weathafella Posted June 19, 2011 Share Posted June 19, 2011 Some of the latest dynamical models have trended a little more toward a weak Nina this fall/winter. Those are to be taken with a grain of salt this far out, but sometimes they can catch onto a trend. We'll have to see how it looks a month from now. SSTAs in the ENSO regions appear to be cooling pretty fast now. I'll be surprised if we're not a Nina. Agree that weak is most likely. If we can maintain NAO, my initial thorughts will be way off base but for now I don't see enough to make me think that we're going to have anything other than a fairly weak winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted June 19, 2011 Share Posted June 19, 2011 SSTAs in the ENSO regions appear to be cooling pretty fast now. I'll be surprised if we're not a Nina. Agree that weak is most likely. If we can maintain NAO, my initial thorughts will be way off base but for now I don't see enough to make me think that we're going to have anything other than a fairly weak winter. El neutral weak,GOA, cold QBO, solar minimum, back to negative pattern on NAO Ao, what else would you like, oh yea and the Atlantic Tripole looks great too, if T'S season also features a good number of recurving TS, lock itup. Some say voodoo I say bullish it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted June 19, 2011 Share Posted June 19, 2011 Whith that said....08-09 was NOT a great year. Esp. compared to 09-10 or 10-11 which were fantastic bordering on absurd. My perspective is perhaps tainted from the ’00-’01 season, but I wouldn’t put any of the five seasons since we’ve been back in Northern Vermont (’06-’07 through ’10-’11) at much more than average to good. I’m certainly surprised that you were big on ’09-’10, which in my opinion was the worst of the bunch. Snowfall doesn’t count for everything in terms of the quality of the ski season of course, but it is a huge part of it and certainly sets the upper limit on fresh powder. The ’09-’10 season was well below average both up on the mountain at Bolton (-18.6%) and down at our house in the valley (-25.8%). I can recall skiing many an icy, non-NVTesqe day at Stowe on piste in ’09-’10 due to the dearth of snowfall. The other four ski seasons during the past five have been decent, but all essentially about average for snowfall; I’ve added a table with Bolton’s snowfall numbers below since I had those for the past five seasons, but it represents the general trend for the Northern Vermont resorts: From the table it’s evident that aside from ’09-’10, the ski seasons have essentially been well inside the average range (±10% of average) for snowfall. I was thinking it would be “appropriate” to get a big winter in here at some point, say maybe 120%, to make up for the way ’09-’10 was ~20% low, but with ’07-’08 and ’10-’11 in there at +5.8%, the numbers for the past five seasons actually come out darn close to average at -1.6%. Ultimately there’s not too much to complain about since even an average snowfall season up here (or perhaps even a below average season based on your ’09-’10 comment) is often good or even great in terms of the skiing, and these past several seasons have been a lot of fun. But, to see the way things went in much of the Western U.S. this season (check Tony Crocker’s ’10-’11 season analysis), I mean seriously… 170%+ of normal snowfall for Tahoe, 180%+ for Mammoth, ~150% for the Pacific Northwest, ~130% for the U.S. Northern Rockies, ~130% for Utah, 130-180% for much of Colorado… typically it tends to becomes harder to get huge deviations from average snowfall the more consistently snowy a location is, so those numbers are pretty nuts. Essentially the entire Western U.S. was well above average for snowfall except for the southwest. Was ’00-’01 the last time we had a season like that around here? To think that even the barrage of storms we got in ’07-’08 (53 accumulating storms just down here in the valley) still led to basically average snowfall in the mountains makes me really curious to see what the numbers in a big winter would be like now that I closely monitor the snowfall. It's going to be lots of fun watching what '11-'12 brings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted June 19, 2011 Share Posted June 19, 2011 El neutral weak,GOA, cold QBO, solar minimum, back to negative pattern on NAO Ao, what else would you like, oh yea and the Atlantic Tripole looks great too, if T'S season also features a good number of recurving TS, lock itup. Some say voodoo I say bullish it. Like last year, NAO tells the tale. If it can be maintained neg, we will have quite a winter. But I don't see that happening AS OF RIGHT THIS MOMENT. Why? Nina's make NAO difficult as do PDO. I simply don't understand QBO well enough. True we're weak solar. Other than that, we're a pretty good match for 2001-02 which looked epic right up to the point it shat the bed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted June 19, 2011 Author Share Posted June 19, 2011 Like last year, NAO tells the tale. If it can be maintained neg, we will have quite a winter. But I don't see that happening AS OF RIGHT THIS MOMENT. Why? Nina's make NAO difficult as do PDO. I simply don't understand QBO well enough. True we're weak solar. Other than that, we're a pretty good match for 2001-02 which looked epic right up to the point it shat the bed. Weak Nina isn't terrible for NAO. Mod/strong Ninas have been more hostile though we overcame it last year anyway...we didn't in '07-'08 but still had a solid winter pike-northward. Some classic duds in mod/strong Ninas indeed did kill us with a +NAO like '98-'99 (actually not terrible BOS southeastward), '99-'00 (huge dead ratter for all of us), and '88-'89 (even bigger dead ratter, lol). For weak Nina, we've recently had (I'll include very borderline neutrals too that barely missed weak Nina status): '08-'09...slightly -NAO '05-'06...light to mod -NAO '00-'01...mod -NAO '95-'96...strong -NAO '85-'86...slightly+NAO '83-'84...mod +NAO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted June 19, 2011 Author Share Posted June 19, 2011 Expanding on the post above for this season, we are likely to have a -QBO. Those tend to "want" to create big snowfall gradients from N to S during cold ENSO phase...not all the time, but certainly very frequently. Boston has historically done fairly well in cold ENSO (including cold neutrals) and a solidly -QBO, and the interior of SNE (using ORH) has done maybe a bit better relative to climo....this list consists of: Winter............BOS snowfall.....ORH snowfall 2007-2008..........52.0".................70.1" 2000-2001..........45.9".................102.1" 1983-1984..........43.0".................76.6" 1974-1975..........27.6".................65.1" 1970-1971..........57.3".................80.0" 1967-1968..........44.8".................66.2" 1962-1963..........30.9".................75.7" 1960-1961..........61.5".................104.3" Mean..................45.4".................80.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 19, 2011 Share Posted June 19, 2011 Expanding on the post above for this season, we are likely to have a -QBO. Those tend to "want" to create big snowfall gradients from N to S during cold ENSO phase...not all the time, but certainly very frequently. Boston has historically done fairly well in cold ENSO (including cold neutrals) and a solidly -QBO, and the interior of SNE (using ORH) has done maybe a bit better relative to climo....this list consists of: Winter............BOS snowfall.....ORH snowfall 2007-2008..........52.0".................70.1" 2000-2001..........45.9".................102.1" 1983-1984..........43.0".................76.6" 1974-1975..........27.6".................65.1" 1970-1971..........57.3".................80.0" 1967-1968..........44.8".................66.2" 1962-1963..........30.9".................75.7" 1960-1961..........61.5".................104.3" Mean..................45.4".................80.0" I was just looking back at that....certainly the stats aren't bad at all. If we can muster up even a weak -NAO, that would be a heck of a ride. I would think that if we get the PV into western Canada..we'll once again have that benefit..even with a NAO that's not necessarily cooperating. I suppose the -QBO would at least allow a nice SSW to help facilitate a -NAO. Again, the QBO is something on our side this winter it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted June 19, 2011 Share Posted June 19, 2011 Eh, it's interesting to track and see what happens. Nothing worse then a hot and dry summer with little action like last year. LOL I want the best of both worlds-- give me a summer like 1944 or 1991 or 1999 with the building drama of heat and drought that gets busted by a big August or September hurricane! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted June 19, 2011 Share Posted June 19, 2011 Expanding on the post above for this season, we are likely to have a -QBO. Those tend to "want" to create big snowfall gradients from N to S during cold ENSO phase...not all the time, but certainly very frequently. Boston has historically done fairly well in cold ENSO (including cold neutrals) and a solidly -QBO, and the interior of SNE (using ORH) has done maybe a bit better relative to climo....this list consists of: Winter............BOS snowfall.....ORH snowfall 2007-2008..........52.0".................70.1" 2000-2001..........45.9".................102.1" 1983-1984..........43.0".................76.6" 1974-1975..........27.6".................65.1" 1970-1971..........57.3".................80.0" 1967-1968..........44.8".................66.2" 1962-1963..........30.9".................75.7" 1960-1961..........61.5".................104.3" Mean..................45.4".................80.0" I was just looking back at that....certainly the stats aren't bad at all. If we can muster up even a weak -NAO, that would be a heck of a ride. I would think that if we get the PV into western Canada..we'll once again have that benefit..even with a NAO that's not necessarily cooperating. I suppose the -QBO would at least allow a nice SSW to help facilitate a -NAO. Again, the QBO is something on our side this winter it seems. Based on what you guys are saying, looks like you both think we're in for a 2008-09 type winter. Which I wouldnt mind either, it had sustained cold and snowcover when its supposed to be the coldest and average to slightly above average snowfall here. The funny thing is, I've also seen 2008 tossed around as the primary analog for this summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 19, 2011 Share Posted June 19, 2011 Based on what you guys are saying, looks like you both think we're in for a 2008-09 type winter. Which I wouldnt mind either, it had sustained cold and snowcover when its supposed to be the coldest and average to slightly above average snowfall here. The funny thing is, I've also seen 2008 tossed around as the primary analog for this summer. I think the QBO was going + that winter. I really don't know what will happen regarding the NAO which may dictate the winter...especially for you guys. I just wish winter wouldn't quit in February. I'm tired of that. If ENSO is more neutral, then I would think we'll also be at the mercy of MJO waves which can really screw around with the North American pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted June 19, 2011 Share Posted June 19, 2011 I think the QBO was going + that winter. I really don't know what will happen regarding the NAO which may dictate the winter...especially for you guys. I just wish winter wouldn't quit in February. I'm tired of that. If ENSO is more neutral, then I would think we'll also be at the mercy of MJO waves which can really screw around with the North American pattern. Yes, I really hate that March starts the mud season. It's weird how exactly opposite we are from the 1950s. In the 1950s we had mild winters but March was almost always the snowiest month! BTW I've seen it mentioned that the AMO and the active tropical Atlantic may also be responsible for our bout of snowy winters-- if you look back at the 70s and 80s right through the early 90s when winters for the most part sucked, the Atlantic was quiet. From 1995 on, when the Atlantic started getting busy, we also started seeing increases in snowfall and especially in big ticket HECS events (the winter version of hurricanes?) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 19, 2011 Share Posted June 19, 2011 Yes, I really hate that March starts the mud season. It's weird how exactly opposite we are from the 1950s. In the 1950s we had mild winters but March was almost always the snowiest month! BTW I've seen it mentioned that the AMO and the active tropical Atlantic may also be responsible for our bout of snowy winters-- if you look back at the 70s and 80s right through the early 90s when winters for the most part sucked, the Atlantic was quiet. From 1995 on, when the Atlantic started getting busy, we also started seeing increases in snowfall and especially in big ticket HECS events (the winter version of hurricanes?) The +AMO is theorized to help facilitate the development of a -NAO, so that may be a reason why. At least I believe there is some sort of a correlation anyways. Makes sense from a forcing standpoint with warmer than normal waters up near Greenland. However, that alone will not get the job done. Having waters 1-2C warmer than normal is not going to pop a ridge, but it may be one of a few factors. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted June 19, 2011 Share Posted June 19, 2011 looks warm-neutral during the summer and more true neutral toward the fall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted June 19, 2011 Author Share Posted June 19, 2011 looks warm-neutral during the summer and more true neutral toward the fall. CFS has been trending colder. It's actually done a better job than the ECMWF plumes in the past couple seasons at catching trends. But it doesn't mean that will be the case this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 20, 2011 Share Posted June 20, 2011 CFS has been trending colder. It's actually done a better job than the ECMWF plumes in the past couple seasons at catching trends. But it doesn't mean that will be the case this year. Heavy heavy warmth is what it showed yesterday for the three month period of JAN-FEB-MAR 2012 east of the Rockies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted June 20, 2011 Share Posted June 20, 2011 looks warm-neutral during the summer and more true neutral toward the fall. I'd sleep with Suslak to get that to trend to a weak warm ENSO event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 20, 2011 Share Posted June 20, 2011 That's a nice +NAO and western AK trough on the CFS. Hopefully it's wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 20, 2011 Share Posted June 20, 2011 Bad bad vibes on the upcoming winter from many different circles and personally..luckily it' s only June and plenty of time to change Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 20, 2011 Share Posted June 20, 2011 Bad bad vibes on the upcoming winter from many different circles and personally..luckily it' s only June and plenty of time to change Meh...I wouldn't worry about the CFS yet...though I think it was right about a cold January last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 20, 2011 Share Posted June 20, 2011 Meh...I wouldn't worry about the CFS yet...though I think it was right about a old January last year. Well I mean from some mets, analogs, pattern etc... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted June 20, 2011 Share Posted June 20, 2011 I'd sleep with Suslak to get that to trend to a weak warm ENSO event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted June 20, 2011 Share Posted June 20, 2011 That's a nice +NAO and western AK trough on the CFS. Hopefully it's wrong. Yup, looks like a +EPO that doesn't allow cold air to penetrate the Northern Plains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted June 20, 2011 Author Share Posted June 20, 2011 Well I mean from some mets, analogs, pattern etc... I don't really see any reason to be pessimistic at this point. This is not like '01-'02 if we go neutral. We should probably be rooting for a weak El Nino though since we have historically been hitting home runs during weak Ninos. But I think it will be a weak la Nina instead if I had to guess right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted June 20, 2011 Share Posted June 20, 2011 That's a nice +NAO and western AK trough on the CFS. Hopefully it's wrong. Bad bad vibes on the upcoming winter from many different circles and personally..luckily it' s only June and plenty of time to change Well I mean from some mets, analogs, pattern etc... Perfect , I believe it was around June last year Blizzy posted the exact same post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 20, 2011 Share Posted June 20, 2011 Perfect , I believe it was around June last year Blizzy posted the exact same post. I don't really see some sort of red flag or anything..at least at this stage. We're kind of in that "go with the flow" stage...waiting to see some late summer and early fall trends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted June 20, 2011 Share Posted June 20, 2011 Perfect , I believe it was around June last year Blizzy posted the exact same post. When do you put out your epic disco/analysis? Wasn't it last July that you laid it all out? I'm thinking a pretty average winter, no disaster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted June 20, 2011 Share Posted June 20, 2011 I don't really see some sort of red flag or anything..at least at this stage. We're kind of in that "go with the flow" stage...waiting to see some late summer and early fall trends. I am overly pumped, really like how this summer is evolving. I could see one of those winters were it's cold wintry from sea to shining sea with our side of the pole in the good stuff from late Dec until mid March. Seriously amped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted June 20, 2011 Share Posted June 20, 2011 When do you put out your epic disco/analysis? Wasn't it last July that you laid it all out? I'm thinking a pretty average winter, no disaster. Epic is last years news, coining a new term this year, expect you guys in CNE NNE to have one of those classic long lasting winters. We are in the zone Dave, like Gonzo, just in the zone, and until I see signs that we are out of it I will continue to pimp it. I was pumped for 10 but too much of a good thing, 11 was La Epic for me but I think 12 might be historic in it's length and overall wintry appeal, kiss early ending winter goodbye. You will need your skis! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 20, 2011 Share Posted June 20, 2011 The MJO appears to be positioning near Indian ocean or even eastern Africa. SOI is picking up again too. That may induce more easterly winds over the ENSO region and keep the warming in check...at least for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted June 20, 2011 Share Posted June 20, 2011 The MJO appears to be positioning near Indian ocean or even eastern Africa. SOI is picking up again too. That may induce more easterly winds over the ENSO region and keep the warming in check...at least for now. ENSO regions warmed slightly on NOAA's 6/20 SST anomaly map but we have solid trades coming: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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