Winter 2011-2012

[Ginx snewx]

I agree with this statement except for the volcanic part. Why would that activity affect this winter's AO?

Lately, the solar activity has been really picking up but the geomagnetic activity remains very low (although should begin to respond to this upswing in solar activity). We just had two x-class flares. It seems like we are finally coming up out of the unprecedented lows; however, big swings are likely to continue as we ascend toward solar max.

Is it still true the max will be a record low max?

[nzucker]

I agree with this statement except for the volcanic part. Why would that activity affect this winter's AO?

Lately, the solar activity has been really picking up but the geomagnetic activity remains very low (although should begin to respond to this upswing in solar activity). We just had two x-class flares. It seems like we are finally coming up out of the unprecedented lows; however, big swings are likely to continue as we ascend toward solar max.

This shouldn't be so great then, since a -QBO/solar max doesn't produce a SSW, which limits the chances of a -AO/-NAO. Do you think the rise in solar activity is affecting the NAO, the recent for the bounce in recent times?

[ORH_wxman]

This shouldn't be so great then, since a -QBO/solar max doesn't produce a SSW, which limits the chances of a -AO/-NAO. Do you think the rise in solar activity is affecting the NAO, the recent for the bounce in recent times?

Historically a -NAO has happened quite a bit with a -QBO and solar max...but I'm not sure how much it has to do with the solar stuff. I'd think the quieter years would be better. I'm no expert and nobody else has hard proof, but just going on some years...

2000-2001

1981-1982 (well more neutral, but some blocking did occur)

1970-1971

1958-1959

The 1990 max and -qbo failed to produce one, though December 1989 had a massive block but it completely shat the bed in January and February with the biggest +NAO couplet in our records.

But regardless, our solar activity is still very small compared to any of those solar maxes listed.

[nzucker]

Historically a -NAO has happened quite a bit with a -QBO and solar max...but I'm not sure how much it has to do with the solar stuff. I'd think the quieter years would be better. I'm no expert and nobody else has hard proof, but just going on some years...

2000-2001

1981-1982 (well more neutral, but some blocking did occur)

1970-1971

1958-1959

The 1990 max and -qbo failed to produce one, though December 1989 had a massive block but it completely shat the bed in January and February with the biggest +NAO couplet in our records.

But regardless, our solar activity is still very small compared to any of those solar maxes listed.

89-90 was such a schizophrenic winter....record cold in Nov/Dec and then a complete torch. That started a stretch of very warm winters. We didn't see any blocking until 93-94, and that came from the PAC side.

81-82 was a huge winter in the interior of Upstate NY and NE, correct?

00-01 had a weaker Niña than this year, so we may experience a more stout SE ridge in my opinion. You saw that my forecast was pretty warm for the Southeast, but that could be shattered if we have a massive NAO block like December 2010. I do think the uptick in solar activity combined with the -QBO, as well as a more neutral AMO, could limit the periods of NAO blocking we see.

[ORH_wxman]

89-90 was such a schizophrenic winter....record cold in Nov/Dec and then a complete torch. That started a stretch of very warm winters. We didn't see any blocking until 93-94, and that came from the PAC side.

81-82 was a huge winter in the interior of Upstate NY and NE, correct?

00-01 had a weaker Niña than this year, so we may experience a more stout SE ridge in my opinion. You saw that my forecast was pretty warm for the Southeast, but that could be shattered if we have a massive NAO block like December 2010. I do think the uptick in solar activity combined with the -QBO, as well as a more neutral AMO, could limit the periods of NAO blocking we see.

I think the SE ridge will be more noticeable this year too compared to last year even if the Nina isn't as strong. I am definitely not counting on an obscene block again like we saw the first half of last winter.

We know the -QBO and negative ENSO winters produce much larger latitude snowfall gradients...I'm not sure the mechanism behind that, but they have historically proven that to be true. Small sample size is always a concern, but we'll see again this winter if that is the case.

I'd probably lean that way since we know those are favored and the fact that Nina likes a SE ridge. I do think the NAO will average out negative too, but just not as negative as we've seen the past couple winters.

[dryslot]

I think the SE ridge will be more noticeable this year too compared to last year even if the Nina isn't as strong. I am definitely not counting on an obscene block again like we saw the first half of last winter.

We know the -QBO and negative ENSO winters produce much larger latitude snowfall gradients...I'm not sure the mechanism behind that, but they have historically proven that to be true. Small sample size is always a concern, but we'll see again this winter if that is the case.

I'd probably lean that way since we know those are favored and the fact that Nina likes a SE ridge. I do think the NAO will average out negative too, but just not as negative as we've seen the past couple winters.

I hope that is the case this winter and east based as well, The NAO in a strong to extreme negative really hurts us up here further north ala 2010 when we had the block from hell..

[snowNH]

I can't believe football is back and winter is almost here!

[HM]

Is it still true the max will be a record low max?

It is hard to say because comparable solar cycles are not of the modern-era and therefore it is hard to conclude how abnormal cycle 24 is behaving. We know that from a magnetism standpoint, that we have never recorded readings like this. But, in the end, I doubt this ends up being a record, given what has occurred during previous grand minimums. Perhaps someone else with numbers can chime in.

The one thing I want to point out is: there are very very long-term cycles and we don't know the half of it. The sun has been extremely active over the last century in comparison to what we know about previous centuries. This paper tackles the Maunder Minimum but also has great graphs at the bottom that show just how extreme the sun has been recently: http://www.mps.mpg.de/projects/sun-climate/papers/uvmm-2col.pdf

It is going to take more than 1 cycle to see major climate shifts; however, I do believe it is responsible for the extreme blocking in the last few years.

[40/70 Benchmark]

I hope that is the case this winter and east based as well, The NAO in a strong to extreme negative really hurts us up here further north ala 2010 when we had the block from hell..

It wouldn't hurt ne MA to see a hair less blocking, either.

[HM]

This shouldn't be so great then, since a -QBO/solar max doesn't produce a SSW, which limits the chances of a -AO/-NAO. Do you think the rise in solar activity is affecting the NAO, the recent for the bounce in recent times?

Yes, I think solar/geomagnetic activity plays a major role in both short-term and long-term NAO/AO trends.

As for this upcoming winter, don't be so quick to objectify things here. First of all, the stratospheric warming research is a little dated; but more importantly, it was based off data during a very active solar period. I just don't think that research is going to hold up, in regards to solar max ideas, when solar forcing will struggle to reach the lower points of those intense cycles.

At this point, I would say we are currently equivalent to 96-97's activity which was basically that cycle's solar minimum. We are finally ahead of 07-08 through 10-11 but being ahead in this cycle is a joke compared to the last few. Also, cycle 20 (late 60s-early 70s) was relatively weak in comparison to 19, 21-23. During the solar max 70-71 winter with a solid E QBO, a MMW occurred in January. Also, 08-09 showed us, too, that the research of HT has a long way to go. It just isn't as simple as they made it out to be anymore.

[HM]

We know the -QBO and negative ENSO winters produce much larger latitude snowfall gradients...I'm not sure the mechanism behind that, but they have historically proven that to be true. Small sample size is always a concern, but we'll see again this winter if that is the case.

Will, if you can, could you list the years you are using to make that assessment for a stronger snowfall gradient and tell me where this gradient is located. I will try to give you some qualitative feedback on the "whys" of this occurrence, if possible.

[tamarack]

89-90 was such a schizophrenic winter....record cold in Nov/Dec and then a complete torch. That started a stretch of very warm winters. We didn't see any blocking until 93-94, and that came from the PAC side.

81-82 was a huge winter in the interior of Upstate NY and NE, correct?

00-01 had a weaker Niña than this year, so we may experience a more stout SE ridge in my opinion. You saw that my forecast was pretty warm for the Southeast, but that could be shattered if we have a massive NAO block like December 2010. I do think the uptick in solar activity combined with the -QBO, as well as a more neutral AMO, could limit the periods of NAO blocking we see.

Jan 1990 was a torch (about +7F compared to my 13 yr avg after Dec was -14), but Feb not so much, with about +1F IMBY (just south of AUG.) The two months also combined for over 50" snow, including 4 storms 8.5" to 11" and a 5th about 7". Fortunately the mild Jan temps didn't include any SE drenchers to steal the snowpack.

81-82, goooood memories, lots of snow and cold (after a mild but snow-filled Dec) capped by the April blizzard. 00-01 another winner.

[ORH_wxman]

Yes, I think solar/geomagnetic activity plays a major role in both short-term and long-term NAO/AO trends.

As for this upcoming winter, don't be so quick to objectify things here. First of all, the stratospheric warming research is a little dated; but more importantly, it was based off data during a very active solar period. I just don't think that research is going to hold up, in regards to solar max ideas, when solar forcing will struggle to reach the lower points of those intense cycles.

At this point, I would say we are currently equivalent to 96-97's activity which was basically that cycle's solar minimum. We are finally ahead of 07-08 through 10-11 but being ahead in this cycle is a joke compared to the last few. Also, cycle 20 (late 60s-early 70s) was relatively weak in comparison to 19, 21-23. During the solar max 70-71 winter with a solid E QBO, a MMW occurred in January. Also, 08-09 showed us, too, that the research of HT has a long way to go. It just isn't as simple as they made it out to be anymore.

Agreed. Good post. Saying "we have an uptick in solar activity" doesn't mean that much right now considering we started from so low. Our data is generally poor on these things to begin with going back and as you mentioned, simply an increase in sun spots is looking at it one dimensional....given your phrase about low geomagnetic activity continuing. Certainly lagging the sunspot increase anyway.

I posted above some solar max/-QBO winters and most of them saw at least some blocking. There's certainly a lot of reasons we don't understand yet either on why the blocking may have occurred.

[ORH_wxman]

Will, if you can, could you list the years you are using to make that assessment for a stronger snowfall gradient and tell me where this gradient is located. I will try to give you some qualitative feedback on the "whys" of this occurrence, if possible.

There isn't a lot of data as you know...small sample size caveat....but here are the main years that really fit that description:

I used negative enso years with a solidly -QBO for that winter (double digits)...gradient refers to snowflal anomalies, not just raw totals.

1956-1957 (gradient was potent over southern New England...a little weaker than 2007-2008's gradient)

1970-1971 (gradient was very potent over extreme southern New England...a little south of 2007-2008)

1974-1975 (gradient was moderate over SNE/CNE)

1983-1984 (gradient was over the M.A., not all that potent, it was the weakest of the years listed)

2000-2001 (gradient was over northern M.A...there was a secondary gradient over northern half of southern New England)

2007-2008 (gradient was extreme over southern New England...I actually have a map to post for this winter)

[Snowstorms]

I agree with this statement except for the volcanic part. Why would that activity affect this winter's AO?

Lately, the solar activity has been really picking up but the geomagnetic activity remains very low (although should begin to respond to this upswing in solar activity). We just had two x-class flares. It seems like we are finally coming up out of the unprecedented lows; however, big swings are likely to continue as we ascend toward solar max.

High Latitude Volcanoes affect stratospheric temperatures and Winter Northern Hemisphere Temperatures as a result. Depending how high the sulfur particles are released in to the Stratosphere will depend how it will affect weather conditions across the Troposphere. As we all know S02 becomes Sulfate once it reaches the atmosphere and Sulfate tends to reflect sunlight back into space increasing the albedo and leading to cooling across the Troposphere due to negative radiative forcing. This warms the stratosphere and this allows HP anomalies to build across the Troposphere and more so across the Arctic. Depending how much albedo and radiative forcing takes effect depends on the Stratospheric warming and the strength of the HP anomalies across the north.

I did not include this in my Winter outlook but I will do so in my final one.

I think the SE ridge will be more noticeable this year too compared to last year even if the Nina isn't as strong. I am definitely not counting on an obscene block again like we saw the first half of last winter.

We know the -QBO and negative ENSO winters produce much larger latitude snowfall gradients...I'm not sure the mechanism behind that, but they have historically proven that to be true. Small sample size is always a concern, but we'll see again this winter if that is the case.

I'd probably lean that way since we know those are favored and the fact that Nina likes a SE ridge. I do think the NAO will average out negative too, but just not as negative as we've seen the past couple winters.

I think we may see a stronger SE Ridge this Winter than 2010-11 as well. I don't think the blocking will be as extreme as last Winter and I'm focusing mostly on East-Based rather than West Based but if we end up with a pattern like 89-90 that would really suck. The battle between the La Nina and the -QBO would be very interesting. Sure enough a -QBO is great for -ENSO development but as we all know La Nina's usually tend to build LP anomalies across the Troposphere in the North whereas a -QBO builds HP anomalies as it warms the Stratosphere overtop of the Arctic. Would be interesting indeed.

It is hard to say because comparable solar cycles are not of the modern-era and therefore it is hard to conclude how abnormal cycle 24 is behaving. We know that from a magnetism standpoint, that we have never recorded readings like this. But, in the end, I doubt this ends up being a record, given what has occurred during previous grand minimums. Perhaps someone else with numbers can chime in.

The one thing I want to point out is: there are very very long-term cycles and we don't know the half of it. The sun has been extremely active over the last century in comparison to what we know about previous centuries. This paper tackles the Maunder Minimum but also has great graphs at the bottom that show just how extreme the sun has been recently: http://www.mps.mpg.d...s/uvmm-2col.pdf

It is going to take more than 1 cycle to see major climate shifts; however, I do believe it is responsible for the extreme blocking in the last few years.

Thus far Solar Cycle 24 has been closely following the Dalton Minimum;

http://www.openyoureyesnews.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/07/archibald_july2011_solar_fig3.png

Though the sunspots thus far are behaving very unusual. Either it goes up one month or goes down extremely the following month but we have seen a decline in monthly sunspot values this year for a lengthy time period. The AP index remains very low still and the radio flux progression is having a hard time gaining through this year.

This lag effect could have an effect on Solar Cycle 25 and thats if there is one, haha.

[dryslot]

It wouldn't hurt ne MA to see a hair less blocking, either.

No it would not hurt if there was less blocking for your area as well, Last thing we need is a block on roids that keeps all the storms down in the mid atlantic region

[ice1972]

There isn't a lot of data as you know...small sample size caveat....but here are the main years that really fit that description:

I used negative enso years with a solidly -QBO for that winter (double digits)...gradient refers to snowflal anomalies, not just raw totals.

1956-1957 (gradient was potent over southern New England...a little weaker than 2007-2008's gradient)

1970-1971 (gradient was very potent over extreme southern New England...a little south of 2007-2008)

1974-1975 (gradient was moderate over SNE/CNE)

1983-1984 (gradient was over the M.A., not all that potent, it was the weakest of the years listed)

2000-2001 (gradient was over northern M.A...there was a secondary gradient over northern half of southern New England)

2007-2008 (gradient was extreme over southern New England...I actually have a map to post for this winter)

2007-2008 was for MBY.....that winter really shat the bed for me.....I guess last winter made up for it.....please God make September end.....

[Snowstorms]

There isn't a lot of data as you know...small sample size caveat....but here are the main years that really fit that description:

I used negative enso years with a solidly -QBO for that winter (double digits)...gradient refers to snowflal anomalies, not just raw totals.

1956-1957 (gradient was potent over southern New England...a little weaker than 2007-2008's gradient)

1970-1971 (gradient was very potent over extreme southern New England...a little south of 2007-2008)

1974-1975 (gradient was moderate over SNE/CNE)

1983-1984 (gradient was over the M.A., not all that potent, it was the weakest of the years listed)

2000-2001 (gradient was over northern M.A...there was a secondary gradient over northern half of southern New England)

2007-2008 (gradient was extreme over southern New England...I actually have a map to post for this winter)

Hmm....those analogs you've mentioned aren't bad at all for my region.

1956-57, 52.2", slightly above normal temps.

1970-71, 74", below normal temps.

1974-75, 49", slightly above normal temps.

1983-84, 65", much below normal temps.

2000-01, 65.4", below normal temps.

2007-8, 102.8", near normal temps.

So in most cases La Nina's with a slightly negative -NAO/-AO and -QBO are generally preferred in my area without including the Pacific pattern that is.

2007-08 and 2008-09 were amazing Winters.

Normal snowfall in my area is 52".

[Ginx snewx]

It is hard to say because comparable solar cycles are not of the modern-era and therefore it is hard to conclude how abnormal cycle 24 is behaving. We know that from a magnetism standpoint, that we have never recorded readings like this. But, in the end, I doubt this ends up being a record, given what has occurred during previous grand minimums. Perhaps someone else with numbers can chime in.

The one thing I want to point out is: there are very very long-term cycles and we don't know the half of it. The sun has been extremely active over the last century in comparison to what we know about previous centuries. This paper tackles the Maunder Minimum but also has great graphs at the bottom that show just how extreme the sun has been recently: http://www.mps.mpg.de/projects/sun-climate/papers/uvmm-2col.pdf

It is going to take more than 1 cycle to see major climate shifts; however, I do believe it is responsible for the extreme blocking in the last few years.

Thanks bro, great stuff.

[dryslot]

Hmm....those analogs you've mentioned aren't bad at all for my region.

1956-57, 52.2", slightly above normal temps.

1970-71, 74", below normal temps.

1974-75, 49", slightly above normal temps.

1983-84, 65", much below normal temps.

2000-01, 65.4", below normal temps.

2007-8, 102.8", near normal temps.

So in most cases La Nina's with a slightly negative -NAO/-AO and -QBO are generally preferred in my area without including the Pacific pattern that is.

2007-08 and 2008-09 were amazing Winters.

Normal snowfall in my area is 52".

Can we lock it in right now.......

[HM]

High Latitude Volcanoes affect stratospheric temperatures and Winter Northern Hemisphere Temperatures as a result. Depending how high the sulfur particles are released in to the Stratosphere will depend how it will affect weather conditions across the Troposphere. As we all know S02 becomes Sulfate once it reaches the atmosphere and Sulfate tends to reflect sunlight back into space increasing the albedo and leading to cooling across the Troposphere due to negative radiative forcing. This warms the stratosphere and this allows HP anomalies to build across the Troposphere and more so across the Arctic. Depending how much albedo and radiative forcing takes effect depends on the Stratospheric warming and the strength of the HP anomalies across the north.

I did not include this in my Winter outlook but I will do so in my final one.

I think we may see a stronger SE Ridge this Winter than 2010-11 as well. I don't think the blocking will be as extreme as last Winter and I'm focusing mostly on East-Based rather than West Based but if we end up with a pattern like 89-90 that would really suck. The battle between the La Nina and the -QBO would be very interesting. Sure enough a -QBO is great for -ENSO development but as we all know La Nina's usually tend to build LP anomalies across the Troposphere in the North whereas a -QBO builds HP anomalies as it warms the Stratosphere overtop of the Arctic. Would be interesting indeed.

Thus far Solar Cycle 24 has been closely following the Dalton Minimum;

http://www.openyoure..._solar_fig3.png

Though the sunspots thus far are behaving very unusual. Either it goes up one month or goes down extremely the following month but we have seen a decline in monthly sunspot values this year for a lengthy time period. The AP index remains very low still and the radio flux progression is having a hard time gaining through this year.

This lag effect could have an effect on Solar Cycle 25 and thats if there is one, haha.

I'm not sure where to begin...

I am not sure if we have reached the levels of sulfate that could affect this winter's climate. Do you have some information that suggests otherwise? Are you anticipating a bigger eruption before we get to the winter? I have read the work of Robock et al. and understand the concepts but I do think the whole thing is oversimplified. IOW, if the more common parameters that affect the NAO/AO suggest a positive phase, the volcanic effect will be muted or significantly reduced. But if you have any current information that suggests Iceland is affecting the climate, by all means post it.

I wanted to respond to your La Niña/QBO battle comment. First of all, the QBO is an extremely multidimensional force and hardly can be summed up as nicely as we like to make it out to be. Even though, technically, the number at 30mb is negative, at 50mb it is far from it. In fact, it is very positive in the layers that count. So there is absolutely no way you can suggest the -QBO is affecting ENSO. In fact, I can make an argument for the exact opposite assertion. There is no correlation between a -30mb QBO wave and La Niña development. Finally, it seems like you are simplifying the concepts for how each parameter affects the winter and you are assuming that the QBO will be solidly easterly this winter. There have been numerous cases where the 50mb layer has held onto a +QBO, especially at times of low solar forcing.

Finally about the sun: I think it is too early to suggest we are in or headed for a Dalton Minimum. However, this basically answers the original question that this won't be a historically low solar max, since there has been lower periods for sure (particularly the Maunder). You are right about the low Ap index and if it decides to drop off again right at the start of winter, expect another major -AO/NAO block again.

[Snowstorms]

I'm not sure where to begin...

I am not sure if we have reached the levels of sulfate that could affect this winter's climate. Do you have some information that suggests otherwise? Are you anticipating a bigger eruption before we get to the winter? I have read the work of Robock et al. and understand the concepts but I do think the whole thing is oversimplified. IOW, if the more common parameters that affect the NAO/AO suggest a positive phase, the volcanic effect will be muted or significantly reduced. But if you have any current information that suggests Iceland is affecting the climate, by all means post it.

I wanted to respond to your La Niña/QBO battle comment. First of all, the QBO is an extremely multidimensional force and hardly can be summed up as nicely as we like to make it out to be. Even though, technically, the number at 30mb is negative, at 50mb it is far from it. In fact, it is very positive in the layers that count. So there is absolutely no way you can suggest the -QBO is affecting ENSO. In fact, I can make an argument for the exact opposite assertion. There is no correlation between a -30mb QBO wave and La Niña development. Finally, it seems like you are simplifying the concepts for how each parameter affects the winter and you are assuming that the QBO will be solidly easterly this winter. There have been numerous cases where the 50mb layer has held onto a +QBO, especially at times of low solar forcing.

Finally about the sun: I think it is too early to suggest we are in or headed for a Dalton Minimum. However, this basically answers the original question that this won't be a historically low solar max, since there has been lower periods for sure (particularly the Maunder). You are right about the low Ap index and if it decides to drop off again right at the start of winter, expect another major -AO/NAO block again.

Well I've been reading lately on the active volcanoes across the North primarily across Iceland and we have a few such as Katla and Hekla. Other eruptions that occurred this year where in Chile and the Volcano in Ethiopia I believe. Lets take Katmai as an example. Erupted in 1912. The following Winters esp 1916-1918 featured blocking across Greenland. For more on this you can read this;

http://www.agu.org/pubs/crossref/2011/2010JD014448.shtml

It will also depend how much Sulfur is released and how high into the atmosphere. For example we saw the Eruption last year which may have contributed to one of the lowest AO index's on record. Sure enough of the NAO/AO and weren't susceptible to sustain there negative values and HP anomalies across the Troposphere as the La Nina/+QBO took effect across the north come February-May this year. I suggest reading this paper as well;

http://icecap.us/docs/change/HOWVOLCANISMAFFECTSCLIMATE.pdf

And your discussion about the QBO. Yes I know values and such can differ between 30hpa and 50hpa. I mostly use this chart for the QBO;

I'm not suggesting were heading for a Dalton Minimum just suggesting the idea. At this point its too early like you've said but the monthly sunspot totals and daily sunspots remain very low for a Solar Max. Despite the Sun in a "M Class Flare" currently, Geomagnetic conditions remain very low then again we've seen huge fluctuations in a Solar Max but I'm just stating that were experiencing Low Solar Activity and the AP index remains very low. If the AP index falls back down to levels back in 2009-2010 that would be very interesting for the NAO/AO. It seems as though the NAO and AO have entered a decadal trend where they remain mostly negative like the 50's-70's.

BTW could you tell me if the NAM index and the AO index are closely related? I know NAM is the Northern Angular Momentum but I don't know the differences between the two?

http://xtide.ldeo.columbia.edu/~visbeck/nao/poster/Torre.pdf

[40/70 Benchmark]

There isn't a lot of data as you know...small sample size caveat....but here are the main years that really fit that description:

I used negative enso years with a solidly -QBO for that winter (double digits)...gradient refers to snowflal anomalies, not just raw totals.

1956-1957 (gradient was potent over southern New England...a little weaker than 2007-2008's gradient)

1970-1971 (gradient was very potent over extreme southern New England...a little south of 2007-2008)

1974-1975 (gradient was moderate over SNE/CNE)

1983-1984 (gradient was over the M.A., not all that potent, it was the weakest of the years listed)

2000-2001 (gradient was over northern M.A...there was a secondary gradient over northern half of southern New England)

2007-2008 (gradient was extreme over southern New England...I actually have a map to post for this winter)

1957- 76.2"

1971- 73.4"

1975- 57.8"

1984- 70.3"

2001- 75.8"

2008- 73"

I can't believe how consistent those season are....about 10" above normal, except for one relative dud.

[ORH_wxman]

1957- 76.2"

1971- 73.4"

1975- 57.8"

1984- 70.3"

2001- 75.8"

2008- 73"

I can't believe how consistent those season are....about 10" above normal, except for one relative dud.

Well maybe we have a small range of estimating your snowfall total this winter.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Well maybe we have a small range of estimating your snowfall total this winter.

65-75" it is....I'd take that....maybe a March Mauler for once.

[Damage In Tolland]

65-75" it is....I'd take that....maybe a March Mauler for once.

March is over as far as any winter wx. We now have 3 winter wx months. Folks need to realize that

[weathafella]

I'm looking at ssta snapshots at various points in time. The good news is that few of the severe stinkers come up as a match but the years mentioned throughout this thread including 2000-01 and 2007-08 have some validity. Actually, if it weren't for the further east base and reduction in amplitude, 2009-10 matches. But then when you factor in other parameters you add some neutral ENSO years. Either way, this winter will probably be at least half decent. More to come within the next 30 days.

[CoastalWx]

Well I've been reading lately on the active volcanoes across the North primarily across Iceland and we have a few such as Katla and Hekla. Other eruptions that occurred this year where in Chile and the Volcano in Ethiopia I believe. Lets take Katmai as an example. Erupted in 1912. The following Winters esp 1916-1918 featured blocking across Greenland. For more on this you can read this;

http://www.agu.org/p...0JD014448.shtml

It will also depend how much Sulfur is released and how high into the atmosphere. For example we saw the Eruption last year which may have contributed to one of the lowest AO index's on record. Sure enough of the NAO/AO and weren't susceptible to sustain there negative values and HP anomalies across the Troposphere as the La Nina/+QBO took effect across the north come February-May this year. I suggest reading this paper as well;

http://icecap.us/doc...ECTSCLIMATE.pdf

And your discussion about the QBO. Yes I know values and such can differ between 30hpa and 50hpa. I mostly use this chart for the QBO;

I'm not suggesting were heading for a Dalton Minimum just suggesting the idea. At this point its too early like you've said but the monthly sunspot totals and daily sunspots remain very low for a Solar Max. Despite the Sun in a "M Class Flare" currently, Geomagnetic conditions remain very low then again we've seen huge fluctuations in a Solar Max but I'm just stating that were experiencing Low Solar Activity and the AP index remains very low. If the AP index falls back down to levels back in 2009-2010 that would be very interesting for the NAO/AO. It seems as though the NAO and AO have entered a decadal trend where they remain mostly negative like the 50's-70's.

BTW could you tell me if the NAM index and the AO index are closely related? I know NAM is the Northern Angular Momentum but I don't know the differences between the two?

http://xtide.ldeo.co...oster/Torre.pdf

I'm not quite sure enough S02 even made it into the Stratosphere with any of these volcanoes. Perhaps in Iceland they may have been a brief release into the Stratosphere as the tropopause there was lower during the time of eruptions, but I don't think we anything much over 35,000ft.

[Quixotic1]

I'm not quite sure enough S02 even made it into the Stratosphere with any of these volcanoes. Perhaps in Iceland they may have been a brief release into the Stratosphere as the tropopause there was lower during the time of eruptions, but I don't think we anything much over 35,000ft.

Nabro may have. Not a volcano guy so I don't know how consequential this is.

http://earthquake-report.com/2011/06/23/eritrea-nabro-volcano-eruption-from-the-earthquake-swarm-until-the-eruption-day-1-and-2/

[CoastalWx]

Nabro may have. Not a volcano guy so I don't know how consequential this is.

http://earthquake-re...on-day-1-and-2/

Yeah it went high briefly, but I think research claims that it's more the high latitude volcanoes that play a role. I think we want to see VA clouds >20km into the atmosphere.