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April 26-28 severe risk


Ian

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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

TORNADO WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC

940 PM EDT WED APR 27 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STERLING VIRGINIA HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...

ORANGE COUNTY IN CENTRAL VIRGINIA...

MADISON COUNTY IN NORTHWEST VIRGINIA...

CULPEPER COUNTY IN NORTHERN VIRGINIA...

* UNTIL 1015 PM EDT

* AT 939 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO OVER

SOUTHEASTERN MADISON COUNTY...OR 15 MILES SOUTHWEST OF CULPEPER...

MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...

LOCUST DALE...

RAPIDAN...

OAKPARK...

MITCHELLS...

FORDSVILLE...

WINSTON...

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Lookit that F'burg cell veering north, to be sure it misses DC!

Hoping to get at least a bit of rain in Arlington at some point tonight...would be nice to get some of this pollen out of the air. Storms are doing their best to miss the region.

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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

TORNADO WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC

1000 PM EDT WED APR 27 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STERLING VIRGINIA HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...

CULPEPER COUNTY IN NORTHERN VIRGINIA...

FAUQUIER COUNTY IN NORTHERN VIRGINIA...

* UNTIL 1030 PM EDT

* AT 957 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR CULPEPER...

MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...

BEALETON...

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Hey, question for you severe weather guys and gals. My sister lives in Knoxville, so naturally I'm concerned tonight. In reading the latest tornado warnings down there, I read that the NWS was tracking a storm producing a possible tornado and that the STORM was moving to the ne at 70 mph. My question is, if the storm is moving at that rate, wouldn't it have to have winds of at least 70 mph on its SE side?

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Hey, question for you severe weather guys and gals. My sister lives in Knoxville, so naturally I'm concerned tonight. In reading the latest tornado warnings down there, I read that the NWS was tracking a storm producing a possible tornado and that the STORM was moving to the ne at 70 mph. My question is, if the storm is moving at that rate, wouldn't it have to have winds of at least 70 mph on its SE side?

Potentially but I don't think that always is the case. The winds also have to mix down and other factors have to be present. Certainly if it is moving that fast it means that the flow is extremely fast.

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SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC

1015 PM EDT WED APR 27 2011

VAC047-061-280230-

/O.CON.KLWX.TO.W.0034.000000T0000Z-110428T0230Z/

CULPEPER VA-FAUQUIER VA-

1015 PM EDT WED APR 27 2011

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1030 PM EDT FOR FAUQUIER

AND CULPEPER COUNTIES...

AT 1011 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO

INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS

TORNADO WAS LOCATED 7 MILES EAST OF CULPEPER...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35

MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...

REMINGTON...

BEALETON...

LOIS...

OPAL...

MIDLAND...

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LWX discussion updated -

key points bolded

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...

MOIST UNSTABLE AIR MASS REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE CWA. THIS

COMBINED WITH DECENT SHEAR HAS SUPPORTED ORGANIZED SUPERCELLULAR

CONVECTION DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TORNADO WATCH

CURRENTLY GOES UNTIL 06Z. SEVERE THREAT MAY DIMINISH BEFORE

THEN...BUT CONSIDERING THE 00Z KIAD SOUNDING AND LATEST RADAR

TRENDS THE THREAT FOR SEVERE MAY CONTINUE UNTIL 03Z OR 04Z...MAINLY

IN A CORRIDOR FROM THE NORTH CENTRAL VIRIGNIA PIEDMONT UP THROUGH

DC AND CENTRAL MARYLAND WITH THE INTIAL CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS.

THEN...THERE IS THE ACTIVITY TO THE WEST TO CONSIDER. THIS WILL

LEAD TO ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT

BEGINNING WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. A SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY BE

RENEWED LATE TONIGHT AS POTENT SHORTWAVE/COLD FRONT APPROACH FROM THE

WEST. HRRR/WRF ARW SUGGEST AN ORGANIZED LINE OF CONVECTION

OCCURRING WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN THREAT BUT PERHAPS AN

ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT AS WELL.

FRONT WILL MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE CWA ON THURSDAY.

SEVERE THREAT WILL DIMINISH BEHIND THE FRONT IN THE EARLY

AFTERNOON.

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