Ian Posted April 26, 2011 Share Posted April 26, 2011 Let's make this official and move it out of the general thread. Discuss... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted April 26, 2011 Author Share Posted April 26, 2011 It's clearly the best setup all season as is (at least near MBY) . June 4 came in early afternoon. Mod risk or bust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted April 26, 2011 Share Posted April 26, 2011 It's clearly the best setup all season as is (at least near MBY) . June 4 came in early afternoon. Mod risk or bust. - You said it yourself - this is more about tornado risk than long track derecho! And even though it's the best setup we have to still wonder about timing. Remember the old saying around here "it's always something" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted April 26, 2011 Share Posted April 26, 2011 Wednesday evening seems to have the souped up parameters so we'll see about Thur. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted April 26, 2011 Share Posted April 26, 2011 Looks like the 00z NAM may be about to show some good stuff. 00z Thursday frame has it pretty far back. Thursday 06z panel now showing no precip over us for the previous 6 hour period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted April 26, 2011 Author Share Posted April 26, 2011 - You said it yourself - this is more about tornado risk than long track derecho! And even though it's the best setup we have to still wonder about timing. Remember the old saying around here "it's always something" I'd like to see it slow a tad more at least. But, it's not so much about setup as it is about noon on being just enough time, especially if we start off warm which we should. Depends on sun, etc.. who knows at this range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted April 26, 2011 Share Posted April 26, 2011 I'd like to see it slow a tad more at least. But, it's not so much about setup as it is about noon on being just enough time, especially if we start off warm which we should. Depends on sun, etc.. who knows at this range. By tomorrow night we'll probably have an increasingly better picture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted April 26, 2011 Share Posted April 26, 2011 What do y'all think the timing of this will be on Thursday? I have a home repair thing scheduled for that day and it is weather dependant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThePhotoGuy Posted April 26, 2011 Share Posted April 26, 2011 .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... THERE WAS DISCONTINUITY BTWN THE MDLS LAST NGT ON WHETHER THE CD FNT WOULD COME THRU ON WED OR THU...BUT NOW THE SLOWER SOLN SEEMS TO BE THE CONSENSUS. BUT 1ST - WARMER/MOISTER-THAN-NRML AIR MASS RMNS OVER THE AREA WED WHICH MAY PROVIDE CAPES INXS OF 1000 WED EVE. THAT COMBINED W/ A JET STREAK ALONG THE APLCHNS MAY LEAD TO EVENING TSTM ACTVTY. ENTIRE CWA IS OUTLOOKED FOR CHC OF SVR - THE SREF DEPICTION OF AN ENHANCED CHC ALONG THE MTNS AT 00Z THU HEADING E OVRNGT IS IN LN W/ OUR THOUGHTS. OTHER CONCERN WED NGT WOULD BE THE PSBLTY OF HVY RAIN - AS I WROTE LAST NGT PWAT`S 2 STNDRD DEV ABV NRML AND GRND IS VERY SATURATED. STREAM/CREEK FLDG COULD BE A CONCERN. CLRG PSBL THU AFTN AFTR THE CD FNT CLRS THE AREA...BUT IT`S LOOKING LK AN UPR LOW WL CONT TO INFLUENCE THE AREA FRI GIVING AT LEAST THE NRN HALF OF THE CWA PC/MC SKIES...CLRG LATE IN THE DAY AND OVRNGT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN LOPRES OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND HIPRES BUILDING IN FROM THE MS RVR VLY WILL PROVIDE BREEZY CONDITIONS FRI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CranberryWX Posted April 26, 2011 Share Posted April 26, 2011 Wednesday evening seems to have the souped up parameters so we'll see about Thur. I think the western part of our region will see the most active weather Wednesday evening...timing may be perfect for max heating for mby. Slight risk this afternoon too. A lot of moisture available today for any kind of trigger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted April 26, 2011 Share Posted April 26, 2011 What do y'all think the timing of this will be on Thursday? I have a home repair thing scheduled for that day and it is weather dependant. Will be fun working Thursday, ground stops and delays, flight cancellations, YAY me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted April 26, 2011 Share Posted April 26, 2011 Will be fun working Thursday, ground stops and delays, flight cancellations, YAY me Yeah...if we get severe. I still am not convinced that it will be all that bad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted April 26, 2011 Share Posted April 26, 2011 12z NAM continues being pretty slow compared to the GFS. It actually looks pretty decent. We'll see who caves (GFS or NAM) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted April 26, 2011 Share Posted April 26, 2011 12z GFS rolling we'll see what it does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted April 26, 2011 Share Posted April 26, 2011 The GFS has slowed a bit (compare the 12z 54 hour panel with the 06z 60 hour panel). Looks to be a decent amount too. We'll see what ends up being right but perhaps this could be a nod to the slower NAM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted April 26, 2011 Author Share Posted April 26, 2011 tomorrow's mod risk was expanded way north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted April 26, 2011 Share Posted April 26, 2011 tomorrow's mod risk was expanded way north Yeah I posted in the other thread. With that size of moderate I wouldn't be surprised to see a high again tomorrow on subsequent day 1 outlooks. Also, this could be a good sign for us correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted April 26, 2011 Share Posted April 26, 2011 Ian, thoughts on the 12z suite? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted April 26, 2011 Author Share Posted April 26, 2011 Yeah I posted in the other thread. With that size of moderate I wouldn't be surprised to see a high again tomorrow on subsequent day 1 outlooks. Also, this could be a good sign for us correct? I'm not sure it changes much other than SPC jumping aboard further north--which would translate east in some fashion on Thurs. Timing still an issue, but NAM would indicate a decent torn risk from E NC up to Eastern PA. NE MD/E PA might be hotspot for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted April 26, 2011 Author Share Posted April 26, 2011 Ian, thoughts on the 12z suite? usually these little vorts ahead of the main deal are what'll pop up some solid supercells. had a similar signature in NC for the outbreak there. slow it a few hours and it's a big deal, could be either way. http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/12/images/nam_500_054m.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted April 26, 2011 Share Posted April 26, 2011 It's also interesting that the front slows down somewhat as it approaches the coast. I agree that places east of DC will do better because of UL forcing and timing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted April 26, 2011 Share Posted April 26, 2011 I'm not sure it changes much other than SPC jumping aboard further north--which would translate east in some fashion on Thurs. Timing still an issue, but NAM would indicate a decent torn risk from E NC up to Eastern PA. NE MD/E PA might be hotspot for now. No arguments there I just hope we can get a decent day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted April 26, 2011 Share Posted April 26, 2011 usually these little vorts ahead of the main deal are what'll pop up some solid supercells. had a similar signature in NC for the outbreak there. slow it a few hours and it's a big deal, could be either way. http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/12/images/nam_500_054m.gif I'd like to see SPC get a bit more bullish. Their day 3 outlook issued today was kind of lacking. Even so, I'm impressed with the setup - certainly a dynamic storms system...timing will mean a lot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted April 26, 2011 Share Posted April 26, 2011 Another MD issued for western va and wv... watch by 19z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LMolineuxLM1 Posted April 26, 2011 Share Posted April 26, 2011 I'm not sure it changes much other than SPC jumping aboard further north--which would translate east in some fashion on Thurs. Timing still an issue, but NAM would indicate a decent torn risk from E NC up to Eastern PA. NE MD/E PA might be hotspot for now. Chase chance woohooo. Bring it on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CranberryWX Posted April 26, 2011 Share Posted April 26, 2011 Severe Thunderstorm Watch for almost the whole state of WV until 9PM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted April 26, 2011 Share Posted April 26, 2011 afternoon afd discusses potential for damaging winds and qlcs torndoes wed night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted April 26, 2011 Share Posted April 26, 2011 afternoon afd discusses potential for damaging winds and qlcs torndoes wed night GFS already trended a bit toward the NAM so I'd even lean more toward the morning hours than the overnight house at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CranberryWX Posted April 26, 2011 Share Posted April 26, 2011 Several near misses today have cooled things down and taken some of the juicy energy with it. Now just a basic line of showers is coming through. Best chance of severe seems to have shifted east towards the mountains. The watches always seem to be the kiss of death lately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted April 26, 2011 Share Posted April 26, 2011 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING VAC003-047-079-113-137-540-262315- /O.NEW.KLWX.SV.W.0060.110426T2236Z-110426T2315Z/ BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 636 PM EDT TUE APR 26 2011 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STERLING VIRGINIA HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... CITY OF CHARLOTTESVILLE IN CENTRAL VIRGINIA... ORANGE COUNTY IN CENTRAL VIRGINIA... GREENE COUNTY IN CENTRAL VIRGINIA... MADISON COUNTY IN NORTHWEST VIRGINIA... CULPEPER COUNTY IN NORTHERN VIRGINIA... ALBEMARLE COUNTY IN CENTRAL VIRGINIA... * UNTIL 715 PM EDT * AT 634 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 31 MILES SOUTHWEST OF ORANGE...OR 17 MILES NORTHWEST OF PALMYRA...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH. * LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... ORANGE... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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