Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,586
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    LopezElliana
    Newest Member
    LopezElliana
    Joined

April 26-28 severe risk


Ian

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 593
  • Created
  • Last Reply

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC

343 PM EDT WED APR 27 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STERLING VIRGINIA HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...

ORANGE COUNTY IN CENTRAL VIRGINIA...

ALBEMARLE COUNTY IN CENTRAL VIRGINIA...

* UNTIL 430 PM EDT

* AT 339 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF

HALF DOLLARS AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM

WAS LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN ALBEMARLE COUNTY...OR 15 MILES WEST OF

FORK UNION...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...

WOODRIDGE...

MONTICELLO...

KESWICK...

SHADWELL...

BOYD TAVERN...

CISMONT...

CAMPBELL...

STONY POINT...

COBHAM...

BARBOURSVILLE...

Link to comment
Share on other sites

15z SREF run on SPC is pretty impressive for 00z and even into tomorrow AM.

Also on a side note - I don't think I've ever seen supercell composite parameter numbers of 50 anywhere (look where the tor outbreak is happening right now on mesoanalysis)

Link to comment
Share on other sites

something trying to pop nw of rockville.. that one cell south looks decent but the fact that it's not spinning up might mean something for the broader idea at present.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Perhaps weak rotation in the cell NE of CHO?

there's been some from time to time, looks like some now west of louisa. it's a tiny little cell as far as discrete storms go.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC

503 PM EDT WED APR 27 2011

VAC047-137-177-272130-

/O.CON.KLWX.SV.W.0070.000000T0000Z-110427T2130Z/

SPOTSYLVANIA VA-ORANGE VA-CULPEPER VA-

503 PM EDT WED APR 27 2011

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 530 PM EDT

FOR CULPEPER...ORANGE AND SPOTSYLVANIA COUNTIES...

AT 500 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO

INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL UP TO

THE SIZE OF GOLF BALLS. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 11 MILES EAST OF

ORANGE...OR 16 MILES SOUTH OF CULPEPER...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...

FLAT RUN...

LAKE OF THE WOODS...

LIGNUM...

COOKSTOWN...

RICHARDSVILLE...

DUNAVANT...

BRANDY STATION...

Link to comment
Share on other sites

New MD concerning out Watch:

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0631

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0339 PM CDT WED APR 27 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN VA...ERN WV...MOST OF MD

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 233...

VALID 272039Z - 272145Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 233 CONTINUES.

MESOANALYSIS AT 2030Z SHOWS TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM INTO THE

80S ACROSS THE REGION...WHILE DEWPOINTS CONTINUE TO RESIDE IN THE

MID/UPPER 60S OVER MOST OF THE AREA...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF UPPER

50S TO LOW 60S OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF VA/WV. THE WARMING

BOUNDARY LAYER AIRMASS HAS AIDED IN BOOSTING MLCAPE VALUES TO

1000-1500 J/KG DURING THE LAST HR OVER NRN VA/MD. IN

ADDITION...SFCOA GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT EFFECTIVE SRH VALUES HAVE

INCREASED TO AROUND 200-300 M2 S-2. THIS ENVIRONMENT FAVORS ROTATING

STORMS POSING A THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS/LARGE HAIL AND A FEW

TORNADOES. HOWEVER...CONVECTIVE COVERAGE REMAINS LOW...AND LATEST

HI-RES MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS SOMEWHAT

QUESTIONABLE. THEREFORE...SVR WEATHER THREAT MAY BE MARGINAL DURING

THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON...THOUGH WW 233 SHOULD BE ALLOWED TO

CONTINUE FOR ONGOING STORMS.

..GARNER.. 04/27/2011

Link to comment
Share on other sites

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

TORNADO WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC

508 PM EDT WED APR 27 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STERLING VIRGINIA HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...

SPOTSYLVANIA COUNTY IN CENTRAL VIRGINIA...

ORANGE COUNTY IN CENTRAL VIRGINIA...

* UNTIL 545 PM EDT

* AT 506 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO OVER WESTERN

SPOTSYLVANIA COUNTY...OR 13 MILES NORTH OF MINERAL...MOVING

NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...

PARKER...

LOGAN...

GOLD DALE...

LOCUST GROVE...

COOKSTOWN...

CHANCELLORSVILLE...

LAKE OF THE WOODS...

Link to comment
Share on other sites

New MD concerning out Watch:

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0631

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0339 PM CDT WED APR 27 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN VA...ERN WV...MOST OF MD

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 233...

VALID 272039Z - 272145Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 233 CONTINUES.

MESOANALYSIS AT 2030Z SHOWS TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM INTO THE

80S ACROSS THE REGION...WHILE DEWPOINTS CONTINUE TO RESIDE IN THE

MID/UPPER 60S OVER MOST OF THE AREA...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF UPPER

50S TO LOW 60S OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF VA/WV. THE WARMING

BOUNDARY LAYER AIRMASS HAS AIDED IN BOOSTING MLCAPE VALUES TO

1000-1500 J/KG DURING THE LAST HR OVER NRN VA/MD. IN

ADDITION...SFCOA GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT EFFECTIVE SRH VALUES HAVE

INCREASED TO AROUND 200-300 M2 S-2. THIS ENVIRONMENT FAVORS ROTATING

STORMS POSING A THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS/LARGE HAIL AND A FEW

TORNADOES. HOWEVER...CONVECTIVE COVERAGE REMAINS LOW...AND LATEST

HI-RES MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS SOMEWHAT

QUESTIONABLE. THEREFORE...SVR WEATHER THREAT MAY BE MARGINAL DURING

THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON...THOUGH WW 233 SHOULD BE ALLOWED TO

CONTINUE FOR ONGOING STORMS.

..GARNER.. 04/27/2011

sounds about right. i wish there was a numbered scale or something for watches. like this is a level 0 tornado watch or whatnot.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...