gracetoyou Posted October 17, 2011 Share Posted October 17, 2011 What does the euro winter forecast show for the MW/GL? What does the Euro show for S. Illinios, W. Ky., SE Missouri areas? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 17, 2011 Author Share Posted October 17, 2011 I'd be fine with that. '07-'08 verbatim would be fine for where we are, but that is just an analog for the general pattern the Euro showed...its not exact. What if we get a '07-'08 with the gradient shoved 100 miles north? Then we end up with just about all of New England hanging themselves. It easily could be further north with the gradient on the Euro pattern. It could be slightly south too. Hard to decipher from the maps since its only temp departures and doesn't really give you any specifics on storm tracks which are impossible to forecast anyway at this juncture. Just the general theme I got from the maps was that there is a def SE ridge getting pumped up and that we are near a solid gradient. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 17, 2011 Share Posted October 17, 2011 '07-'08 verbatim would be fine for where we are, but that is just an analog for the general pattern the Euro showed...its not exact. What if we get a '07-'08 with the gradient shoved 100 miles north? Then we end up with just about all of New England hanging themselves. It easily could be further north with the gradient on the Euro pattern. It could be slightly south too. Hard to decipher from the maps since its only temp departures and doesn't really give you any specifics on storm tracks which are impossible to forecast anyway at this juncture. Just the general theme I got from the maps was that there is a def SE ridge getting pumped up and that we are near a solid gradient. I've thought of that, too. Of course its never going to be a complete repeat of a given winter. Snowfall was great in '07-'08 but it was even better north of here, less so south of here. If its all shoved further north and west, then we are all pretty much screwed and we might as well move onto next winter already, lol. I've always been happy with average, but so many of the past 10 years have been above average, that one of these years has got to bite. I hate thinking like that, but statistically it is bound to happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 17, 2011 Share Posted October 17, 2011 If -EPO's are usually associated with a colder US why does this map look like this? This is a plot of -EPO Decembers with a La Nina The EPO data was collected here: http://www.wxmidwest.com/epo/newepo.txt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 17, 2011 Author Share Posted October 17, 2011 I've thought of that, too. Of course its never going to be a complete repeat of a given winter. Snowfall was great in '07-'08 but it was even better north of here, less so south of here. If its all shoved further north and west, then we are all pretty much screwed and we might as well move onto next winter already, lol. I've always been happy with average, but so many of the past 10 years have been above average, that one of these years has got to bite. I hate thinking like that, but statistically it is bound to happen. While we are "due" for a clunker, I'm not sure I would pick this year for that...esp over CNE/NNE. Maybe the southern parts of SNE could be in trouble...hard to say. But a cold phase Nina is generally pretty good for most of New England. I'd probably pick some neutral or stronger Nino if I was going to be pessimistic, esp for NNE. The CFS is now going absolutely crazy with this Nina, putting way into the strong category, lol. I don't believe it at this point, but I'm starting to wonder if this gets stronger than we thought. The subsurface is really cold right now. The Euro SIPS still has a low end moderate Nina which hasn't changed too much from its September forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 17, 2011 Author Share Posted October 17, 2011 If -EPO's are usually associated with a colder US why does this map look like this? This is a plot of -EPO Decembers with a La Nina The EPO data was collected here: http://www.wxmidwest.../epo/newepo.txt Because he has the signs switched from the old EPO to the "new" definition. It has created a lot of confusion, I wish they just kept the sign the same. What you actually plotted were +EPO Decembers using the old classic definition of EPO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 17, 2011 Share Posted October 17, 2011 Because he has the signs switched from the old EPO to the "new" definition. It has created a lot of confusion, I wish they just kept the sign the same. What you actually plotted were +EPO Decembers. The confusion is driving me nuts. So virtually the signs should be opposite of what they are? December of 1995 the EPO says -0.30 so does that mean it should really be +0.30? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 17, 2011 Share Posted October 17, 2011 While we are "due" for a clunker, I'm not sure I would pick this year for that...esp over CNE/NNE. Maybe the southern parts of SNE could be in trouble...hard to say. But a cold phase Nina is generally pretty good for most of New England. I'd probably pick some neutral or stronger Nino if I was going to be pessimistic, esp for NNE. The CFS is now going absolutely crazy with this Nina, putting way into the strong category, lol. I don't believe it at this point, but I'm starting to wonder if this gets stronger than we thought. The subsurface is really cold right now. The Euro SIPS still has a low end moderate Nina which hasn't changed too much from its September forecast. I saw the CFS..lol. Ice cubes. I don't think I buy that either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 17, 2011 Author Share Posted October 17, 2011 The confusion is driving me nuts. So virtually the signs should be opposite of what they are? December of 1995 the EPO says -0.30 so does that mean it should really be +0.30? Yes. An easy way to tell is look at the coldest Decembers on record across the CONUS...like 1983, 1989, 2000, 2009....look at what the EPO sign is in those years. You'll see a huge positive number. Well that should be a huge negative number in the classic definition we all have comes to known. The "new" definition is so confusing switching the sign like that. I just keep the old definition and remember to switch the sign when looking at new data sets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 17, 2011 Share Posted October 17, 2011 Yes. An easy way to tell is look at the coldest Decembers on record across the CONUS...like 1983, 1989, 2000, 2009....look at what the EPO sign is in those years. You'll see a huge positive number. Well that should be a huge negative number in the classic definition we all have comes to known. The "new" definition is so confusing switching the sign like that. I just keep the old definition and remember to switch the sign when looking at new data sets. I'll remember to do this from now on. Not sure why they would switch signs with the new definition but this is good to know...thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 17, 2011 Share Posted October 17, 2011 Looking at Dec '67 and Dec '84 These are the only two December with a -EPO/La Nina combo which featured above-average temps across the eastern 1/3 of the US. In Dec '67 the NAO was negative as well...Was the PNA having a large impact on the pattern this month? The PNA was decently negative. In Dec of '84 I'm assuming it was the +NAO/-PNA combo which was influencing the pattern here. NAO (according to Hurrel was solidly positive...CPC has it barely negative) and the PNA was solidly negative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 17, 2011 Author Share Posted October 17, 2011 Looking at Dec '67 and Dec '84 These are the only two December with a -EPO/La Nina combo which featured above-average temps across the eastern 1/3 of the US. In Dec '67 the NAO was negative as well...Was the PNA having a large impact on the pattern this month? The PNA was decently negative. In Dec of '84 I'm assuming it was the +NAO/-PNA combo which was influencing the pattern here. NAO (according to Hurrel was solidly positive...CPC has it barely negative) and the PNA was solidly negative. Definite -PNA/+NAO pattern in Dec '84. The EPO wasn't all that negative anyway...just slightly negative on the map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 17, 2011 Share Posted October 17, 2011 How do you tell the difference between the PNA/EPO on the 500mb height maps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 17, 2011 Author Share Posted October 17, 2011 How do you tell the difference between the PNA/EPO on the 500mb height maps? Just look at the loading patterns of each index +PNA +EPO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 17, 2011 Share Posted October 17, 2011 Sweet...thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted October 17, 2011 Share Posted October 17, 2011 as usual, im hoping everyone gets their fair share of slammage this winter though i hope to have more action than the last 2 winters up here which have been dismal, but i knew id pay for 07-08 for a while, a long while lol.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted October 17, 2011 Share Posted October 17, 2011 Hmm...as I've been saying since September I was expecting the La Nina to slow down in terms of strengthening in early October followed by a more sharp cool down come Mid Month and things are turning out like I said. With a nice burst of Trade Winds coming in across the Western Nina regions we can expect some more strengthening combined with a more favorable MJO phase, currently in Phase 1 but will stay in Phases 1/2/3 till early November which should help the La Nina quite nicely and hopefully the OLR anomalies increase over the next few weeks as a result. The GWO is also in Phase 1 and the GLAAM is falling negative once again. IOD remains negative. A Moderate Nina is highly likely now IMO but the CFS is too extreme. Based on the climatology its possible next Winter maybe a Strong Nina or a Weak Nina. Thus far this current Nina event resembles the 70's Nina event nicely but we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 17, 2011 Share Posted October 17, 2011 When looking at solar flux data how would you break down the data into low activity; moderate activity; and high activity? What would be a good scale to use? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 18, 2011 Share Posted October 18, 2011 When looking at solar flux data how would you break down the data into low activity; moderate activity; and high activity? What would be a good scale to use? The Kevin Wood Scale Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 18, 2011 Share Posted October 18, 2011 as usual, im hoping everyone gets their fair share of slammage this winter though i hope to have more action than the last 2 winters up here which have been dismal, but i knew id pay for 07-08 for a while, a long while lol.... lol Ya Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 18, 2011 Share Posted October 18, 2011 lol Ya awakening from hibernation? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 18, 2011 Share Posted October 18, 2011 The Kevin Wood Scale Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted October 18, 2011 Share Posted October 18, 2011 My daily update ... I CAN'T WAIT FOR SNOW!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted October 18, 2011 Share Posted October 18, 2011 Everyone on american wx's daily update ... I CAN'T WAIT FOR SNOW!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted October 18, 2011 Share Posted October 18, 2011 My daily update ... I CAN'T WAIT FOR SNOW!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 18, 2011 Share Posted October 18, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted October 18, 2011 Share Posted October 18, 2011 Going to San Diego Dec 18-25.. book a noreaster then Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 18, 2011 Share Posted October 18, 2011 Going to San Diego Dec 18-25.. book a noreaster then Deformation band stalled over MHT for hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 18, 2011 Share Posted October 18, 2011 Deformation band stalled over MHT for hours. For 7 days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted October 19, 2011 Share Posted October 19, 2011 Anyone have some good examples of winter storms that resembled a hurricane-like evolution up the coast? I'm looking for a more discrete, maybe cut off low, around the southeast that moves north with the approach of an upper level trough. Jan 25, 2000 is the best example of what I'm looking for. Not sure if there are similar analogs out there. Thanks in advance! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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