Winter 2011-2012

[nzucker]

You also want the amped up Aleutian ridge because it will prevent a vortex in the Bering straight region. You can still have a -NAO but a torch if that vortex happens. It happened in 2005-2006...-NAO but a torch because of the bering straight vortex....though the first 3 weeks of December were cold, but that is when we had no vortex there yet. It appeared there in late December and lasted for most of the rest of the winter.

The NAO was also east-based in 05-06.

[ORH_wxman]

The NAO was also east-based in 05-06.

It was in '02-'03 as well, but look at the difference in the PAC.

[nzucker]

It was in '02-'03 as well, but look at the difference in the PAC.

It looks as if the East had below average heights in 05-06 but still finished warmer than average due to the huge vortex over AK/Bering. That cut off the cold air supply in North America, and I remember that winter never really had any arctic air. Even when the Feb 06 blizzard passed, it didn't get that cold. In fact, the snow melted three days later.

02-03 had a more Nino-like Pacific with a +PNA and thus much colder air over the East. That's something more likely to happen with a west-based +ENSO event.

[ORH_wxman]

It looks as if the East had below average heights in 05-06 but still finished warmer than average due to the huge vortex over AK/Bering. That cut off the cold air supply in North America, and I remember that winter never really had any arctic air. Even when the Feb 06 blizzard passed, it didn't get that cold. In fact, the snow melted three days later.

02-03 had a more Nino-like Pacific with a +PNA and thus much colder air over the East. That's something more likely to happen with a west-based +ENSO event.

Yep, '05-'06 from the 5h pattern over the east you would have thought was a cold winter...not even close. Nothing in Canada to advect into here because of that Bering vortex.

You are correct on the '02-'03 PAC pattern...classic Nino with that huge low height anomaly S of the Aleutians and a WC ridge/+PNA. It just goes to show you that the PAC has a big influence on how a -NAO will affect our temperatures.

[dryslot]

Careful there, Hans. You're going to rile up the masses.

Unless Ct wants to get riled up, I was talkiing the southern areas on Wills map.........

[nzucker]

Yep, '05-'06 from the 5h pattern over the east you would have thought was a cold winter...not even close. Nothing in Canada to advect into here because of that Bering vortex.

You are correct on the '02-'03 PAC pattern...classic Nino with that huge low height anomaly S of the Aleutians and a WC ridge/+PNA. It just goes to show you that the PAC has a big influence on how a -NAO will affect our temperatures.

It's amazing how much a torch that was compared to 500mb...but you can see the high heights bleeding across Canada and cutting off our cold air source, which is particularly important for New England where you need arctic airmasses in winter to stay below average. Sort of like 09-10....VT had average heights at 500mb but was +1 for December, +4 for January, and +5 for February. If you have an unfavorable EPO, you'll torch because of the lack of low level cold airmasses despite a decent set-up at H5.

[ORH_wxman]

It's amazing how much a torch that was compared to 500mb...but you can see the high heights bleeding across Canada and cutting off our cold air source, which is particularly important for New England where you need arctic airmasses in winter to stay below average. Sort of like 09-10....VT had average heights at 500mb but was +1 for December, +4 for January, and +5 for February. If you have an unfavorable EPO, you'll torch because of the lack of low level cold airmasses despite a decent set-up at H5.

A negative EPO advects cold air south from the arctic into the CONUS better than any other pattern.

[nzucker]

A negative EPO advects cold air south from the arctic into the CONUS better than any other pattern.

We saw the benefits of that in 93-94 where we had a huge -EPO block with a monster PV over Hudson Bay. Most of the below average heights were to our north in the Canadian Sub-Arctic, but we experienced well below normal temperatures. The low level cold won out, but the lack of a -NAO that winter still screwed the Mid-Atlantic.

[weathafella]

We saw the benefits of that in 93-94 where we had a huge -EPO block with a monster PV over Hudson Bay. Most of the below average heights were to our north in the Canadian Sub-Arctic, but we experienced well below normal temperatures. The low level cold won out, but the lack of a -NAO that winter still screwed the Mid-Atlantic.

Not exactly Nate. While your area had a cold and decent snow water, it was spectacular here with BOS booking spectacular cold Jan/Feb along with 96.3 inches of snow at Logan. The mid Atlantic actually had slightly below normal snow but it was mighty cold there as well. That winter for me is my adult benchmark. EPO ruled and models consistently had us way warmer.

[powderfreak]

Pretty soon we will be tracking snow levels and flakes.... can't wait for that time of year to come. First the hills, then the valleys.

Good ol' tight snow lines... mere feet between snow cover and brown landscape.

[H2Otown_WX]

How does 1950-51 stack up as an analog for this winter? ONI data would indicate that it was a weak to maybe moderate La Nina that was during a -PDO phase as well. I'm hoping we don't see anything like this temperature-wise though:

[ORH_wxman]

How does 1950-51 stack up as an analog for this winter? ONI data would indicate that it was a weak to maybe moderate La Nina that was during a -PDO phase as well. I'm hoping we don't see anything like this temperature-wise though:

It could be a possible analog. It was a horrible winter here though. So we def don't want it again. It had a -NAO even but still was awful. The -NAO was kind of fake though...more of a flattish ridge SW of Greenland and the Aleutian ridge was flat as well which allowed low height anomalies into the EPO region. We haven't really seen this type of pattern in a while...'96-'97 had a somewhat similar Atlantic but not Pacific.

[H2Otown_WX]

It could be a possible analog. It was a horrible winter here though. So we def don't want it again. It had a -NAO even but still was awful. The -NAO was kind of fake though...more of a flattish ridge SW of Greenland and the Aleutian ridge was flat as well which allowed low height anomalies into the EPO region. We haven't really seen this type of pattern in a while...'96-'97 had a somewhat similar Atlantic but not Pacific.

What was the total at ORH that winter? Interesting that it was bad even with the -NAO, looks like there was some good cold in the far upper MW and MT. Wouldn't we want a ridge a little farther northeast of the Aleutians to get a really good EPO cold dump?

[ORH_wxman]

What was the total at ORH that winter? Interesting that it was bad even with the -NAO, looks like there was some good cold in the far upper MW and MT. Wouldn't we want a ridge a little farther northeast of the Aleutians to get a really good EPO cold dump?

33.0"

And yes, we'd want it further North and east to get the good EPO cold dump. The upper plains still saw enough of it to get cold departures but clearly it wasn't enough to work eastward.

[H2Otown_WX]

33.0"

And yes, we'd want it further North and east to get the good EPO cold dump. The upper plains still saw enough of it to get cold departures but clearly it wasn't enough to work eastward.

Oh wow. That's bad I bet you're glad you weren't around for that one. Is that in the top 3 lowest of all-time?

[Snowstorms]

We saw the benefits of that in 93-94 where we had a huge -EPO block with a monster PV over Hudson Bay. Most of the below average heights were to our north in the Canadian Sub-Arctic, but we experienced well below normal temperatures. The low level cold won out, but the lack of a -NAO that winter still screwed the Mid-Atlantic.

January 1994 was very cold across my region. Several degrees below normal with 30" of snow and near record breaking low temperature of -23.8F.

That Winter despite being cold/snowy in January was fairly lame with below normal snowfall for the other 2-3 months.

How does 1950-51 stack up as an analog for this winter? ONI data would indicate that it was a weak to maybe moderate La Nina that was during a -PDO phase as well. I'm hoping we don't see anything like this temperature-wise though:

I included 1950-51 in my Winter outlook since it was a second year La Nina and it featured a deeply negative PDO like this year.

http://weatherintoronto.blogspot.com/2011/09/my-preliminary-winter-outlook-2012.html

[ORH_wxman]

Oh wow. That's bad I bet you're glad you weren't around for that one. Is that in the top 3 lowest of all-time?

No, not that bad but its probably top 10 or 12. Top 3 are 21.2" in 1954-1955, 24.6" in 1936-1937, and 24.9" in 1994-1995 (which I experienced). #5 is 28.1" in 1988-1989 which I also experienced. So while I've experienced some great ones, I certainly paid some dues as well.

[nzucker]

It could be a possible analog. It was a horrible winter here though. So we def don't want it again. It had a -NAO even but still was awful. The -NAO was kind of fake though...more of a flattish ridge SW of Greenland and the Aleutian ridge was flat as well which allowed low height anomalies into the EPO region. We haven't really seen this type of pattern in a while...'96-'97 had a somewhat similar Atlantic but not Pacific.

50-51 did follow a fairly strong Niña in 49-50, so it is definitely an analog: second year Niña, blocking over Greenland and towards Eastern Canada, -PDO/cold phase, etc.

If you look at the pattern, the NAO was too far SW and cut off the cold air, a bit similar to how the blocking bled into New England during 09-10 and helped torch us.

Here is the map:

[ORH_wxman]

Some pretty cold subsurface anomalies appearing now. The warm subsurface anomalies were over +4 not too long ago.

About 3 weeks later...even more Nina-ish. The warm subsurface anomalies have eroded even more and while the cool subsurface anomalies aren't as high in the bullseye, they have spread out much more and basically wiped out the warmth in the eastern regions.

[CoastalWx]

It's on its way. Hopefully we can get it more east based or from going too moderate.

[ORH_wxman]

It's on its way. Hopefully we can it more east based or from going too moderate.

The CFS keeps going nuts too. Something like 80% of the members are going for a strong Nina now. While I think that is definitely too bullish at this time, it makes moderate Nina more believable along with the ocean temp composites.

[Ginx snewx]

The CFS keeps going nuts too. Something like 80% of the members are going for a strong Nina now. While I think that is definitely too bullish at this time, it makes moderate Nina more believable along with the ocean temp composites.

Just get the -NAO in here.

[ORH_wxman]

Just get the -NAO in here.

Well we've certainly seen it. August came in largely negative again making for a very -NAO summer in totality. This was actually the most -NAO summer we've seen out of the past 4 summers which all were big -NAO summers.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Well we've certainly seen it. August came in largely negative again making for a very -NAO summer in totality. This was actually the most -NAO summer we've seen out of the past 4 summers which all were big -NAO summers.

I'd like to see a flip to a predominantly positive state for the next 2 months.

[ORH_wxman]

I'd like to see a flip to a predominantly positive state for the next 2 months.

That historically is ideal...however as we saw last year, it never switched and just went straight through the first half of winter until it finally broke during the 1/12 Archambault event.

[CoastalWx]

The teleconnections seem to want to drop the NAO negative again down the road...the weeklies do too. We just can't sustain a +NAO right now, for a prolonged period of time.

[ORH_wxman]

The teleconnections seem to want to drop the NAO negative again down the road...the weeklies do too. We just can't sustain a +NAO right now, for a prolonged period of time.

I see this as a good thing considering what has happened the last 3 years. Having the NAO struggle to go positive has been a persistent theme and if it continues, then that should bode well for winter.

[40/70 Benchmark]

That historically is ideal...however as we saw last year, it never switched and just went straight through the first half of winter until it finally broke during the 1/12 Archambault event.

I see this as a good thing considering what has happened the last 3 years. Having the NAO struggle to go positive has been a persistent theme and if it continues, then that should bode well for winter.

I def. hear that...agreed. I'd just like to get a +period out of the way because it's unnerving awaiting the snap of the rubber band lol......we may also be finally able to avoid a truncation of the winter season, if that were to be the case.

[CoastalWx]

I def. hear that...agreed. I'd just like to get a +period out of the way because it's unnerving awaiting the snap of the rubber band lol......we may also be finally able to avoid a truncation of the winter season, if that were to be the case.

Truncation stinks.

[NYsnowlover]

Truncation stinks.

Is that what happened last year?