yoda Posted April 26, 2011 Share Posted April 26, 2011 I am thinking southern and eastern suburbs of DC may see some storms in the hour Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted April 26, 2011 Share Posted April 26, 2011 BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 704 PM EDT TUE APR 26 2011 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BLACKSBURG HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... CITY OF LYNCHBURG IN CENTRAL VIRGINIA NORTHERN CAMPBELL COUNTY IN CENTRAL VIRGINIA WESTERN BUCKINGHAM COUNTY IN CENTRAL VIRGINIA NORTHWESTERN APPOMATTOX COUNTY IN CENTRAL VIRGINIA SOUTHEASTERN AMHERST COUNTY IN CENTRAL VIRGINIA * UNTIL 745 PM EDT. * AT 703 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR MADISON HEIGHTS...OR NEAR LYNCHBURG CITY...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH. * LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... MADISON HEIGHTS... FALCONERVILLE... AMHERST... RIVERVILLE... NEW GLASGOW... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted April 26, 2011 Share Posted April 26, 2011 Nelson/Albermarle STWed again... hail to size of quarters and damaging winds in excess of 60 mph Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted April 27, 2011 Share Posted April 27, 2011 Severe warning for Rockingham County Va in the valley now Line is slowly making its way East. Saw some lighting to my SW coming home from IAD tonight TORNADO WARNING Allegany county in Western Md now NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 852 PM EDT TUE APR 26 2011 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STERLING VIRGINIA HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... ALLEGANY COUNTY IN WESTERN MARYLAND... * UNTIL 930 PM EDT * AT 848 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR FROSTBURG...MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH. * LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... WOLFE MILL... PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING AND AVOID WINDOWS. IF OUTDOORS OR IN A MOBILE HOME OR VEHICLE...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted April 27, 2011 Share Posted April 27, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted April 27, 2011 Share Posted April 27, 2011 New warning SW of OKV BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 901 PM EDT TUE APR 26 2011 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STERLING VIRGINIA HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... SHENANDOAH COUNTY IN NORTHWEST VIRGINIA... HARDY COUNTY IN EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA... HAMPSHIRE COUNTY IN EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA... FREDERICK COUNTY IN NORTHWEST VIRGINIA... * UNTIL 930 PM EDT * AT 901 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO OVER CENTRAL HARDY COUNTY...OR 9 MILES EAST OF MOOREFIELD...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH. * LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... KIRBY... RIO... WARDENSVILLE... DELRAY... CAPON SPRINGS... YELLOW SPRING... LEHEW... WILDE ACRES... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted April 27, 2011 Share Posted April 27, 2011 Meh, not overly impressive rotation on radar with that latest TOR warning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted April 27, 2011 Share Posted April 27, 2011 A decent amount of our area is in the 30% wind for today and the 5% tornado. Here's a grab from the SPC SREF run that shows "Significant Tornado Ingredients" for part of tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted April 27, 2011 Share Posted April 27, 2011 Also, same SREF run (03z) on SPC has supercell composite parameter getting to 12 later on tonight. Earl Barker website had the 00z NAM throwing out very decent CAPE along with 85% supercell probs for tonight. GFS got to like 75%. I still don't know how much we can get with the unfavorable timing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted April 27, 2011 Share Posted April 27, 2011 09z SREF sig tor parameter has the mean sig tor parameter of 3 across LWX at 0900 UTC and 1200 UTC tomorrow morning and a 30 percent contour for 5 at 1200 UTC (aka 5 and 8 am) Supercell composites are also at 12 for both hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CranberryWX Posted April 27, 2011 Share Posted April 27, 2011 Tornado Watches are getting closer...now into parts of E. KY. Meso discussion mentions possible watch for OH, and western WV. MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0617 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0839 AM CDT WED APR 27 2011 AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF OH/FAR NORTHEAST KY INTO WV CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE VALID 271339Z - 271445Z ALTHOUGH THE NEED FOR A WATCH IS UNCLEAR...MONITORING SHORT TERM TRENDS FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF A WATCH ISSUANCE ACROSS MUCH OF OH/FAR NORTHEAST KY AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF WV. A WELL-ORGANIZED SQUALL LINE CONTINUES TO STEADILY PROGRESS EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT AROUND 35-40 KT ACROSS SOUTHWEST OH/EASTERN KY EARLY THIS MORNING. SOME INDICATIONS IMPLY THAT A WEAKENING TREND MAY GRADUALLY OCCUR /SUCH AS A DECREASE IN CG LIGHTNING AND WARMING CLOUD TOPS/...BUT THE RELATIVELY FAST MOVING/ORGANIZED NATURE OF THE QLCS MAY CONTINUE TO YIELD A DAMAGING WIND/PERHAPS ISOLATED TORNADO RISK WITHIN A HIGHLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT /REFERENCE 12Z REGIONAL OBSERVED RAOBS AND MORE RECENT WSR-88D VWPS/. WHILE THE NEED FOR A WATCH IS A BIT UNCERTAIN...SHORT TERM TRENDS ARE BEING CLOSELY MONITORED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF A WATCH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted April 27, 2011 Share Posted April 27, 2011 09z SREF sig tor parameter has the mean sig tor parameter of 3 across LWX at 0900 UTC and 1200 UTC tomorrow morning and a 30 percent contour for 5 at 1200 UTC (aka 5 and 8 am) Supercell composites are also at 12 for both hours Ian should be chiming in here soon with a big "meh" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted April 27, 2011 Share Posted April 27, 2011 Ian should be chiming in here soon with a big "meh" The sig tor ingredients from the 03z SREF though did go meh after there was a 30-40 in SW VA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted April 27, 2011 Share Posted April 27, 2011 The sig tor ingredients from the 03z SREF though did go meh after there was a 30-40 in SW VA We have gotten tornadoes with zero sig tor ingredients though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted April 27, 2011 Share Posted April 27, 2011 Timing is still a big problem here. Early morning arrival is not favorable at all during diurnal min. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted April 27, 2011 Share Posted April 27, 2011 We have gotten tornadoes with zero sig tor ingredients though Well I meant more the chance of a strong tornado (EF2+) Timing is still a big problem here. Early morning arrival is not favorable at all during diurnal min. I know, but it was no problem in the SE. I know we are different up here, but I still think that this could be quite the dynamic system for us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted April 27, 2011 Author Share Posted April 27, 2011 Timing is still a big problem here. Early morning arrival is not favorable at all during diurnal min. looks like the nam sped up a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted April 27, 2011 Share Posted April 27, 2011 looks like the nam sped up a bit. Yes it did. I wonder if we can get anything from it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CranberryWX Posted April 27, 2011 Share Posted April 27, 2011 This first line approaching is way ahead of the front and will probably keep heating down today in the western portions with left over clouds. I don't see them issuing a watch for this current line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted April 27, 2011 Share Posted April 27, 2011 Updated LWX discussion mentions tornado threat increasing as hodographs enlarge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted April 27, 2011 Share Posted April 27, 2011 12z NAM on Earl Barker model page... :unsure: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted April 27, 2011 Author Share Posted April 27, 2011 12z NAM on Earl Barker model page... :unsure: raining death? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted April 27, 2011 Author Share Posted April 27, 2011 there's not much spark today.. we'll see. looks like one front running vort later afternoon or evening but needs to be well placed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted April 27, 2011 Share Posted April 27, 2011 raining death? SRH's above 500 at 12z THUR with SBCAPE near 1000 and EHI over 4 this afternoon at KIAD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted April 27, 2011 Share Posted April 27, 2011 Not much changed in the 1630 OTLK ..CNTRL TO NRN APPALACHIAN MTNS/CAROLINAS/ERN GULF COAST STATES THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CNTRL STATES WILL MOVE INTO THE MS VALLEY THIS EVENING AS A POWERFUL MID-LEVEL JET EJECTS NEWD OUT OF THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. THE EXIT REGION OF THE MID-LEVEL JET WILL MOVE INTO THE CNTRL APPALACHIAN MTNS AND ERN GREAT LAKES WHERE DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILES WILL BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS TONIGHT. ALONG AND TO THE EAST OF THE JET AXIS...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED FROM ERN OH EXTENDING SWD INTO FAR WRN SC AROUND 06Z. THIS LINE SHOULD MOVE EWD ACROSS NY...PA...VA...NC AND SC WHERE A WIND DAMAGE THREAT SHOULD EXIST DUE TO STRONG LOW-LEVEL FLOW. AN ENHANCED WIND DAMAGE THREAT COULD EXIST ACROSS VA AND WRN CAROLINAS WHERE THE MODELS DEVELOP MODERATE INSTABILITY AFTER 06Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted April 27, 2011 Share Posted April 27, 2011 Long time lurker here. My girlfriend is a teacher and has an outdoor field trip leaving tomorrow morning (thursday) at 9:15am from Falls Church, Va. Do you think the storms will be out by then? Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted April 27, 2011 Share Posted April 27, 2011 Long time lurker here. My girlfriend is a teacher and has an outdoor field trip leaving tomorrow morning (thursday) at 9:15am from Falls Church, Va. Do you think the storms will be out by then? Thanks! It'll be close... definitely wouldn't want to leave before then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted April 27, 2011 Author Share Posted April 27, 2011 torn watch maybe for northwest areas http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0624.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted April 27, 2011 Author Share Posted April 27, 2011 torn watch west/sw of dc http://www.spc.noaa....tch/ww0233.html DISCUSSION...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE INCREASING ACROSS PORTIONS OF NC/VA IN REGION OF WARM/MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS. INCREASING MID AND LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS THROUGH THE DAY SUGGEST A RISK OF ORGANIZED/SUPERCELL STORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. THE TORNADO THREAT IS NOT PARTICULARLY HIGH...BUT SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS PRESENT FOR A RISK OF ISOLATED SPIN UPS IN THE MOST INTENSE SUPERCELLS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted April 27, 2011 Share Posted April 27, 2011 I like the chunk taken out for the metro areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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