Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,586
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    LopezElliana
    Newest Member
    LopezElliana
    Joined

April 26-28 severe risk


Ian

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 593
  • Created
  • Last Reply

i would not expect the nighttime activity to be terribly strong up here if any spinups make it down.. nighttime tornadoes are dangerous though in any capacity

I dunno... it seems like the atmosphere supports it. This might be the only time for a while that we get to see storms like this late late at night. Besides, I bet you were saying "whoa" when you read the LWX disco too :P

Link to comment
Share on other sites

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

TORNADO WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC

207 AM EDT THU APR 28 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STERLING VIRGINIA HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...

CITY OF STAUNTON IN WESTERN VIRGINIA...

AUGUSTA COUNTY IN WESTERN VIRGINIA...

* UNTIL 300 AM EDT

* AT 203 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 20 MILES

SOUTHWEST OF BUFFALO GAP...OR NEAR GOSHEN...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55

MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...

BUFFALO GAP...

CRAIGSVILLE...

AUGUSTA SPRINGS...

CHURCHVILLE...

DEERFIELD...

Link to comment
Share on other sites

It is likely that I will stay up until at least 8am. This does not look good. Who ever heard of dewpoints 69-70 degrees this time of year in N VA in such an unstable environment?

I saw those low clouds racing by like a bat straight out of hell this afternoon. There's a lot of energy involved with this system and it's primed to explode tonight.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC

210 AM EDT THU APR 28 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STERLING VIRGINIA HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...

PAGE COUNTY IN NORTHWEST VIRGINIA...

WARREN COUNTY IN NORTHWEST VIRGINIA...

SHENANDOAH COUNTY IN NORTHWEST VIRGINIA...

HARDY COUNTY IN EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA...

HAMPSHIRE COUNTY IN EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA...

ROCKINGHAM COUNTY IN WESTERN VIRGINIA...

FREDERICK COUNTY IN NORTHWEST VIRGINIA...

* UNTIL 315 AM EDT

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I dunno... it seems like the atmosphere supports it. This might be the only time for a while that we get to see storms like this late late at night. Besides, I bet you were saying "whoa" when you read the LWX disco too :P

everything is spinning.. even a small tornado can kill people sleeping in a mobile home or something. i read things in a nuanced way. im sure more torn warns are coming, usually these really high shear events dont produce massively around here at night. it can happen.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Per 0600 SPC mesoanalysis -- Mid-Level Lapse rates are 7 C/KM and above east of the Apps, 1500 MLCAPE right over N VA/C MD. Around 1000 SBCAPE. Derecho composite is a 6 in N VA. 3km EHI and 1km EHI 3-5 in N VA/C MD. 0-6 km shear ~50 kts, with 1km bulk shear 40-50 kts. Supercell composite is 16 in VA/MD... but a pocket of 20 in N VA. Sig tor fixed layer is 3-4 in N VA/C MD... sig tor effective layer is 3-4 with an area of 5 in NW VA/W MD

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Per 0600 SPC mesoanalysis -- Mid-Level Lapse rates are 7 C/KM and above east of the Apps, 1500 MLCAPE right over N VA/C MD. Around 1000 SBCAPE. Derecho composite is a 6 in N VA. 3km EHI and 1km EHI 3-5 in N VA/C MD. 0-6 km shear ~50 kts, with 1km bulk shear 40-50 kts. Supercell composite is 16 in VA/MD... but a pocket of 20 in N VA. Sig tor fixed layer is 3-4 in N VA/C MD... sig tor effective layer is 3-4 with an area of 5 in NW VA/W MD

It just keeps increasing. Wow.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Intensifying...

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC

227 AM EDT THU APR 28 2011

VAC069-139-165-171-187-WVC027-031-280715-

/O.CON.KLWX.SV.W.0085.000000T0000Z-110428T0715Z/

PAGE VA-WARREN VA-SHENANDOAH VA-HARDY WV-HAMPSHIRE WV-ROCKINGHAM VA-

FREDERICK VA-

227 AM EDT THU APR 28 2011

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 315 AM EDT

FOR FREDERICK...ROCKINGHAM...HAMPSHIRE...HARDY...SHENANDOAH...WARREN

AND PAGE COUNTIES...

AT 225 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO

INDICATE A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL UP

TO THE SIZE OF HALF DOLLARS AND DESTRUCTIVE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70

MPH. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 11 MILES

SOUTH OF ROMNEY TO MATHIAS TO 5 MILES NORTHEAST OF TIMBERVILLE...

MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

TORNADO WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC

224 AM EDT THU APR 28 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STERLING VIRGINIA HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...

SHENANDOAH COUNTY IN NORTHWEST VIRGINIA...

* UNTIL 300 AM EDT

* AT 221 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 8 MILES WEST OF

MOUNT JACKSON...OR 20 MILES SOUTHEAST OF ROUGH RUN...MOVING

NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...

MOUNT JACKSON...

EDINBURG...

HARMONY...

WOODSTOCK...

Link to comment
Share on other sites

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

TORNADO WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC

253 AM EDT THU APR 28 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STERLING VIRGINIA HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...

CITY OF HARRISONBURG IN WESTERN VIRGINIA...

PAGE COUNTY IN NORTHWEST VIRGINIA...

SHENANDOAH COUNTY IN NORTHWEST VIRGINIA...

ROCKINGHAM COUNTY IN WESTERN VIRGINIA...

* UNTIL 345 AM EDT

* AT 248 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR DALE

ENTERPRISE...OR 23 MILES NORTHEAST OF BUFFALO GAP...MOVING

NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...

HARRISONBURG...

LINVILLE...

BROADWAY...

TIMBERVILLE...

MOUNT JACKSON...

Link to comment
Share on other sites

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC

259 AM EDT THU APR 28 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STERLING VIRGINIA HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...

WASHINGTON COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL MARYLAND...

FREDERICK COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL MARYLAND...

WARREN COUNTY IN NORTHWEST VIRGINIA...

CITY OF WINCHESTER IN NORTHWEST VIRGINIA...

CLARKE COUNTY IN NORTHWEST VIRGINIA...

LOUDOUN COUNTY IN NORTHERN VIRGINIA...

JEFFERSON COUNTY IN THE PANHANDLE OF WEST VIRGINIA...

BERKELEY COUNTY IN THE PANHANDLE OF WEST VIRGINIA...

MORGAN COUNTY IN THE PANHANDLE OF WEST VIRGINIA...

* UNTIL 415 AM EDT

* AT 257 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A

LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL UP TO THE

SIZE OF QUARTERS AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THESE

STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 8 MILES SOUTH OF

VALLEY HIGH TO STEPHENS CITY...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 65 MPH.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

This is one hell of an event. If we can get this much action at 2:50am in April what can we do in May at 5pm?

:lol:

This is a pretty nasty combination of a pretty good thermodynamic environment with some excellent shear. Fairly steep ML lapse rates combining with increase low-level WAA and moisture transport and increasing theta-e is really helping to not only keep things unstable but helping to destabilize the atmosphere even further!

Supercell composite parameter is 20 with sig tor of 4...that's insane for this time of night. You even have Dcape values over 1000 J/KG.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

:lol:

This is a pretty nasty combination of a pretty good thermodynamic environment with some excellent shear. Fairly steep ML lapse rates combining with increase low-level WAA and moisture transport and increasing theta-e is really helping to not only keep things unstable but helping to destabilize the atmosphere even further!

Supercell composite parameter is 20 with sig tor of 4...that's insane for this time of night. You even have Dcape values over 1000 J/KG.

Wiz in our thread! You know it's rockin.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...