Winter 2011-2012

[nzucker]

Just get the -NAO in here.

What also is important is the alignment of the Aleutian ridge...if it becomes too flat/horizontal, we get a big vortex settling into the Bering Strait, cutting off our cold air supply. We saw this is 05-06 with a weak Niña where the East saw above average temperatures despite below average heights with a weak +PNA and east-based -NAO. In Winter 10-11, the Aleutian High developed into a -EPO with blocking extending back all the way to Kamchatka, bringing some Siberian cold into North America. This continued to happen later in the winter, for example February was a cold month in New England while the rest of the East became warmer with the NAO moderating and a more -PNA. The better Niña winters like 70-71 and 07-08 (December) all had some form of blocking over AK with the Aleutian Ridge becoming amplified and more vertical in orientation.

[CoastalWx]

Is that what happened last year?

Every year since '07 pretty much.

JMHO, but having a winter more or less end in February isn't cool at all. At least last year we had snow (esp the interior) on April Fools, but we spent a lot of the time watching the snowpack slowly melt fro Groundhog Day on.

[nzucker]

Every year since '07 pretty much.

JMHO, but having a winter more or less end in February isn't cool at all. At least last year we had snow (esp the interior) on April Fools, but we spent a lot of the time watching the snowpack slowly melt fro Groundhog Day on.

The NAO really blew up after the 1/12 Nor'easter....we had the MJO slide into Phase 8 and set up a PNA blocking pattern for the 1/27 Nor'easter, but we were basically done at that point. We had anomalously cold air in Canada with the Kamchatka/Aleutian block, but it never descended very far south with the +NAO, remaining over Northern Quebec and Labrador. March was bitterly cold in Canada due to the somewhat -EPO configuration with very high heights in Siberia, but most places in the East were above average for Feb and around average for March as the -NAO magically reappeared around 3/21, a bit too late for the coastal plain though.

[NYsnowlover]

Every year since '07 pretty much.

JMHO, but having a winter more or less end in February isn't cool at all. At least last year we had snow (esp the interior) on April Fools, but we spent a lot of the time watching the snowpack slowly melt fro Groundhog Day on.

Watching the snow melt last winter was sad, and February last year was a very boring one.

[CoastalWx]

The NAO really blew up after the 1/12 Nor'easter....we had the MJO slide into Phase 8 and set up a PNA blocking pattern for the 1/27 Nor'easter, but we were basically done at that point. We had anomalously cold air in Canada with the Kamchatka/Aleutian block, but it never descended very far south with the +NAO, remaining over Northern Quebec and Labrador. March was bitterly cold in Canada due to the somewhat -EPO configuration with very high heights in Siberia, but most places in the East were above average for Feb and around average for March as the -NAO magically reappeared around 3/21, a bit too late for the coastal plain though.

Yeah the MJO saved January last year. Just goes to show you that it's usually important to have some sort of blocking to the northeast, but it is also possible to have some unforeseen MJO wave help out with the pattern for a few weeks.

But like Will says, we just don't want the Bering Sea vortex of death. That will blowtorch us all.

[BethesdaWX]

What also is important is the alignment of the Aleutian ridge...if it becomes too flat/horizontal, we get a big vortex settling into the Bering Strait, cutting off our cold air supply. We saw this is 05-06 with a weak Niña where the East saw above average temperatures despite below average heights with a weak +PNA and east-based -NAO. In Winter 10-11, the Aleutian High developed into a -EPO with blocking extending back all the way to Kamchatka, bringing some Siberian cold into North America. This continued to happen later in the winter, for example February was a cold month in New England while the rest of the East became warmer with the NAO moderating and a more -PNA. The better Niña winters like 70-71 and 07-08 (December) all had some form of blocking over AK with the Aleutian Ridge becoming amplified and more vertical in orientation.

The Basis of the NAO (+ or -) would be somewhat important though, not just whether it is + or -? In years with lower sun-wind activity, as still is the case at the moment despite the uptick over the past 6-7 months, blocking in the atlantic and pacific tended to be oriented further west than in the higher solar years, at least in the means. I'm not exactly sure how the -QBO will play into propogation in Sudden-Stratospheric Warming events but historically it argues for a deeper -NAO especially in low sun-wind years.

I looked through years that were at least somewhat similar, and though I got 1974/75, I also got the 1967/68, 2008/09, & 2010/11 to a small extent. In the distant past 1917/18 and 1903/04 may be closer matches than anything after 1950, though it is hard to know so weighting those years lightly may me a good move.

[snowNH]

Gonna be tough to top last winter...

Ill be out west Dec.18-25.. expect a 2-3' bomb then

Or maybe a cane

[ORH_wxman]

But like Will says, we just don't want the Bering Sea vortex of death. That will blowtorch us all.

[CoastalWx]

As long as Logan11 gets snow, I'll feel much better.

[dryslot]

That is ugly..

[Snowstorms]

About 3 weeks later...even more Nina-ish. The warm subsurface anomalies have eroded even more and while the cool subsurface anomalies aren't as high in the bullseye, they have spread out much more and basically wiped out the warmth in the eastern regions.

We can expect the anomalies to cool further as the Trade winds continue.

Nice burst of Trade winds coming around 180 degrees so around the Western Nina regions. Subsurface waters have stopped cooling somewhat but have expanded. The latest monthly value for the QBO is negative at -0.49 (30hpa). I expect a full blown -QBO come November/December. Should help with the La Nina much and increase the chances of blocking.

The CFS keeps going nuts too. Something like 80% of the members are going for a strong Nina now. While I think that is definitely too bullish at this time, it makes moderate Nina more believable along with the ocean temp composites.

I think a Weak La Nina is definitely in the cards but I think Moderate is quite possible. The ONI value for JJA came in at 0.0 again.

What also is important is the alignment of the Aleutian ridge...if it becomes too flat/horizontal, we get a big vortex settling into the Bering Strait, cutting off our cold air supply. We saw this is 05-06 with a weak Niña where the East saw above average temperatures despite below average heights with a weak +PNA and east-based -NAO. In Winter 10-11, the Aleutian High developed into a -EPO with blocking extending back all the way to Kamchatka, bringing some Siberian cold into North America. This continued to happen later in the winter, for example February was a cold month in New England while the rest of the East became warmer with the NAO moderating and a more -PNA. The better Niña winters like 70-71 and 07-08 (December) all had some form of blocking over AK with the Aleutian Ridge becoming amplified and more vertical in orientation.

1970-71 was a fairly decent Winter across my region but 2007-08 was the best of the bunch. Over 100" that Winter. A -PNA/-ENSO and -EPO pattern across the Pacific would be ideal for cold air combined with a -PDO that is and on the Atlantic side, a -NAO/-AO and +AMO would be ideal since we're currently in a Warm phase across the Atlantic. I prefer the blocking to be centered across Greenland or further East. Blocking that's too far West like 1950-51 or 2009-10 isn't ideal atleast for me. The ridge back in 2009-10 was far back as Southern Ontario and Maine as the blocking was centered across Northern Labrador and Western Greenland.

What would be interesting to see is the battle between the La Nina and the QBO. Now a -QBO is great for La Nina development as we all know but a -QB0 enhances the chances of blocking as it warms the stratosphere across the Arctic which builds HP's across the Troposphere but on the other hand most La Nina's tend to build LP's across the Troposphere so it will be interesting to see who wins the battle. The La Nina had control over the NAO/AO from February-May earlier this year but once it weakened out the NAO and AO failed to remain positive for lengthy time periods.

I personally think a -NAO and -AO are a definte for December and January but the La Nina may take over come February and March and it may allow for more periods of a +NAO/+AO.

[nzucker]

That is ugly..

It's really based on how the MJO/tropical convection patterns affect the position of the Aleutian Ridge. As the Aleutian High gets further south, it becomes increasingly probable that the vortex will settle into the Bering Strait. I'd assume the more east-based Niñas such as 70-71 are better than west-based events such as 99-00, where we had the torch pattern with strong southerly flow ahead of a Bering Strait ULL. Given that west-based El Niños like 57-58 and 09-10 usually produce a more favorable PAC pattern than their east-based counterparts such as 72-73, I believe the opposite is true for a La Niña since it's all related to how the SSTs lend to certain thunderstorm/convective complexes.

[CoastalWx]

I wouldn't mind some periods of vodka cold too...maybe a little 94 style overrunning with that.

[weathafella]

Oh boy. I honestly don't know whether to **** or go blind. Part of me says this winter will top all others including 1995-96 in the snow department. But the arguments raised about 1950-51 are valid. I would need to get the best ENSO/NAO/solar/PDO/QBO match and roll the dice. But I like how the transition to autumn is evolving and I am still fairly confident that NAO will win the day and be well located. Right now, I am looking with unease at the GOA trend in ssta.

[nzucker]

Oh boy. I honestly don't know whether to **** or go blind. Part of me says this winter will top all others including 1995-96 in the snow department. But the arguments raised about 1950-51 are valid. I would need to get the best ENSO/NAO/solar/PDO/QBO match and roll the dice. But I like how the transition to autumn is evolving and I am still fairly confident that NAO will win the day and be well located.

I don't know, I'm starting to lean warmer as the Niña strengthens, but of course we all know that strength is not always the deciding factor. 55-56 and 70-71 were fairly strong events, with 55-56 being the second strongest Niña in modern records, and both winters were on the cold/snowy side especially for New England. 73-74 is the strongest Niña on record, and it was only slightly above average with temperatures in the Northeast, with several decent snow/ice events including an historic ice storm that hit the NYC metro in Dec 1973. As Chuck has rightly pointed out, the atmospheric forcing is mainly a product of the location of the cold/warm SST anomalies affecting the MJO circulation, with the possible exception of a very strong El Niño like 82-83/97-98 raising global temperatures enough to have an effect on mid-latitude climate.

We also rate to see a favorable NAO given the decadal trend, the AMO, and the summer pattern. The -NAO is of course the most important factor, and it's not impossible to see good blocking in a strong La Niña when you have a -QBO like 70-71, which was a cold winter in the East and an historically snowy/frigid winter for NNE.

[nzucker]

Here is a VERY preliminary look at Winter 11-12 temperatures in my opinion:

I think the EPO will be a solid negative with cold air draining into Canada, but am less confident in a consistent NAO as some models do want to develop a more -AMO. That would really help global temperatures lower but could be an inhibiting factor for the NAO. I think the Southern Plains could see a huge ridge given the Niña tendencies to suppress the STJ, especially in a second year -ENSO event, combined with the historic drought over these areas, especially OK and TX.. This could at time bleed into a traditional SE ridge, which will be checked however by the fact that there's cold air moving into Canada. I think the SE ridge will be weaker than 07-08 but stronger than 70-71.

[CoastalWx]

Here is a VERY preliminary look at Winter 11-12 temperatures in my opinion:

I think the EPO will be a solid negative with cold air draining into Canada, but am less confident in a consistent NAO as some models do want to develop a more -AMO. That would really help global temperatures lower but could be an inhibiting factor for the NAO.

Not bad...good luck.

I'm not an expert forecaster when it comes to the NAO by any means, but I'm a little concerned the blocking could be fleeting or weaker/displaced than an ideal location. However, I'm still relatively optimistic about the winter...it's just that my location makes me think about these things a little more..than say someone in your location. The -QBO is nice to see, but I can't help but have a slight worry in the back of my head.

[nzucker]

Not bad...good luck.

I'm not an expert forecaster when it comes to the NAO by any means, but I'm a little concerned the blocking could be fleeting or weaker/displaced than an ideal location. However, I'm still relatively optimistic about the winter...it's just that my location makes me think about these things a little more..than say someone in your location. The -QBO is nice to see, but I can't help but have a slight worry in the back of my head.

I might amend that forecast based on ENSO and QBO trends, so it's nothing definite. I would probably go colder if I became more confident in a weaker Niña or a more -NAO; I doubt I'd go much warmer because I think we rate to see periods of blocking with cold air to the north. It's unreasonable to think there won't be any stretches of -NAO blocking given the recent trends and the tri-pole pattern in the Atlantic that's been persisting.

Yes, I don't have much to worry about here in Rindge, NH. I think we'll see a solid winter. Although I have bigger things to worry about teaching special needs kids at the age of 23.

[nzucker]

And yes, Scott, I could see a big latitudinal gradient as we saw in -QBO/-ENSO winters like 00-01 and 70-71. I think the winter will be more similar to 00-01/08-09 with the coastal plain down to NYC still seeing some good snows, but NNE could really cash in. I am always hesitant to forecast above average snowfall from PHL south in a powerful Niña as it's very hard for those areas to see major snowfalls with the lack of STJ.

[CoastalWx]

I might amend that forecast based on ENSO and QBO trends, so it's nothing definite. I would probably go colder if I became more confident in a weaker Niña or a more -NAO; I doubt I'd go much warmer because I think we rate to see periods of blocking with cold air to the north. It's unreasonable to think there won't be any stretches of -NAO blocking given the recent trends and the tri-pole pattern in the Atlantic that's been persisting.

Yes, I don't have much to worry about here in Rindge, NH. I think we'll see a solid winter. Although I have bigger things to worry about teaching special needs kids at the age of 23.

I hope the job goes well for you.

I think there will be blocking too...it's pretty convincing that we will see the -NAO appear. I just hope the PAC somewhat cooperates with some nice Aleutian ridging that has helped out too.

[weathafella]

Here is a VERY preliminary look at Winter 11-12 temperatures in my opinion:

I think the EPO will be a solid negative with cold air draining into Canada, but am less confident in a consistent NAO as some models do want to develop a more -AMO. That would really help global temperatures lower but could be an inhibiting factor for the NAO. I think the Southern Plains could see a huge ridge given the Niña tendencies to suppress the STJ, especially in a second year -ENSO event, combined with the historic drought over these areas, especially OK and TX.. This could at time bleed into a traditional SE ridge, which will be checked however by the fact that there's cold air moving into Canada. I think the SE ridge will be weaker than 07-08 but stronger than 70-71.

This forecast looks pretty reasonable to me. The 2nd year moderate Nina Can be a bummer as we all know. However, are we seeing trend lines with historic winters? 2009-10 it was DC-PHL, last winter it was NYC-BOS. Will this one be MHT northward?

[Snowstorms]

It's really based on how the MJO/tropical convection patterns affect the position of the Aleutian Ridge. As the Aleutian High gets further south, it becomes increasingly probable that the vortex will settle into the Bering Strait. I'd assume the more east-based Niñas such as 70-71 are better than west-based events such as 99-00, where we had the torch pattern with strong southerly flow ahead of a Bering Strait ULL. Given that west-based El Niños like 57-58 and 09-10 usually produce a more favorable PAC pattern than their east-based counterparts such as 72-73, I believe the opposite is true for a La Niña since it's all related to how the SSTs lend to certain thunderstorm/convective complexes.

I'm assuming a basin wide La Nina at this point. Sure enough the coldest subsurface waters are currently present across the Eastern regions but the cold waters have spread out across the Western regions where the coldest anomalies are currently present. I think a torch pattern like the 1998-2000 La Nina regime is unlikely. Despite being in a -PDO for about 3-4 years in that time frame we still had a residual +PDO effect left over across the region and neither of those Winters were supportive of any blocking and we had a horrible Pacific pattern with a very Strong SE Ridge.

Oh boy. I honestly don't know whether to **** or go blind. Part of me says this winter will top all others including 1995-96 in the snow department. But the arguments raised about 1950-51 are valid. I would need to get the best ENSO/NAO/solar/PDO/QBO match and roll the dice. But I like how the transition to autumn is evolving and I am still fairly confident that NAO will win the day and be well located. Right now, I am looking with unease at the GOA trend in ssta.

I'm hoping for East Based blocking at this point. Blocking like 2009-10 would be horrible for my region. I barely managed to squeeze a decent storm that Winter. The best storm probably gave me 5.5 inches at best.

Low Solar/Geomagnetic activity results in blocking (East Based) which will be enhanced further by the -QBO and volcanic activity we experienced earlier this year across Iceland.

I don't know, I'm starting to lean warmer as the Niña strengthens, but of course we all know that strength is not always the deciding factor. 55-56 and 70-71 were fairly strong events, with 55-56 being the second strongest Niña in modern records, and both winters were on the cold/snowy side especially for New England. 73-74 is the strongest Niña on record, and it was only slightly above average with temperatures in the Northeast, with several decent snow/ice events including an historic ice storm that hit the NYC metro in Dec 1973. As Chuck has rightly pointed out, the atmospheric forcing is mainly a product of the location of the cold/warm SST anomalies affecting the MJO circulation, with the possible exception of a very strong El Niño like 82-83/97-98 raising global temperatures enough to have an effect on mid-latitude climate.

We also rate to see a favorable NAO given the decade trend, the AMO, and the summer pattern. The -NAO is of course the most important factor, and it's not impossible to see good blocking in a strong La Niña when you have a -QBO like 70-71, which was a cold winter in the East and an historically snowy/frigid winter for NNE.

MEI wise last year's La Nina was the second strongest to 1955-56 with 1973-74 closely behind. Speaking of the MEI, the latest value came in at -0.503 meaning its now in La Nina status once again. Quite the rapid drop but I expected something like this given the consistent +SOI and subsurface cooling.

The updated (July-August) MEI value has dropped back below -0.5 sigma, its lowest value in four months. The March-April MEI had been the last one of 10 in a row to stay below -1 sigma (numerical values are here ). The current rank of the MEI has dropped even more dramatically from 28th last month to 16th this month, back to weak La Niña rankings . The 2010-11 portion of this La Niña event had been classified as strong (top 6 rankings since 1950) from July-August 2010 through March-April 2011, tied with 1975-76 for 2nd place in terms of strong duration, and only behind 1955-56 (15 months).

Stay tuned for the next update (by October 8th, due to travel) to see where the MEI will be heading next. La Niña appears to have staged a more rapid comeback than anticipated last month, although the overall likelihood of a 'double-dip' La Niña has always been higher than 50%, given the reasoning I gave in September 2010: big La Niña events have a strong tendency to re-emerge after 'taking time off' during northern hemispheric summer, as last seen in 2008. On the other hand, this month's return to weak La Niña conditions is not guaranteed to continue into the winter either: the La Niña winter of 1988-89 was followed by a brief interlude of ENSO-neutral conditions in early summer of 1989, then a brief return to La Niña in late summer, and back to ENSO-neutral during the subsequent boreal fall and winter. However, that is the only such case in the last six decades, so La Niña is more likely to continue into the fall than not.

Here is a VERY preliminary look at Winter 11-12 temperatures in my opinion:

I think the EPO will be a solid negative with cold air draining into Canada, but am less confident in a consistent NAO as some models do want to develop a more -AMO. That would really help global temperatures lower but could be an inhibiting factor for the NAO. I think the Southern Plains could see a huge ridge given the Niña tendencies to suppress the STJ, especially in a second year -ENSO event, combined with the historic drought over these areas, especially OK and TX.. This could at time bleed into a traditional SE ridge, which will be checked however by the fact that there's cold air moving into Canada. I think the SE ridge will be weaker than 07-08 but stronger than 70-71.

Amazing outlook, good luck. Bodes well with my Winter outlook

I'm thinking of a moderately strong SE Ridge come February to develop but otherwise a Weak SE Ridge is probable for December-January. Certainly the later part of the Winter will feel more La Nina-ish in my opinion. Last February and March were very below normal in terms of temperatures across Canada.

[dendrite]

This forecast looks pretty reasonable to me. The 2nd year moderate Nina Can be a bummer as we all know. However, are we seeing trend lines with historic winters? 2009-10 it was DC-PHL, last winter it was NYC-BOS. Will this one be MHT northward?

07-08 was pretty much our historic MHT-north winter.

I could go for another solid icing event this winter. I don't want to see Dec 08 destruction, but a legit icing event with low level CAA and a glistening morning landscape would be sweet.

I was just looking back on old obs from Sep 30, 1992 where many locations had their earliest recorded flakes (ORH/CON). I'm starting to get the itch...especially with many trees up here showing some hints of color.

[snowNH]

07-08 was pretty much our historic MHT-north winter.

I could go for another solid icing event this winter. I don't want to see Dec 08 destruction, but a legit icing event with low level CAA and a glistening morning landscape would be sweet.

I was just looking back on old obs from Sep 30, 1992 where many locations had their earliest recorded flakes (ORH/CON). I'm starting to get the itch...especially with many trees up here showing some hints of color.

I don't really remember that winter for some reason. I was in ORH for school, but I still don't remember that. Do you have a storm by storm list for MHT?

[dendrite]

I don't really remember that winter for some reason. I was in ORH for school, but I still don't remember that. Do you have a storm by storm list for MHT?

Do you know MHT or CON official totals in 07-08? thanks.

That was the winter of one SWFE after another. CON had 119.5" which was their 2nd snowiest winter on record (122.0" 1873-74). Mark in Webster and I were around that 11-12ft mark. Other seasonal totals from the GYX area are here:

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/er/gyx/climo/rr6jun08.html

[Ginx snewx]

Here is a VERY preliminary look at Winter 11-12 temperatures in my opinion:

I think the EPO will be a solid negative with cold air draining into Canada, but am less confident in a consistent NAO as some models do want to develop a more -AMO. That would really help global temperatures lower but could be an inhibiting factor for the NAO. I think the Southern Plains could see a huge ridge given the Niña tendencies to suppress the STJ, especially in a second year -ENSO event, combined with the historic drought over these areas, especially OK and TX.. This could at time bleed into a traditional SE ridge, which will be checked however by the fact that there's cold air moving into Canada. I think the SE ridge will be weaker than 07-08 but stronger than 70-71.

Hoping beyond hope you went warmer. LOL

[40/70 Benchmark]

Oh boy. I honestly don't know whether to **** or go blind. Part of me says this winter will top all others including 1995-96 in the snow department. But the arguments raised about 1950-51 are valid. I would need to get the best ENSO/NAO/solar/PDO/QBO match and roll the dice. But I like how the transition to autumn is evolving and I am still fairly confident that NAO will win the day and be well located. Right now, I am looking with unease at the GOA trend in ssta.

Absolutely not....at least in this area.

[ORH_wxman]

07-08 was pretty much our historic MHT-north winter.

I could go for another solid icing event this winter. I don't want to see Dec 08 destruction, but a legit icing event with low level CAA and a glistening morning landscape would be sweet.

I was just looking back on old obs from Sep 30, 1992 where many locations had their earliest recorded flakes (ORH/CON). I'm starting to get the itch...especially with many trees up here showing some hints of color.

I think we'll see some icing events this winter.

I like idea of a lot of low level cold present in Canada.

[SoCoWx]

Nice job nzucker! The thing I disagree with is that I feel that we will see nice blocking this Winter and the ridging will be weaker through December and January and displaced further SW.

[Snow Bow]

That was the winter of one SWFE after another. CON had 119.5" which was their 2nd snowiest winter on record (122.0" 1873-74). Mark in Webster and I were around that 11-12ft mark. Other seasonal totals from the GYX area are here:

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/er/gyx/climo/rr6jun08.html

Too bad I didn't live just outside of CON that year, ten feet would be fine with me even if you guys had an extra foot or two on my total. I do remember that seemingly endless train of swfe's. That was awesome. Everyone I knew in MHT was so sick of it and Birving,SnowNH, and I were chucking em im sure.

A bit off the winter topic at hand but last night I was out of town and apparently there was a microburst (per Unitil our electric providers recorded message) down the st from my house here in Bow. Power was knocked out from 9PMish till 2AM and when I drove by a local RV dealership there was rvs overturned and I guess 6 or so of them were totally destroyed(was driving and didn't have time to turn around but want to go check it out before it gets cleaned up) so I didn't get the best view. The nws is investigating whether it was a microburst but some of them were thrown 60-90 yards from their parked locations.