Winter 2011-2012

[HM]

Well I've been reading lately on the active volcanoes across the North primarily across Iceland and we have a few such as Katla and Hekla. Other eruptions that occurred this year where in Chile and the Volcano in Ethiopia I believe. Lets take Katmai as an example. Erupted in 1912. The following Winters esp 1916-1918 featured blocking across Greenland. For more on this you can read this;

http://www.agu.org/p...0JD014448.shtml

It will also depend how much Sulfur is released and how high into the atmosphere. For example we saw the Eruption last year which may have contributed to one of the lowest AO index's on record. Sure enough of the NAO/AO and weren't susceptible to sustain there negative values and HP anomalies across the Troposphere as the La Nina/+QBO took effect across the north come February-May this year. I suggest reading this paper as well;

http://icecap.us/doc...ECTSCLIMATE.pdf

I didn't ask you for an explanation and a couple of links to a non-peer-reviewed overview and an abstract. I asked you for specific information about this year's activity and it being enough to affect the upcoming winter. Trust me, I've seen these papers and have read the actual peer-reviewed work that needs to be read, so I would suggest you do the same. That second link of yours has major errors in it and contradictions. For starters, El Nino warmth did not get trumped in the early 80s and 90s from volcanism (the graph shows that nicely, contrary to what the author says). You also can't suggest that equatorial volcanoes are directly responsible for the +NAO/AO winter modes during those periods when there were also several other factors at play. I agree that volcanoes are important and should be part of any seasonal assessment but you must appreciate how little we know about their total effects.

You can't tell me that the 1912 eruption was responsible for the cold 4-6 years later with certainty. You can't tell me we had poleward eruptions this year but then tell me we also had equatorial eruptions and expect the total effect on the NAO/AO to be negative. Wouldn't the two cancel out? And this is making the big assumption that any of them actually matter. This is where I wanted you to show me that at least one of them do.

And your discussion about the QBO. Yes I know values and such can differ between 30hpa and 50hpa. I mostly use this chart for the QBO;

This chart is fine and so is using the numbers. I was more or less responding to your comments about the -QBO. We still have deep-layer westerly flow below 30mb and it is quite possible it lingers into the winter or at least hangs onto neutral in the winter. If that's the case, what do you think some of the consequences then might be?

I'm not suggesting were heading for a Dalton Minimum just suggesting the idea. At this point its too early like you've said but the monthly sunspot totals and daily sunspots remain very low for a Solar Max. Despite the Sun in a "M Class Flare" currently, Geomagnetic conditions remain very low then again we've seen huge fluctuations in a Solar Max but I'm just stating that were experiencing Low Solar Activity and the AP index remains very low. If the AP index falls back down to levels back in 2009-2010 that would be very interesting for the NAO/AO. It seems as though the NAO and AO have entered a decadal trend where they remain mostly negative like the 50's-70's.

You are right that we are well on our way to a new grand solar minimum if we keep this up, especially if the next few cycles are weaker. By the way, the sun has produced multiple strong flares, including 2 x-flares and the m-class flares you are referencing. We'll find out soon what the total effects will end up being but this is what happens when the sunspot groups are geoeffective (usually east of the western-limb). It appears a geomag storm is in progress now and looks like one of the strongest so far for cycle 24.

BTW could you tell me if the NAM index and the AO index are closely related? I know NAM is the Northern Angular Momentum but I don't know the differences between the two?

http://xtide.ldeo.co...oster/Torre.pdf

The NAM stands for northern annular modes not angular momentum. It basically is the Arctic Oscillation phenomenon but usually deals with the entire vortex and entire circulation induced by the vortex, not just the tropospheric-end to the vortex.

Good discussion and I hope you don't think I'm coming on strong here. I just like a good debate.

[HM]

There isn't a lot of data as you know...small sample size caveat....but here are the main years that really fit that description:

I used negative enso years with a solidly -QBO for that winter (double digits)...gradient refers to snowflal anomalies, not just raw totals.

1956-1957 (gradient was potent over southern New England...a little weaker than 2007-2008's gradient)

1970-1971 (gradient was very potent over extreme southern New England...a little south of 2007-2008)

1974-1975 (gradient was moderate over SNE/CNE)

1983-1984 (gradient was over the M.A., not all that potent, it was the weakest of the years listed)

2000-2001 (gradient was over northern M.A...there was a secondary gradient over northern half of southern New England)

2007-2008 (gradient was extreme over southern New England...I actually have a map to post for this winter)

Will, I didn't forget about you or this information. I am in the process of revising this list and also making a list of w QBO years and then a myriad of other criteria. So far, early results are pretty cool and may explain why there is an enhanced gradient in the E QBO years. While doing this analysis, I also came across some stratospheric-La Niña analogs to 2011-12 that have some interesting results.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Will, I didn't forget about you or this information. I am in the process of revising this list and also making a list of w QBO years and then a myriad of other criteria. So far, early results are pretty cool and may explain why there is an enhanced gradient in the E QBO years. While doing this analysis, I also came across some stratospheric-La Niña analogs to 2011-12 that have some interesting results.

What a tease you are. lol

[CoastalWx]

What a tease you are. lol

I think he found a surprising min in snowfall over interior ne mass.

[HM]

What a tease you are. lol

I think he found a surprising min in snowfall over interior ne mass.

LOL... I'm going to need you guys to expound on any local snow gradients when I present this information. Some years in the list are gone and some are added etc...

I mainly want to see if there is a large-scale pattern difference--and there just might be.

[CoastalWx]

LOL... I'm going to need you guys to expound on any local snow gradients when I present this information. Some years in the list are gone and some are added etc...

I mainly want to see if there is a large-scale pattern difference--and there just might be.

I'm interested as well. I've been thinking about a few ideas, but I'm not well versed in some of this stuff....I suppose nobody is, but we have theories.

[40/70 Benchmark]

No prob, HM...look forward to your results.

[40/70 Benchmark]

I think he found a surprising min in snowfall over interior ne mass.

I think he found that winter will end in February throughout the next 10 solar cycles.

[CoastalWx]

I think he found that winter will end in February through the next 10 solar cycles.

[ORH_wxman]

I think he found that winter will end in February throughout the next 10 solar cycles.

We're probably going to have another crappy March this season and just when we think it will never snow again in that month, we'll get 60" one of these Marches.

[CoastalWx]

We're probably going to have another crappy March this season and just when we think it will never snow again in that month, we'll get 60" one of these Marches.

I miss a good March. It just makes the pain of our Spring so much better. What's the good of winter ending when it still in the teens at night.

[ORH_wxman]

I miss a good March. It just makes the pain of our Spring so much better. What's the good of winter ending when it still in the teens at night.

Agreed. The Nina analogs are mixed on March...we have 2008, 1971 which were pretty boring in March. Then we have 2001 and 1984 which were monsters (esp interior).

[CoastalWx]

Agreed. The Nina analogs are mixed on March...we have 2008, 1971 which were pretty boring in March. Then we have 2001 and 1984 which were monsters (esp interior).

You're right though....at some point we'll probably have an epic March where the snow on the backside of your hill won't melt until Cinco De Mayo...lol.

[CT Rain]

OT but does anyone know where that NWS map of total rain from Lee and Irene was posted? Wasn't sure if it was in this subforum or on the main forum and I'm looking for it.

Thanks!

[Snowstorms]

I'm not quite sure enough S02 even made it into the Stratosphere with any of these volcanoes. Perhaps in Iceland they may have been a brief release into the Stratosphere as the tropopause there was lower during the time of eruptions, but I don't think we anything much over 35,000ft.

Actually the Iceland Volcano Eruption this year (Grimsvotn) had a ash height peak of about 58,000ft which is around the Tropopause and lower layers of the Stratosphere but some unconfirmed reports said the ash cloud height reached nearly 65,000ft which is well into the Stratosphere. At this point we don't know if it will initiate cooling as we don't know the exact quantity and spread of the S02 but we'll soon find out if it effects the Northern Hemisphere Winter or atleast has some kind of connection to it. The Nabro Volcano on the other hand had a ash height peak of about 47,000-50,000ft but it released the most S02 ever recorded in Satellite History.

http://files.aboveto...54fdc6ae483.jpg

Nabro may have. Not a volcano guy so I don't know how consequential this is.

http://earthquake-re...on-day-1-and-2/

Some unconfirmed reports had Nabro as a VEI6 or VEI7 but I think it may have been a VEI 5.

I didn't ask you for an explanation and a couple of links to a non-peer-reviewed overview and an abstract. I asked you for specific information about this year's activity and it being enough to affect the upcoming winter. Trust me, I've seen these papers and have read the actual peer-reviewed work that needs to be read, so I would suggest you do the same. That second link of yours has major errors in it and contradictions. For starters, El Nino warmth did not get trumped in the early 80s and 90s from volcanism (the graph shows that nicely, contrary to what the author says). You also can't suggest that equatorial volcanoes are directly responsible for the +NAO/AO winter modes during those periods when there were also several other factors at play. I agree that volcanoes are important and should be part of any seasonal assessment but you must appreciate how little we know about their total effects.

You can't tell me that the 1912 eruption was responsible for the cold 4-6 years later with certainty. You can't tell me we had poleward eruptions this year but then tell me we also had equatorial eruptions and expect the total effect on the NAO/AO to be negative. Wouldn't the two cancel out? And this is making the big assumption that any of them actually matter. This is where I wanted you to show me that at least one of them do.

This chart is fine and so is using the numbers. I was more or less responding to your comments about the -QBO. We still have deep-layer westerly flow below 30mb and it is quite possible it lingers into the winter or at least hangs onto neutral in the winter. If that's the case, what do you think some of the consequences then might be?

You are right that we are well on our way to a new grand solar minimum if we keep this up, especially if the next few cycles are weaker. By the way, the sun has produced multiple strong flares, including 2 x-flares and the m-class flares you are referencing. We'll find out soon what the total effects will end up being but this is what happens when the sunspot groups are geoeffective (usually east of the western-limb). It appears a geomag storm is in progress now and looks like one of the strongest so far for cycle 24.

The NAM stands for northern annular modes not angular momentum. It basically is the Arctic Oscillation phenomenon but usually deals with the entire vortex and entire circulation induced by the vortex, not just the tropospheric-end to the vortex.

Good discussion and I hope you don't think I'm coming on strong here. I just like a good debate.

Oh no I'm not bothered. I actually love a good debate, haha.

From the 80's-present we've seen a decline in Global Aerosol activity which is quite significant. Now to be honest with you I am very skeptical about Anthropogenic Global Warming and I know too much C02 isn't good and it can contribute to very limited amounts of warming along with climate sensitivity and such.

Now lets take Pinatubo as an example. It erupted in 1991 and its effects weren't felt in the Winter of 91-92 but the during the Northern Hemisphere summer boreal season of 1992. Tropical Volcanoes tend to affect Global temps. during the Summer boreal season whereas High Lat. Volcanoes tend to affect Global Temps. primarily the Northern Hemisphere Winter season. Now I didn't say 1912 was directly responsible for the extreme NAO/AO values for the following Winters but It may have played a part in the Stratospheric Temperatures across the Arctic but we don't know for sure as we didn't have Satellite back then. A Warm Stratosphere directly over top of the Arctic usually responds to HP anomalies across the Troposphere which builds a -AO/-NAO pattern and this similar method applies to Volcanic Ash. Once it enters the Stratosphere the Sun hits these sulfur particles and they reflect the sunlight back into space thus allowing very little warming to reach the Surface and that continues to warm the Stratosphere and ultimately cooling the Troposphere.

A Westerly Wind in a somewhat -QBO would be interesting. We'll see how the -QBO develops before the Winter presumes across the region but at this point I still think we'll see some form of blocking this Winter despite a La Nina. The CFS seems to be predicting a Strong La Nina which is very robust in my opinion but a Weak-Mod Nina is definitely in the cards. A Easterly QBO interprets the Polar Vertex and this effects the Troposphere warming the Arctic region whereas a Westerly QBO is the opposite, is it not? The QBO is very complicated, yes but we'll see how the La Nina responds.

I'm also watching the PDO as it has been 4-5 years since it turned negative and by now the Earth should be responding to this climatic shift across the Pacific. Could we see a blocking pattern develop like it did in 89 across the Pacific. Could very interesting since 89-90 was a Cold Neutral.

We're probably going to have another crappy March this season and just when we think it will never snow again in that month, we'll get 60" one of these Marches.

Not all La Nina's are bad in March and in fact some are very Golden. 2008 and this year featured above normal snowfall atleast in my region.

[weathafella]

Well HM's gradient thread is a great help....thanks HM! Looks like we may be heading to great times.

[tamarack]

You're right though....at some point we'll probably have an epic March where the snow on the backside of your hill won't melt until Cinco De Mayo...lol.

I thought that might happen in 2001 (48" OG on 3/31) but some 70s-80s in April week 4 took care of that.

Except in Fort Kent, March has been by far the most variable of the 4 major snow months. For my current foothills BY:

1 absolute monster, 2001: 55.5" (Farmington's snowiest March, back thru 1893.)

2 very good, 1999 and 2005: 32.2" and 31.1".

4 within 20% of the 16.9" avg: 2000, 2002, 2007, 2008. (2000, with 13.6", is the median.)

3 well below normal (7.5" to 10.6".)

2 terribles, 2004 and 2006: 3.4" and 2.8"

2010, indescribably bad: 0.6" and mildest by 2.7F.

[CT Rain]

This looks like a Dobbs Ferry winter to me

[Damage In Tolland]

This looks like a Dobbs Ferry winter to me

100 inches in Dobbs Ferry.. 45 inches in Rindge?

[Typhoon Tip]

http://news.blogs.cnn.com/2011/09/12/arctic-ice-levels-hit-historic-low-researchers-say/?hpt=hp_t2 ...I can't find our own thread that covers this so picked this one ... whatever...

anyway, as I was saying to the guys the other night; imo it is less important what the end value is each year and more important what the recovery rate is. That 2ndary differential is what describes the character of the system; if we start recouping TX size areas of ice in 2 day periods in November like we did last year, could be a sign that cold would be available as it was last year during our increble 60" in 45 day deal.

I don't have a problem with HM's gradient ideas; I think the statistical usage is entirely clad. I see this winter as a battel between the background dive in the longer term mode of the AO/NAO against the Pac/ENSO. Right now (as of last check -haha) the latter has me spooked for anticlimatic boredom. But I do think that offset from the N is better now than it was 10 years ago. Interesting....

[weathafella]

This is a bit worrisome...let's see where it goes.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Man, this year could make 4\5 winters that have featured Ninas of at least moderate strength, yet the only one that really failed to produce for many of us was the one el Nino.

When examined from that perspective, a clunker can def. be envisioned.

I'd still bet against it.....at least from MA\CT\RI borders points N.

[Ginx snewx]

Man, this year could make 4\5 winters that have featured Ninas of at least moderate strength, yet the only one that really failed to produce for many of us was the one el Nino.

When examined from that perspective, a clunker can def. be envisioned.

I'd still bet against it.....at least from MA\CT\RI borders points N.

huh?

[40/70 Benchmark]

huh?

What are you so confused about......we have had 3 Ninas of at least mod strength, since 2007 and all have produced.....this one may, too.

[Ginx snewx]

What are you so confused about......we have had 3 Ninas of at least mod strength, since 2007 and all have produced.....this one may, too.

You said a clunker can be envisioned, seemed contrary to your beliefs from our previous discussions.

[40/70 Benchmark]

You said a clunker can be envisioned, seemed contrary to your beliefs from our previous discussions.

Sorry, I was just demonstrating an appreciation for that school of thought.

I had hoped that the last line would have made that clear, but....NBD.

[Damage In Tolland]

I'd bet against a latitude winter anywhere north of NYC. South of there diff story

[CoastalWx]

Sorry, I was just demonstrating an appreciation for that school of thought.

I had hoped that the last line would have made that clear, but....NBD.

I don't really see any glaring signs that it could be a clunker, other than the facts you stated. It's on my mind that it could happen, like we talked about last week on FB...but I'm betting that it's decent.

[HM]

I don't have a problem with HM's gradient ideas; I think the statistical usage is entirely clad. I see this winter as a battel between the background dive in the longer term mode of the AO/NAO against the Pac/ENSO. Right now (as of last check -haha) the latter has me spooked for anticlimatic boredom. But I do think that offset from the N is better now than it was 10 years ago. Interesting....

That thread was just to add some potential ideas/ science to the snowfall gradient anecdotes floating around. It was not intended to be a winter outlook and I was mainly hoping for feedback from Will/others about the years I selected and how the snow gradient behaved.

[Typhoon Tip]

That thread was just to add some potential ideas/ science to the snowfall gradient anecdotes floating around. It was not intended to be a winter outlook and I was mainly hoping for feedback from Will/others about the years I selected and how the snow gradient behaved.

Okay ...what he said

Not than anyone asked - my point is, whether using those data facets for muse or support, or as an actual predictive tool aside (using your means or my rather simple dim-witted method) they seem to bring about the same best fit/scenario either way.

Forget for a moment HM made any thread: "I" see this as an intense gradient up and down the eastern seaboard, period. I could see the lower MA having a comparatively mild winter, while the upper OV to NE to perhaps the mid Jersey latitudes get bombed pretty good with cold leading overrunning/ice storms. In fact, with the warmth in the SE (should this proof well enough...), could be a SWFE enhanced probability in the means, as well. The ridging SE promotes NW tracks initially, but then these run up into confluence anchored by -NAO, and the systems occlude. So you snow hard for 4-6 hours, then go to ZR/R briefly before ending as drizzly flurries before the arctic boundary does the backside dive.

The thing is ... if you are in the business of stem-wound coastal bombs you don't want too much gradient because the mid and u/a dynamics get sheared and damped out in that situation. When the S/W turn S in the Dekotas, if the leading entrance regions of the wind maxes aloft run into a region where the balanced flow is already 70kts or more, the S/W in question can't induce the jet structures necessary for cyclogenesis (respective of sigma levels of course).

Of course, in every predominant mode in the atmosphere you have intervening intervals that are antithetical - none of this is to preclude the possibility of a wind whipped milk shake for the I-95 corridor either. The other thing to consider is that if the NAO were every extremely negative....none of this means a hill of beans.