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Winter 2011-2012

ORH_wxman

By ORH_wxman,
in New England

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
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Seriously, when was the last time Boston got a sizable March event? (4"+)

Well technically March 2 2009. We got about 9" in that. There was another storm about a week later that got north of the Pike too. I don't really count the March 2 storm since it occurred so early in the month. St Patty's Day in '07 was the last real event.

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HoarfrostHubb

HoarfrostHubb

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Well technically March 2 2009. We got about 9" in that. There was another storm about a week later that got north of the Pike too. I don't really count the March 2 storm since it occurred so early in the month. St Patty's Day in '07 was the last real event.

I forgot about that 3/2/09 one...we got about 10" or so... Royalston got 12.5, and New Ipswich, NH 13". Right near Zuck

March can give some decent snows, but lately it is mostly frisbee time.

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

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A co-worker of mine is doing his thesis on snowstorm cases where he basically is changing the SST by 1 degree and then running a computer model with this new change. The results have been interesting. Some cases the storm goes a little closer to the coast, but in other cases like Boxing Day 2010, it increases snowfall near the coast. I don't know the degree resolution of the model, but I think it's like a MM5 domain.

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

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I forgot about that 3/2/09 one...we got about 10" or so... Royalston got 12.5, and New Ipswich, NH 13". Right near Zuck

March can give some decent snows, but lately it is mostly frisbee time.

Yeah I got all snow in that, and a good amount. Actually just to my south got a bit more. But that's been about it. We are do for a crazy March, but not sure it happens this year. We may have a shot if the temps out in the ENSO regions start to warm and the atmosphere shifts around, but that may be a stretch.

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weathafella

weathafella

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Yeah I got all snow in that, and a good amount. Actually just to my south got a bit more. But that's been about it. We are do for a crazy March, but not sure it happens this year. We may have a shot if the temps out in the ENSO regions start to warm and the atmosphere shifts around, but that may be a stretch.

That storm came 36 hours after the South End GTG, a somwheat oderiferous affair where we got thrown out of the main area for whoopin' it up over the 0Z runs...lol.

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Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

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That storm came 36 hours after the South End GTG, a somwheat oderiferous affair where we got thrown out of the main area for whoopin' it up over the 0Z runs...lol.

That's when I met all you guys. A great night..lol. I think Barry Burbank was boo'd for lowering snow amounts..lol.

Barry went 3-6 with mixing. We DID boo...lol. He was wrong fwiw...

Classic night, Scooter very interested in the SST stuff, keep us posted?

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

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Euro seasonal forecasts have warmed a bit, but they signal a big temp gradient. They basically bring the NAO to a more + state, but keep western and central Canada in the freezer. This extends towards the northern tier of the US. Looks like warmest temp anomalies are in the southern Plains and se through DJF. It looks like '07-08'ish to me. Also have a strong Aleutian ridge. Again take it FWIW.

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

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Euro seasonal forecasts have warmed a bit, but they signal a big temp gradient. They basically bring the NAO to a more + state, but keep western and central Canada in the freezer. This extends towards the northern tier of the US. Looks like warmest temp anomalies are in the southern Plains and se through DJF. It looks like '07-08'ish to me. Also have a strong Aleutian ridge. Again take it FWIW.

I should add the 850 temps creep a bit above normal as we go into SNE and heights above average..hence '07-'08 look from DJF, Looks gradient like for sure.

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

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Can someone post the 07/08 map that will makes?

Just scroll down.

http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/17011-2010-2011-sne-snowfall-map/page__st__390

I just said it reminded me of '07-'08. I'm not so sure the lower heights are correct because it seems a little too + in the NAO region. If we had more blocking...those forecast maps that I saw (I can't post them) would be great for SNE. At this stage of the game, it's just for sh*ts and giggles.

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Snowstorms

Snowstorms

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I would def. take -1C and run with it...sign me up.

Snowstorms, you have had some solid contributions....nice addition to the forum.

Yeah it would be nice to keep it at that level and agree with your comment on Snowstorms. He's had some nice stuff to post. Afterall, we need all the help we can get in the crappiest subforum on the board.

Agree and best avatar in the forum.

Haha thanks guys :) And the girl in the avatar is hot don't you think :P

But my ex was much more beautiful than her and I miss her :(

The solar minimum has no doubt affected the NAO; the Maunder Minimum also had a very negative NAO, and that was when the index was first observed, I believe by Danish and Scandinavian explorers who noted the cold weather in Europe and the mild conditions for seal and whale hunting near Greenland when they made their long maritime voyages in the North Atlantic during that blocking pattern. It seems that the arctic indices (NAM) tend to become stuck in their negative phases when we see lower solar activity, despite a colder stratosphere. For example, we had a cold stratosphere in 10-11 very much like the 1950-51 winter, and yet the NAO blocking was completely different being deep in the solar minimum.

Having low solar activity combined with a -QBO increases the chance for a SSW and a -NAO. The biggest problem in my mind is the potential for a displaced Aleutian ridge with the PAC side favoring a colder West/Northern Plains and a warmer east with the PV located more over AK/Western Canada, and occasionally retreating to Siberia as the +EPO develops later in the winter.

Based on my calculations, Low Solar Activity implies blocking but East Based favors more than West Based which is good for my case, haha. I think much of Western E. will be in for another hectic Winter season. If the AMO goes negative like some climate models imply that should be very interesting. Could have an impact on the Atlantic Hurricane Season next year and the Arctic Sea ice to a certain extent.

Nina is a b*tch sometimes. That seems to be its mantra where the first two months are cold, and then it finally flexes its muscle.

Yeah it can be. The 1999-2000 La NIna was a very f*cked up La Nina but El Nino's in my opinion are even more worse esp. the strong ones. 2009-10 was the worst f*cked up Winter season I've ever seen. Just look at my snowfall totals that Winter and at the airport (YYZ) it was even drier (20").

Euro seasonal forecasts have warmed a bit, but they signal a big temp gradient. They basically bring the NAO to a more + state, but keep western and central Canada in the freezer. This extends towards the northern tier of the US. Looks like warmest temp anomalies are in the southern Plains and se through DJF. It looks like '07-08'ish to me. Also have a strong Aleutian ridge. Again take it FWIW.

Seems reasonable in my opinion. The warmth across the East seems to widespread but the cold anomalies out West are very reasonable. A Strong Aleutian High correlates well with a -ENSO/-PDO/-QBO Phase. The 2007-2009 La Nina was the best in my experience but it couldn't beat Jan 1999 haha were Toronto got 50" in one month haha and the Mayor called the army. I remember staying home from school for like a week LOL.

BTW latest IRI ENSO summary still seems to warm. Most models still going for ENSO Neutral with one going towards a El Nino, haha.

http://iri.columbia..../SST_table.html

If you look scroll down you can see a combination of all the ENSO forecasts for the past 1-2 years and you can see a majority of the models underestimated last year's Nino Weakening and this year's Nina re-emerging.

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Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

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Scooters employer

- WSI expects the temperatures for the upcoming late fall and winter seasons to lie between the 2008-09 and 2010-11 seasons, but closer to 2008-09

- WSI expects the coldest weather during the first half of winter again this season, with the focus of the winter cold over the north-central/northeastern US

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

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I hope WeatherUnderground keeps providing the Euro this winter!! That would be SIIIICK! Their site would crash everyday at 1pm hahah

I still have no clue how they can do that. They must have money stashed to pay for that. Maybe mob owned..lol. We still have yet to see if it will stick around in the winter, but no question the weenies will crash it.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

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I still have no clue how they can do that. They must have money stashed to pay for that. Maybe mob owned..lol. We still have yet to see if it will stick around in the winter, but no question the weenies will crash it.

I'm still guessing its a trial. But who knows. It comes out pretty fast too...not quite as fast as WSI but not a heck of a lot later.

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