ORH_wxman Posted September 29, 2011 Author Share Posted September 29, 2011 Subsurface continues to cool off. Sfc cooling spreading a bit further west now with Nino 4 now down to -0.5C Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted September 29, 2011 Share Posted September 29, 2011 Will, what was the major storm pattern in 07-08? What will be the primary storm pattern this year you think? More Miller As, Bs, SW flow? Also, When did that classic -NAO pattern set up? October? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted September 29, 2011 Share Posted September 29, 2011 I seriously can't wait for the first major storm. Boxing day storm last year was so fun to track. Hopefully we get a blockbuster in November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted September 30, 2011 Author Share Posted September 30, 2011 Will, what was the major storm pattern in 07-08? What will be the primary storm pattern this year you think? More Miller As, Bs, SW flow? Also, When did that classic -NAO pattern set up? October? '07-'08 had a storm track mostly through the OH valley and then over to NYC or just south...it caused a huge snowfall gradient over SNE. BOS/ORH finished above average while BDL/PVD were below average...and the south coast was a wasteland for winter wx that season. October '07 didn't have a -NAO...it was positive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted September 30, 2011 Share Posted September 30, 2011 Subsurface continues to cool off. Sfc cooling spreading a bit further west now with Nino 4 now down to -0.5C Atmosphere is decoupled.......not what you would like to see for a strengthening Nina, imo. Of course the last frame is interesting.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted September 30, 2011 Share Posted September 30, 2011 It is not decoupled. There will always be times of tropical wave propagation that affects AAM. There is no denying La Niña is intensifying and will likely be a moderate event this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted September 30, 2011 Share Posted September 30, 2011 The closet analogue in my opinion in resemblance to this year is 2008-09. 1977-78 despite being a Nino seems like a reasonable analogue, dont you think? IMO I think the cooling should resume more substantially come Mid-Late October with perhaps a late peak. You are correct that we have a lot of similarities to 2008 but we also have similarities to 1999, 1928, 1938, 1975, 1955, 1933, 1971 and 1967 in terms of sensible weather and how wet it has been along the East Coast. I agree that the MJO wave may possibly slow the cooling for a time mid-October but will resume again thereafter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted September 30, 2011 Share Posted September 30, 2011 '07-'08 had a storm track mostly through the OH valley and then over to NYC or just south...it caused a huge snowfall gradient over SNE. BOS/ORH finished above average while BDL/PVD were below average...and the south coast was a wasteland for winter wx that season. October '07 didn't have a -NAO...it was positive. Whats the NAO on track to be this year? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted September 30, 2011 Author Share Posted September 30, 2011 It is not decoupled. There will always be times of tropical wave propagation that affects AAM. There is no denying La Niña is intensifying and will likely be a moderate event this winter. I've been getting more versed in the kelvin wave stuff over the past two winters but obviously do not have the previous years of interest in it like you do....but I'm still wondering how exactly this Nina strengthening (pretty decently as of now...and as you said, looks like moderate is becoming a good bet) and the uncertainty of the QBO ties into the propensity for us to get MJO waves deep into the Pacific? This might be better suited for the main wx side thread, but I'm already posting it here...maybe I'll just copy the posts to there. But Jan '09 and Jan '11 obviously had the solidly +QBO which saw the big MJO-induced cold patterns for the east. The -QBO/Nina years haven't been doing that recently, but I'm only speaking this decade....so SSS caveat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted September 30, 2011 Share Posted September 30, 2011 It is not decoupled. There will always be times of tropical wave propagation that affects AAM. There is no denying La Niña is intensifying and will likely be a moderate event this winter. So what are we looking at as far as response times for GWO and ENSO...I've never understood the relationship very well....nice to see you posting in the SNE thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted September 30, 2011 Share Posted September 30, 2011 So what are we looking at as far as response times for GWO and ENSO...I've never understood the relationship very well....nice to see you posting in the SNE thread. Nevermind HM....just read your thoughts on the main page. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted September 30, 2011 Share Posted September 30, 2011 I've been getting more versed in the kelvin wave stuff over the past two winters but obviously do not have the previous years of interest in it like you do....but I'm still wondering how exactly this Nina strengthening (pretty decently as of now...and as you said, looks like moderate is becoming a good bet) and the uncertainty of the QBO ties into the propensity for us to get MJO waves deep into the Pacific? This might be better suited for the main wx side thread, but I'm already posting it here...maybe I'll just copy the posts to there. But Jan '09 and Jan '11 obviously had the solidly +QBO which saw the big MJO-induced cold patterns for the east. The -QBO/Nina years haven't been doing that recently, but I'm only speaking this decade....so SSS caveat. The last few winters have been dictated by Mid Latitudes/Poles more than normal. When times of blocking occur, cooler air gets displaced away from the poles. If a complete PV destruction happens (e.g. the strong final warming this past spring) and remnant high potential vorticity laden air gets displaced to the Equator, the air will grow more unstable and favor convection. This will also weaken the Hadley Cell's subsidence zone by increasing clouds / uplift in the Subtropics too. Weaker trades and cooler temperatures will set the environment up for an MJO wave. All of this ties into the Siberian Snow Cover / Asian response to the stratospheric/tropospheric wave response for disturbing the PV too. I think we have been seeing these processes happen a lot more than usual lately. The -QBO cool ENSO years will often have more convection...but where? More convection over the W. Pacific would actually make for a warmer CONUS picture, all else being equal. Coupling the -QBO with ENSO would enhance the Walker-induced convection in the W. PAC during a La Niña and therefore make it difficult for Asia to disturb the vortex and for us to have a PNA sustained. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 30, 2011 Share Posted September 30, 2011 It seems like the La Nina is starting to take effect somewhat. We see a decent SE Ridge developing across the Atlantic through the next few days and stays consistent atleast through much of next week. Models develop a Colorado Low of some sort late next week followed by a Clipper then a Cool down across the East. PNA stays negative through next week with a neutral NAO and slightly positive AO. Thus far the SST configuration looks very similar to 2008 across the Atlantic/Pacific. The cold anomalies across the GOA are very similar to that of this year along with a well defined -PDO. However across the Atlantic the SST anomalies don't resemble 2010 but resemble 2009 somewhat. Other similar years in the last few years include, 2004, 2002 and 1999 and this is only speaking for the Atlantic. Surely enough the PDO stayed positive through 2006 before going negative back in 2007. Notice most of the analogues I included featured High Tropical Storm activity across the Atlantic. BTW the MJO is currently forecasted to move towards phases 6/7 which is not favorable for La Nina development. We'll see if any Kelvin waves develop but we should be seeing another burst of Trade Winds across the Nina regions next week with the SOI remaining positive with the GLAAM near neutral currently associated with the unfavorable MJO and with the GWO in phase 4. The Subsurface cooling seem to have expanded Westward towards the Western Nina regions lately but I haven't seen any significant cooling lately but I expect it to resume come Mid October or so. Not sure this is correct - could be, but you can't really blame a single synoptic evolution on the ENSO any more than you can say a heat wave is "caused" by global warming - it's incorrect logic in either case. Here, the NAO is modulating a weak influence above 0.0 SD, and the PNA is diving negative in between D6-10; that's a moderate warm signal for the eastern conus regardless of the background ENSO state and can happen in La Nina just the same. Gotta be careful how we bandy about these conceptual applications. Lord knows I've done this myself and settled into an assumption; most the time I get burned when I do, and have to say, damn - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted September 30, 2011 Share Posted September 30, 2011 Subsurface continues to cool off. Sfc cooling spreading a bit further west now with Nino 4 now down to -0.5C not so sure I like that but here's a decent link for following it you can set the time frame for any period, but I did 6/1/11-9/28/11 http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/teleconnections/enso/indicators/sea-temp.php?level=eq&begmonth=6&begday=1&begyear=2011&endmonth=9&endday=28&endyear=2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYsnowlover Posted September 30, 2011 Share Posted September 30, 2011 Will, what was the major storm pattern in 07-08? What will be the primary storm pattern this year you think? More Miller As, Bs, SW flow?Also, When did that classic -NAO pattern set up? October? I know this may not answer your question, but this site is a very good read if you want to know more about Miller A's and Miller B's, like I said, it is a very good read, especially if you are still learning. http://berkswintercast.tripod.com/id85.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted September 30, 2011 Share Posted September 30, 2011 Subsurface continues to cool off. Sfc cooling spreading a bit further west now with Nino 4 now down to -0.5C I think we'll end up having a Basin Wide or Central Based La Nina. The cold anomalies have definitely spread Westward recently with the strongest trade winds present across that region. It is not decoupled. There will always be times of tropical wave propagation that affects AAM. There is no denying La Niña is intensifying and will likely be a moderate event this winter. I agree with a ONI Peak reading between -0.8 and -1.4 sounds reasonable enough though I don't expect it to be stronger than last year's Nina, perhaps a 1974-75 La Nina type. You are correct that we have a lot of similarities to 2008 but we also have similarities to 1999, 1928, 1938, 1975, 1955, 1933, 1971 and 1967 in terms of sensible weather and how wet it has been along the East Coast. I agree that the MJO wave may possibly slow the cooling for a time mid-October but will resume again thereafter. I don't like using 1999 since the PDO was in a different physical state. Sure enough the PDO transitioned to negative in 1998/1999 or so for a brief period but the residual effects of the +PDO were still in place and the AMO also transitioned to positive just 3-4 years earlier. In terms of the NAO/AO there were entirely different and we sustained a positive NAO/AO for 1999-00 and the 99-00 La Nina was stronger than the 98-99 La Nina. QBO remained positive at 30 hpa and 50 hpa btw. Your other analogues seem reasonable. The MJO is expected to remain in phases 6/7/8 till about Mid October so the cooling should stall till then and with the GWO in Phases 5/6 we've developed a +GLAAM so either way the La Nina is not in a favorable position currently other than the consistent trade winds. Not sure this is correct - could be, but you can't really blame a single synoptic evolution on the ENSO any more than you can say a heat wave is "caused" by global warming - it's incorrect logic in either case. Here, the NAO is modulating a weak influence above 0.0 SD, and the PNA is diving negative in between D6-10; that's a moderate warm signal for the eastern conus regardless of the background ENSO state and can happen in La Nina just the same. Gotta be careful how we bandy about these conceptual applications. Lord knows I've done this myself and settled into an assumption; most the time I get burned when I do, and have to say, damn - I'm not trying to connect the current weather event to the ENSO event, just referencing a point given the similarities between a typical La Nina pattern and the current pattern. The NAO how ever may go briefly negative come next week but we'll see how long it lasts with the AAO remaining negative still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYsnowlover Posted October 7, 2011 Share Posted October 7, 2011 What do you guys think that the impact if the new volcanic eruption in Iceland, will have on our winter? I think that the name if it is Katla. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 7, 2011 Share Posted October 7, 2011 It's going to be interesting to see how much more cooling we continue to see occurring across the Nino regions. Since the beginning of August we've seen some decent cooling occurring in all Nino regions and in fact the last time any region saw a positive anomaly was August 3rd and that was in Nino 1.2. Since the final week of August, however, the cooling has leveled off. Still have some warm anomalies showing up near the South American coast but they have not been warming and if anything have probably been slightly cooling. If we somehow managed to see another moderate Nina with another low -NAO winter it could be pretty epic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted October 7, 2011 Share Posted October 7, 2011 What do you guys think that the impact if the new volcanic eruption in Iceland, will have on our winter? I think that the name if it is Katla. zilch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted October 8, 2011 Share Posted October 8, 2011 model guidance keeps keying in on a number of upper lows cutting off just to our south over the next couple weeks. This would be an optimum situation in the winter. Would be nice to see this tendency continue Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 8, 2011 Share Posted October 8, 2011 model guidance keeps keying in on a number of upper lows cutting off just to our south over the next couple weeks. This would be an optimum situation in the winter. Would be nice to see this tendency continue Yeah it would be. Unfortunately, jet sags south probably and progressive nrn stream dominates. Unless, we can get some nice blocking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted October 8, 2011 Share Posted October 8, 2011 Yeah it would be. Unfortunately, jet sags south probably and progressive nrn stream dominates. Unless, we can get some nice blocking. From my posts in the Mid Atlantic forum... We might see another Neg A O winter coming up...Since 1950 Aug. 2011 has the third lowest AO index...all the analogs below had a lower AO value in the winter months..... year...Aug.AO index...Winters low value 1977.....-1.412.....-3.014 Feb... 1964.....-1.207.....-2.084 Feb... 2011.....-1.063.....-??? 1960.....-1.008.....-1.506 Jan... 1950.....-0.851.....-1.928 Dec... 1987.....-0.836.....-1.066 Feb... 1986.....-0.826.....-1.473 Feb... years with at least one month with an AO index -2.000 or lower... 1955-56 1956-57 1957-58 1958-59 1959-60 five straight years 1962-63 1964-65 1965-66 eight of eleven years 1967-68 1968-69 1969-70 three straight years 1976-77 1977-78 1978-79 1979-80 four straight years 1983-84 1984-85 1985-86 three straight years 1995-96 1997-98 2000-01 2009-10 2010-11 two years it looks like we could have a third straight winter with at least one month with an AO -2.000...It worked wonders the last two years but not so good for some other years...almost every time there were two straight years at least one more followed...1976-77 and 2009-10 had Dec/Jan/Feb all below -2.000...There were only three winters between 1986 and 2008 with a monthly ao index lower than -2.000...Are we in a downward cycle of the AO? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 8, 2011 Share Posted October 8, 2011 From my posts in the Mid Atlantic forum... We might see another Neg A O winter coming up...Since 1950 Aug. 2011 has the third lowest AO index...all the analogs below had a lower AO value in the winter months..... year...Aug.AO index...Winters low value 1977.....-1.412.....-3.014 Feb... 1964.....-1.207.....-2.084 Feb... 2011.....-1.063.....-??? 1960.....-1.008.....-1.506 Jan... 1950.....-0.851.....-1.928 Dec... 1987.....-0.836.....-1.066 Feb... 1986.....-0.826.....-1.473 Feb... years with at least one month with an AO index -2.000 or lower... 1955-56 1956-57 1957-58 1958-59 1959-60 five straight years 1962-63 1964-65 1965-66 eight of eleven years 1967-68 1968-69 1969-70 three straight years 1976-77 1977-78 1978-79 1979-80 four straight years 1983-84 1984-85 1985-86 three straight years 1995-96 1997-98 2000-01 2009-10 2010-11 two years it looks like we could have a third straight winter with at least one month with an AO -2.000...It worked wonders the last two years but not so good for some other years...almost every time there were two straight years at least one more followed...1976-77 and 2009-10 had Dec/Jan/Feb all below -2.000...There were only three winters between 1986 and 2008 with a monthly ao index lower than -2.000...Are we in a downward cycle of the AO? I agree the AO could be negative overall. I've heard the August correlation as well in house at work. I'm thinking it might not be as low as -2.000, but I'm not a long range expert either. I certainly hope it's closer to -2.000. I have a feeling Canada will have the cold no doubt, so any blocking will have the ability to deliver the goods. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 9, 2011 Author Share Posted October 9, 2011 I could envision something like this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted October 9, 2011 Share Posted October 9, 2011 I could envision something like this Do you know how much Ashburnham saw in those years, Will? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 9, 2011 Author Share Posted October 9, 2011 Do you know how much Ashburnham saw in those years, Will? 1956-1957: 92.2" 1970-1971: 103.5" 1974-1975: 80.6" 2000-2001: 127.0" 2008-2009: 83.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted October 9, 2011 Share Posted October 9, 2011 1956-1957: 92.2" 1970-1971: 103.5" 1974-1975: 80.6" 2000-2001: 127.0" 2008-2009: 83.7" Those are some heavy-hitters....I know that 70-71 broke the snowfall record in BTV and in ALB, so not surprised to see that here. I think we can safely add 2-3" from Ashburnham for the campus as it's further north with a bit more elevation, especially if you consider the high points like Stony Top Mountain. I am really convinced this will be a great winter here with the Niña/-QBO pattern, as well as the fact that global temperatures seem to be cooling extremely rapidly, and that could add a bit extra punch to the Canadian airmasses if we see an Aleutian ridge. The campus has great equipment for sledding and ice skating so I can't wait. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 9, 2011 Author Share Posted October 9, 2011 Those are some heavy-hitters....I know that 70-71 broke the snowfall record in BTV and in ALB, so not surprised to see that here. I think we can safely add 2-3" from Ashburnham for the campus as it's further north with a bit more elevation, especially if you consider the high points like Stony Top Mountain. I am really convinced this will be a great winter here with the Niña/-QBO pattern, as well as the fact that global temperatures seem to be cooling extremely rapidly, and that could add a bit extra punch to the Canadian airmasses if we see an Aleutian ridge. The campus has great equipment for sledding and ice skating so I can't wait. Yeah I'd be leaning above avg snowfall there at the moment. Obviously we could have a total dud too, but I do think odds are in favor of more snowy there. We did well here in those winters...'74-'75 and '56-';57 were around average (Ashburnham was near average in 74-75 too) but the other 3 were above. Gradient pattern will probably be a lot more prevalent this winter only because I am not expecting such a monster -NAO. I think it will average out negative, but it won't be nearly as extreme as we've seen the last two winters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted October 9, 2011 Share Posted October 9, 2011 Yeah I'd be leaning above avg snowfall there at the moment. Obviously we could have a total dud too, but I do think odds are in favor of more snowy there. We did well here in those winters...'74-'75 and '56-';57 were around average (Ashburnham was near average in 74-75 too) but the other 3 were above. Gradient pattern will probably be a lot more prevalent this winter only because I am not expecting such a monster -NAO. I think it will average out negative, but it won't be nearly as extreme as we've seen the last two winters. Based on what? Analogs? Certainly not current weather patterns.....I'd go above normal temps near the Mass border and above for most of winter as of now...Looks like another south of 84 winter coming up to me.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 9, 2011 Author Share Posted October 9, 2011 Based on what? Analogs? Certainly not current weather patterns.....I'd go above normal temps near the Mass border and above for most of winter as of now...Looks like another south of 84 winter coming up to me.... Yes partly. Strengthening Nina will try to promote a SE ridge. The only way to stop it is to have a strong -NAO like we had for a good portion of last winter. There's a good chance that Canada will be very cold this winter with an Aleutian ridge and in tandem with a SE ridge, naturally you get a gradient in between. A warm autumn is pretty common in La Ninas, so I don't put much stock into the current temperature departure with how they relate to the winter pattern. If we get another potent -NAO, then we'll see cold all the way into the southeast US again...but my gut is that the NAO isn't nearly as extreme this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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