40/70 Benchmark Posted September 7, 2011 Share Posted September 7, 2011 Nice job nzucker! The thing I disagree with is that I feel that we will see nice blocking this Winter and the ridging will be weaker through December and January and displaced further SW. Hippie, do you think that Virginia could see more snow as a result of this.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 7, 2011 Share Posted September 7, 2011 Q Too bad I didn't live just outside of CON that year, ten feet would be fine with me even if you guys had an extra foot or two on my total. I do remember that seemingly endless train of swfe's. That was awesome. Everyone I knew in MHT was so sick of it and Birving,SnowNH, and I were chucking em im sure. A bit off the winter topic at hand but last night I was out of town and apparently there was a microburst (per Unitil our electric providers recorded message) down the st from my house here in Bow. Power was knocked out from 9PMish till 2AM and when I drove by a local RV dealership there was rvs overturned and I guess 6 or so of them were totally destroyed(was driving and didn't have time to turn around but want to go check it out before it gets cleaned up) so I didn't get the best view. The nws is investigating whether it was a microburst but some of them were thrown 60-90 yards from their parked locations. Cool Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted September 7, 2011 Share Posted September 7, 2011 Absolutely not....at least in this area. Absolutely not what? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted September 7, 2011 Share Posted September 7, 2011 I think we'll see some icing events this winter. I like idea of a lot of low level cold present in Canada. Are you hinting 93-94 esque? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 7, 2011 Share Posted September 7, 2011 Absolutely not what? This winter will absolutely not exceed the 1996 snowfall total I'll bet you 10 dinners... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SoCoWx Posted September 7, 2011 Share Posted September 7, 2011 Hippie, do you think that Virginia could see more snow as a result of this.... At this time, I feel we'll see AN snowfall yes. But it wont be as insanely above normal as last Winter. Maybe more in line with 125% AN or so...instead of 09/10's +175% and last winter's 210%AN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted September 7, 2011 Share Posted September 7, 2011 This winter will absolutely not exceed the 1996 snowfall total <img src='http://208.71.34.143/public/style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/laugh.gif' class='bbc_emoticon' alt='' /> I'll bet you 10 dinners... Obviously I'm not even close to being ready to buy into that theory. As of this writing, I'd say we may achieve 50% above normal snow but the dead ratter potential is high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted September 7, 2011 Author Share Posted September 7, 2011 Are you hinting 93-94 esque? I don't think the Atlantic will look the same. But I wouldn't be shocked if the PAC was similar...at least in the Aleutian to EPO region. I'd expect more of a -PNA though than that year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 7, 2011 Share Posted September 7, 2011 At this time, I feel we'll see AN snowfall yes. But it wont be as insanely above normal as last Winter. Maybe more in line with 125% AN or so...instead of 09/10's +175% and last winter's 210%AN. Last winter featured above normal snowfall in Virginia....news to me.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 7, 2011 Share Posted September 7, 2011 I don't think the Atlantic will look the same. But I wouldn't be shocked if the PAC was similar...at least in the Aleutian to EPO region. I'd expect more of a -PNA though than that year. It's going to be a non analog year, it's the persistence pattern of the non analog. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 7, 2011 Share Posted September 7, 2011 I have absolutely no empirical evidence to support this assertion, but I love the fact that we're seeing so many recurves this season....totally subjective and anecdotal, but it is what it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted September 7, 2011 Author Share Posted September 7, 2011 Last winter featured above normal snowfall in Virginia....news to me.... Southern VA did well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SoCoWx Posted September 7, 2011 Share Posted September 7, 2011 Last winter featured above normal snowfall in Virginia....news to me.... East of I-95 it certainly did. For example, IMBY, our average snowfall is 10". At the end of Winter last go around we had a total of 22.05" which is waay above normal. Much of the tidewater saw AN snowfall last Winter. To add to my thoughts, I think the snow will be more spread out over the state and not confined to the tidewater. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted September 7, 2011 Share Posted September 7, 2011 East of I-95 it certainly did. For example, IMBY, our average snowfall is 10". At the end of Winter last go around we had a total of 22.05" which is waay above normal. Much of the tidewater saw AN snowfall last Winter. To add to my thoughts, I think the snow will be more spread out over the state and not confined to the tidewater. OT but I bet that's not the easiest area to be a hippie. 22.05 for the Tidewater area is borderline epic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted September 7, 2011 Share Posted September 7, 2011 It's really based on how the MJO/tropical convection patterns affect the position of the Aleutian Ridge. As the Aleutian High gets further south, it becomes increasingly probable that the vortex will settle into the Bering Strait. I'd assume the more east-based Niñas such as 70-71 are better than west-based events such as 99-00, where we had the torch pattern with strong southerly flow ahead of a Bering Strait ULL. Given that west-based El Niños like 57-58 and 09-10 usually produce a more favorable PAC pattern than their east-based counterparts such as 72-73, I believe the opposite is true for a La Niña since it's all related to how the SSTs lend to certain thunderstorm/convective complexes. It would work out real well if we see this pattern evolve similar to 70-71, That was the snowiest winter here as well as 07-08 which was another decent pattern for NNE, Yourself moving back north to NH should find it enjoyable...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 7, 2011 Share Posted September 7, 2011 I have absolutely no empirical evidence to support this assertion, but I love the fact that we're securveing so many recurves this season....totally subjective and anecdotal, but it is what it is. It is not anecdotal at all, many disagree with Harts paper which basically states recurves lead to mild winters on the East Coast. The oppos agree the data works up to DC but contend heat transport to Greenland aids in neg NAO development with higher heights inducing higher pressure. No need to go any further than last year to see that in motion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 7, 2011 Share Posted September 7, 2011 It is not anecdotal at all, many disagree with Harts paper which basically states recurves lead to mild winters on the East Coast. The oppos agree the data works up to DC but contend heat transport to Greenland aids in neg NAO development with higher heights inducing higher pressure. No need to go any further than last year to see that in motion. I think it's also a case where perhaps sample size plays a role. I don't have the clout that Hart has, but I'm not sure there is a big correlation to the number of recurves and winter temp anomalies. Perhaps look into when and where these recurves occurred and not necessarily the number of recurves...then also look at ENSO stage and trends during this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 7, 2011 Share Posted September 7, 2011 Southern VA did well. Oh yea....due in large part to the event that FUed Baltimore and DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted September 7, 2011 Share Posted September 7, 2011 A transition to autumn evening brings the snow weenie out in all of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 7, 2011 Share Posted September 7, 2011 It is not anecdotal at all, many disagree with Harts paper which basically states recurves lead to mild winters on the East Coast. The oppos agree the data works up to DC but contend heat transport to Greenland aids in neg NAO development with higher heights inducing higher pressure. No need to go any further than last year to see that in motion. 1995, too.....prob. add this year in several more months. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted September 7, 2011 Share Posted September 7, 2011 1995, too.....prob. add this year in several more months. But that year was quite equal opportunity in the snow dept with DC-PWM cashing in. Incidentally QBO is very close to 1993. So a lot of good signals but not all in synch making this winter a tougher call to me. It could be epic but there's a much larger dud factor possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 7, 2011 Share Posted September 7, 2011 But that year was quite equal opportunity in the snow dept with DC-PWM cashing in. Incidentally QBO is very close to 1993. So a lot of good signals but not all in synch making this winter a tougher call to me. It could be epic but there's a much larger dud factor possible. Right.....I'm not using 1995 as analog......I'm just making the connection between big recurve years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted September 7, 2011 Share Posted September 7, 2011 It would work out real well if we see this pattern evolve similar to 70-71, That was the snowiest winter here as well as 07-08 which was another decent pattern for NNE, Yourself moving back north to NH should find it enjoyable...... Yea, I am loving the move so far...campus is beautiful, faculty is great, they're giving me absolute latitude to plan curriculum and teach what I want (no audits of lesson plans or observations). The kids are a small group of bright boys with social and behavioral problems. I'm told it's OK if I have a few failures in terms of lessons, nothing you'd ever hear in a public school. It's a challenging population to work with but it's really going to be nice to see the successes, and understand that failures are something we move on from, not obsess with or give punitive punishments like public schools, where we suspend kids so the students that need teachers most instead stay home watching cartoons and doing drugs, absurd! I've worked some in public schools so I understand both sides of the equation, but I also see this potentially being a long-term job for me. And the Monadnocks are also a nice area, 80" of annual snowfall, etc. Life is good I guess. The salary is a bit smaller than some of my Middlebury friends at like 20k a year but they do include an apartment, all the utilities/Internet, 3 delicious meals per day, all the school and dorm supplies. So it's not a bad deal. And I'd rather have freedom than money. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted September 7, 2011 Author Share Posted September 7, 2011 Yea, I am loving the move so far...campus is beautiful, faculty is great, they're giving me absolute latitude to plan curriculum and teach what I want (no audits of lesson plans or observations). The kids are a small group of bright boys with social and behavioral problems. I'm told it's OK if I have a few failures in terms of lessons, nothing you'd ever hear in a public school. It's a challenging population to work with but it's really going to be nice to see the successes, and understand that failures are something we move on from, not obsess with or give punitive punishments like public schools, where we suspend kids so the students that need teachers most instead stay home watching cartoons and doing drugs, absurd! I've worked some in public schools so I understand both sides of the equation, but I also see this potentially being a long-term job for me. And the Monadnocks are also a nice area, 80" of annual snowfall, etc. Life is good I guess. The salary is a bit smaller than some of my Middlebury friends at like 20k a year but they do include an apartment, all the utilities/Internet, 3 delicious meals per day, all the school and dorm supplies. So it's not a bad deal. And I'd rather have freedom than money. A crappy winter there will be 50-60" of snow and still decent snow pack. You will have fun this winter regardless if its good for Rindge standards or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted September 7, 2011 Share Posted September 7, 2011 A crappy winter there will be 50-60" of snow and still decent snow pack. You will have fun this winter regardless if its good for Rindge standards or not. Basically the same up here, Can always find snow one way or the other, If its not in my area Northern or Nortwestern Maine will have it so i always can travel to fufill my winter activities, It's just always better to be able to leave from the door yard if at all possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted September 7, 2011 Share Posted September 7, 2011 Basically the same up here, Can always find snow one way or the other, If its not in my area Northern or Nortwestern Maine will have it so i always can travel to fufill my winter activities, It's just always better to be able to leave from the door yard if at all possible. True even for duds like 09-10 (for Maine, at least) and 05-06. That latter saw snowmo clubs in places like The Forks scavenging parking lot snowpiles for patching lower elevation trailheads. Only the St. John Valley region kept good trail conditions all winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted September 7, 2011 Share Posted September 7, 2011 True even for duds like 09-10 (for Maine, at least) and 05-06. That latter saw snowmo clubs in places like The Forks scavenging parking lot snowpiles for patching lower elevation trailheads. Only the St. John Valley region kept good trail conditions all winter. Yeah, What was funny as well back in that same year, One of the local trails that ran along the river in the forks, They had a snow gun that they moved around the trail to make snow.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted September 7, 2011 Share Posted September 7, 2011 Yeah, What was funny as well back in that same year, One of the local trails that ran along the river in the forks, They had a snow gun that they moved around the trail to make snow.. Desperate times = desperate measures. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted September 7, 2011 Share Posted September 7, 2011 Desperate times = desperate measures. And we are hopefull they are distant memories as well.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted September 8, 2011 Share Posted September 8, 2011 Low Solar/Geomagnetic activity results in blocking (East Based) which will be enhanced further by the -QBO and volcanic activity we experienced earlier this year across Iceland. I agree with this statement except for the volcanic part. Why would that activity affect this winter's AO? Lately, the solar activity has been really picking up but the geomagnetic activity remains very low (although should begin to respond to this upswing in solar activity). We just had two x-class flares. It seems like we are finally coming up out of the unprecedented lows; however, big swings are likely to continue as we ascend toward solar max. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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