southmdwatcher Posted April 28, 2011 Share Posted April 28, 2011 The storm approaching Lexington VA really looks disturbing, and the one following behind just west of Roanoke as well, they seem to be at least maintaining themselves if not gaining better structure as they race northeast up the valley Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted April 28, 2011 Share Posted April 28, 2011 RNK keeps issuing tornado warnings... won't be long before the SW portion of the LWX CWA gets tornado warned at this rate There's two more... they are all moving NE from 50-70 mph Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted April 28, 2011 Author Share Posted April 28, 2011 i would not expect the nighttime activity to be terribly strong up here if any spinups make it down.. nighttime tornadoes are dangerous though in any capacity Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted April 28, 2011 Author Share Posted April 28, 2011 now that everyone in the world sees tornadoes im not sure i need to go chasing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted April 28, 2011 Share Posted April 28, 2011 i would not expect the nighttime activity to be terribly strong up here if any spinups make it down.. nighttime tornadoes are dangerous though in any capacity I dunno... it seems like the atmosphere supports it. This might be the only time for a while that we get to see storms like this late late at night. Besides, I bet you were saying "whoa" when you read the LWX disco too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted April 28, 2011 Share Posted April 28, 2011 New Day 1 SPC 0600 OTLK -- 15% hail, 30% wind, 10% tor Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted April 28, 2011 Share Posted April 28, 2011 BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 207 AM EDT THU APR 28 2011 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STERLING VIRGINIA HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... CITY OF STAUNTON IN WESTERN VIRGINIA... AUGUSTA COUNTY IN WESTERN VIRGINIA... * UNTIL 300 AM EDT * AT 203 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 20 MILES SOUTHWEST OF BUFFALO GAP...OR NEAR GOSHEN...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH. * LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... BUFFALO GAP... CRAIGSVILLE... AUGUSTA SPRINGS... CHURCHVILLE... DEERFIELD... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted April 28, 2011 Share Posted April 28, 2011 It is likely that I will stay up until at least 8am. This does not look good. Who ever heard of dewpoints 69-70 degrees this time of year in N VA in such an unstable environment? I saw those low clouds racing by like a bat straight out of hell this afternoon. There's a lot of energy involved with this system and it's primed to explode tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted April 28, 2011 Share Posted April 28, 2011 Mid Level Lapse Rates are 7 C/KM...at 2 am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted April 28, 2011 Share Posted April 28, 2011 BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 210 AM EDT THU APR 28 2011 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STERLING VIRGINIA HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... PAGE COUNTY IN NORTHWEST VIRGINIA... WARREN COUNTY IN NORTHWEST VIRGINIA... SHENANDOAH COUNTY IN NORTHWEST VIRGINIA... HARDY COUNTY IN EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA... HAMPSHIRE COUNTY IN EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA... ROCKINGHAM COUNTY IN WESTERN VIRGINIA... FREDERICK COUNTY IN NORTHWEST VIRGINIA... * UNTIL 315 AM EDT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted April 28, 2011 Author Share Posted April 28, 2011 I dunno... it seems like the atmosphere supports it. This might be the only time for a while that we get to see storms like this late late at night. Besides, I bet you were saying "whoa" when you read the LWX disco too everything is spinning.. even a small tornado can kill people sleeping in a mobile home or something. i read things in a nuanced way. im sure more torn warns are coming, usually these really high shear events dont produce massively around here at night. it can happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted April 28, 2011 Share Posted April 28, 2011 New Day 1 SPC 0600 OTLK -- 15% hail, 30% wind, 10% tor That's probably the one from earlier (Valid until 12z) click on the conv. outlook page to see the one valid after 12z Nvm - you were correct! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted April 28, 2011 Share Posted April 28, 2011 The mesoanalysis parameters are insane - supercell near 20 sigtor near 4-5 craven sigsvr is near 50,000 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted April 28, 2011 Share Posted April 28, 2011 Echo tops are near 50kft on those storms! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TradeWinds Posted April 28, 2011 Share Posted April 28, 2011 My temperature has been rising the last few hours in Frederick, MD. Up to 72.4F with a dewpoint of 69F. NWS temps approaching mid-70s at Martinsburg, Hagerstown, and Winchester. Crazy for a night temp in April. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted April 28, 2011 Share Posted April 28, 2011 Per 0600 SPC mesoanalysis -- Mid-Level Lapse rates are 7 C/KM and above east of the Apps, 1500 MLCAPE right over N VA/C MD. Around 1000 SBCAPE. Derecho composite is a 6 in N VA. 3km EHI and 1km EHI 3-5 in N VA/C MD. 0-6 km shear ~50 kts, with 1km bulk shear 40-50 kts. Supercell composite is 16 in VA/MD... but a pocket of 20 in N VA. Sig tor fixed layer is 3-4 in N VA/C MD... sig tor effective layer is 3-4 with an area of 5 in NW VA/W MD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted April 28, 2011 Share Posted April 28, 2011 Per 0600 SPC mesoanalysis -- Mid-Level Lapse rates are 7 C/KM and above east of the Apps, 1500 MLCAPE right over N VA/C MD. Around 1000 SBCAPE. Derecho composite is a 6 in N VA. 3km EHI and 1km EHI 3-5 in N VA/C MD. 0-6 km shear ~50 kts, with 1km bulk shear 40-50 kts. Supercell composite is 16 in VA/MD... but a pocket of 20 in N VA. Sig tor fixed layer is 3-4 in N VA/C MD... sig tor effective layer is 3-4 with an area of 5 in NW VA/W MD It just keeps increasing. Wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted April 28, 2011 Share Posted April 28, 2011 Intensifying... SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 227 AM EDT THU APR 28 2011 VAC069-139-165-171-187-WVC027-031-280715- /O.CON.KLWX.SV.W.0085.000000T0000Z-110428T0715Z/ PAGE VA-WARREN VA-SHENANDOAH VA-HARDY WV-HAMPSHIRE WV-ROCKINGHAM VA- FREDERICK VA- 227 AM EDT THU APR 28 2011 ...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 315 AM EDT FOR FREDERICK...ROCKINGHAM...HAMPSHIRE...HARDY...SHENANDOAH...WARREN AND PAGE COUNTIES... AT 225 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO INDICATE A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF HALF DOLLARS AND DESTRUCTIVE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 11 MILES SOUTH OF ROMNEY TO MATHIAS TO 5 MILES NORTHEAST OF TIMBERVILLE... MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted April 28, 2011 Share Posted April 28, 2011 Tons of lightning showing on my GR2AE with these as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted April 28, 2011 Share Posted April 28, 2011 BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 224 AM EDT THU APR 28 2011 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STERLING VIRGINIA HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... SHENANDOAH COUNTY IN NORTHWEST VIRGINIA... * UNTIL 300 AM EDT * AT 221 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 8 MILES WEST OF MOUNT JACKSON...OR 20 MILES SOUTHEAST OF ROUGH RUN...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH. * LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... MOUNT JACKSON... EDINBURG... HARMONY... WOODSTOCK... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted April 28, 2011 Share Posted April 28, 2011 Def looks like strong rotation in western Shenendoah county Composite radar loop makes it look like something bad is going on in shenendoah county(there is a strong "S" shape showing up) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted April 28, 2011 Share Posted April 28, 2011 This is one hell of an event. If we can get this much action at 2:50am in April what can we do in May at 5pm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted April 28, 2011 Share Posted April 28, 2011 BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 253 AM EDT THU APR 28 2011 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STERLING VIRGINIA HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... CITY OF HARRISONBURG IN WESTERN VIRGINIA... PAGE COUNTY IN NORTHWEST VIRGINIA... SHENANDOAH COUNTY IN NORTHWEST VIRGINIA... ROCKINGHAM COUNTY IN WESTERN VIRGINIA... * UNTIL 345 AM EDT * AT 248 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR DALE ENTERPRISE...OR 23 MILES NORTHEAST OF BUFFALO GAP...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH. * LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... HARRISONBURG... LINVILLE... BROADWAY... TIMBERVILLE... MOUNT JACKSON... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted April 28, 2011 Share Posted April 28, 2011 Fairly large tor warning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted April 28, 2011 Share Posted April 28, 2011 Starting to see signs of organization of that cell back to the west of Lexington, VA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted April 28, 2011 Share Posted April 28, 2011 100kt couplet with a donut hole just tore through the nw side of Harrisonburg VA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted April 28, 2011 Share Posted April 28, 2011 BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 259 AM EDT THU APR 28 2011 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STERLING VIRGINIA HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... WASHINGTON COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL MARYLAND... FREDERICK COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL MARYLAND... WARREN COUNTY IN NORTHWEST VIRGINIA... CITY OF WINCHESTER IN NORTHWEST VIRGINIA... CLARKE COUNTY IN NORTHWEST VIRGINIA... LOUDOUN COUNTY IN NORTHERN VIRGINIA... JEFFERSON COUNTY IN THE PANHANDLE OF WEST VIRGINIA... BERKELEY COUNTY IN THE PANHANDLE OF WEST VIRGINIA... MORGAN COUNTY IN THE PANHANDLE OF WEST VIRGINIA... * UNTIL 415 AM EDT * AT 257 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 8 MILES SOUTH OF VALLEY HIGH TO STEPHENS CITY...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 65 MPH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southmdwatcher Posted April 28, 2011 Share Posted April 28, 2011 There are storms in the Valley and along the Blue Ridge but......At this time the Tuscaloosa/Birmingham supercell is ramping up again in western North Carolina about to hit Morganton still racing northeast. toward southern VA....what a system Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted April 28, 2011 Share Posted April 28, 2011 This is one hell of an event. If we can get this much action at 2:50am in April what can we do in May at 5pm? This is a pretty nasty combination of a pretty good thermodynamic environment with some excellent shear. Fairly steep ML lapse rates combining with increase low-level WAA and moisture transport and increasing theta-e is really helping to not only keep things unstable but helping to destabilize the atmosphere even further! Supercell composite parameter is 20 with sig tor of 4...that's insane for this time of night. You even have Dcape values over 1000 J/KG. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted April 28, 2011 Share Posted April 28, 2011 This is a pretty nasty combination of a pretty good thermodynamic environment with some excellent shear. Fairly steep ML lapse rates combining with increase low-level WAA and moisture transport and increasing theta-e is really helping to not only keep things unstable but helping to destabilize the atmosphere even further! Supercell composite parameter is 20 with sig tor of 4...that's insane for this time of night. You even have Dcape values over 1000 J/KG. Wiz in our thread! You know it's rockin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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