weathafella Posted September 2, 2011 Share Posted September 2, 2011 I was onboard for another good winter long before you waffled from your 1991 stance, but I'll bet against this trumping last season. If you would like to bet on that, then I'm <i>all</i> ears.... How about if we put a number on it. Give me a few more weeks but for now I would say 60+ for me, 80+ for you. We'll go official by late month/early Oct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted September 2, 2011 Share Posted September 2, 2011 Wow 1999-00....awful. But remember, we tripled the 1998-99 snow total last winter. Hey I'll take 75 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted September 2, 2011 Share Posted September 2, 2011 Give me 100"+ and i will be fine Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted September 2, 2011 Author Share Posted September 2, 2011 Give me 100"+ and i will be fine lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted September 2, 2011 Share Posted September 2, 2011 Give me 100"+ and i will be fine Now I can say that realistically... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted September 2, 2011 Share Posted September 2, 2011 Using the analogs that match up with this possible pattern i will go with 120", SWFE...FTW... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 2, 2011 Share Posted September 2, 2011 I wish I could forget them. Though Phil was making naked snow angels in '98-'99. It wasn't that bad for the south shore either. '99-'00 was deplorable. No it wasn't, but it was easily forgettable. I missed getting 2' by 30 miles, and 12" of fluff disappear in hours after the Jan OES event, so 24" right there were vanished. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted September 2, 2011 Share Posted September 2, 2011 '07-'08 had an insane snowfall gradient that year from south to north. '70-'71 was actually very similar. Both were very solid moderate Ninas (almost low end strong) and I'm not sure we'll reach the strength of those events this year. I'd favor weaker right now. Once again, my measurements are quite a bit lower than what this map is showing for that season, just like 2008-2009. What gives? Where do you get these maps anyway? Do you make them yourself? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted September 2, 2011 Author Share Posted September 2, 2011 Using the analogs that match up with this possible pattern i will go with 120", SWFE...FTW... I do not think those stronger Nina analogs will work out like '07-'08 and '70-'71 (at least yet), but I'd def be worried about being south this winter. Those -QBO/Nina combos tend to make that a problem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted September 2, 2011 Author Share Posted September 2, 2011 Once again, my measurements are quite a bit lower than what this map is showing for that season, just like 2008-2009. What gives? Where do you get these maps anyway? Do you make them yourself? I make those maps...the value closest to you is the Woodbury coop which unfortunately went out of commission in 2009. But most of them are based on spotter reports and other coops. Either you were in an unlucky spot, measured poorly (missed a storm or two), or there was a huge gradient I missed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted September 2, 2011 Share Posted September 2, 2011 I make those maps...the value closest to you is the Woodbury coop which unfortunately went out of commission in 2009. But most of them are based on spotter reports and other coops. Either you were in an unlucky spot, measured poorly (missed a storm or two), or there was a huge gradient I missed. Hmmm..I wish I had spotter training. They came to my school but I had class I should have skipped. I know we discussed in the past compaction at the end of a storm and how that can have an effect on your total if you only measure after all the snow has fallen. This year I'm going to try to be more accurate by using the official method. I measured 35" in 2007-2008 which is a good 10" or more less than what you depicted here. I suppose it's possible I'm that unlucky but more than likely it's a result of my poor technique. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 2, 2011 Share Posted September 2, 2011 I'd like to see Ray get more coastal front exhaust...just looking up into the sky and watching the atmosphere seemingly choke and spit out random dendrites here and there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted September 2, 2011 Share Posted September 2, 2011 I do not think those stronger Nina analogs will work out like '07-'08 and '70-'71 (at least yet), but I'd def be worried about being south this winter. Those -QBO/Nina combos tend to make that a problem. In those years that i mentioned were we in a Mod-Strong Nina? I was basing it off of weak neutral Nina, Have not really followed this post from the beginning as just getting back on the board from the summer hiatus... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted September 2, 2011 Share Posted September 2, 2011 Using the analogs that match up with this possible pattern i will go with 120", SWFE...FTW... And if you get 120" mainly from SWFE, I'll get 140"+, unlike last winter when your BY outperformed the foothills. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted September 2, 2011 Share Posted September 2, 2011 And if you get 120" mainly from SWFE, I'll get 140"+, unlike last winter when your BY outperformed the foothills. True, Typically the SWFE and Miller B's are what brings the snows here, Miller A's are a crap shoot for us up here as they tend to end up east of the cape more often then not before they reach our lat.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted September 2, 2011 Share Posted September 2, 2011 True, Typically the SWFE and Miller B's are what brings the snows here, Miller A's are a crap shoot for us up here as they tend to end up east of the cape more often then not before they reach our lat.. FTFY. I figure a 10% shot at getting anything noteworthy from a Miller A. When I lived in Ft. Kent I could count the A's with good snows on the thumbs of one hand, maybe having a remainder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted September 2, 2011 Share Posted September 2, 2011 FTFY. I figure a 10% shot at getting anything noteworthy from a Miller A. When I lived in Ft. Kent I could count the A's with good snows on the thumbs of one hand, maybe having a remainder. If that, We miss far more then we get or we end up fringed at best, Let the mid atlantic have them... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allenson Posted September 2, 2011 Share Posted September 2, 2011 True, Typically the SWFE and Miller B's are what brings the snows here, SWFEs are a local specialty here too. Don't really like them though as it's often kind of a wet snow, capped with sleet--hard to push, plow & shovel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted September 2, 2011 Share Posted September 2, 2011 SWFEs are a local specialty here too. Don't really like them though as it's often kind of a wet snow, capped with sleet--hard to push, plow & shovel. Yes it is for you guys as well, Awfull hard to get coastals out your way unless they are inland runners 1 would think, I would have to rain for you to snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted September 2, 2011 Author Share Posted September 2, 2011 In those years that i mentioned were we in a Mod-Strong Nina? I was basing it off of weak neutral Nina, Have not really followed this post from the beginning as just getting back on the board from the summer hiatus... Yes, '70-'71 and '07-'08 were high end moderate Ninas...not too far from strong Nina. If we reach moderate Nina strength this winter, I'd doubt it would be as strong as those two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted September 2, 2011 Share Posted September 2, 2011 Yes, '70-'71 and '07-'08 were high end moderate Ninas...not too far from strong Nina. If we reach moderate Nina strength this winter, I'd doubt it would be as strong as those two. That would be good for most all of New England it seems, I know we did well on those 2 winters but you guys if i remember right in the 07-08 winter not as well, Actually, That map you put out portrays that quite well as there is a sharp gradient between above avg snow and avg to slightly below south of us here, But my guess would be in 70-71 probably not as well either but have seen no data to back it up for your area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted September 2, 2011 Author Share Posted September 2, 2011 That would be good for most all of New England it seems, I know we did well on those 2 winters but you guys if i remember right in the 07-08 winter not as well, Actually, That map you put out portrays that quite well as there is a sharp gradient between above avg snow and avg to slightly below south of us here, But my guess would be in 70-71 probably not as well either but have seen no data to back it up for your area '70-'71 was slightly better further south in SNE...but the gradient was very similar. Maybe push it south about 20-30 miles in '70-'71. '07-'08 was a pretty good winter for BOS-ORH points northward. PVD-BDL line and southward kind of got the shaft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted September 2, 2011 Share Posted September 2, 2011 '70-'71 was slightly better further south in SNE...but the gradient was very similar. Maybe push it south about 20-30 miles in '70-'71. '07-'08 was a pretty good winter for BOS-ORH points northward. PVD-BDL line and southward kind of got the shaft. Yeah, Lot of the lows tracked over those further southern areas which really placed yourself and us in the better snows being north of the storm track, With the way the pattern looks to be setting up synoptically, Are you seeing that we may see a winter that is similar to what we saw in 07-08 but maybe a little more favorable over those areas to the south because of a weak to weak mod Nina? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted September 2, 2011 Share Posted September 2, 2011 Yeah, Lot of the lows tracked over those further southern areas which really placed yourself and us in the better snows being north of the storm track, With the way the pattern looks to be setting up synoptically, Are you seeing that we may see a winter that is similar to what we saw in 07-08 but maybe a little more favorable over those areas to the south because of a weak to weak mod Nina? Careful there, Hans. You're going to rile up the masses. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted September 2, 2011 Author Share Posted September 2, 2011 Yeah, Lot of the lows tracked over those further southern areas which really placed yourself and us in the better snows being north of the storm track, With the way the pattern looks to be setting up synoptically, Are you seeing that we may see a winter that is similar to what we saw in 07-08 but maybe a little more favorable over those areas to the south because of a weak to weak mod Nina? '07-'08 had a strong +NAO...I don't think that will happen this winter, but obviously nothing is set in stone. I think coastal storms would be more prevalent than in that winter which was almost all SWFE...except that one coastal that hit the Cape in late January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allenson Posted September 2, 2011 Share Posted September 2, 2011 Yes it is for you guys as well, Awfull hard to get coastals out your way unless they are inland runners 1 would think, I would have to rain for you to snow Yep, with coastals, when they come close enough to flip it to rain as far inland as Manchester, Rochester, L-A, etc, is when we do well here. Otherwise, it's just dusting to a few light, dry inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted September 2, 2011 Share Posted September 2, 2011 That would be good for most all of New England it seems, I know we did well on those 2 winters but you guys if i remember right in the 07-08 winter not as well, Actually, That map you put out portrays that quite well as there is a sharp gradient between above avg snow and avg to slightly below south of us here, But my guess would be in 70-71 probably not as well either but have seen no data to back it up for your area The gradients thru much of New England were huge for both 70-71 and 07-08, but that ended in "central NNE". 07-08 saw the snow totals just get bigger as one continued north, while 70-71 was a good winter in CAR but nothing all that special, 135", about 120% of avg. In 07-08 they had 198", breaking their old record by 15". IIRC, Quebec City had more (well over 200") but just missed their all time total. My NNJ records are lost, but my memories (and stats from nearby COOPs) point to near or slightly above normal snowfall, with nothing remotely close to a KU. NYC had only 15.5", so the gradient continued to Central Park but the inland spots over 500' did a little better. One other difference was the frigid January and early February 1971. In most places in the Northeast, 07-08 averaged above normal for met winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted September 2, 2011 Author Share Posted September 2, 2011 The gradients thru much of New England were huge for both 70-71 and 07-08, but that ended in "central NNE". 07-08 saw the snow totals just get bigger as one continued north, while 70-71 was a good winter in CAR but nothing all that special, 135", about 120% of avg. In 07-08 they had 198", breaking their old record by 15". IIRC, Quebec City had more (well over 200") but just missed their all time total. My NNJ records are lost, but my memories (and stats from nearby COOPs) point to near or slightly above normal snowfall, with nothing remotely close to a KU. NYC had only 15.5", so the gradient continued to Central Park but the inland spots over 500' did a little better. One other difference was the frigid January and early February 1971. In most places in the Northeast, 07-08 averaged above normal for met winter. '70-'71 had a -NAO so it was colder in general in the east. '07-'08 had a big +NAO which allowed the SE ridge to beef up a little more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 2, 2011 Share Posted September 2, 2011 If we can get the big ridge into the Aleutians like we did last year with even a somewhat -NAO...the chances for a good winter will probably be there. I'm just a little worried of a beefy se ridge and blocking that isn't sustainable, but '07-'08 had a +NAO so it's not always going to be a bad thing. I would like to see that Aleutian ridge, because it could also teleconnect to some ridging in the NAO region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted September 2, 2011 Author Share Posted September 2, 2011 If we can get the big ridge into the Aleutians like we did last year with even a somewhat -NAO...the chances for a good winter will probably be there. I'm just a little worried of a beefy se ridge and blocking that isn't sustainable, but '07-'08 had a +NAO so it's not always going to be a bad thing. I would like to see that Aleutian ridge, because it could also teleconnect to some ridging in the NAO region. You also want the amped up Aleutian ridge because it will prevent a vortex in the Bering straight region. You can still have a -NAO but a torch if that vortex happens. It happened in 2005-2006...-NAO but a torch because of the bering straight vortex....though the first 3 weeks of December were cold, but that is when we had no vortex there yet. It appeared there in late December and lasted for most of the rest of the winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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