CoastalWx Posted October 16, 2011 Share Posted October 16, 2011 Euro seasonal forecasts actually came in a bit warmer than the Sept forecast for DJF. While 850 temps are near 0.5 1degree C above normal, the pattern really shows a gradient with a mean se ridge. Last year they were trending cooler as we got closer to DJF. Hopefully we are on the right side of the gradient. Thet have the NPAC ridge which is a plus, but have a furnace se ridge that extends ene into the Atlantic and Great Britain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted October 16, 2011 Share Posted October 16, 2011 Euro seasonal forecasts actually came in a bit warmer than the Sept forecast for DJF. While 850 temps are near 0.5 1degree C above normal, the pattern really shows a gradient with a mean se ridge. Last year they were trending cooler as we got closer to DJF. Hopefully we are on the right side of the gradient. Thet have the NPAC ridge which is a plus, but have a furnace se ridge that extends ene into the Atlantic and Great Britain. o.5 for all of sne, or more down this way? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 16, 2011 Share Posted October 16, 2011 o.5 for all of sne, or more down this way? Closer to 1C near you...basically the further sw you get. I wouldn't take these to the bank at all. They were too warm last year too..but not a big fan of the trend. Who knows though...they could really switch around in November. Just posted this as an FYI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted October 16, 2011 Share Posted October 16, 2011 Closer to 1C near you...basically the further sw you get. I wouldn't take these to the bank at all. They were too warm last year too..but not a big fan of the trend. Who knows though...they could really switch around in November. Just posted this as an FYI. Thanks, I dont think there are many that would argue against a more robust se ridge, with perhaps the main trough hanging back west a bit, but that could mean SWFE heaven for 90% of sne, easy to forecast, thumpity thumps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 16, 2011 Share Posted October 16, 2011 Thanks, I dont think there are many that would argue against a more robust se ridge, with perhaps the main trough hanging back west a bit, but that could mean SWFE heaven for 90% of sne, easy to forecast, thumpity thumps. Verbatim that's what it could mean. I think the difference with these is a more neutral to slightly +NAO that's depicted, but again....I wouldn't take these verbatim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted October 16, 2011 Share Posted October 16, 2011 Verbatim that's what it could mean. I think the difference with these is a more neutral to slightly +NAO that's depicted, but again....I wouldn't take these verbatim. I agree, but I also think the upcoming winter is beginning to take shape, at least some of the players involved, I think we might be able to start eliminating some scenarios ie overbearing PV or a supression like winter.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted October 16, 2011 Share Posted October 16, 2011 I agree, but I also think the upcoming winter is beginning to take shape, at least some of the players involved, I think we might be able to start eliminating some scenarios ie overbearing PV or a supression like winter.... Ullr is going to exact a serious penalty on you for your continued impudence concerning the 'torch'. I'm not sure you'll see more than an occasional mangled flake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted October 16, 2011 Share Posted October 16, 2011 Ullr is going to exact a serious penalty on you for your continued impudence concerning the 'torch'. I'm not sure you'll see more than an occasional mangled flake. A swfe gradient winter would dump huge amounts of snow Peter, not sure what you mean, especially for you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted October 16, 2011 Share Posted October 16, 2011 A swfe gradient winter would dump huge amounts of snow Peter, not sure what you mean, especially for you. I'm not worried about me. I am quite certain I'll have crushing snowfall this Winter. It's you I fear for. I think your Winter forecast will be something like this. Tuesday: A brief period of snow mixing with and changing to rain. Temps steady in the low 30's rising into the low 40's by afternoon, It's not too late to repent. Renounce the love of the 'torch', save your Winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted October 16, 2011 Share Posted October 16, 2011 I agree, but I also think the upcoming winter is beginning to take shape, at least some of the players involved, I think we might be able to start eliminating some scenarios ie overbearing PV or a supression like winter.... Which players are you referring to? The high latitude blocking pattern that's setting up, or the mean trough in the SE? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted October 16, 2011 Share Posted October 16, 2011 I'm not worried about me. I am quite certain I'll have crushing snowfall this Winter. It's you I fear for. I think your Winter forecast will be something like this. Tuesday: A brief period of snow mixing with and changing to rain. Temps steady in the low 30's rising into the low 40's by afternoon, It's not too late to repent. Renounce the love of the 'torch', save your Winter. LOL, it very well could be, and its something none of us have any control over. In a perfect world for me, the winter would be 1-2 degrees above normal with 50 inches of snowfall. Good snows but also stretches of warmth, there is absolutely nothing worse than cold and no snow, its absolutely useless. Big winter for ski country coming up, late start but once it get s going should be huge! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted October 16, 2011 Share Posted October 16, 2011 LOL, it very well could be, and its something none of us have any control over. In a perfect world for me, the winter would be 1-2 degrees above normal with 50 inches of snowfall. Good snows but also stretches of warmth, there is absolutely nothing worse than cold and no snow, its absolutely useless. Big winter for ski country coming up, late start but once it get s going should be huge! for me this is just fine and the reason i was able to get out and ski around thanksgiving last year...plenty of man made snow. i do not mind very cold and no snow anymore b/c i know the snow guns are going. i have no use for mild and dry or mild and wet in the winter. gimme cold ....then gimme snow..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 16, 2011 Author Share Posted October 16, 2011 Euro winter forecast will make many in the east unhappy....hopefully its wrong. It looks an awful lot like '07-'08. We'd be on a big gradient here probably. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 16, 2011 Share Posted October 16, 2011 Euro winter forecast will make many in the east unhappy....hopefully its wrong. It looks an awful lot like '07-'08. We'd be on a big gradient here probably. It was horrible last Oct Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 16, 2011 Author Share Posted October 16, 2011 It was horrible last Oct Yes it wasn't that accurate, but it had been trending colder as we got closer. This year its trending warmer. Not sure if that really means anything...but just throwing it out there FWIW. It had a +NAO in the composite which is probably one of the reasons it really pumps the SE ridge in its composite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 16, 2011 Share Posted October 16, 2011 Yes it wasn't that accurate, but it had been trending colder as we got closer. This year its trending warmer. Not sure if that really means anything...but just throwing it out there FWIW. It had a +NAO in the composite which is probably one of the reasons it really pumps the SE ridge in its composite. I think that's the part that I'm unsure of. I'm not so sure it stays that +, but who knows at this stage of the game. I suppose if I were a betting man....I would bank on a little more ridging up by Greenland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 16, 2011 Author Share Posted October 16, 2011 I think that's the part that I'm unsure of. I'm not so sure it stays that +, but who knows at this stage of the game. I suppose if I were a betting man....I would bank on a little more ridging up by Greenland. Certainly the recent winters would seem to argue for a more -NAO, but even during predominately negative periods, you can have +NAO winters. So we'll have to see if this is one of those winters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted October 16, 2011 Share Posted October 16, 2011 Euro winter forecast will make many in the east unhappy....hopefully its wrong. It looks an awful lot like '07-'08. We'd be on a big gradient here probably. There are a few of us who would not be in the group known as unhappy if that verified...although I like it when everyone does well. Though Kevin thinks he is a clown, LC is honking a bit about a pattern evolution that teleconnects to a vortex in the Great Lakes. during the heart of winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 16, 2011 Share Posted October 16, 2011 Euro winter forecast will make many in the east unhappy....hopefully its wrong. It looks an awful lot like '07-'08. We'd be on a big gradient here probably. I haven't seen it, I'm waiting until it comes out on the Euro site on the 22nd BUT, summer and fall 07' were nothing like this year; much, much wetter around here and that always seems to help some of course, a better 07/08 winter down here still ain't saying much since we ended up with 8.5" officially at BWI that year meh, it will be what will be...just as long as there are some storms to follow otoh, I do think our best chances in the MA are DEC to early JAN after that, we broil until the late winter/early spring flip where will "north of the gradient" end up being is what everyone from central Jersey on north will fear Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted October 17, 2011 Share Posted October 17, 2011 What does the euro winter forecast show for the MW/GL? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 17, 2011 Share Posted October 17, 2011 What does the euro winter forecast show for the MW/GL? It looked pretty snowy for you guys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
QCwx Posted October 17, 2011 Share Posted October 17, 2011 What does the Euro winter outlook show for Southeastern Canada ? It looked pretty snowy for you guys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 17, 2011 Share Posted October 17, 2011 What does the Euro winter outlook show for Southeastern Canada ? Same deal pretty much. That pattern would be similar up in se Canada. Again, don't take these verbatim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 17, 2011 Share Posted October 17, 2011 Euro winter forecast will make many in the east unhappy....hopefully its wrong. It looks an awful lot like '07-'08. We'd be on a big gradient here probably. I'd be fine with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 17, 2011 Share Posted October 17, 2011 I'd be fine with that. As well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 17, 2011 Share Posted October 17, 2011 As well 07-08 is about on par with the lower end of what I expect imby...at least as of now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 17, 2011 Share Posted October 17, 2011 07-08 is about on par with the lower end of what I expect imby...at least as of now. Yeah, Kind of waiting to see how the pattern develops out west and over Alaska, I know typically we fair a lot better in La Nina's here, I would welcome another winter like 07-08 for sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 17, 2011 Share Posted October 17, 2011 Yeah, Kind of waiting to see how the pattern develops out west and over Alaska, I know typically we fair a lot better in La Nina's here, I would welcome another winter like 07-08 for sure Yeah no problem up here with another '07-'08... 121" at BTV, 150-175" down in the ski towns (except 202" for J.Spin under the Spine), and over 300" on the upper elevations of the Spine. I'd lock that right in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 17, 2011 Share Posted October 17, 2011 Yeah no problem up here with another '07-'08... 121" at BTV, 150-175" down in the ski towns (except 202" for J.Spin under the Spine), and over 300" on the upper elevations of the Spine. I'd lock that right in. For sure... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adk Posted October 17, 2011 Share Posted October 17, 2011 Euro winter forecast will make many in the east unhappy....hopefully its wrong. It looks an awful lot like '07-'08. We'd be on a big gradient here probably. '07-08 was GREAT in nortner VT and the ADK. Strong gradient with low elevation mixed precip and a lot of high elevation orograpic snowfalls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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