dryslot Posted September 12, 2011 Share Posted September 12, 2011 I have no concerns about a dud here.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted September 15, 2011 Share Posted September 15, 2011 Was just. In DC the past few days. Squirrels very active but relatively thin there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted September 16, 2011 Share Posted September 16, 2011 The GOAK is disturbing.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 16, 2011 Share Posted September 16, 2011 Entire energy field is goin bitter Dec and cold Jan..with normal Feb.. Big winter on the way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted September 16, 2011 Share Posted September 16, 2011 Entire energy field is goin bitter Dec and cold Jan..with normal Feb.. Big winter on the way I'm sensing you're right about this. Incidentally, chill is early this year despite it being transient. iNL in the teens already! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 16, 2011 Share Posted September 16, 2011 We just need to get a November snow...even if it's just a couple of inches. November snows are always special to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 16, 2011 Share Posted September 16, 2011 We just need to get a November snow...even if it's just a couple of inches. November snows are always special to me. Me too, last year was the surprise of the year for me. Got a great feeling after that about winter. All signs point to a great winter for CSNE, far SWSNE is the only question to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted September 16, 2011 Share Posted September 16, 2011 Me too, last year was the surprise of the year for me. Got a great feeling after that about winter. All signs point to a great winter for CSNE, far SWSNE is the only question to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted September 17, 2011 Share Posted September 17, 2011 Winter 2010-11 memory of the day: Nearly 1500 people online at 1am Xmas morning...insane. LOL Sorry for any slowdowns guys. We'll keep getting better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted September 17, 2011 Share Posted September 17, 2011 I don't like how the warm SST anomaly in the West Pacific is being shunted further and further to the SW with colder waters emerging in the GoA. This argues for a less amplified Aleutian ridge, and one that remains further south, which means a vortex could settle into the Bering Strait/Western AK region and cut off our cold air supply. I still think the really cold forecasts are in jeopardy this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted September 17, 2011 Share Posted September 17, 2011 I don't like how the warm SST anomaly in the West Pacific is being shunted further and further to the SW with colder waters emerging in the GoA. This argues for a less amplified Aleutian ridge, and one that remains further south, which means a vortex could settle into the Bering Strait/Western AK region and cut off our cold air supply. I still think the really cold forecasts are in jeopardy this winter. These changes are on a short time scale, influenced by the current pattern. FWIW, it continues to mirror 2008 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 17, 2011 Share Posted September 17, 2011 I just updated the cryo-watch page I started with some status/observations if anyone's interested... Hint, I think the cryo could be our friend again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted September 17, 2011 Share Posted September 17, 2011 I don't like how the warm SST anomaly in the West Pacific is being shunted further and further to the SW with colder waters emerging in the GoA. This argues for a less amplified Aleutian ridge, and one that remains further south, which means a vortex could settle into the Bering Strait/Western AK region and cut off our cold air supply. I still think the really cold forecasts are in jeopardy this winter. Nate, I'm not sure about the last sentence but yes there is reason for concern. The only salvation in my weenie mind is the snapshot of the same point in 2008 which shows similar NPAC ssta. Overall, I like the signs but there are a few caution flags on going completely gung ho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted September 17, 2011 Share Posted September 17, 2011 I don't like how the warm SST anomaly in the West Pacific is being shunted further and further to the SW with colder waters emerging in the GoA. This argues for a less amplified Aleutian ridge, and one that remains further south, which means a vortex could settle into the Bering Strait/Western AK region and cut off our cold air supply. I still think the really cold forecasts are in jeopardy this winter. I think the colder waters in the GOA are because of the Aleutian low that has been in place through most of september Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted September 17, 2011 Share Posted September 17, 2011 Hey Guys, I pretty much only post weather stuff in the MA forum but I would like to get NE opinion on my findings. I've taken a really good look at ENSO data and found a pretty good similarity to the current enso pattern over the last 2 years and it matches up well with the 1988-90 timeframe: http://www.americanw...post__p__962677 I also looked at the PDO index and it does look like we are moving back to a long term -PDO similar to the 1950 - 1980 timeframe: http://www.americanw...post__p__970070 I've also pulled all of the second year Nina and neg neutral ENSO years and ran composite anomoly plots.The persistant -AO/-NAO cycle is probably what I struggle with the most because it's difficult to dig up analog years for second year Ninas with dominant -AO/-NAO pattern. Last year was a good example of a Nina with a strong -AO/-NAO. The winter along the EC didn't behave much at all like a typical Nina. http://www.americanw...post__p__969454 I guess the point I'm trying to make is that every set of analogs I've run composites on has shown a very cold December, slightly above normal Jan, very warm Feb, and an average March. However, I ran composites for winters following a really strong -NAO August and it signals a pretty cold winter all the way around. http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/20084-looking-ahead-to-winter-2011-2012/page__view__findpost__p__960705 I've seen a lot of calls for a cold Jan this winter and I'm curious as to why. What are you guys thinking will be the main drivers for potential cold along the EC this year? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 17, 2011 Share Posted September 17, 2011 Hey Guys, I pretty much only post weather stuff in the MA forum but I would like to get NE opinion on my findings. I've taken a really good look at ENSO data and found a pretty good similarity to the current enso pattern over the last 2 years and it matches up well with the 1988-90 timeframe: http://www.americanw...post__p__962677 I also looked at the PDO index and it does look like we are moving back to a long term -PDO similar to the 1950 - 1980 timeframe: http://www.americanw...post__p__970070 I've also pulled all of the second year Nina and neg neutral ENSO years and ran composite anomoly plots.The persistant -AO/-NAO cycle is probably what I struggle with the most because it's difficult to dig up analog years for second year Ninas with dominant -AO/-NAO pattern. Last year was a good example of a Nina with a strong -AO/-NAO. The winter along the EC didn't behave much at all like a typical Nina. http://www.americanw...post__p__969454 I guess the point I'm trying to make is that every set of analogs I've run composites on has shown a very cold December, slightly above normal Jan, very warm Feb, and an average March. However, I ran composites for winters following a really strong -NAO August and it signals a pretty cold winter all the way around. http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/20084-looking-ahead-to-winter-2011-2012/page__view__findpost__p__960705 I've seen a lot of calls for a cold Jan this winter and I'm curious as to why. What are you guys thinking will be the main drivers for potential cold along the EC this year? The AO/NAO is obviously a cojointed entity when discussing New Englands winter. JMHO but again this year the amount of blocking and intensity will allow enough cold to make for a sweet winter scene. The pinned thread on the front page by HM gives a detailed look at the effects the Pacific and AO has on positioning of the main players. The gradient thread discusses much in detail. Figuring out where exactly the dividing line between awesome and meh is always the toughest part of LR in a NINA -PDO environment. Sustained blocking this winter might be in the cards, if the block is strong enough the MA cashes in, if the SE ridge is strong then the MA has only occasional bouts of real winter. It appears to me that this is CNE NNE's year for a huge winter. The negative PNA rollover ridge favors them to cash in much better than NYC south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 17, 2011 Share Posted September 17, 2011 May I add this LALALALALAALLALALOCK IT UP UNCS We might see another Neg A O winter coming up...Since 1950 Aug. 2011 has the third lowest AO index...all the analogs below had a lower AO value in the winter months..... year...Aug.AO index...Winters low value 1977.....-1.412.....-3.014 Feb... 1964.....-1.207.....-2.084 Feb... 2011.....-1.063.....-??? 1960.....-1.008.....-1.506 Jan... 1950.....-0.851.....-1.928 Dec... 1987.....-0.836.....-1.066 Feb... 1986.....-0.826.....-1.473 Feb... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted September 17, 2011 Share Posted September 17, 2011 May I add this LALALALALAALLALALOCK IT UP UNCS We might see another Neg A O winter coming up...Since 1950 Aug. 2011 has the third lowest AO index...all the analogs below had a lower AO value in the winter months..... year...Aug.AO index...Winters low value 1977.....-1.412.....-3.014 Feb... 1964.....-1.207.....-2.084 Feb... 2011.....-1.063.....-??? 1960.....-1.008.....-1.506 Jan... 1950.....-0.851.....-1.928 Dec... 1987.....-0.836.....-1.066 Feb... 1986.....-0.826.....-1.473 Feb... Thanks Steve, this is a great stat. However, it may be purely anecdotal...sample size suggest we look at it but don't bank on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 17, 2011 Share Posted September 17, 2011 Thanks Steve, this is a great stat. However, it may be purely anecdotal...sample size suggest we look at it but don't bank on it. That is UNcs stat, 60 years of sample. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted September 17, 2011 Share Posted September 17, 2011 That is UNcs stat, 60 years of sample. Major thumpage of both cold and snow. All systems go. Hard Winter dead ahead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted September 17, 2011 Share Posted September 17, 2011 That is UNcs stat, 60 years of sample. But my point is the event stats are limited. A handful of events is all we have. It would be great if we can go back another 60 years and I bet we can but it would take some work. It still doesn't hold up scientifically but it doesn't mean it isn't real. We just need more data. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 17, 2011 Share Posted September 17, 2011 Major thumpage of both cold and snow. All systems go. Hard Winter dead ahead. Very much encouraged by the progression, all natural signs pointing to it also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted September 17, 2011 Share Posted September 17, 2011 Very much encouraged by the progression, all natural signs pointing to it also. I agree despite my concerns with the veracity of the data above. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 17, 2011 Share Posted September 17, 2011 But my point is the event stats are limited. A handful of events is all we have. It would be great if we can go back another 60 years and I bet we can but it would take some work. It still doesn't hold up scientifically but it doesn't mean it isn't real. We just need more data. Agree, 70-71 is again this year in my mind. Let's hope we finally get the March we deserve again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted September 17, 2011 Share Posted September 17, 2011 Early March 1971 had a great storm incoming. All signs pointed to a good old fashioned slow moving bomb crawling up the coast. i was in my 2nd year of op school and serving as a teaching assistant for a lab of first year students. I was facing the window and I remember the burst of OES flurries. I got home really stoked. I then turned on the 6PM TV wx which was all we had 25 years before the internet. Bob Copeland was still in his heyday and a great snow loving met. He uttered the dreaded words..."Rain is racing up the coast" and the low was way too far west. Big disappointment and I think the storm went over ORH with something like a 28.70 pressure. Damn....what a missed opportunity and what a winter stat it could have been! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted September 17, 2011 Share Posted September 17, 2011 The Three Wise Men of the COT are stretching their collective muscle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted September 17, 2011 Share Posted September 17, 2011 Very much encouraged by the progression, all natural signs pointing to it also. I watch this very closely and this year things look remarkable to me. Agree, 70-71 is again this year in my mind. Let's hope we finally get the March we deserve again. 45" March here that season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 17, 2011 Share Posted September 17, 2011 I agree despite my concerns with the veracity of the data above. Here is the correlation with AO state for the last 60 years, all states of AO, the higher reds the higher the correlation to winter temps, if we average a neg AO in the summer then winter will usually rock Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 17, 2011 Share Posted September 17, 2011 Here is the correlation with AO state for the last 60 years, all states of AO, the higher reds the higher the correlation to winter temps, if we average a neg AO in the summer then winter will usually rock This is about as encouraging as it can get for me. Decadal swing in progress, Nina, - PDO, having a real hard time finding negatives this year, precip pattterns continue to favor NE sector of the country. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
okie333 Posted September 17, 2011 Share Posted September 17, 2011 All years where June, July, and August were all negative in both the AO and NAO: Two years that fit the most according to the summer AO and NAO: Honestly, the -NAO in summer does not matter nearly as much as the -AO (+.1 correlation from summer to winter vs. +.35) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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