40/70 Benchmark Posted June 13, 2011 Share Posted June 13, 2011 Yeah temps now, don't have me worried about next winter yet. Remember how fast the snow built back up in Siberia after Moscow incinerated last summer?? Also, I wonder if the +NAO we had for a while help flush some ice out of the areas like the Fram Strait. I think the cryosphere and sea ice are just too malleable to be considered viable indicators at this early juncture...have to wait until about mid Oct to seriously consider them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted June 13, 2011 Author Share Posted June 13, 2011 I think the cryosphere and sea ice are to just too malleable to be considered viable indicators at this early juncture...have to wait until about mid Oct to seriously consider them. Yeah last year we had piss poor snow cover/ice cover anomalies in September only to see it rebound to above normal in October. October snow cover is the month with the highest correlation to the winter AO state and colder than normal conditions over N.A. Recent Octobers back to 2007 have actually done well in the snow cover department with only 2008 stinking up the joint, but it didn't same to make one iota of difference for us in the 2008-2009 winter which is mostly remembered by us for its frequent (and above avg) snows and below average temperatures. Its just one small piece of the puzzle with many other pieces more important. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted June 13, 2011 Share Posted June 13, 2011 No. You were worried. I'll eventually have time and dig up the evidence. You are too young for these types of mental lapses. Take ginko daily...it may help. I briefly was worried in June but it was fleeting. I haven't had much time to sift through eastern's threads but I found one from Oct. 25th in which I said "Great discussion guys. I'm unwavering in my call for a very snowy Winter here and pts north. I think we'll benefit greatly from the battle of warm vs. cold that will set up just to the south.If i lived NYC south I'd be quite anxious." I have only made it back to August but I found this gem from you posted on August 16th, speaking to me, taunting me actually. "You'll be in a race with Boston." Some race.lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted June 13, 2011 Share Posted June 13, 2011 I briefly was worried in June but it was fleeting. I haven't had much time to sift through eastern's threads but I found one from Oct. 25th in which I said "Great discussion guys. I'm unwavering in my call for a very snowy Winter here and pts north. I think we'll benefit greatly from the battle of warm vs. cold that will set up just to the south.If i lived NYC south I'd be quite anxious." I have only made it back to August but I found this gem from you posted on August 16th, speaking to me, taunting me actually. "You'll be in a race with Boston." Some race.lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted June 13, 2011 Share Posted June 13, 2011 I miss Winter. This summer is so cool I can't even argue with Blizz whether or not I'll hit 80, or even 70.lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted June 13, 2011 Share Posted June 13, 2011 I briefly was worried in June but it was fleeting. I haven't had much time to sift through eastern's threads but I found one from Oct. 25th in which I said "Great discussion guys. I'm unwavering in my call for a very snowy Winter here and pts north. I think we'll benefit greatly from the battle of warm vs. cold that will set up just to the south.If i lived NYC south I'd be quite anxious." I have only made it back to August but I found this gem from you posted on August 16th, speaking to me, taunting me actually. "You'll be in a race with Boston." Some race.lol What was your total? I was ahead of you until mid February.......unheard of. You suck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 13, 2011 Share Posted June 13, 2011 What was your total? I was ahead of you until mid February.......unheard of. You suck. He had more snow than Mt Washington...amazing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 13, 2011 Share Posted June 13, 2011 I think the cryosphere and sea ice are just too malleable to be considered viable indicators at this early juncture...have to wait until about mid Oct to seriously consider them. At this stage...sea ice is more of a useful argument for the people with a climate change fetish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted June 13, 2011 Share Posted June 13, 2011 2006-2007 winter would be pretty nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted June 13, 2011 Share Posted June 13, 2011 What was your total? I was ahead of you until mid February.......unheard of. You suck. No you weren't.lol See my sig for details. I love you despite your lashing out at me.lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 13, 2011 Share Posted June 13, 2011 2006-2007 winter would be pretty nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted June 13, 2011 Share Posted June 13, 2011 I think a few would agree that if we get off to a slower start...that's fine if we can get an active February and March. I love snowy Decembers, but having things come to a halt in February and March, is getting annoying. very solid late winter for interior, especially. if you KNEW we were in for a bad winter this year, you might take 06-07 and run...plus there was a decent wind storm in Nov or Dec, iirc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 13, 2011 Share Posted June 13, 2011 very solid late winter for interior, especially. if you KNEW we were in for a bad winter this year, you might take 06-07 and run...plus there was a decent wind storm in Nov or Dec, iirc. I know it was good for you, but it sucked for a loft of us south of the NH border..amd especially this area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted June 13, 2011 Share Posted June 13, 2011 I know it was good for you, but it sucked for a loft of us south of the NH border..amd especially this area. hybrid 10-11 and 06-07...neverending cold and snow Dec-April. I just hope it isn't a complete failure, <30" up here would be epic disaster and far worse than 06, obviously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 13, 2011 Share Posted June 13, 2011 hybrid 10-11 and 06-07...neverending cold and snow Dec-April. I just hope it isn't a complete failure, <30" up here would be epic disaster and far worse than 06, obviously. I know we've been somewhat spoiled over the last several years. Even '09/'10 was awful here..just normal to a little below. I'm not sure if I could envision a winter like last one...simply because of stats, but you never know. Maybe it's a winter of vast swings in temp and ptype. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted June 13, 2011 Share Posted June 13, 2011 I know we've been somewhat spoiled over the last several years. Even '09/'10 was awful here..just normal to a little below. I'm not sure if I could envision a winter like last one...simply because of stats, but you never know. Maybe it's a winter of vast swings in temp and ptype. The October 09 snow was pretty neat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 13, 2011 Share Posted June 13, 2011 The October 09 snow was pretty neat. October snows are always cool. I had over 2" of paste in October 2005 (during the day of all things). I remember going to a Halloween party and having to brush my car off. The snow was dynamically driven by an ULL to the east. It actually changed to rain at the tail end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted June 13, 2011 Share Posted June 13, 2011 October snows are always cool. I had over 2" of paste in October 2005 (during the day of all things). I remember going to a Halloween party and having to brush my car off. The snow was dynamically driven by an ULL to the east. It actually changed to rain at the tail end. I liked the Early Nov storm last year, totally unexpected, all of CT got snow. I jackpotted too. Probably the last time I am the first one on the board to hit the 2 inch mark. I drew a line on my shed when last winters snow was at 38 inches depth, still amazing to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted June 13, 2011 Share Posted June 13, 2011 Yet another volcano erupting, cool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted June 13, 2011 Share Posted June 13, 2011 how did 06-07 get into the analog discussion? Not much resemblance to anything going on right now. 08-09 is a very good analog to follow for developments in the Pacific. 93-94 is a good match to the stratosphere Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted June 13, 2011 Author Share Posted June 13, 2011 how did 06-07 get into the analog discussion? Not much resemblance to anything going on right now. 08-09 is a very good analog to follow for developments in the Pacific. 93-94 is a good match to the stratosphere '08-'09 might be a very good ENSO match (though this year may not get quite as cold in ENSO)...though the qbo will be the opposite...but that year had a big MMW regardless IIRC which may have caused the frigid January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted June 13, 2011 Share Posted June 13, 2011 Thinking a warm winter with little snow. A much needed break after last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted June 13, 2011 Author Share Posted June 13, 2011 Thinking a warm winter with little snow. A much needed break after last year. Time to lock in '93-'94 now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted June 13, 2011 Share Posted June 13, 2011 Time to lock in '93-'94 now. Maybe 98-99 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted June 13, 2011 Author Share Posted June 13, 2011 Maybe 98-99 You already used that analog for last winter. You should try '99-'00 this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted June 13, 2011 Share Posted June 13, 2011 yeah ... go with the best analog of desire. how about... like last year, 'sept it starts 2 weeks before x-mass and then we don't get butt-boned between feb 10 and the end of march. i think the PDO is a good match Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted June 13, 2011 Author Share Posted June 13, 2011 yeah ... go with the best analog of desire. how about... like last year, 'sept it starts 2 weeks before x-mass and then we don't get butt-boned between feb 10 and the end of march. i think the PDO is a good match I'm going with '76-'77 but with twice as much snow. The cold should be very similar though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted June 13, 2011 Share Posted June 13, 2011 You already used that analog for last winter. You should try '99-'00 this year. Yes, agreed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted June 13, 2011 Share Posted June 13, 2011 '08-'09 might be a very good ENSO match (though this year may not get quite as cold in ENSO)...though the qbo will be the opposite...but that year had a big MMW regardless IIRC which may have caused the frigid January. That MMW did nothing for us. The frigid January was a product of a strong MJO wave moving through the western Pacific. The MMW occurred in late January and resulted in the AO tumbling off for a few days in early February, and then we proceeded to have an incredibly driest, mild, and boring three weeks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted June 13, 2011 Author Share Posted June 13, 2011 That MMW did nothing for us. The frigid January was a product of a strong MJO wave moving through the western Pacific. The MMW occurred in late January and resulted in the AO tumbling off for a few days in early February, and then we proceeded to have an incredibly driest, mild, and boring three weeks Ahhh, I recalled incorrectly then. Seems like we can count on huge January busts though in cold ENSO recently regardless of the reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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