Winter 2011-2012

ORH_wxman · October 21, 2011

I actually get 73.9" for -QBO/-ENSO years for ORH and 72.5" for the +QBO/-ENSO years HM listed.

-QBO/-ENSO

'56-'57: 65.6"

'62-'63: 75.7"

'70-'71: 80.0"

'74-'75: 65.1"

'89-'90: 53.1"

'96-'97: 87.5"

'00-'01: 102.1"

'05-'06: 66.2"

'07-'08: 70.1"

Mean: 73.9"

+QBO/-ENSO:

'55-'56: 84.9"

'61-'61: 83.0"

'64-'65: 62.8"

'66-'67: 94.2"

'71-'72: 99.3"

'75-'76: 62.3"

'85-'86: 39.0"

'99-'00: 30.1"

'08-'09: 76.9"

'10-'11: 92.6"

Mean: 72.5"

ORH_wxman · October 21, 2011

The data doesn't change the general theme that the gradients are more extreme in the -QBO/-ENSO years...I just figured I'd correct it since I had the data available.

skierinvermont · October 21, 2011

Do you have better data for that period? Because that's where the differences are coming from (1995-2005).

ORH_wxman · October 21, 2011

Do you have better data for that period? Because that's where the differences are coming from (1995-2005).

We had to reconstruct the F6 data...we actually tried to get it to NCDC, but red tape stopped it unfortunately. BOX has the reconstructed data though...hopefully they will eventually put it on their snowfall page where the incomplete years are...here's an example from the 2000-2001 season

OCT-00 FOR WORCESTER, MA (1011')                	LAT=42.3N LON= 71.9W 
				TEMPERATURE       				PRECIPITATION
     	ACTUAL   		NORMAL
   	HI   LO  AVG 	HI   LO  AVG   DEPT 	AMNT   SNOW SNCVR   HDD
1  	68   47   58 	64   46   55 	+3 	0.00	0.0	0  	7
2  	67   50   59 	63   45   54 	+5 	0.00	0.0	0  	6
3  	74   52   63 	63   45   54 	+9 	0.00	0.0	0  	2
4  	67   50   59 	63   45   54 	+5 	0.08	0.0	0  	6
5  	54   49   52 	62   44   53 	-1 	0.61	0.0	0 	13
6  	53   48   51 	62   44   53 	-2 	0.31	0.0	0 	14
7  	57   40   49 	62   44   53 	-4 	0.00	0.0	0 	16
8  	49   35   42 	61   43   52	-10 	0.00	0.0	0 	23
9  	44   33   39 	61   43   52	-13 	0.08  	T	0 	26
10  	43   32   38 	61   42   52	-14    	T	0.0	0 	27
11  	61   35   48 	60   42   51 	-3 	0.00	0.0	0 	17
12  	64   41   53 	60   42   51 	+2 	0.00	0.0	0 	12
13  	69   47   58 	60   41   51 	+7 	0.00	0.0	0  	7
14  	76   55   66 	59   41   50	+16 	0.00	0.0	0  	0
15  	71   51   61 	59   41   50	+11 	0.00	0.0	0  	4
16  	51   37   44 	58   41   49 	-5 	0.29	0.0	0 	21
17  	47   38   43 	58   40   49 	-6 	0.01	0.0	0 	22
18  	50   44   47 	58   40   49 	-2 	0.31	0.0	0 	18
19  	58   42   50 	57   40   48 	+2 	0.01	0.0	0 	15
20  	61   38   50 	57   39   48 	+2 	0.00	0.0	0 	15
21  	70   44   57 	57   39   48 	+9 	0.00	0.0	0  	8
22  	56   39   48 	56   39   48 	+0 	0.00	0.0	0 	17
23  	55   36   46 	56   38   47 	-1 	0.00	0.0	0 	19
24  	66   40   53 	56   38   47 	+6 	0.00	0.0	0 	12
25  	65   49   57 	55   38   47	+10 	0.00	0.0	0  	8
26  	70   50   60 	55   38   46	+14 	0.00	0.0	0  	5
27  	65   53   59 	54   37   46	+13 	0.00	0.0	0  	6
28  	59   30   45 	54   37   46 	-1 	0.00	0.0	0 	20
29  	34   28   31 	54   37   45	-14    	T  	T	0 	34
30  	39   29   34 	53   37   45	-11 	0.16	0.4	0 	31
31  	42   39   41 	53   36   45 	-4 	0.19	0.0	0 	24
    				TOTALS FOR ORH   
HIGHEST TEMPERATURE   76 		TOTAL PRECIP    	2.05
LOWEST TEMPERATURE	28 		TOTAL SNOWFALL   	0.4 (0.0 BOX)
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE 50.1 		NORMAL PRECIP   	4.67
DEPARTURE FROM NORM +0.5

NOV-00 FOR WORCESTER, MA (1011')                	LAT=42.3N LON= 71.9W 
				TEMPERATURE       				PRECIPITATION
     	ACTUAL   		NORMAL
   	HI   LO  AVG 	HI   LO  AVG   DEPT 	AMNT   SNOW SNCVR   HDD
1  	52   34   43 	53   36   44 	-1 	0.00	0.0	0 	22
2  	59   39   49 	52   36   44 	+5 	0.00	0.0	0 	16
3  	60   47   54 	52   36   44	+10 	0.00	0.0	0 	11
4  	63   48   56 	52   36   44	+12    	T	0.0	0  	9
5  	48   38   43 	51   35   43 	+0 	0.19	0.0	0 	22
6  	48   36   42 	51   35   43 	-1 	0.00	0.0	0 	23
7  	54   37   46 	50   35   43 	+3 	0.00	0.0	0 	19
8  	55   41   48 	50   34   42 	+6 	0.00	0.0	0 	17
9  	50   41   46 	50   34   42 	+4    	T	0.0	0 	19
10  	46   43   45 	49   34   42 	+3 	1.52	0.0	0 	20
11  	50   42   46 	49   34   41 	+5 	0.08	0.0	0 	19
12  	53   38   46 	48   33   41 	+5 	0.00	0.0	0 	19
13  	42   39   41 	48   33   41 	+0 	0.03	0.0	0 	24
14  	46   37   42 	48   33   40 	+2 	0.68	0.0	0 	23
15  	41   33   37 	47   32   40 	-3    	T	0.0	0 	28
16  	44   36   40 	47   32   40 	+0 	0.00	0.0	0 	25
17  	49   32   41 	47   32   39 	+2 	0.00	0.0	0 	24
18  	40   28   34 	46   31   39 	-5 	0.00	0.0	0 	31
19  	39   29   34 	46   31   38 	-4 	0.00	0.0	0 	31
20  	40   28   34 	45   31   38 	-4    	T  	T	0 	31
21  	36   25   31 	45   30   38 	-7 	0.00	0.0	0 	34
22  	30   22   26 	45   30   37	-11 	0.00	0.0	0 	39
23  	30   18   24 	44   30   37	-13    	T  	T	0 	41
24  	26   13   20 	44   29   37	-17    	T  	T	0 	45
25  	31   17   24 	43   29   36	-12 	0.00	0.0	0 	41
26  	42   27   35 	43   29   36 	-1 	0.89  	T	0 	30
27  	47   37   42 	43   28   35 	+7    	T	0.0	0 	23
28  	45   37   41 	42   28   35 	+6    	T	0.0	0 	24
29  	43   32   38 	42   27   35 	+3 	0.05  	T	0 	27
30  	35   31   33 	41   27   34 	-1 	0.17	0.5	0 	32
    				TOTALS FOR ORH   
HIGHEST TEMPERATURE   63 		TOTAL PRECIP    	3.61
LOWEST TEMPERATURE	13 		TOTAL SNOWFALL   	0.5   	
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE 39.2 		NORMAL PRECIP   	4.34
DEPARTURE FROM NORM -0.4 		
HEATING DEGREE DAYS  769
NORMAL DEGREE DAYS   764

DEC-00 FOR WORCESTER, MA (1011')                	LAT=42.3N LON= 71.9W 
				TEMPERATURE       				PRECIPITATION
     	ACTUAL   		NORMAL
   	HI   LO  AVG 	HI   LO  AVG   DEPT 	AMNT   SNOW SNCVR   HDD
1  	35   23   29 	41   27   34 	-5 	0.00	0.0	0 	36
2  	26   15   21 	41   26   33	-12 	0.00	0.0	0 	44
3  	33   13   23 	40   26   33	-10 	0.00	0.0	0 	42
4  	42   22   32 	40   25   33 	-1 	0.00	0.0	0 	33
5  	42   25   34 	39   25   32 	+2    	T  	T	0 	31
6  	25   16   21 	39   25   32	-11 	0.00	0.0	0 	44
7  	27   15   21 	39   24   32	-11 	0.00	0.0	0 	44
8  	17   14   16 	38   24   31	-15 	0.04	1.5	0 	49
9  	24	9   17 	38   24   31	-14    	T  	T	0 	48
10  	30   13   22 	38   23   31 	-9 	0.02	0.2	0 	43
11  	42   29   36 	37   23   30 	+6    	T  	T	0 	29
12  	49   18   34 	37   23   30 	+4 	0.10	0.0	0 	31
13  	27   11   19 	37   22   30	-11 	0.00	0.0	0 	46
14  	32   20   26 	36   22   29 	-3 	0.57	3.0	0 	39
15  	31   18   25 	36   22   29 	-4 	0.00	0.0	0 	40
16  	39   20   30 	36   21   29 	+1 	0.37  	T	0 	35
17  	60   32   46 	36   21   28	+18 	1.72  	T	0 	19
18  	33   23   28 	35   21   28 	+0    	T  	T	0 	37
19  	33   20   27 	35   20   28 	-1 	0.06	0.6	0 	38
20  	29   18   24 	35   20   27 	-3 	0.11	2.0	0 	41
21  	27   15   21 	35   20   27 	-6 	0.00	0.0	0 	44
22  	28   17   23 	34   20   27 	-4 	0.03	0.5	0 	42
23  	24   10   17 	34   19   27	-10 	0.00	0.0	0 	48
24  	28   14   21 	34   19   26 	-5 	0.00	0.0	0 	44
25  	20	4   12 	34   19   26	-14 	0.00	0.0	0 	53
26  	21	3   12 	33   19   26	-14 	0.00	0.0	0 	53
27  	28   16   22 	33   18   26 	-4    	T  	T	0 	43
28  	18   13   16 	33   18   26	-10    	T  	T	0 	49
29  	28   13   21 	33   18   25 	-4 	0.00	0.0	0 	44
30  	27   18   23 	33   18   25 	-2 	0.44	7.4	0 	42
31  	26   19   23 	33   18   25 	-2 	0.16	2.6	0 	42
    				TOTALS FOR ORH   
HIGHEST TEMPERATURE   60 		TOTAL PRECIP    	3.62
LOWEST TEMPERATURE 	3 		TOTAL SNOWFALL  	17.8
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE 23.7 		NORMAL PRECIP   	3.80
DEPARTURE FROM NORM -5.2 		
HEATING DEGREE DAYS 1273
NORMAL DEGREE DAYS  1119

JAN-01 FOR WORCESTER, MA (1011')                	LAT=42.3N LON= 71.9W 
				TEMPERATURE       				PRECIPITATION
     	ACTUAL   		NORMAL
   	HI   LO  AVG 	HI   LO  AVG   DEPT 	AMNT   SNOW SNCVR   HDD
1  	26   15   21 	33   17   25 	-4 	0.00	0.0	0 	44
2  	24   11   18 	32   17   25 	-7 	0.00	0.0	0 	47
3  	27   10   19 	32   17   25 	-6 	0.00	0.0	0 	46
4  	28   16   22 	32   17   24 	-2 	0.00	0.0	0 	43
5  	28   14   21 	32   17   24 	-3 	0.14	2.4	0 	44
6  	34   25   30 	32   17   24 	+6 	0.09	1.6	0 	35
7  	33   19   26 	32   16   24 	+2 	0.00	0.0	0 	39
8  	34   23   29 	32   16   24 	+5 	0.09	1.4	0 	36
9  	30   16   23 	32   16   24 	-1 	0.02	1.4	0 	42
10  	21	7   14 	31   16   24	-10    	T  	T	0 	51
11  	35   11   23 	31   16   24 	-1 	0.00	0.0	0 	42
12  	29   14   22 	31   16   24 	-2 	0.00	0.0	0 	43
13  	31   12   22 	31   16   24 	-2 	0.00	0.0	0 	43
14  	38   25   32 	31   16   23 	+9 	0.00	0.0	0 	33
15  	34   22   28 	31   16   23 	+5 	0.18	2.8	0 	37
16  	37   23   30 	31   16   23 	+7 	0.01  	T	0 	35
17  	36   21   29 	31   15   23 	+6 	0.00	0.0	0 	36
18  	27   16   22 	31   15   23 	-1 	0.00	0.0	0 	43
19  	34   26   30 	31   15   23 	+7 	0.34	2.0	0 	35
20  	32   19   26 	31   15   23 	+3 	0.04	1.0	0 	39
21  	32   15   24 	31   15   23 	+1 	0.13	5.5	0 	41
22  	29   11   20 	31   15   23 	-3 	0.00	0.0	0 	45
23  	31   13   22 	31   15   23 	-1 	0.00	0.0	0 	43
24  	35   21   28 	31   15   23 	+5 	0.00	0.0	0 	37
25  	35   21   28 	31   15   23 	+5    	T  	T	0 	37
26  	30   14   22 	31   15   23 	-1 	0.00	0.0	0 	43
27  	31   24   28 	31   15   23 	+5    	T  	T	0 	37
28  	31   18   25 	31   15   23 	+2 	0.00	0.0	0 	40
29  	30   14   22 	31   16   24 	-2 	0.00	0.0	0 	43
30  	40   24   32 	32   16   24 	+8 	0.54  	T	0 	33
31  	44   33   39 	32   16   24	+15 	0.06	0.0	0 	26
    				TOTALS FOR ORH   
HIGHEST TEMPERATURE   44 		TOTAL PRECIP    	1.64
LOWEST TEMPERATURE 	7 		TOTAL SNOWFALL  	18.1
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE 24.8 		NORMAL PRECIP   	4.07
DEPARTURE FROM NORM +1.2    	
HEATING DEGREE DAYS 1238
NORMAL DEGREE DAYS  1284

FEB-01 FOR WORCESTER, MA (1011')                	LAT=42.3N LON= 71.9W 
				TEMPERATURE       				PRECIPITATION
     	ACTUAL   		NORMAL
   	HI   LO  AVG 	HI   LO  AVG   DEPT 	AMNT   SNOW SNCVR   HDD
1  	40   27   34 	32   16   24	+10 	0.00	0.0	0 	31
2  	34   23   29 	32   16   24 	+5 	0.05	0.8	0 	36
3  	26   14   20 	32   16   24 	-4    	T  	T	0 	45
4  	27   11   19 	32   16   24 	-5 	0.00	0.0	0 	46
5  	29   22   26 	32   16   24 	+2 	0.64   13.0	0 	39
6  	37   27   32 	32   16   24 	+8 	0.12	5.5	0 	33
7  	35   26   31 	32   16   24 	+7 	0.00	0.0	0 	34
8  	33   20   27 	33   16   25 	+2 	0.11	1.1	0 	38
9  	45   28   37 	33   17   25	+12 	0.19  	T	0 	28
10  	48   17   33 	33   17   25 	+8 	0.02	0.0	0 	32
11  	19	8   14 	33   17   25	-11 	0.00	0.0	0 	51
12  	27	3   15 	33   17   25	-10 	0.00	0.0	0 	50
13  	41   21   31 	34   17   25 	+6 	0.01  	T	0 	34
14  	39   26   33 	34   17   26 	+7 	0.43  	T	0 	32
15  	39   26   33 	34   18   26 	+7 	0.00	0.0	0 	32
16  	34   21   28 	34   18   26 	+2 	0.25	2.5	0 	37
17  	32   11   22 	34   18   26 	-4    	T  	T	0 	43
18  	24	7   16 	35   18   27	-11 	0.00	0.0	0 	49
19  	32   13   23 	35   18   27 	-4 	0.00	0.0	0 	42
20  	48   31   40 	35   19   27	+13 	0.00	0.0	0 	25
21  	41   11   26 	35   19   27 	-1 	0.00	0.0	0 	39
22  	19	3   11 	36   19   27	-16 	0.03	0.9	0 	54
23  	31   14   23 	36   19   28 	-5 	0.05	1.8	0 	42
24  	28   15   22 	36   20   28 	-6 	0.00	0.0	0 	43
25  	40   19   30 	37   20   28 	+2 	0.50	3.3	0 	35
26  	40   27   34 	37   20   29 	+5 	0.00	0.0	0 	31
27  	37   23   30 	37   21   29 	+1    	T  	T	0 	35
28  	25   15   20 	37   21   29 	-9 	0.00	0.0	0 	45
    				TOTALS FOR ORH   
HIGHEST TEMPERATURE   48 		TOTAL PRECIP    	3.06
LOWEST TEMPERATURE 	3 		TOTAL SNOWFALL  	28.9
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE 26.1 		NORMAL PRECIP   	3.10
DEPARTURE FROM NORM +0.1 		
HEATING DEGREE DAYS 1081
NORMAL DEGREE DAYS  1094

MAR-01 FOR WORCESTER, MA (1011')                	LAT=42.3N LON= 71.9W 
				TEMPERATURE       				PRECIPITATION
     	ACTUAL   		NORMAL
   	HI   LO  AVG 	HI   LO  AVG   DEPT 	AMNT   SNOW SNCVR   HDD
1  	25   13   19 	38   21   29	-10    	T	0.1	0 	46
2  	23   14   19 	38   21   30	-11 	0.02	0.5	0 	46
3  	29   19   24 	38   22   30 	-6 	0.04	0.6	0 	41
4  	26   17   22 	39   22   30 	-8    	T  	T	0 	43
5  	29   21   25 	39   22   31 	-6 	1.00   10.0	0 	40
6  	29   26   28 	39   23   31 	-3 	0.17   12.0	0 	37
7  	31   23   27 	40   23   31 	-4 	0.01  	T	0 	38
8  	35   21   28 	40   23   32 	-4 	0.00	0.0	0 	37
9  	35   24   30 	41   23   32 	-2 	0.26	3.5	0 	35
10  	38   26   32 	41   24   32 	+0 	0.03	3.0	0 	33
11  	41   24   33 	41   24   33 	+0    	T  	T	0 	32
12  	39   20   30 	42   24   33 	-3    	T  	T	0 	35
13  	33   28   31 	42   25   33 	-2 	0.70  	T	0 	34
14  	38   29   34 	42   25   34 	+0 	0.07  	T	0 	31
15  	45   31   38 	43   25   34 	+4 	0.00	0.0	0 	27
16  	46   32   39 	43   26   34 	+5 	0.00	0.0	0 	26
17  	46   30   38 	43   26   35 	+3    	T  	T	0 	27
18  	40   30   35 	44   26   35 	+0 	0.02  	T	0 	30
19  	45   29   37 	44   27   35 	+2 	0.00	0.0	0 	28
20  	49   33   41 	44   27   35 	+6 	0.00	0.0	0 	24
21  	42   32   37 	45   27   36 	+1 	0.54  	T	0 	28
22  	39   33   36 	45   27   36 	+0 	1.66	0.7	0 	29
23  	40   32   36 	45   28   37 	-1    	T  	T	0 	29
24  	42   30   36 	46   28   37 	-1    	T  	T	0 	29
25  	36   24   30 	46   28   37 	-7 	0.00	0.0	0 	35
26  	34   21   28 	47   29   38	-10 	0.21	2.8	0 	37
27  	32   16   24 	47   29   38	-14    	T  	T	0 	41
28  	38   23   31 	47   29   38 	-7 	0.00	0.0	0 	34
29  	43   28   36 	48   30   39 	-3 	0.01	0.1	0 	29
30  	33   31   32 	48   30   39 	-7 	1.78	3.0	0 	33
31  	37   30   34 	48   30   39 	-5 	0.01	0.1	0 	31
    				TOTALS FOR ORH   
HIGHEST TEMPERATURE   49 		TOTAL PRECIP    	6.53
LOWEST TEMPERATURE	13 		TOTAL SNOWFALL  	36.4 (0.0 BOX)
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE 31.1 		NORMAL PRECIP   	4.23
DEPARTURE FROM NORM -3.2    	
HEATING DEGREE DAYS 1045
NORMAL DEGREE DAYS   952

skierinvermont · October 21, 2011

ok I fixed the ORH data for the years that matter. BDL still might have some errors. And I might have errors in my ORH data but not for the -ENSO years that are being used.

ORH_wxman · October 21, 2011

ok I fixed the ORH data for the years that matter. BDL still might have some errors. And I might have errors in my ORH data but not for the -ENSO years that are being used.

BDL is a tough one because we never reconstructed them. Their 2000-2001 total though I think was around 62" even though its listed as 53" on the BOX site.

The full set of snowfall data in the error period for ORH is:

1995-1996: 132.9"

1996-1997: 87.5" (listed correctly on the BOX site)

1997-1998: 54.7"

1998-1999: 46.3"

1999-2000: 30.1"

2000-2001: 102.1"

2001-2002: 44.7"

2002-2003: 117.3"

2003-2004: 56.5"

'05-'06 had a minor error with a missing 0.5" total, so they were 66.2" instead of the listed 65.7", and '10-'11 is still missing 0.8" from 12/23 I think but it was corrected in the daily climate summary, however it still hasn't been corrected in the F6 data. There's also an error in the '73-'74 total, but that didn't factor into those years.

I'm not sure why NCDC preferred to keep seasonal totals like 0.1" (from hail in June no less) for the 1999-2000 season. It doesn't make any sense since they obviously didn't get 0.1" for the season, but oh well.

You can loosely try and reconstruct BDL through the BOX site PNS archive that goes back to 1997, but it doesn't list every event, mostly only if the totals were over 2".

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/box/snow-info2.shtml

skierinvermont · October 21, 2011

Great, thank you. Which years should I black out for BDL? All of 95/96 through 03/04?

So far I blacked out 97/98, 98/99, 99/00 and 01/02 which were all clearly missing data.

ORH_wxman · October 21, 2011

Great, thank you. Which years should I black out for BDL? All of 95/96 through 03/04?

BDL's bad period was a bit shorter. I think only '97-'98 through '01-'02 are bad. '02-'03 could have minor errors too, but that total looks pretty reasonable so its probably not off by much if it has errors. Their '93-'94 total is wrong too, but not by a lot. I think they had something like 85" instead of 91.4"...Ryan (CT_Rain) has the exact correct figure.

Keep in mind too that when just looking at this page:

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/box/climate/bdlsnw.shtml

That '10-'11 is only updated through the end of January 2011 for all stations.

skierinvermont · October 21, 2011

BDL's bad period was a bit shorter. I think only '97-'98 through '01-'02 are bad. '02-'03 could have minor errors too, but that total looks pretty reasonable so its probably not off by much if it has errors. Their '93-'94 total is wrong too, but not by a lot. I think they had something like 85" instead of 91.4"...Ryan (CT_Rain) has the exact correct figure.

Keep in mind too that when just looking at this page:

http://www.erh.noaa....te/bdlsnw.shtml

That '10-'11 is only updated through the end of January 2011 for all stations.

Yep, I didn't use '10-'11 in any of the years cause lots of them weren't updated. Not sure if I should keep the 53.3 in 00-01 in BDL. It could be right given the 36 in PVD, 46 is BOS, and 102 in ORH. I guess that was a pretty tight gradient that winter.

ORH_wxman · October 21, 2011

Yep, I didn't use '10-'11 in any of the years cause lots of them weren't updated. Not sure if I should keep the 53.3 in 00-01 in BDL. It could be right given the 36 in PVD, 46 is BOS, and 102 in ORH. I guess that was a pretty tight gradient that winter.

The 53.3" in '00-'01 would be conservative. I don't think its that far off, but I'm pretty sure they cracked 60". We have a poster just west of them in Collinsville who I believe had more than 65"...he might have broken 70", but hopefully he could chime in if he sees this. But the jackpot relative to average that winter was definitely in the interior hills. Zucker's new stomping grounds had something like 130" that winter.

The problem is there is no F6 data for BDL to go with BOX's monthly totals so its hard to find where they might have an error...it would have to be painfully recreated going through each event and looking at their archived METAR obs. The PNS archive helps some, but that only gets you the obvious larger storms.

Just looking at it quickly, they have BDL 8" for Dec 2000 which I know is wrong...because they got that just in the Dec 30, 2000 storm, and there were several other minor events that month in the 1-3" range. This is partly where the archived PNS data helps. Its like how ORH listed to have 15.8" for Feb 2001, but they got 18.5" just in the Feb 5-6 storm so its obvious the total is in error.

ORH_wxman · October 21, 2011

You can probably pretty safely put '99-'00 for roughly 25" at BDL...there was not a wide variance around the region that winter. At most they had maybe 28"...at least maybe 23". It would affect the average a lot if that year is taken out since it was such a low snow total year.

skierinvermont · October 21, 2011

Awesome! I just did Rangeley, and they average 158" in -QBO -ENSO winters and 117" in +QBO -ENSO winters. This is since 69-70 during which time they've averaged 120".

Sample size is getting smaller though because we lose 56/67 and 62/63 from the -QBO years and 55-'56 '61-'61 '64-'65 and '66-'67 from the +QBO years. I'm left with 7 -QBOs and 6 +QBOs.

I scratched 00-01 from BDL since you think they cracked 60.

ORH_wxman · October 21, 2011

Awesome! I just did Rangeley, and they average 158" in -QBO -ENSO winters and 117" in +QBO -ENSO winters. This is since 69-70 during which time they've averaged 118".

I scratched 00-01 from BDL since you think they cracked 60.

If you put 60" down for BDL in '00-'01 I do not think it will be that erroneous. If its off by like 2 or 3" it will only affect the average by a few tenths in a 8 or 9 year data set for -QBO/-ENSO winters. Actually even leaving in the 53" wouldn't be that huge of a deal. I'm not sure how much it affects it if you leave it out entirely...it was def above avg that year, but by how much remains a small question.

Leaving it out for ORH would be a bigger problem since they were so much above average that year. I believe both station's totals for '96-'97 are accurate.

skierinvermont · October 21, 2011

Adding in your estimates for 99-00 and 00-01 for BDL edges the -QBO over the +QBO for them. 54.1 neg QBO, 52.1 +QBO. Mostly because the 25" in 99-00 drags down the +QBO number.

ORH_wxman · October 21, 2011

Adding in your estimates for 99-00 and 00-01 for BDL edges the -QBO over the +QBO for them. 54.1 neg QBO, 52.1 +QBO. Mostly because the 25" in 99-00 drags down the +QBO number.

It makes sense that they should be close. The gradient really shows up the further north you go and the further south you go. A lot of the SNE stations don't have a big split between the two winters...but those southern stations definitely do...esp NYC southward. And then I think most NNE stations are def better off in -QBO.

It seems in the -QBO years, you compress those above avg snows southward toward SNE and the below avg snows northward toward them as well leaving them on a tighter gradient even if the exact averages for the SNE stations themselves aren't too different. PVD seems to suffer most out of the major stations here.

skierinvermont · October 21, 2011

The large QBO differential in Rangeley doesn't exist for BTV even when I look only at post '69 in BTV as well. Rangeley's differential is 40" while BTV's is just 9" over that period.

Could be -QBO winters benefit elevation especially. I'll have to repeat it for some other high elevation sites.

ORH_wxman · October 21, 2011

The large QBO differential in Rangeley doesn't exist for BTV even when I look only at post '69 in BTV as well. Rangeley's differential is 40" while BTV's is just 9" over that period.

Could be -QBO winters benefit elevation especially. I'll have to repeat it for some other high elevation sites.

I think BTV is far enough northwest where they might not feel the effects as much. I feel like the effects are more pronounced in NH/ME zones...'00-'01 was def elevation so that year probably helps, and may have hurt CON a bit relatively speaking.

A lot of the coops have some missing data which makes it hard to be accurate. Rangeley fortunately for you looks to have excellent data with hardly any days missing.

Ashburnham in N ORH county is at 1160 feet and has very good data...they are missing 26" I believe for Dec 2000, but otherwise most of it is there for the relevant years.

http://www.wrcc.dri.edu/cgi-bin/cliMAIN.pl?ma0190

ORH_wxman · October 21, 2011

207.7" in '70-'71 for Rangeley. :lmao:

'07-'08 wasn't too bad either with 178.9". That was at 1530 feet, if you are near 2000 feet you obviously would have done a bit better.

weatherwiz · October 21, 2011

1996-1997 came up for me but I tossed it...far, far away.

skierinvermont · October 21, 2011

I think BTV is far enough northwest where they might not feel the effects as much. I feel like the effects are more pronounced in NH/ME zones...'00-'01 was def elevation so that year probably helps, and may have hurt CON a bit relatively speaking.

A lot of the coops have some missing data which makes it hard to be accurate. Rangeley fortunately for you looks to have excellent data with hardly any days missing.

Ashburnham in N ORH county is at 1160 feet and has very good data...they are missing 26" I believe for Dec 2000, but otherwise most of it is there for the relevant years.

http://www.wrcc.dri....iMAIN.pl?ma0190

I did it for Mansfield and found a bit more of a differential than for BTV, but not much (40" out of 240). You may be right about the -QBO especially benefiting NH and ME.

Rangeley just seems to get absolutely crushed in -QBO -ENSO years. Most of their best winters are -QBO -ENSO. Of their 4 >170" winters, 3/4 were -QBO -ENSO. The one that wasn't is 95-96.

Paweatherguy1 · October 21, 2011

Hey guys, know it is far out, but you guys may want to look at day 8 of the 00z GFS...

At least it is something to track, and I like it, because when you can start tracking, even a fantasy storm, you know it's that time of year!

tamarack · October 21, 2011

I think BTV is far enough northwest where they might not feel the effects as much. I feel like the effects are more pronounced in NH/ME zones...'00-'01 was def elevation so that year probably helps, and may have hurt CON a bit relatively speaking.

Elevstion and latitude, as I got 137.1" at 385'. The Maine mts got only fringed by the 3/5-7 monster (3-7") but got 3-4 feet from the two storms 3/22-31. (I had 35" from those two.) Only the 3/22-24 storm plus the two in October were strongly elevational up our way that winter, IMO.

weathafella · November 12, 2011

Early indications suggest a 2001-02 esque winter imho. However we have to see how the rest of spring and summer plays out because that's a major factor.

I hope this wasn't prophetic.....

ski MRG · November 12, 2011

I hope this wasn't prophetic.....

Ullr doesn't like wafflers. I only need another 309" to meet the 340" you forecast. Liking my chances.

weathafella · November 12, 2011

Ullr doesn't like wafflers. I only need another 309" to meet the 340" you forecast. Liking my chances.

Not waffling. Just commenting on the spookiness of the thoughts on this winter. Huge winter on the way.......best in a long time!

Amped · November 12, 2011

Looking like a good winter for SEA to get more snow than BWI

Ottawa Blizzard · November 12, 2011

I hope this wasn't prophetic.....

lol it might well have been. Apparently the latest Euro weeklies point to mild weather through the first half of December.

Ottawa Blizzard · November 12, 2011

Not waffling. Just commenting on the spookiness of the thoughts on this winter. Huge winter on the way.......best in a long time!

have to admit though, there are some similarities. JB is apparently calling for cold to move in come late November. This reminds me of ten years ago when he called for a very cold winter (along with almost everyone else, to be fair) and kept predicting a pattern change which never materialized. I'm thinking this will be like 1974-75 up here in Ontario. Second year la Nina, similar big Alaskan storm in November...

weathafella · November 12, 2011

have to admit though, there are some similarities. JB is apparently calling for cold to move in come late November. This reminds me of ten years ago when he called for a very cold winter (along with almost everyone else, to be fair) and kept predicting a pattern change which never materialized. I'm thinking this will be like 1974-75 up here in Ontario. Second year la Nina, similar big Alaskan storm in November...

Huge difference however is NAO tendency and perhaps most importantly solar. That was near the peak of the big max before the slumber of the past 5-6 years.

HoarfrostHubb · November 19, 2011

I hope this wasn't prophetic.....

I just went out and fed the squirrels some McDonald's french fries and a box of Munchkins...

Whatever it takes.

I will also move my snowblower back into the shed, break all of my scrapers, and burn my shovels. If needed, I will pour a growler of NoHo beer into the snowblower to kill it.

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