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April 26-28 severe risk


Ian

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Anybody experience that bow echo between Fredericksburg and Richmond? Looks absolutely wicked on radar. Heading toward Wes.

i have an employee working in Ruther Glen this morn. warned him to take cover as he's working outside and he reported back with slightly larger than pea sized hail, wind and heavy downpour but i can't trust a wind speed estimate from him...he said about 40 mph but i have no idea how he could know that.

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Dang. Major splittage. I have only lived here in DC for a little under a year. Is this typical?

people say it's a myth but it's rather frequent. i do think there is some tendancy for splitting in a downslope flow off the mtns.

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I'de gladly give you guys some of our rain. this having to mow the lawn every 3 days thing gets old fast

It's pretty lush here.. as much as I can remember for this time of year, but I guess we've been missed by the heaviest at least.

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people say it's a myth but it's rather frequent. i do think there is some tendancy for splitting in a downslope flow off the mtns.

This system might be different, but how many times have we seen storms come off the mountains, die just west of DC, then reform to the east?

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This system might be different, but how many times have we seen storms come off the mountains, die just west of DC, then reform to the east?

i think any given spot probably gets split a lot.. so it's partly in our heads. convection is usually kind of random, which is why im often "meh" day of just because you never know 'til it goes in most cases. i think we get a mini rockies type of effect around (often with lee trough etc) here where places closest to the apps miss out on development east of the apps more often than those east... we're often in the generation zone so you see a lot of split lines move through. the flow yesterday into today is a bit different than our typical, so perhaps it's more random than usual in this case.

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It's pretty lush here.. as much as I can remember for this time of year, but I guess we've been missed by the heaviest at least.

Well, at least the construction crews can work today. it seems like they are ripping up every good road and leaving the bad roads for later here in Adelphi and Silver Spring. That one section on Piney Branch between University BLVD and Sligo Creek Parkway has been horrific for over a year.

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i think any given spot probably gets split a lot.. so it's partly in our heads. convection is usually kind of random, which is why im often "meh" day of just because you never know 'til it goes in most cases. i think we get a mini rockies type of effect around (often with lee trough etc) here where places closest to the apps miss out on development east of the apps more often than those east... we're often in the generation zone so you see a lot of split lines move through. the flow yesterday into today is a bit different than our typical, so perhaps it's more random than usual in this case.

its been that way as long as i can remember w/ west to east moving systems/storms and i've been here for 40 years.

people who have lived here their whole lives but know nothing about the hows and whys of weather have always discounted anything coming from the west rather than from the south.

edit: and i was agreeing with multiple points of yours...def partly in peeps' heads and def a bit of mountain/downslope effect.

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200 million hours of tornado watches, eh Ian? :lol:

I'm trying to think what other days were even half as long of tornado watches.. the only one I can think of recently would be Ivan, looks like about 12 (well, technically about 11) hours in D.C. area.

http://www.spc.noaa....004/ww0832.html

http://www.spc.noaa....004/ww0833.html

http://www.spc.noaa....004/ww0834.html

http://www.spc.noaa....004/ww0835.html

http://www.spc.noaa....004/ww0836.html

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its been that way as long as i can remember w/ west to east moving systems/storms and i've been here for 40 years.

people who have lived here their whole lives but know nothing about the hows and whys of weather have always discounted anything coming from the west rather than from the south.

edit: and i was agreeing with multiple points of yours...def partly in peeps' heads and def a bit of mountain/downslope effect.

yeah, i guess it makes general sense.. though most of our severe weather events come from the west or northwest, so it's tricky.

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yeah, i guess it makes general sense.. though most of our severe weather events come from the west or northwest, so it's tricky.

speed of the front prolly has something to do with it as well...slow = develop west of metro, fast = further east

yeah, tricky and hard to get excited until its going down.

good stuff yest and this morn. the tor warned cell that moved from Louisa thru Belmont and on thru Mine Run went right overhead around 9:05 last night.

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Is the front through? and if so are we done or is there more going to develop in the PM?

I think it's around or past IAD at this point, maybe further east.. dews are starting to drop out there at least.

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perhaps the most disturbing thing in this whole event is people like Henry M come out looking good after their dire predictions last week... score one for the hypesters

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perhaps the most disturbing thing in this whole event is people like Henry M come out looking good after their dire predictions last week... score one for the hypesters

I mean, can you really be surprised? Models were pegging DC in the dry zone. Though, the QPF that did fall didn't even live up to the model's expectations. Perhaps the front isn't quite done yet. It's unfortunate how you were just on the fringe yesterday and got fooked with bad timing today, maybe next time!

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Seriously fringed all night last night and all this morning.

I'm not upset from a rain/moisture standpoint, but I am a little bummed that I missed the good stuff on Easter and didn't get to experience any good boomers in this go-round.

Aside: Thoughts and prayers to all those folks affected in the South by this system.

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Sun.

:P

Just got through helping my neighbor chain saw a couple of big cherry trees that went down last night. Weird. They were side by side, about 20 feet apart. They were both about 50 to 60 feet and 20 inches or so diameter. They were the only casualties thankfully. Can't imagine what life in Alabama is like right now.

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