ORH_wxman Posted October 19, 2011 Author Share Posted October 19, 2011 Anyone have some good examples of winter storms that resembled a hurricane-like evolution up the coast? I'm looking for a more discrete, maybe cut off low, around the southeast that moves north with the approach of an upper level trough. Jan 25, 2000 is the best example of what I'm looking for. Not sure if there are similar analogs out there. Thanks in advance! Feb 25, 1999 was like that even though it didn't climb the east coast the whole way...it backed in more or less. But it was because of an approaching trough. To a lesser extent, Jan 2, 1987. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted October 19, 2011 Share Posted October 19, 2011 Feb 25, 1999 was like that even though it didn't climb the east coast the whole way...it backed in more or less. But it was because of an approaching trough. To a lesser extent, Jan 2, 1987. Excellent! Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted October 19, 2011 Share Posted October 19, 2011 I can't wait for the hebby hebby Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted October 19, 2011 Share Posted October 19, 2011 Anyone have some good examples of winter storms that resembled a hurricane-like evolution up the coast? I'm looking for a more discrete, maybe cut off low, around the southeast that moves north with the approach of an upper level trough. Jan 25, 2000 is the best example of what I'm looking for. Not sure if there are similar analogs out there. Thanks in advance! You mean a Miller A. A storm that backs in off the ocean, a storm with a tight core, or a storm with an eye? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted October 19, 2011 Share Posted October 19, 2011 Was just looking at threads from 2/1 to 2/3 storm... man was that a bust.... I remember Noyes calling for an additional 18-24 for round two I think I saw like 8 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 19, 2011 Author Share Posted October 19, 2011 Was just looking at threads from 2/1 to 2/3 storm... man was that a bust.... I remember Noyes calling for an additional 18-24 for round two I think I saw like 8 inches. I think Scott and I called that one decent...to make up for my other busts that inevitably happen. The QPF amounts were way overdone for a SW flow event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted October 19, 2011 Share Posted October 19, 2011 I think Scott and I called that one decent...to make up for my other busts that inevitably happen. The QPF amounts were way overdone for a SW flow event. I think I got 6.5" and 4.5" for the 2 events ....the news was hyping it as 3-6" for the first and 8-12+ for the second. A lot of the second event was sleet, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 19, 2011 Author Share Posted October 19, 2011 I think I got 6.5" and 4.5" for the 2 events ....the news was hyping it as 3-6" for the first and 8-12+ for the second. A lot of the second event was sleet, too. Part 1 overperformed in SNE to the point where it actually ended up giving some of the more impressive totals down here...like a foot of snow total when added up. Some places in NH and ME that were progged to get 20" got less than 10"...some places up there were able to break a foot too, but they weren't widespread. That part one event on Feb 1 over SNE was actually the most impressive part. Originally supposed to be a 1-3"/2-4" event turned into a warning criteria event before part 2 even happened. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 19, 2011 Share Posted October 19, 2011 Part 1 overperformed in SNE to the point where it actually ended up giving some of the more impressive totals down here...like a foot of snow total when added up. Some places in NH and ME that were progged to get 20" got less than 10"...some places up there were able to break a foot too, but they weren't widespread. That part one event on Feb 1 over SNE was actually the most impressive part. Originally supposed to be a 1-3"/2-4" event turned into a warning criteria event before part 2 even happened. Got 3.5" and 10.0" in that event.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted October 19, 2011 Share Posted October 19, 2011 Got 3.5" and 10.0" in that event.. 2.0" and 8.9" IMBY, and only the 4/1 event gave me more than #2 last winter. The major impact of #2 came well to our west, like OK to IN, and it was indeed major. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 19, 2011 Share Posted October 19, 2011 Why was December of 1996 such a torch? There is a pretty solid -NAO/-AO in place but those positive height anomalies are extending so far south, what's causing that? Is it b/c of the pretty solid -PNA? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 19, 2011 Author Share Posted October 19, 2011 Yeah its wasn't an ideal block for the type of pacific setup. We'd want that block further NW and then we probably would have actually had a cold month. We'd probably actually prefer a southwest based +NAO in that setup like we saw in 2007. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 19, 2011 Share Posted October 19, 2011 Yeah its wasn't an ideal block for the type of pacific setup. We'd want that block further NW and then we probably would have actually had a cold month. We'd probably actually prefer a southwest based +NAO in that setup like we saw in 2007. what the heck caused the block to setup like that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 20, 2011 Share Posted October 20, 2011 Well I finally have my winter thoughts done, which virtually mean absolutely nothing but long-range forecasting is incredibly fascinating and extremely challenging so hopefully with all this practice and trial and error process I can better myself someday. Should get them type up within the next few days sometime. Today is my youngest brother's 21st birthday so may not happen today and Friday the Whale are home and I'll begin my pre-game hockey festivities around 2:00-3:00 PM so probably Saturday morning I can do it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted October 20, 2011 Share Posted October 20, 2011 one thing working in the favor of a further south gradient is that the PAC warm pool extends pretty far to the north. thus, the ridge there should have a high enough amplitude to keep the flow from flattening and screwing places south of ~42n oct 07 vs oct 11. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 20, 2011 Share Posted October 20, 2011 Yeah Forky, that would at least help our cause. Although heat flux from SST's in the NPAC imo, isn't a big part of the pattern...every little bit helps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted October 20, 2011 Share Posted October 20, 2011 Yeah Forky, that would at least help our cause. Although heat flux from SST's in the NPAC imo, isn't a big part of the pattern...every little bit helps. Couldn't you argue that the weaker nina would help it even out though between 07 and 2011? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted October 20, 2011 Share Posted October 20, 2011 one thing working in the favor of a further south gradient is that the PAC warm pool extends pretty far to the north. thus, the ridge there should have a high enough amplitude to keep the flow from flattening and screwing places south of ~42n oct 07 vs oct 11. Wow, Hudson Bay is just torching. I wonder if that will have any effect on our winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted October 20, 2011 Share Posted October 20, 2011 Wow, Hudson Bay is just torching. I wonder if that will have any effect on our winter. Its pretty amazing how similar 07 and 11 are right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted October 20, 2011 Share Posted October 20, 2011 Its pretty amazing how similar 07 and 11 are right now Yeah, bad news for my neck of the woods I guess. Although Im not sure what the QBO was in 07-08. Looking at last October, the Nina was much more well-defined. There were no + anomalies showing up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 20, 2011 Author Share Posted October 20, 2011 Yeah, bad news for my neck of the woods I guess. Although Im not sure what the QBO was in 07-08. Looking at last October, the Nina was much more well-defined. There were no + anomalies showing up. The QBO was more negative in '07 and the Nina was a bit stronger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted October 20, 2011 Share Posted October 20, 2011 I'll tell you what, this October also looks a bit like the dreaded 1999 lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted October 20, 2011 Share Posted October 20, 2011 The QBO was more negative in '07 and the Nina was a bit stronger. Would you say a more positive QBO tends to tighten or relax the north-south gradient of snowfall? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted October 20, 2011 Share Posted October 20, 2011 I'll tell you what, this October also looks a bit like the dreaded 1999 lol. How dare you... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 20, 2011 Author Share Posted October 20, 2011 Would you say a more positive QBO tends to tighten or relax the north-south gradient of snowfall? It seems to relax it based on past winters. -QBO/Nina years all seem to have large gradients. We are technically negative QBO this year too but its not nearly as negative as 2007. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted October 20, 2011 Share Posted October 20, 2011 It seems to relax it based on past winters. -QBO/Nina years all seem to have large gradients. We are technically negative QBO this year too but its not nearly as negative as 2007. Okay thanks Will. I'm guessing the QBO/ENSO correlation isn't that well-understood given the small sample size. Isn't the QBO around neutral at this point? I think DT said that in his Winter Outlook. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted October 20, 2011 Share Posted October 20, 2011 How dare you... I mean it's not that close but there's a bit of a resemblance. I'm not even sure it matters much since meteorological winter is still like 6 weeks away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted October 20, 2011 Share Posted October 20, 2011 I mean it's not that close but there's a bit of a resemblance. I'm not even sure it matters much since meteorological winter is still like 6 weeks away. There's really no need to over analyze everything now... everyone is calling for a great winter in NE. Like last year, we'll see how everything plays out come late NOV into DEC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted October 21, 2011 Share Posted October 21, 2011 FYI in case folks aren't reading the main forum I did a little research on the QBO snowfall gradient: I don't know if anybody did this yet but here are the snowfall totals for the years HM denoted -ENSO/-QBO vs -ENSO/+QBO for various northeast cities. BTV, CON, PWM and ORH did better in -QBO years. BOS, BDL, PVD, NYC, PHL, BWI and DCA did better in +QBO years. You can clearly see the sharper latitudinal gradient in the -QBO years. If you link me to annual or monthly snowfall data for other locations I'll add them to my excel file and repost. BTV CON PWM BOS ORH BDL PVD NYC PHL BWI DCA Neg ENSO neg QBO 94.3 77.1 80.1 44.0 73.9 53.4 36.0 19.7 16.6 14.4 12.0 Neg ENSO pos QBO 87.4 71.5 78.8 46.6 70.3 55.5 39.9 28.7 23.5 20.7 14.8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 21, 2011 Author Share Posted October 21, 2011 FYI in case folks aren't reading the main forum I did a little research on the QBO snowfall gradient: ORH and BDL snowfall data will be contaminated if you used the totals in the 1995-2004 time range. Though I only think 1 year fell in that data set and it was 2000-2001. edit: looks like he had '96-'97 and '99-'00 in there too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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