OKpowdah Posted June 13, 2011 Share Posted June 13, 2011 Ahhh, I recalled incorrectly then. Seems like we can count on huge January busts though in cold ENSO recently regardless of the reason. lol yes. And we can also count on a thoroughly uneventful February and March regardless of Tip posting about "stratospheric tsunamis" (the 2009 MMW) That was actually the first time I started paying attention to the stratosphere, and after that huge event, I thought "wow nothing happened. This whole stratospheric warming bit is totally crap" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted June 13, 2011 Share Posted June 13, 2011 lol yes. And we can also count on a thoroughly uneventful February and March regardless of Tip posting about "stratospheric tsunamis" (the 2009 MMW) That was actually the first time I started paying attention to the stratosphere, and after that huge event, I thought "wow nothing happened. This whole stratospheric warming bit is totally crap" That wasn't me - that was poster named Jim Hughes that coined that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted June 13, 2011 Share Posted June 13, 2011 That wasn't me - that was poster named Jim Hughes that coined that. ooooh yeah! Sorry about the mix-up! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted June 13, 2011 Share Posted June 13, 2011 ooooh yeah! Sorry about the mix-up! I have talked about stratospheric warming events at length in the past, though. In fact I was the first poster that brought the science to the attention of Eastern back in '06 - though people copy-catted the research numerous times, and I know, because they repeated terminlologies that I coined. Anyway, those that later bring it up don't always understand certain aspects about it - namely one, the anomaly has to propagate for the correlation on the AO to become strong. Also a -AO phsae may dump most its cold over in Asia and Europe; the MJO's favorable wave number has to relay wave decay influences into the EPO domain. The negative EPO is more important for creating a N/A hemispheric-scaled cold conveyor during negative AO modalities. The reason why is because the predominate circulation system is west to east. The NAO is hugely important for maintaining cold once said conveyor is established. Our latitude is interesting though - because a -PNA/+EPO/-NAO can favor great SWFE and/or icing scenarios...but that's a different discussion. Best bet for getting a KU type favoribility: blase EPO crashes because the MJO puked out a huge dose of R-wave dispersion and a 60N ridge wall drills a full latitude ridge into Alaska, tapping into an erstwhile relaxation in the AO wind field. That relaxation may or may not be preceded some 3 weeks in advance by an SSW. ...the rest is history and the erstwhile operational ECMWF may show a 970mb house-sucker low sittin' somewheres Del Marva to Maine on the D8 chart all the sudden. In simple terms, you can get a SSW and subsequent -AO in the typical 3 week lag correlation ... but if the anomaly distribution in temperatures doesn't waver much at home, one would take great great risk if they presumed that the SSW/AO correlation on cold delivery were wrong. In fact ...they would be. The circulation as a whole has to be considered. You know it's funny ... this whole "IMBY" thing... it's a relative acronym. It is not IMBY to discuss North America in the same synoptic domain relative to New England - in fact, it is open minded and demonstrates an understanding of the broader canvas in the circulation system. It is, however, very close-minded and IMBY to think only of N/A Btw, the MJO is a factor that is less correlated when the other middle latitude field states oppose it. It is HUGELY correlated when they do, however. A Phase 1 MJO of moderate or greater strengh may make one drool ... but if they undstand this constructive and/or deconstructive interference process, they might see a -PNA and temper their enthusiasm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 13, 2011 Share Posted June 13, 2011 Maybe 98-99 That was good down on the s-shore. I'm thinking '04-'05 only long sustained cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 13, 2011 Share Posted June 13, 2011 I don't like saying we are "due" because stats are comprised of events that occurred frequently and also events that didn't occur for several or more successive years, but I'm hoping we can get a high end advisory or low end warning snow for November. We haven't had one in a while...not talking about the 1-3" stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 13, 2011 Share Posted June 13, 2011 This winter also satisfied my comma head fetish. Almost every storm had mid level flow from the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted June 13, 2011 Author Share Posted June 13, 2011 I don't like saying we are "due" because stats are comprised of events that occurred frequently and also events that didn't occur for several or more successive years, but I'm hoping we can get a high end advisory or low end warning snow for November. We haven't had one in a while...not talking about the 1-3" stuff. Its been since 2004 for that. 2005 had an advisory event for the interior on Thanksgiving morning but it was low end advisory. Mainly 2-4" with a couple isolated 5" amounts. Going back for high end advisory or low end warning November snow, we have had 2004, 2002, 1995, 1991 (interior only), 1989, 1987, 1986. Its supposed to average about one every 3 years, but we are going on 7 years now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted June 13, 2011 Author Share Posted June 13, 2011 I forgot Nov 1997 too. So thats another one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 13, 2011 Share Posted June 13, 2011 Its been since 2004 for that. 2005 had an advisory event for the interior on Thanksgiving morning but it was low end advisory. Mainly 2-4" with a couple isolated 5" amounts. Going back for high end advisory or low end warning November snow, we have had 2004, 2002, 1995, 1991 (interior only), 1989, 1987, 1986. Its supposed to average about one every 3 years, but we are going on 7 years now. That was a fun storm. I even mustered up a couple inches where I was in Marshfield, while the beach had rain. That night I went out for dinner up in Dedham and they had like 6.5" on the ground. Winter wonderland there. The storm on 11/27/02 had a similar gradient. Of course there are the Nov '87 and '89 storms that are highly anomalous, especially for the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted June 13, 2011 Author Share Posted June 13, 2011 That was a fun storm. I even mustered up a couple inches where I was in Marshfield, while the beach had rain. That night I went out for dinner up in Dedham and they had like 6.5" on the ground. Winter wonderland there. The storm on 11/27/02 had a similar gradient. Of course there are the Nov '87 and '89 storms that are highly anomalous, especially for the coast. I got screwed in the 2004 system, only like 4" or even slightly less. While just southeast got closer to 6" and there were some 7-8" amounts in interior SE MA and N RI. It was still a fun storm for so early in the year. I remember the cold too. It was a powdery snow and not wet at all. Nov 2002 was like that as well. The Nov 1997 storm was very cold too with sleet contamination. But the high was like 27 or something. Really cold for mid November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 13, 2011 Share Posted June 13, 2011 For those with a volcano fetish, the eruptions really haven't blasted into the Stratosphere with any ejecta or SO2. I'm sure some has made it in there (especially the Chilean volcano because the tropopause is lower down there), but we really need an explosive eruption if you want some sort of result for winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted June 13, 2011 Share Posted June 13, 2011 I'd be very pleased....with 1993-94. I'd eat my crow, by as many drinks as I can, and smile alot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted June 13, 2011 Share Posted June 13, 2011 I don't like saying we are "due" because stats are comprised of events that occurred frequently and also events that didn't occur for several or more successive years, but I'm hoping we can get a high end advisory or low end warning snow for November. We haven't had one in a while...not talking about the 1-3" stuff. Agreed. Being farther north, and a deer hunter, I'm a bit greedier for November snow. One might expect to see a storm of 10"+ in 38 Maine Novembers 1973 onward, but my biggest were two 8.5" events, 1974 in BGR and 1989 in Gardiner. Ironically, the four places in Maine where I've lived, BGR, Ft.Kent, Gardiner, New Sharon, have each seen at least one (FK 5) 10"+ storm since 1973, a total of 12 among the 4 stations but none since 1989 at any of them. (I'm using Farmington data, as New Sharon records began in 1993.) Having nothing 10"+ for any of those stations for 21 Novembers is stranger (or more a sign of warmer climate chipping at the shoulder seasons) than my not happening to be in the right place for 38 Novembers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted June 13, 2011 Share Posted June 13, 2011 For those with a volcano fetish, the eruptions really haven't blasted into the Stratosphere with any ejecta or SO2. I'm sure some has made it in there (especially the Chilean volcano because the tropopause is lower down there), but we really need an explosive eruption if you want some sort of result for winter. Its gonna happen, big big blow incoming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted June 13, 2011 Share Posted June 13, 2011 Its gonna happen, big big blow incoming. If it does, alot of my thinking changes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted June 13, 2011 Share Posted June 13, 2011 Its been since 2004 for that. 2005 had an advisory event for the interior on Thanksgiving morning but it was low end advisory. Mainly 2-4" with a couple isolated 5" amounts. Going back for high end advisory or low end warning November snow, we have had 2004, 2002, 1995, 1991 (interior only), 1989, 1987, 1986. Its supposed to average about one every 3 years, but we are going on 7 years now. Best one ever was November '86...I think it was '86. Anyway, flat wave ripped through the upper OV with thunder snow at CLE.... I later learned it had a 40vt max with it.. It was compact and convective looking out that way. It came off the NJ coast during the wee hours of the next morning and absolutely exploded. Many areas in eastern Mass and RI had near bliz for 3 or 4 hours. I remember in Acton the wind gustingto 45 mph with sheets of snow clumps going over to powder... 9" there. Lightning and thunder, too. But many areas had close to 15" over SE Mass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 13, 2011 Share Posted June 13, 2011 Best one ever was November '86...I think it was '86. Anyway, flat wave ripped through the upper OV with thunder snow at CLE.... I later learned it had a 40vt max with it.. It was compact and convective looking out that way. It came off the NJ coast during the wee hours of the next morning and absolutely exploded. Many areas in eastern Mass and RI had near bliz for 3 or 4 hours. I remember in Acton the wind gustingto 45 mph with sheets of snow clumps going over to powder... 9" there. But many areas had close to 15" over SE Mass. Both storms hit se mass hard (Nov '89 and November '87 the Veteran's Day storm). BOS had 10" iirc in the Veteran's Day storm. Edit: there was some mix in some areas especially the Cape before it went to town later that night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 13, 2011 Share Posted June 13, 2011 I actually remember the Veteran's Day storm well. Even I as a very young weenie, was skeptical of snow that early..lol. Proved wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted June 13, 2011 Author Share Posted June 13, 2011 Both storms hit se mass hard (Nov '89 and November '87 the Veteran's Day storm). BOS had 10" iirc in the Veteran's Day storm. 1986 had a good storm too that dumped 14.5" in N Foster RI and like 6-10" across the rest of the interior from metrowest BOS to ORH. The coast itself was too warm for high accumulation. MQE had around a foot too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted June 13, 2011 Share Posted June 13, 2011 I thought important volcanic activity tended to lag some in global effects...so any activity now probably wouldn't max out until after next winter? I guess it's geographic location would make a big diff among other issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 13, 2011 Share Posted June 13, 2011 1986 had a good storm too that dumped 14.5" in N Foster RI and like 6-10" across the rest of the interior from metrowest BOS to ORH. The coast itself was too warm for high accumulation. MQE had around a foot too. I remember that one. My Great Grandmother was buried that day we had the storm. I don't mean to sound morbid, but I remember the snow that day. It was pretty wet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted June 13, 2011 Author Share Posted June 13, 2011 I remember that one. My Great Grandmother was buried that day we had the storm. I don't mean to sound morbid, but I remember the snow that day. It was pretty wet. A big number of our November snows have come in El Nino years so I would probably bet against us breaking the November snow drought this year. But perhaps we buck the trend like 1995 did or 1971 (though that would be a toaster bath for you if we got another storm like that). 1989 was a neutral ENSO too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted June 14, 2011 Share Posted June 14, 2011 I thought important volcanic activity tended to lag some in global effects...so any activity now probably wouldn't max out until after next winter? I guess it's geographic location would make a big diff among other issues. Unsure. But I thought Pinatubo was more immediate? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted June 14, 2011 Share Posted June 14, 2011 I thought important volcanic activity tended to lag some in global effects...so any activity now probably wouldn't max out until after next winter? I guess it's geographic location would make a big diff among other issues. Don't know much about this, but I think IF there would be any effect, a 6 month lag would be sufficient. However, the eruption would need to have been large enough to extend into the stratosphere Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted June 14, 2011 Share Posted June 14, 2011 Unsure. But I thought Pinatubo was more immediate? The major eruption took place in June, 1991. I don't recall any markedly different wx much before early 1993, and the cold bottomed out for NNE in 1/94. How much of that was volcano and how much was broader patterns, I don't know. 11/1986 - if that's the storm of about 11/21, it's one of my weenie laments about Nov snow. We had 4" in Gardiner followed by a moderate (0.4" accretion) ice storm. Ft. Kent, which I'd moved from 13 months earlier, had 21". The big snow awaited my departure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted June 14, 2011 Share Posted June 14, 2011 The major eruption took place in June, 1991. I don't recall any markedly different wx much before early 1993, and the cold bottomed out for NNE in 1/94. How much of that was volcano and how much was broader patterns, I don't know. 11/1986 - if that's the storm of about 11/21, it's one of my weenie laments about Nov snow. We had 4" in Gardiner followed by a moderate (0.4" accretion) ice storm. Ft. Kent, which I'd moved from 13 months earlier, had 21". The big snow awaited my departure. The greatest magnitude cold anomalies following the eruption were during the summer of 1992, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted June 14, 2011 Share Posted June 14, 2011 The greatest magnitude cold anomalies following the eruption were during the summer of 1992, I assume that's worldwide temps, which are a lot more meaningful than when it's cold IMBY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted June 14, 2011 Share Posted June 14, 2011 I assume that's worldwide temps, which are a lot more meaningful than when it's cold IMBY. well both actually. Global temperatures were coldest between July and November 1992. Sep-Oct-Nov featured below normal global temperatures ... the last time that has occurred Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted June 14, 2011 Share Posted June 14, 2011 The major eruption took place in June, 1991. I don't recall any markedly different wx much before early 1993, and the cold bottomed out for NNE in 1/94. How much of that was volcano and how much was broader patterns, I don't know. 11/1986 - if that's the storm of about 11/21, it's one of my weenie laments about Nov snow. We had 4" in Gardiner followed by a moderate (0.4" accretion) ice storm. Ft. Kent, which I'd moved from 13 months earlier, had 21". The big snow awaited my departure. Pinn 's effect globally is heavily science, documented and verified. Those conclusions alone make it tough to argue that the event did not have an effect, also, locally in our quarter-hemisphere --> on our means from 1992-1995/1996 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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