ORH_wxman Posted October 12, 2011 Author Share Posted October 12, 2011 This year doesn't look even remotely close to either of those years. Looks much closer to 2008 and last year, for certain. Look up October '56 and '07 compared to October this year so far. I guess Sam's maps go back to September, but I only compared Octobers. Granted this October still has quite a bit of time to change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted October 13, 2011 Share Posted October 13, 2011 Whats the Nina doing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 13, 2011 Author Share Posted October 13, 2011 Whats the Nina doing? Strengthening. All regions below -0.5C now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 13, 2011 Share Posted October 13, 2011 Strengthening. All regions below -0.5C now. Check out the Siberia forecast, two thumbs up!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 13, 2011 Author Share Posted October 13, 2011 Check out the Siberia forecast, two thumbs up!!! Eh, looks like there could be some decent snow cover increase in the next 7-9 days, but I'm not all that amazed by the pattern there at the moment. Not that its a huge deal either. What ENSO is currently doing will certainly have a much larger impact. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 13, 2011 Share Posted October 13, 2011 Eh, looks like there could be some decent snow cover increase in the next 7-9 days, but I'm not all that amazed by the pattern there at the moment. Not that its a huge deal either. What ENSO is currently doing will certainly have a much larger impact. Disagree with ENSO up here. Think too much weight on ENSO, factor yes but not big one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 13, 2011 Author Share Posted October 13, 2011 Disagree with ENSO up here. Think too much weight on ENSO, factor yes but not big one. Talking ENSO with respect to the PAC side pattern. Our temp and snow anomalies are kind of ENSO-independent, but knowing what the PAC is going to look like can give us a better idea of how the pattern might set up (gradient? deeper troughs? Cold in Canada? etc) and which months could be most favorable for snow around here. The stronger the Nina, the more likely we are to see a gradient pattern. Monster blocking can throw that out of whack...on both sides of the ocean...as we saw last winter, but the long range is all about trying to get it right more than half of the time, not trying to nail 70 or 80% of the forecasts which just doesn't happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted October 13, 2011 Share Posted October 13, 2011 Now leaning normal to a tad above on the coast, 120% of normal SNE inland....150% of normal NNE. BOS: 45 PWM: 75 ORH: 80 GAY: 70 BDL: 50 CON: 90 LEW: 100 BTV: 95 Rindge: 90 Good winter but not spectacular in SNE, very good up north. Big bust potential as there are some great analogs along with a few stinkers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted October 13, 2011 Share Posted October 13, 2011 At the meeting I'm at, someone begged for my forecast alluding to the fact that a year ago at the same meeting I went balls to the wall and verified. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 13, 2011 Share Posted October 13, 2011 Now leaning normal to a tad above on the coast, 120% of normal SNE inland....150% of normal NNE. BOS: 45 PWM: 75 ORH: 80 GAY: 70 BDL: 50 CON: 90 LEW: 100 BTV: 95 Rindge: 90 Good winter but not spectacular in SNE, very good up north. Big bust potential as there are some great analogs along with a few stinkers. you left me off your update Liking the fact your numbers keep increasing since June, decent numbers right there. I am still compiling thoughts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted October 13, 2011 Share Posted October 13, 2011 you left me off your update Liking the fact your numbers keep increasing since June, decent numbers right there. I am still compiling thoughts. Me too. It's ok though. The east slope will get smoked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 13, 2011 Share Posted October 13, 2011 Strengthening. All regions below -0.5C now. published yesterday from the Aussies http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted October 13, 2011 Share Posted October 13, 2011 Strengthening. All regions below -0.5C now. Sure the ENSO has strengthened over the past few weeks with continued subsurface cooling and continued positive OLR anomalies. The SOI is currently positive and is just slightly above the La Nina threshold of +8.0 with the strongest Trade Winds currently across the Western Nina regions. Latest SST chart first; Monday SST anomalies; Today's SST anomalies; As you can see above the PDO regions experienced some cooling through this week, including the GOA which looks very interesting for the Winter season, and NIno region 3 and 3.4 show some cooling as well. Despite all this the MJO remains unfavorable currently in Phase 8, was in Phases 6/7 earlier on in the month and were starting to see a Kelvin Wave starting to progress Eastwards and may effect the Eastern Nina regions. Looking at the 850hpa Wind anomalies we can see this; http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/foregfs.shtml Should however see consistent strong Trade Winds across the Western Nina regions but I want your opinion on this? Do you think this current unfavorable MJO wave could really weaken the Nina or just a minor slow down? It is how ever expected to enter Phases 1/2 come October 20th or so and the GWO is also currently in Phase 8 with the GLAAM faling back down again near 1 sigma. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted October 14, 2011 Share Posted October 14, 2011 you left me off your update <img src='http://208.71.34.143/public/style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/sad.gif' class='bbc_emoticon' alt='' /> Liking the fact your numbers keep increasing since June, decent numbers right there. I am still compiling thoughts. KSTEVO: 49 GC: a lot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted October 14, 2011 Share Posted October 14, 2011 Now leaning normal to a tad above on the coast, 120% of normal SNE inland....150% of normal NNE. BOS: 45 PWM: 75 ORH: 80 GAY: 70 BDL: 50 CON: 90 LEW: 100 BTV: 95 Rindge: 90 Good winter but not spectacular in SNE, very good up north. Big bust potential as there are some great analogs along with a few stinkers. I like it. Rindge though should beat CON. I always beat CON and I am 350ft higher and 15 miles NW. Rindge has those advantages as well. If you have 90 for CON, then probably 110 for Rindge, me and Brian. Nate's tubes will not be visible.... I suspect you will be more like 60 in Brookline. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted October 14, 2011 Share Posted October 14, 2011 What were people saying at this time about last winter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 14, 2011 Share Posted October 14, 2011 What were people saying at this time about last winter? Well there was a concern about a lousy winter because of the impeding developing mdt-stg Nina, but we gave the caveat of not throwing in the towel because of the -NAO. We all know what happened. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted October 14, 2011 Share Posted October 14, 2011 Well there was a concern about a lousy winter because of the impeding developing mdt-stg Nina, but we gave the caveat of not throwing in the towel because of the -NAO. We all know what happened. And so a moderate Nina is causing the gradient winter this year? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted October 14, 2011 Share Posted October 14, 2011 What were people saying at this time about last winter? Some were correctly predicting plenty of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 14, 2011 Share Posted October 14, 2011 Now leaning normal to a tad above on the coast, 120% of normal SNE inland....150% of normal NNE. BOS: 45 PWM: 75 ORH: 80 GAY: 70 BDL: 50 CON: 90 LEW: 100 BTV: 95 Rindge: 90 Good winter but not spectacular in SNE, very good up north. Big bust potential as there are some great analogs along with a few stinkers. 150% of normal in NNE would be a solid winter... that's ~120" at BTV. Which although that's a top 5 winter if BTV exceeds 120", they've done it 3 times in the past 10 years and only two other times in the 100(!) years before that (1970-1971 and 1886-1887). Still hard to believe just how stacked the snowfall records are since 2000 up this way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 14, 2011 Share Posted October 14, 2011 Where can you go to look at maps of past Northern Hemisphere snow cover? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 14, 2011 Share Posted October 14, 2011 Where can you go to look at maps of past Northern Hemisphere snow cover? http://www.natice.noaa.gov/ims/ bottom of the page, left side, "Past Years" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 14, 2011 Share Posted October 14, 2011 What were people saying at this time about last winter? http://www.easternuswx.com/bb/index.php?/topic/240313-new-england-snowfall-contest/ apparently I won, found out yesterday, Will owing me some pops at the next GTG FTW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 14, 2011 Share Posted October 14, 2011 http://www.natice.noaa.gov/ims/ bottom of the page, left side, "Past Years" Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 14, 2011 Share Posted October 14, 2011 It only goes back to 1997 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted October 14, 2011 Share Posted October 14, 2011 Look up October '56 and '07 compared to October this year so far. I guess Sam's maps go back to September, but I only compared Octobers. Granted this October still has quite a bit of time to change. I was just doing pattern matching at 500mb and the anomalies from October 1 forward to current date using our most recent Nina years.... Which of course makes me a total Having gone back and looked, it does look similar to those years, but like you mentioned still time....things are definitely more interesting this year it seems... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted October 14, 2011 Share Posted October 14, 2011 Will, what's your take on the sea ice situation? It looks like IARC-JAXA has not reported since 10/3 due to AMSR-E problems....and the only other source I trust is the Danish site...quite a set back lately? Probably no need to worry as much as snow cover though....2009 featured a massive loss iirc late in October and through November Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 14, 2011 Author Share Posted October 14, 2011 Will, what's your take on the sea ice situation? It looks like IARC-JAXA has not reported since 10/3 due to AMSR-E problems....and the only other source I trust is the Danish site...quite a set back lately? Probably no need to worry as much as snow cover though....2009 featured a massive loss iirc late in October and through November The ice gain has slowed recently. I wouldn't worry about it too much. I'd like to see the snow up in Siberia gain more, We had some nice gains the last day or two...so getting back closer to normal now. But it would be nice to see a good explosion in the snow cover like we saw the last 2 Octobers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted October 14, 2011 Share Posted October 14, 2011 The ice gain has slowed recently. I wouldn't worry about it too much. I'd like to see the snow up in Siberia gain more, We had some nice gains the last day or two...so getting back closer to normal now. But it would be nice to see a good explosion in the snow cover like we saw the last 2 Octobers. Yeah I'm not worried much about the sea ice at all. And the fact that we're not really getting good data leads me to believe it's probably better than we think. Snow cover even less of a worry at this time. The fact that we keep getting serious shortwaves which like to dig and close off in our area is much more important (and telling) right now.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted October 14, 2011 Share Posted October 14, 2011 Anyway, here's the latest from Arctic Roos....as LL would proudly say, "headed for 2007"... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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