AL... g2g over 180 kts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted April 27, 2011 Share Posted April 27, 2011 BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 617 PM EDT WED APR 27 2011 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STERLING VIRGINIA HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... PRINCE WILLIAM COUNTY IN NORTHERN VIRGINIA... FAIRFAX COUNTY IN NORTHERN VIRGINIA... * UNTIL 700 PM EDT * AT 614 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF PING PONG BALLS AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR DUMFRIES...OR NEAR WOODBRIDGE...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH. * LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... LORTON... NEWINGTON... FORT BELVOIR... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted April 27, 2011 Author Share Posted April 27, 2011 Side Note: Mile wide tor in Tuscaloosa AL... g2g over 180 kts it's the end of the world as we know it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Demeter Posted April 27, 2011 Share Posted April 27, 2011 Saw funnel, not sure if on ground, 5 miles NW of Fredericksburg about 5:30pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted April 27, 2011 Share Posted April 27, 2011 Thunderstorm with CG within 1-2 miles of me in Germantown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted April 27, 2011 Share Posted April 27, 2011 Lookout DC, here come some nice storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted April 27, 2011 Author Share Posted April 27, 2011 someone should do a count on watches this yr vs all of last yr in the dc area.. we might already have more this yr than all last yr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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