WeatherX Posted October 9, 2011 Share Posted October 9, 2011 Yes partly. Strengthening Nina will try to promote a SE ridge. The only way to stop it is to have a strong -NAO like we had for a good portion of last winter. There's a good chance that Canada will be very cold this winter with an Aleutian ridge and in tandem with a SE ridge, naturally you get a gradient in between. A warm autumn is pretty common in La Ninas, so I don't put much stock into the current temperature departure with how they relate to the winter pattern. If we get another potent -NAO, then we'll see cold all the way into the southeast US again...but my gut is that the NAO isn't nearly as extreme this winter. Yeah we haven't had a nice strong leading -NAO into early autumn so far this year.....So I think I am going to go ahead and agree with you at this point on wagons north.....2007-2008 lite....I've given up the fight lol......if we can sneak a 40-50 in down here this winter, I'll be thrilled.....NAO looks like it's going to take the season off, like the Yanks and Bosox Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 9, 2011 Share Posted October 9, 2011 Leaning towards a BIG winter...going to see a big gradient but if we can see a potent -NAO like the past two years nobody in SNE should have to worry really. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 9, 2011 Author Share Posted October 9, 2011 Yeah we haven't had a nice strong leading -NAO into early autumn so far this year.....So I think I am going to go ahead and agree with you at this point on wagons north.....2007-2008 lite....I've given up the fight lol......if we can sneak a 40-50 in down here this winter, I'll be thrilled.....NAO looks like it's going to take the season off, like the Yanks and Bosox Its certainly not a given that we will see a massive gradient. We could still have a gradient where your area does fine ala 2008-2009....you cracked 40" that winter, right? That winter was gradient, but just not as ridiculously extreme like 2007-2008 was. It also had a mildly negative NAO for the winter. So I could def. see something like that. If the -NAO is a bit stronger, then it could be a lot more fun fireworks again. A +NAO though like '07-'08 would def promote more of a gradient, so we'll just have to see how it looks in another month as we get closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted October 9, 2011 Share Posted October 9, 2011 Its certainly not a given that we will see a massive gradient. We could still have a gradient where your area does fine ala 2008-2009....you cracked 40" that winter, right? That winter was gradient, but just not as ridiculously extreme like 2007-2008 was. It also had a mildly negative NAO for the winter. So I could def. see something like that. If the -NAO is a bit stronger, then it could be a lot more fun fireworks again. A +NAO though like '07-'08 would def promote more of a gradient, so we'll just have to see how it looks in another month as we get closer. No of course nothing is a given and we've been spoiled rotten the last couple of winters here...I guess I'm just not seeing the big signal for the -NAO like last winter as of now. Perhaps it shows up at some point, but I think we will have more SWF events this winter, which of course I love because we still cash in down here on those, but I'm much more resigned to something closer to the new normal (40+) here. We've got friends in Windham Maine, so we can always camp out up there when we need to..... I'd like to see a meaningful move in the NAO by months end as a signal for something better here for sure...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 9, 2011 Author Share Posted October 9, 2011 No of course nothing is a given and we've been spoiled rotten the last couple of winters here...I guess I'm just not seeing the big signal for the -NAO like last winter as of now. Perhaps it shows up at some point, but I think we will have more SWF events this winter, which of course I love because we still cash in down here on those, but I'm much more resigned to something closer to the new normal (40+) here. We've got friends in Windham Maine, so we can always camp out up there when we need to..... I'd like to see a meaningful move in the NAO by months end as a signal for something better here for sure...... Hey I agree with you there, John...seeing big -NAO blocks always makes be feel better about the state of it going forward even if its not always the right way to feel. I think we'll see some blocking this winter, but just likely not to the extent we saw last year. If we can keep a mean -NAO this winter, my guess is New England does pretty well...even the extreme southern parts where you are....ala '08-'09...if its very negative, then fireworks could happen again like last winter. If it goes positive this winter though on the mean, then I think the southern areas will struggle a lot more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 9, 2011 Share Posted October 9, 2011 Probably won't see as much Kbosch claiming a sw ct winter. I'm in the -NAO will not be like we've seen in the past/gradient winter camp....but I'm hoping we can get some sort of last ditch effort for a SSW in Feb or March. Perhaps if we start transitioning out of Nina later this winter, combined with a more full layer -QBO...it could happen. HM or others may know more about this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted October 9, 2011 Share Posted October 9, 2011 Probably won't see as much Kbosch claiming a sw ct winter. I'm in the -NAO will not be like we've seen in the past/gradient winter camp....but I'm hoping we can get some sort of last ditch effort for a SSW in Feb or March. Perhaps if we start transitioning out of Nina later this winter, combined with a more full layer -QBO...it could happen. HM or others may know more about this. Fully agree Scooter, we are quite possibly cooked, literally, down here. Tight gradient from sw to ne, Vermont cashes in big time, might not be the pow pow all the time but record snowfall for the greens Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 9, 2011 Share Posted October 9, 2011 Fully agree Scooter, we are quite possibly cooked, literally, down here. Tight gradient from sw to ne, Vermont cashes in big time, might not be the pow pow all the time but record snowfall for the greens I wouldn't go that far. I mean like Will said...if we have some blocking..we all can cash in. In only takes a big storm to really boost those winter totals.Just saying, not sure they are the snow magnet like last year. Heck, even this area might not be all that special. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 10, 2011 Share Posted October 10, 2011 Interesting that blocking in western parts of Russia and in the NPAC near and east of Kamchatka showing up on the euro ensembles. We def want that to continue, esp in the NPAC. The ridging in wrn Russia may hurt snowpack there, but central and eastern Russia, especially northeast Siberia should become snowy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 10, 2011 Share Posted October 10, 2011 Big, big winter incoming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 10, 2011 Share Posted October 10, 2011 Big, big winter incoming. I would be stunned if it wasn't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 10, 2011 Share Posted October 10, 2011 Its certainly not a given that we will see a massive gradient. We could still have a gradient where your area does fine ala 2008-2009....you cracked 40" that winter, right? That winter was gradient, but just not as ridiculously extreme like 2007-2008 was. It also had a mildly negative NAO for the winter. So I could def. see something like that. If the -NAO is a bit stronger, then it could be a lot more fun fireworks again. A +NAO though like '07-'08 would def promote more of a gradient, so we'll just have to see how it looks in another month as we get closer. I'm rather firmly in this camp....gradient maybe even less pronounced than it was in '09, but I could definitely envision more of a marine stratification to the seasonal sf gradient. This could be an interior winter....by that I mean trememendous outside of I 495, and merely good inside. I don't think anyone in NE will see a terrible winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 10, 2011 Share Posted October 10, 2011 I'm rather firmly in this camp....gradient maybe even less pronounced than it was in '09, but I could definitely envision more of a marine stratification to the seasonal sf gradient. This could be an interior winter....by that I mean trememendous outside of I 495, and merely good inside. I don't think anyone in NE will see a terrible winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 10, 2011 Share Posted October 10, 2011 I wouldn't be shocked of the marine stratification like Ray alludes to, but I think we can get some nice cold highs building down too, so hopefully that limits marine taint. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 10, 2011 Share Posted October 10, 2011 I wouldn't be shocked of the marine stratification like Ray alludes to, but I think we can get some nice cold highs building down too, so hopefully that limits marine taint. Yea, probably a configuration that lies in between 2008 and 2001, which isn't saying a ton lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 10, 2011 Share Posted October 10, 2011 I would be stunned if it wasn't. I'd be shocked if I did not see 70" and mildy suprised if I didn't see 80". The one Scooter flag being the strength of la Nina....we don't want to start toying with high-end moderate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adk Posted October 10, 2011 Share Posted October 10, 2011 As some of you know I lead a double life as a weather dude for skiers. It's a platitude to say that the weather up high is different than the weather in towns and cities but sometimes that's forgotten in forecasting. My approach is to reverse the trend. I only forecast for the mountains and forget the rest. So with that said I throw my hat into the ring with a winter forecast for VT, the NE and Utah. I'm no pro and I'm sure this is full of errors and misstatements. But I tried. Love to hear feedback http://www.famousinternetskiers.com/2011-2012-winter-outlook/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted October 11, 2011 Share Posted October 11, 2011 Can someone give me some cases of fast moving Miller As? Storms that rocketed up the coast? Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYsnowlover Posted October 11, 2011 Share Posted October 11, 2011 Can someone give me some cases of fast moving Miller As? Storms that rocketed up the coast? Thanks I think last December was one? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 11, 2011 Author Share Posted October 11, 2011 IIRC 1/12/96 was a very brisk moving miller A. Hugged the coast, but was in and out of here in less than 8 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted October 11, 2011 Share Posted October 11, 2011 As some of you know I lead a double life as a weather dude for skiers. It's a platitude to say that the weather up high is different than the weather in towns and cities but sometimes that's forgotten in forecasting. My approach is to reverse the trend. I only forecast for the mountains and forget the rest. So with that said I throw my hat into the ring with a winter forecast for VT, the NE and Utah. I'm no pro and I'm sure this is full of errors and misstatements. But I tried. Love to hear feedback http://www.famousint...winter-outlook/ That was a good read/analysis (I think) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted October 11, 2011 Share Posted October 11, 2011 Thanks guys. Good examples Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 11, 2011 Author Share Posted October 11, 2011 March '93 screamed up the coast once it got out of the gulf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 11, 2011 Author Share Posted October 11, 2011 March '93 screamed up the coast once it got out of the gulf. You could probably add Jan 22-23, 1987 to that too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted October 11, 2011 Share Posted October 11, 2011 I think last December was one? I think feb of 86 or 87....dumped 2 feet plus on the western suburbs of Philly in about 8 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted October 12, 2011 Share Posted October 12, 2011 GOA Low, Snow lovers woe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 12, 2011 Author Share Posted October 12, 2011 GOA Low, Snow lovers woe That pattern shown would be a nightmare in the winter for getting snow. Thankfully several Ninas have had that look in October only to produce in the winter for us. That actually looks eerily similar to the Oct '07 and Oct '56 patterns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted October 12, 2011 Share Posted October 12, 2011 Yep, I'm fine to get this pattern over with now. The only thing I don't like is the related SST response in the GOA, but that's really not where major forcing happens, so it has little effect under the influence of everything else. I'm pretty excited to watch this evolve over the next week. We're definitely going through a pattern change, though short duration. All that energy in the GOA is dumping into Canada and the central Plains. Should get interesting. I think first snows for many at least over the northern Plains and Great Lakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted October 12, 2011 Share Posted October 12, 2011 That pattern shown would be a nightmare in the winter for getting snow. Thankfully several Ninas have had that look in October only to produce in the winter for us. That actually looks eerily similar to the Oct '07 and Oct '56 patterns. This year doesn't look even remotely close to either of those years. Looks much closer to 2008 and last year, for certain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted October 12, 2011 Share Posted October 12, 2011 Thanks guys. Good examples Miller As tend to redevlop further north along the coast at some point during their lifetime. I read this in KU. I think this occurs because the arctic air erodes over the Gulfstream in conjunction with the latent heat warming the mid levels, hence SLP drops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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